[KavkazUzel] The withdrawal of peacekeepers from Karabakh makes it impossible for the Armenian population to return to the region and will negatively affect the prospects for a peace treaty, Russian political scientists emphasized. For Azerbaijan, the withdrawal of peacekeepers means the complete restoration of sovereignty and the absence of foreign military bases on the country’s territory, while an agreement between Moscow and Baku could be reached through a political compromise, Baku analysts believe.As the "Caucasian Knot" wrote, Russia has begun the withdrawal of peacekeepers from the zone of the former Karabakh conflict, Putin's press secretary said on April 17. On October 9, 2023, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that against the backdrop of the closure of peacekeeper observation posts, 25 guard posts were set up to guard weapons seized in Karabakh, including 14 posts jointly with the Azerbaijani military. On the same day, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that the activities of the peacekeepers would be adapted against the backdrop of the mass exodus of Karabakh residents from the region. The continued presence of peacekeepers in the region is contrary to the interests of Baku, Azerbaijani analysts pointed out.
The presence of peacekeepers in the region until 2025 is provided for by the 2020 trilateral agreement, although their functions may be adjusted, Russian analysts interviewed by the Caucasian Knot indicated in September.
The withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers was a failure of the settlement, believes Stanislav Pritchin, a senior researcher at the Center for Post-Soviet Studies at IMEMO RAS. “The withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers is a failure of attempts to normalize relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Because without Russian peacekeepers, the Armenian population of Karabakh will never return. Theoretically, it was still possible to imagine that these people would return to Karabakh under the guarantees of Russian peacekeepers. Now the withdrawal of the Russian peacekeeping contingent would mean “, that Karabakh is closed to Armenians. And this means that Azerbaijan, no matter how much it wants it, is assigned the status of a country that, if it did not expel itself, then did not do what was necessary to preserve the autochthonous population of Karabakh,” he told a Kavkazsky correspondent. node".
“Nothing good will happen for Armenia,” Pritchin suggested, expressing the opinion that the country is doing a poor job of solving the problems of Karabakh refugees.
The Nagorno-Karabakh Republic ceased to existon January 1. By October 7, 2023, 100,632 internally displaced persons from Nagorno-Karabakh arrived in Armenia. The Armenian government is involved in the social issues of refugees.
For Russia, in his opinion, this is also not the best scenario. “Because the Russian settlement plan has not been implemented. It is unlikely that it will be implemented without Russia’s participation. With the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers, the possibility of normalizing relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia will close,” Pritchin concluded.
Alexander Karavaev, a researcher at the Caspian Institute for Strategic Studies (KISS), said that the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers came as a surprise. “Back at the beginning of April, there were no signals about the winding down of the mission. Although the peacekeeping mission ceased to be relevant since October 2023. Since then, Russia has been winding down the posts. But I know for sure that there were no hints from Azerbaijan that the mission should be completed And indeed, the extension could only be refused from May 2025. There were no complaints against the RMC after the migration of the Armenians. That is, the peacekeepers did not interfere with the Azerbaijanis in any way.
The withdrawal of the peacekeepers is unclear. The number of peacekeepers was already greatly reduced. There were no more than 1,500 people left, 50-60 armored personnel carriers. This will take some time. And during the withdrawal, a version of the reasons for the withdrawal of the peacekeepers will probably be heard. other objects from the peacekeepers to the Azerbaijani side,” he told the “Caucasian Knot” correspondent.
Previously, RMK had several tasks, the interlocutor indicated. "Surveillance, movement on roads, staff work on recording incidents and negotiations. All these tasks are irrelevant after the Armenian residents of Karabakh migrated to Armenia. By the beginning of the year, practically only one task remained - demining the territories. It was necessary to remove two layers of mining in almost 30 years of confrontation. Dense minefields on the former demarcation line.
In addition, mine scatterings that appeared during the 44-day war of 2020. And there was a humanitarian demining center under the peacekeepers. It will probably continue to work. they were accredited by the Azerbaijani demining agency," Karavaev explained.
How the positions of peacekeepers were located in the region after the Karabakh war in 2020 can be seen on the “ Map of the deployment of Russian peacekeepers ” prepared by the “Caucasian Knot ”.
The winding down of the Russian peacekeepers' mission will be gradual, he is sure. “The main question is about the demining center - will it remain,” Karavaev emphasized.
In his opinion, Azerbaijan will receive more benefits from the withdrawal of peacekeepers than other parties.
“In general, this will have neutral consequences for him. And even positive aspects. For example, the final transfer of control over 100 percent of the territory of Karabakh. There are no such advantages for Armenia. There are even risks for the security of Armenia in the sense that Russia is washing its hands of "The departure of the peacekeepers allows Azerbaijan to deploy in full force if the need arises for military pressure on Armenia. Armenia will have to follow the “road map” from Baku. But it is not interested in this. Perhaps Armenia will want to change its position. Externals can play on this actors. Armenia is now looking for new sponsors of its security in the person of the United States and France,” Karavaev explained.
In November 2023, France supplied Armenia with more than 20 Bastion armored vehicles as part of an agreement concluded in Paris in October of the same year. Components for these armored cars were also sent. The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry stated that this delivery strengthened Armenia's military potential, which could hinder the establishment of peace in the region. Baku analysts interviewed by the "Caucasian Knot" indicated that weapons from France do not change the balance of power in the region and do not create real military threats to Azerbaijan.
At the beginning of December 2023, the French Senate announced that in 2024 a batch of 26 Bastion armored vehicles would be transferred to Armenia.
The head of the PolitRUS expert and analytical network, Vitaly Arkov, emphasized that the mandate of the Russian peacekeeping contingent in Karabakh is actually valid until the end of 2025.
“However, the situation in the region has undergone changes after the well-known events of September 2023. Immediately after the Azerbaijani authorities restored full control over the Karabakh economic region, the issue of the continued presence of Russian peacekeepers in the region was also raised, but Moscow agreed with Baku’s request to extend their stay, since the issue was urgent the issue of peaceful coexistence between the residents of Armenian nationality remaining in Karabakh and the Azerbaijani administration of the region. Also, sapper specialists of the Russian peacekeeping contingent assisted their Azerbaijani colleagues in demining the territory, in particular, the Khojaly region,” he said.
According to Arkov, joint work on mine clearance can be continued. “The Russian side has all the necessary equipment and competencies, which makes it possible to detect and neutralize Soviet-made mines, which were massively used by the Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army, faster than with Western equipment.”
The misunderstandings and fears that initially existed between residents of Armenian nationality and the Azerbaijani administration of Karabakh are thanks to professionalism Russian peacekeepers were removed, and life in the region began to proceed in a peaceful direction. Moscow considered the mission of the Russian peacekeeping contingent in this part of the documents concluded in November 2020 to be successfully completed and proposed that Baku begin a phased withdrawal of the group,” he said.
He does not rule out the possibility of the transfer of Russian peacekeepers from the territory of Azerbaijan to territories that have come under Russian control during a special military operation in Ukraine or their participation in localizing the conflict between Israel and Palestine in the Gaza Strip.
Azerbaijani analysts pointed out the benefits for Baku from the withdrawal of peacekeepers
The withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from the territory of Azerbaijan is due to a mutual decision of the top leadership of both countries, said Assistant to the President of Azerbaijan Hikmet Hajiyev on April 17.
“The process has already begun, the ministries of defense of Azerbaijan and Russia are taking appropriate measures to implement this decision,” the Oxu.Az agency quoted him as saying.
The process of withdrawing Russian peacekeepers will stretch out and will be completely completed at the end of September this year, suggested military expert, reserve officer Adalat Verdiev.
“All equipment and manpower will be withdrawn. Russia will allow Azerbaijan to use the territory of the Khojaly airport, where the peacekeepers’ base was located in Karabakh,” he told the “Caucasian Knot” correspondent.
The withdrawal will be gradual and will last until September because during the three years of its stay in Karabakh, the Russian peacekeeping contingent brought and built a mobile town there, which has barracks, a hospital, a canteen, a kitchen, a bathhouse, sports facilities, construction equipment, even a church. It takes time to dismantle and load this equipment,” Verdiev explained.
The withdrawal of the peacekeepers was the result of a huge amount of work by Azerbaijani diplomacy and the right timing, said Ahmed Alili, director of the Caucasus Center for Political Analysis. “As a result, Azerbaijan has become the only country participating in the EU Eastern Partnership program that does not have a foreign military base on its soil. We will learn full information about this work after a long time,” Alili told the “Caucasian Knot” correspondent.
The head of the Center for the Study of the South Caucasus, Farhad Mamedov, agreed with him. “The leadership of Azerbaijan patiently and steadily implemented the line for the complete restoration of sovereignty throughout the territory of Azerbaijan,” he told the “Caucasian Knot” correspondent.
Director of the Atlas Analytical Center Elkhan Shainoglu considers it possible to reach an oral agreement between Russia and Azerbaijan that in exchange for the premature withdrawal of peacekeepers, Baku should agree to become a member of the Eurasian Economic Union. “But official Baku has a well-known condition: Armenia must sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan. Because Azerbaijan has close economic relations with other members of the Eurasian Economic Community. There are no such relations with Armenia. And Azerbaijan’s membership in the CSTO is impossible, since the country does not participate in military blocs, having become a member of the Movement of Non-Aligned Countries. The Kremlin accepts this logic,” he told the “Caucasian Knot” correspondent.
Since the beginning of the withdrawal of the peacekeepers, there has been no clear explanation from Azerbaijani officials, noted political analyst, head of the East-West Research Center Arastun Orujlu. In his opinion, if the withdrawal of the peacekeepers was the merit of the Azerbaijani leadership, official Baku would not have missed the opportunity for its PR.
“It’s as if Baku doesn’t understand what’s going on. Moreover, a week ago, the Azerbaijani mine clearance agency made a statement that the Russian peacekeeping contingent will help clear the territory of mines, although mine specialists are needed for this work. One gets the impression that Baku did not expect such a quick withdrawal of Russian troops. But in any case, on the eve of the event, the Azerbaijani authorities were aware, since the column was moving through Azerbaijani territory, and Baku must have consent to this,” Orujlu said.
He believes that the presence of the military in the region was a negative factor in the forceful presence of one state in another. “I think Moscow used this factor to influence Azerbaijan and Armenia, preventing Baku from conducting peace negotiations. This was evident from the fact that Baku refused Western mediation and negotiations without intermediaries. I have no doubt about the negative impact of the presence of peacekeepers on the peace process “I don’t think that the withdrawal of the RMK will facilitate negotiations with Yerevan, since the presence of the Russian Federation in the region has never been limited to military force. Russia’s political influence and military threat remain,” he noted.
In his opinion, the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan remains under the control of Russia. “A peace treaty can be concluded on Russia’s terms. Russian influence on Baku and Yerevan is much broader than we think. Therefore, at least this year, I do not expect progress in the peace process and any signing,” the expert added.