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| 'Schrödinger's Zaluzhny'. Why Ukrainians love him so much, but Zelensky doesn’t |
| 2024-02-06 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Anatoly Savenko [REGNUM] Judging by the situation today, resignation is already a done deal: The Washington Post writes that Kyiv has informed Washington of its intention to dismiss the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. But the resignation itself has not yet taken place. This gave rise to a popular meme in Ukraine about “Schrödinger’s Zaluzhny.” If Schrödinger’s cat is equally likely to be alive and dead, then the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is simultaneously acting and dismissed. Every day the media reports new details: “they fired” - “not yet”, “they will exchange for Syrsky!” - “no, it’s Budanov!”, “it’s all fake” - “no, they’ll be filming it very soon.” In general, a typical Ukrainian story. But still, there is a grain of truth in all this mouse fuss - otherwise the fuss itself would not exist. WHY DO THEY KICK YOU OUT? You can start from two events. Firstly, from the version that journalist Seymour Hersh published on his blog. According to his column, the reason for the fuss around Zaluzhny was Zaluzhny’s alleged negotiations with representatives of the West on a ceasefire and some version of a truce with Russia. And all this behind Zelensky’s back and without prior discussion with him. Well, that is, something like Himler in “17 Moments of Spring,” only here Stirlitz found out about everything and told Borman. It is always difficult to prove such things, but there is nothing incredible in such conversations between Zaluzhny and the West. Suffice it to recall Zaluzhny’s interview with The Economist, published in November 2023 : “As in the First World War, we have reached a level of technological development that baffles us <...> There will most likely not be a deep and beautiful breakthrough.” And since there won’t be a deadlock, then what? We need to negotiate. Even if Hersh is mistaken and nothing like this happened, there is a second event, and it definitely happened: Zaluzhny’s article for CNN. Where he talks about the tasks for 2024. At first glance, these are tasks for the Armed Forces of Ukraine: providing the army with high-tech equipment; a new philosophy of training and conducting combat operations; introduction of new combat capabilities. But if you think about it, all of the above goes far beyond the boundaries of his competence. Tasks for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but only the one who is at the head of the state can set them and ensure their implementation. It turns out that the article itself is already an open application for the Hetman’s mace. Moreover, there have been conversations about this since the summer of 2023, and they are very much not in favor of Zelensky. According to the results of a survey by the sociological group “Rating”, Zaluzhny is ahead of Zelensky in the trust rating. Moreover, the option “I completely trust” in relation to Zaluzhny was chosen by 63% of respondents, while only 39% of respondents answered this way in relation to Zelensky. Trust does not equal votes in elections, therefore (according to the same group “Rating”) Zelensky in the second round of hypothetical elections gains more votes than Zaluzhny (42% versus 40%). But it should be more than 50%! Besides, 42/40 is practically parity. And that means Zelensky has an equal rival. And all this against the backdrop of the fact that Zaluzhny actually didn’t even mention his presidential ambitions officially. The only question is, what did Zaluzhny do in order to equal Zelensky in popularity, becoming a threat to him? As often happens, Zelensky himself created the Zaluzhny problem. WHY THEY LOVE YOU To begin with, let us remember that it was Zelensky who made Zaluzhny commander-in-chief in 2021 on the advice of the head of his Office Andriy Yermak. Secondly, the events of 2022 played to Zaluzhny’s advantage. Paradoxical as it may seem, the first year of the war was much more successful for the Ukrainian Armed Forces than the second. After all, then they managed (as a result of battles or retreat of the Russian Armed Forces in the Kyiv, Kharkov, and Kherson regions) to recapture 40 thousand square meters. km of territory. While in 2023 it will be a little more than 300 sq. km. Thirdly, against the backdrop of the successes of 2022, Zaluzhny has turned from a general and commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into a kind of symbol. Musician Oisho BTZ dedicated a musical composition to him, and graffiti “God and Zaluzhny are with us” began to appear in cities (with Zelensky, we note, no such graffiti appeared). Ukrainian patriotic public pages distribute memes with Zaluzhny (mostly adaptations of memes about Chuck Norris). At the same time, Zaluzhny himself is not very active in the media. The same Budanov is confidently ahead of him in the number of interviews distributed, although the position of head of intelligence does not imply publicity. Zaluzhny’s appearance, origin, and career all play into his advantage. Unlike Zelensky, Zaluzhny is a stereotypical “average Ukrainian”: a broad-faced, gentle joker. If you didn’t know that he was the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, he could easily be mistaken for the owner of a tire repair shop in Novograd-Volynsky, where he is from. After school - technical school, then - Odessa Institute of Ground Forces, the path from platoon commander to commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. He has soared high, but at the same time he is understandable and close to any Ukrainian. Closer than the artist and KVN member Zelensky. Apparently, all these factors inflated Zaluzhny’s rating as a political figure. Zelensky himself completed the job. According to a survey by KIIS, another Ukrainian sociological center, 72% of respondents would react negatively to the news about Zaluzhny being replaced by another general. Only 2% would support such a replacement. Although this is not even the main thing. The resignation frees Zaluzhny and not only relieves him of responsibility, but also deprives Zelensky’s Office of the opportunity to intrigue, putting negative pressure on the commander for military failures. Somewhat reminiscent of the story of Klitschko’s election as mayor of Kyiv. As a politician and city manager, he was an absolute zero. And all the technologists asked him to do during the campaign: “Be quiet.” His personal rating was enough to win, and the main task was not to destroy this rating with stupid statements. Zaluzhny will have approximately the same task: to remain silent and maintain his rating until the elections. And any disadvantages of Zelensky will be a plus for Zaluzhny. However, at one time Zelensky himself also received the presidential post. If he had frankly told voters what he was really going to do as president, he would still have remained a popular comedian. |
| Posted by:badanov |