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| Veliana on Russia Calculus |
| 2024-02-06 |
| [Twitter @vtchakarova] ‼️ Very long post on Russia’s geopolitical and geoeconomics calculus. Several intelligence services have recently published a scenario in which Russia may attack NATO member (eg Baltics). Possible but not yet plausible. There are also statements and publications on the growing risks for the European security architecture. That’s been plausible since 2022. I will highlight the key dimensions of Russia‘s geopolitical and geoecononic warfare, which are still spot two years later. There are three key dimensions and the updated scenarios on the war at the end of the post. The first dimension considers Ukraine; the second dimension considers the European security order; and the third dimension - the new Cold War between the US and the #DragonBear. ➡️ Russia seeks first and foremost the complete political, economic and societal subjugation of Ukraine ➡️ Ukraine’s subjugation can be achieved in a time frame of 10-15 years through gradual destruction ➡️ Russia seeks to build a Russian (not Soviet) Union with Belarus and the parts of Russian controlled Ukraine - with deployment of nuclear weapons, Russification, etc. ➡️ If Ukraine can’t be fully subjugated, Russia will seek to balkanize it and split it along the new Iron Curtain between the Eastern Flank of Nato & Moscow’s West Flank ➡️ If Russia wins in this phase, it may try to seize Odesa and Kyiv again; then Transnistria, South Ossetia and Abkhazia may be annexed in the next step. Moscow may eventually provoke Baltics (NATO) in a third step as part of “Russkiy mir” ➡️ Russia seeks to render the EU geopolitically irrelevant by destroying the European security architecture through paralyzed international institutions (eg OSCE), no longer valid legal regimes and treaties; and security vacuum along the peripheries of the continent (Russian activities in MENA & Balkans) ➡️ Russia plays for time using its influence in right & left political forces, eroding Western principles, norms & values through old and newly introduced instruments and tools of the Soviet playbook ➡️ Russia wages a geoeconimic warfare, utilizing commodities dependencies and access to raw materials as a weapon against the European economic model ➡️ Russia aims to gradually erode the EU’s coherence and integrity from within by playing off members against each other and side with Russian friendly governments ➡️ Last but not least, Russia’s war against Ukraine is the manifestation of the beginning of Cold War 2.0 between the US and the DragonBear ➡️ Russia’s calculus is to position itself as a wild card between US and China, augmenting the weight within the systemic rivalry because of the geopolitical importance of Russia ➡️ neither the US nor China can ignore Moscow and yet Moscow can play off the two rivals against each other ➡️ The DragonBear has become a modus vivendi of strategic coordination in many domains over the last 10 years as China wants to prevent Nixon approach to Russia ➡️ Putin will have better cards with the US too if Trump (or a Republican) becomes the next US president ➡️ All in all, three strategic components play a key role for the scenarios on Russia’s war - Western aid, Western sanctions and International Isolation ➡️ On the 2nd anniversary, the Western military aid for Ukraine is significantly low compared to the first year (90% less was delivered in May-Oct 2023 compared to same period in 2022) ➡️ The Western sanctions work and the non-energy sector is now more profitable than the oil and gas revenues, however Russia bets on war economy and shadow fleet as well as further stable demand from Asia ➡️ International isolation didn’t work as Russia relies on key players such as China and India, but also swing states like Turkey, UAE, Brazil, etc. ➡️ If there is no significant change in the three components, the war may move from the scenario of “war of attrition” towards the scenario of “frozen conflict” with first diplomatic talks “under pressure” happening already in 2024/2025. #foresight #Velsig |
| Posted by:3dc |
| #3 Russia plays for time using its influence in right & left political forces, eroding Western principles, norms & values through old and newly introduced instruments and tools of the Soviet playbook Eroding Western principles, norms & values? Isn't that what our own elites are doing? We don't need Russians for enemies. We already have Obama, Biden, Soros, Schwab, Gates, Zuckerberg, etc., etc.,... |
| Posted by: Abu Laptop (same as Abu Uluque but on a different computer.) 2024-02-06 12:23 |
| #2 ^ Ahhh the Soviet embrace. At gunpoint. Russia will not have the Baltics |
| Posted by: Frank G 2024-02-06 11:30 |
| #1 Want to know what Russia going to do: look at what Moscow rulers been doing for 800 years. And yes, Russia must have access to Baltic. Which means the Baltics either become friendly, or cease to exist as independent countries (given their current demographics, not a big stretch). |
| Posted by: Grom the Reflective 2024-02-06 11:25 |