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| Four toad viper scenarios. Which outcome of the Zaluzhnyada is better for Russia? |
| 2024-01-31 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Gevorg Mirzayan [REGNUM] Throughout the evening of January 29, the political segment of the Internet followed the real Zaluzhniada. First, a number of Ukrainian media outlets, citing former Ukrainian deputies and their internal sources in Zelensky’s office, wrote that Commander-in-Chief Valeriy Zaluzhny had been dismissed from his post. Then, for several hours, everyone waited for official confirmation or denial of this news from Bankova. And in the president’s office at that time, apparently, a real internal drama was taking place with bargaining, persuasion and threats. The actors were the Zelensky administration, Zaluzhny himself (who refused to write “of his own free will”), as well as external sponsors, some of whom supported the president, and some of whom stood on the side of the commander in chief. In the end, it turned out that Valery Zaluzhny still won a tactical victory in this round. Zelensky was unable to push through his dismissal. Bye. At the same time, there is no doubt that the head of the Kyiv regime will definitely repeat the approach to the projectile. After all, he views the popular commander-in-chief as a real threat to his own power and, most importantly, his main role in the Ukrainian tragedy (which became the pinnacle of the career of the actor from Krivoy Rog). And in this regard, the question is: what scenario for the further development of Zaluzhniada is most beneficial for Russia? There are four scenarios in total. First: Zelensky fires Zaluzhny. Second: Zelensky removes Zaluzhny. Third: Zaluzhny removes or fires Zelensky. And the fourth option is the continuation of the conflict between the president and the commander in chief. The first option for Russia is the most optimal. Yes, it would seem that Vladimir Zelensky will thus become omnipotent and omnipotent, consolidate all power in his hands and get rid of his political rival. But omnipotence in Ukraine is punished very harshly. The local president has always been not so much the head of state as a moderator in showdowns between oligarchic groups. And when the president concentrated excessive power in his hands, he immediately received a powerful internal faction uniting all his rivals. This is what happened with Yanukovych (to whom the Ukrainian oligarchy responded with Maidan), this happened with Poroshenko (to whom the oligarchy responded to Zelensky) and this is what will happen now with the current head of state. Especially considering the volumes of foreign money that are flowing through his fingers now and which neither Poroshenko nor Yanukovych have even dreamed of. He won't become omnipotent either. Simply because the real owners of Ukraine - the Americans - will not forgive Zelensky for such self-will. Zaluzhny is their business partner, a conductor of their interests and, ultimately, a balancer for Zelensky. The resignation of the commander-in-chief to train the British could lead to the Americans punishing not their NATO partners, but Zelensky through an even greater reduction in funding. Finally, Zelensky will not get rid of his political rival either. Resignation from the post of commander-in-chief will automatically transform Valery Zaluzhny from a general into a politician, around whom the entire opposition dissatisfied with Zelensky will concentrate and on whom the Americans will bet. This means that internal squabbling in Ukraine or even forcing Zelensky to hold presidential elections is inevitable. Thus, the dismissal of Zaluzhny will weaken the Ukrainian president and cause chaos and confusion in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This means it will make it easier for Russia to liberate this territory. The second scenario, in which Zelensky will remove Zaluzhny physically (by blaming the Russian missile or Russian intelligence), is slightly less beneficial for Russia. Here, of course, Zaluzhny the politician will not appear, however, on the other hand, the Ukrainian opposition will be much more radical. She will understand that Zelensky, in his thirst for power, crosses any red lines, which means he must be stopped urgently. Americans will probably come to the same conclusion. It is unlikely that they will be able to remove Zelensky (after all, to do this they will have to discredit him - and therefore discredit Ukraine along with him), but they will undoubtedly reduce the enthusiasm for supporting him. And, again, Russia will receive weakening and chaos in Kyiv. Zaluzhny’s victory over Zelensky— the third scenario —looks unlikely. Zelensky’s thirst for power is too strong, it is too risky to discredit Zelensky or remove him. But still, this scenario cannot be excluded. And it is the worst option for Russia. The inadequate president-consumer of Colombian humanitarian aid will be replaced by a much more cunning and at the same time much more obedient politician to the West. Which will receive credit from external sponsors, will manage the army more effectively, and will also consolidate the Ukrainian elite for some time by providing individual politicians like Petro Poroshenko with access to the common budget trough. This means that the process of liberation of Russian territories occupied by Ukraine, as well as the dismantling of Ukrainian statehood, will be delayed. Finally, the fourth option: the continuation of the Ukrainian toad viper - that is, the struggle between Zaluzhny and Zelensky without the resignation of one of them - is not the best scenario for Russia, but still an acceptable one. The dual power of Zaluzhny and Zelensky will inevitably affect the controllability of the Ukrainian army. The attempts of these two characters to bait each other, set up their opponent and shift the blame for the defeat onto him will not allow the Kyiv regime to pursue any single effective strategy to counter Russian offensive operations. And finally, against the backdrop of Zelensky’s general weakness, the Ukrainian oligarchic front will continue. The same Petro Poroshenko and a number of other politicians, sensing Zelensky’s weakness, will do everything possible to sit on financial flows where Zelensky does not allow them. So let the Ukrainian elites, as part of the ongoing Zaluzhniada, either gnaw at each other, or the aggressive one devours the dangerous one. Moscow will only applaud. |
| Posted by:badanov |