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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
| Message from Hezbollah leader: Israel can breathe out, but not for long |
| 2023-11-05 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Kirill Semenov [REGNUM] Israel, Hamas and other players in the Middle East and beyond were eagerly awaiting Friday's speech by Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah , his first since the war began on October 7. Nasrallah delivered a fiery but carefully calibrated speech in which he threatened both Israel and the United States, which he believed were "directly responsible" for supporting Tel Aviv in its ongoing "aggression in the Gaza Strip." However, when the speech ended, it became a disappointment for many, and the leadership of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) was able to “exhale,” albeit temporarily. His bottom line was clear: at least for now, Hezbollah would not be involved in the war beyond the current border skirmishes. “This is a signal to the Israelis that at this point they [Hezbollah]. — Approx. ed.] are not trying to do anything big , ” Aaron Zelin , an expert on jihadist movements at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told TIME . “From an Israeli point of view, they [Israelis. — Approx. ed.] are probably breathing a sigh of relief, even though the situation on the northern border is more tense than in 2006 ,” Zelin said. At that time, the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel escalated into the Second Lebanon War. Unjustified expectations and real help The leader of Hezbollah also did not live up to the expectations of many of those who were counting on the declaration of total war on Israel by this group. Instead, Sheikh Nasrallah quite rightly recalled that Hezbollah began its war with Israel on October 8, the day after Hamas' Operation Al-Aqsa Deluge. He said neither the Lebanese Shiite movement nor other members of the Iran-led anti-Israel Axis of Resistance were aware of the Palestinian group's plan to carry out the Oct. 7 attack. Nasrallah also warned that regional war is a "real possibility" and stressed that Hezbollah's goal is to end the war in the Gaza Strip and ensure victory for Hamas. In this context, Nasrallah noted that his militia is already involved in unprecedented cross-border fighting with Israel along the Lebanese-Israeli border, and threatened further escalation. It is significant that on November 2, the day before its leader spoke, Hezbollah announced that it had simultaneously attacked 19 Israeli positions along the border. At the same time, the group used a drone to hit the Israeli barracks at the Shebaa farm. This provoked a “widespread” retaliation from the IDF, the Israeli military said. The number of killed Hezbollah fighters, as of November 3, reached 57 people. Israeli officials continue to take the threat from Hezbollah seriously. Retired Lt. Gen. Gadi Eizenkot , former head of the IDF and current member of the government's military cabinet, toured Israel's northern border on Thursday, the day before Nasrallah's speech, to assess the IDF's preparedness to repel Hezbollah attacks. or, conversely, offensive operations against this Lebanese Shiite group. The Israeli military itself emphasized that in Gaza they operate only “at 40% of their capabilities, because all eyes are turned to the north.” Therefore, Sheikh Nasrallah’s words regarding Hezbollah’s contribution to supporting Hamas were completely true. He, in particular, stated that Hezbollah forced a third of the logistical forces of the Israeli army to be pulled to the northern border (which generally coincides with Israeli estimates), and noted that 43 Jewish settlements on the border were evacuated due to attacks from sides of Lebanon. "Red Lines" Hezbollah's decision to escalate further depends on whether Israel launches a larger attack on Hezbollah itself in Lebanon and how the IDF operation in the Gaza Strip develops. Sheikh Nasrallah added that he considers “the possibility of the Lebanese front escalating into a large-scale battle” realistic . According to him, a preemptive IDF strike on Lebanon would be Israel’s “biggest mistake” in its entire existence. In this case, it should be borne in mind: Hezbollah expects that if Israel can completely crush Hamas, it will deploy all its forces against Hezbollah in order to ride the wave of success to end the “terrorist threat” along the entire perimeter of the borders. That is why Nasrallah spoke about what could happen when the war in Gaza ends and Israel again turns all its attention to Lebanon, where Hezbollah’s missile capabilities are concentrated, posing a great danger to the Jewish state. The containment strategy that has been in place for seventeen years is likely no longer valid now that Israel suffered huge losses on October 7th. Therefore, for the Shiite Lebanese movement, the issue of preserving Hamas still remains a “red line”, since this Palestinian group attracts the military power of Israel, preventing it from being deployed against Lebanon. A Lebanese official who spoke with Hezbollah told The New York Times on November 1 that the Shiite movement cited the threat of the actual destruction of Hamas as its "red line" for widespread intervention. According to him, Hezbollah is ready to begin full-scale hostilities if Hamas is “on its last legs.” Also, according to Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib , who maintains regular contacts with Hezbollah, if the carnage in the Gaza Strip intensifies or Israel intensifies its attacks on Lebanon, the movement will be forced to respond. IDF ground operation and the “fog of war” On the other hand, this is still far from happening. This is also indicated by Nasrallah’s own words that Hamas is successfully resisting the IDF’s ground invasion and causing it heavy losses. According to the Militarist TG channel, on the same day alone, when the Hezbollah leader made an appeal, Hamas destroyed two Merkava tanks, four infantry fighting vehicles and one bulldozer in the east of Khan Yunis and north-west Gaza. Thus, the total number of destroyed Merkava tanks reached 59. “Hamas is demonstrating fighting ability and fighting spirit. It has the potential to cause damage to us, and we will do everything to reduce it ,” a senior Israeli military official told the American publication Al-Monitor. In turn, as military expert and author of numerous publications in leading American and British media John Lechner told IA Regnum , “in America, few experts think that the ground operation [IDF. — Approx. ed.] will be successful.” At the same time, assessments of the final goals of the Israeli operation have become much more modest. In particular, according to Al-Monitor's source, Israel will seek to eliminate all Hamas military and political leadership inside and outside the Gaza Strip, destroy as many al-Nukhba commandos as possible, and deny Hamas the ability to control the Gaza Strip. Fighting at the current level of intensity is expected to last one to two months, with the IDF turning to other tactics - periodic raids and airstrikes - to crush what remains of Hamas' infrastructure. “None [of the Israeli officials. — Approx. ed.] has no intention of controlling the Gaza Strip. This is not on the agenda ,” a senior Israeli diplomatic source told Al-Monitor. It is therefore likely that Hezbollah's intervention may not be necessary if the red line is never crossed and Hamas maintains its presence in the Gaza Strip. On the other hand, Hezbollah is ready to transition to full-scale hostilities. Hezbollah Resources On the other hand, it is not entirely clear what else Hezbollah can do to ensure that its actions are regarded as “full-scale” rather than “limited.” Israel has fortified positions on the border with Lebanon, and Hezbollah does not have the capabilities to launch a large-scale offensive. If the group withdraws all its forces from Syria and calls all reservists “under arms,” it will be able to field 50 thousand fighters. This is clearly not enough to try to break through Israel's fortified positions in a frontal attack. Therefore, intensifying efforts most likely implies the infiltration of DRGs in large numbers and increased launching of missiles from Lebanese territory. However, to actively engage the DRG, Hezbollah has only 2,500 fighters from the assault battalions, the so-called “Radwan Forces”; the remaining units are, in fact, mobilized reservists. The second factor can also only be temporary. Hezbollah has a large arsenal of missiles, the massive launches of which Israeli air defense may not be able to cope with. According to various estimates, the group has from 100 to 150 thousand missiles, including ammunition for MLRS. Including tens of thousands of short-range (up to 40 km), thousands of medium-range (up to 75 km) and hundreds of long-range (200–700 km). The range criteria here are, of course, determined taking into account local specifics. Hezbollah recently launched a project to upgrade its arsenal in terms of accuracy and, according to recent estimates, has between 20 and 200 rockets with an accuracy of 50 meters. However, the time period of such pressure will also be short, since the group’s missile arsenal will soon be exhausted. At the same time, the factor of increasing American military presence in the region should not be underestimated. In the event of an escalation of hostilities by Hezbollah, the United States could use its aircraft and cruise missiles to hit the group’s military targets in Syria. By doing this, they will prevent the concentration of its forces in Lebanon, on the one hand, and, on the other, they will minimize threats to American bases in Syria itself. But this scenario could turn out to be even more escalatory and lead to the expansion of full-scale military operations of the Axis of Resistance into Syria and Iraq. |
| Posted by:badanov |
| #1 |
| Posted by: Grom the Reflective 2023-11-05 13:34 |