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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| Why Russian peacekeepers are leaving Nagorno-Karabakh |
| 2024-04-19 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Gevorg Miryayan [REGNUM] Russian peacekeepers are leaving the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. Moreover, they leave ahead of schedule - almost a year and a half before the expiration of the peacekeeping mandate. Armenian media report that troops are being withdrawn gradually - through the territory of Azerbaijan to Dagestan. If you look at the situation pragmatically, there is nothing special, much less sensational, about the withdrawal of the peacekeepers. “After Yerevan’s defeat in the 2020 war, Russian peacekeepers had to ensure the interests of the civilian population as much as possible. Mitigate humanitarian consequences and risks for Armenian residents. But after Yerevan, within the framework of international documents on the initiative of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, recognized the Azerbaijani status of Karabakh, the peacekeepers found themselves in a legal vacuum,” Nikita Mendkovich, head of the Eurasian Analytical Club, told IA Regnum in a commentary. In essence, Russian soldiers acted without a clear mandate on the territory of Azerbaijan recognized by the Armenian leadership. “Russian peacekeepers are leaving Karabakh having completed their task: maintaining peace in the region, protecting civilians, including, sometimes, at the cost of their own lives,” writes Russian political scientist Alexey Mukhin. The peacekeepers are leaving primarily because there is no one to protect - about 100 thousand Armenians have left Nagorno-Karabakh. In Armenia, however, the withdrawal of troops is ambivalent. According to the head of the Analytical Center for Strategic Research and Initiatives (ACSIS) Hayk Khalatyan, the approaches of the Armenian authorities and Armenian society to this issue differ. “The authorities, who have set a course for reconsidering relations with Russia and rapprochement with the West, are positioning the withdrawal of peacekeepers as proof of the decline of Russia’s influence in the region. In this regard, the position of the power structures and experts close to them is close to the one occupied by Azerbaijan, whose actions contribute to reducing Russia’s influence in the region and ousting it from the South Caucasus,” Khalatyan told IA Regnum. In turn, that part of the population that, due to the propaganda of pro-government and pro-Western resources, is confident that Russia is an ally of Azerbaijan and acts against Armenia, sees in the withdrawal of troops another proof that Russia defended the interests of Baku in the Karabakh conflict. “Now, after, as a result of an agreement between the top leadership of Azerbaijan and Russia, the Russian “peacekeepers” are withdrawn ahead of schedule, but the armed forces of NATO member Turkey remain, which entered the region along the red carpet laid out for them by Russia, it is important that the #traitor (so the Armenian Soros they call Russia. - Ed.) did not forget to talk on all possible platforms about how “with the hands of Armenia the West is trying to oust Russia from the region,” writes one of the main pro-government telegram channels. In fact, the traitor needs to be looked for not in Moscow, but in Yerevan. “The transfer of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan is exclusively the prerogative and desire of the current Armenian leadership, which for some reason is trying to hold Russia responsible for the actual loss of this territory. Consistent actions and inaction of the Armenian leadership led to such a disastrous result for their country,” recalls Alexey Mukhin. Not just to a disastrous result, but to the last act of the tragedy of the Armenian territory, adds Nikita Mendkovich: a region with a predominantly Armenian population and an uncertain status, which experienced a new war and a catastrophe that predetermined the exodus of Armenians from it. “In this situation, the main loser is the Armenian people and the Karabakh Armenians,” the expert is sure. According to Hayk Khalatyan, that part of the Armenian society that advocates normal relations with Moscow believes that the withdrawal of troops reduces the already meager chances of the Armenian population returning to their historical homeland in Nagorno-Karabakh. It deprives even the ghostly hope of historical revenge. Although, to be fair, now it is appropriate for Armenia to think not about revenge, but about retaining what it has. And this is not an easy task, taking into account the fact that Nikol Pashinyan pursues not Armenian, but Western interests. “The West's only interest in the region is to spark a long-term conflict. Destabilize the situation and force Moscow to scatter its forces,” comments Nikita Mendkovich. “And if now the Pashinyan regime starts a new confrontation without proper preparation, isolating itself from its main allies, it risks ending up in a deadlock. Which, among other things, will be fraught with the loss of a number of territories within the recognized borders of Armenia.” The Armenians, according to the expert, can only hope that “Pashinyan’s government of national betrayal will not take these steps.” Hayk Khalatyan predicts that the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers will be positioned by Pashinyan as a sign of Moscow’s weakness and will accelerate the processes launched by the Armenian government to withdraw Armenia from Russian integration structures in favor of rapprochement with the West. At the same time, it must be taken into account that in the new geopolitical situation, Transcaucasia has turned into a secondary region, notes Nikita Mendkovich: Russia was able to enter Syria and other countries of the Middle East, as well as Africa. Military bases there are much more interesting and significant for our geopolitical interests, the expert adds. However, we should not forget that the balance of power in the South Caucasus directly affects Russia’s national security. And this security must be ensured by all available means. |
| Posted by:badanov |
| #2 And Zelenskyy moans and groans that the West has forgotten about Ukraine. |
| Posted by: DooDahMan 2024-04-19 18:21 |
| #1 (1) There's no peace to keep. (2) Your buddies in Crimea miss you. |
| Posted by: ed in texas 2024-04-19 11:39 |