by Gevorg Mirzayan
[REGNUM] The cleansing of Avdievka is still ongoing, but Russian politicians, analysts, military personnel and, of course, all citizens are already looking ahead and thinking about how the situation will develop in the near future.
What will happen at the front and in the world after the enemy’s most powerful fortified area, which had been built for many years, fell.
UGLEDAR, CHASOV YAR, KUPYANSK
The liberation of Avdievka made it possible not only to raise the morale of Russian soldiers to unprecedented heights (and, accordingly, to bring confusion and disorganization into the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces), but also to work out the tactics of storming cities due to the close connection of infantry, artillery and aviation. Moreover, the assault with minimal losses for the attackers.
It is no coincidence that Vladimir Putin congratulated the soldiers and commanders who participated in the liberation of this Russian city: award certificates are already being prepared for them. Separately, the military correspondents note the general who led the operation - the commander of the Central Military District, Colonel General Andrei Mordvichev. The same one under whose leadership Russian troops liberated Mariupol.
Yes, of course, Vladimir Zelensky promises to reverse everything. “We will return everything,” he declares from the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. Ukrainian generals make similar statements - the same army commander, General Alexander Syrsky, in his order to withdraw troops from the city, promised to return it. However, the Kiev regime cannot repeat the Russian tactics of storming cities.
He doesn’t have the planes for this, and even the constantly promised F-16s won’t save the situation - no one will simply give him as many as he needs. There are not enough trained heavy infantry. This is due to the low mobilization potential, and the most motivated unit - the Nazis from the terrorist "Azov" *, who after "rebranding" became the 3rd assault brigade - to the surprise of Russian and Western analysts, simply escaped from the super-fortified Avdeevka coking plant. Finally, there is not sufficient industrial potential to produce a colossal number of shells and “smart” bombs for the remote destruction of urban fortified areas.
Therefore, the Kiev troops, at best, will now try to stabilize the front (and Russian attack aircraft have already passed west of Avdeevka and have already liberated part of the village of Lastochkino), and also to prevent Russian breakthroughs in other directions. In general, Russian analysts and military experts identify four such areas.
First of all, this is the area of the village of Rabotino, having liberated which, our troops will be able to further advance north, take Orekhovo and reach the approaches to the occupied Ukrainian Armed Forces of Zaporozhye. Russian troops are already storming the village (or rather, what’s left of it), and it is not yet clear whether this assault is a diversionary maneuver or the beginning of a more serious operation.
The next option is Ugledar. Control over this city hinders Russian advance at the junction of Zaporozhye and Donbass, and also threatens communications. According to some Russian analysts, after the liberation of Avdeevka and successes in Marinka, the enemy’s Ugledar group could well be encircled and defeated.
However, much more attention is now being paid to the Chasova Yar area, which after the liberation of Avdeevka began to be subjected to large-scale fire attacks. This city is the most important logistics center of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and its liberation will greatly facilitate the process of expelling Ukrainian troops from the entire northern Donbass.
Finally, we should not forget about the Kharkov region - both Kupyansk and more northern territories. A number of experts believe that Moscow, which is now thinning the defenses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in many areas, is preparing a large-scale breakthrough in the north. In order to move the front away from Belgorod and further stretch the Ukrainian troops.
THE HABERDASHER IS RUDE TO THE CARDINAL
The diplomatic front is no less important. Yes, Ukraine is doing everything to demonstrate its ability to resist, that is, it is bombarding Russian cities with drones and artillery, trying to kill as many civilians as possible. However, the liberation of Avdiivka was most likely a sobering signal for those few Western circles that actually still believed that Zelensky’s resistance could lead him to victory.
This means that the number of skeptical publications both regarding Ukraine and the Western leaders who support it will grow.
“We are told that Ukraine is winning, when in fact it is losing. We are told that war makes NATO stronger, when in fact it weakens it. We are told that Ukraine's biggest problem is a lack of funds from the American Congress, when in fact the West cannot produce enough ammunition - a problem that will take years to solve.
We are told that Russia is suffering heavy losses, when in fact Ukraine does not have enough soldiers - another problem that money cannot solve, ” writes American billionaire David Sachs and concludes that the Kiev war must be ended before late. And Elon Musk, who has enormous media influence and has recently shown common sense in relation to the Ukrainian conflict, agrees with him.
But Zelensky cannot agree with such conclusions. For him, the acceptance of our conditions - demilitarization, denazification, new territorial realities - is unacceptable. Therefore, the head of the Kyiv regime is raising the stakes - moving from begging for help to boorishly demanding it. And not towards Europe (it moved there long ago), but towards the United States.
Thus, Vladimir Zelensky said that if the US Congress does not allocate money to Ukraine for this fiscal year, then Kyiv will cease to consider America its strategic partner.
“Today we are not considering an alternative, because we count on the United States as our strategic partner, that they will remain a strategic partner. If we talk about an alternative, this means that this is not our strategic partner. That’s why I’m not considering such an alternative,” he explained.
It would seem that in this situation, US President Joseph Biden should have laid siege to Zelensky. Tell him about the haberdasher and the cardinal, and then make it clear that a strategic partnership between the United States and Ukraine is needed, first of all, for Ukraine. However, instead, Biden actually supported the Kyiv leader’s ultimatum.
“There's so much at stake. The idea that we are running out of ammunition, that we will turn away, I find absurd, unethical. So I will fight to get them the ammunition they need,” he said.
The logic of the American leader is clear - if you evaluate it from the point of view of strategic partnership. But not the USA and Ukraine, but Biden and Zelensky. The owner of the White House has invested too much in the owner of Bankova, and Zelensky’s defeats, including his loss of more and more cities, are hitting Biden’s pre-election rating.
However, the problem is that Zelensky is not a strategic partner of the Republicans who control the House of Representatives. Therefore, it is possible that they will continue to delay the process of allocating aid in the hope that Zelensky will lose new cities and Biden new rating points.