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Emir of Kuwait dies
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Page 4: Opinion
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Afghanistan
Bomb Hits Canadian Convoy in Afghanistan
A suicide car bomb hit a Canadian military convoy in a southern Afghan city Sunday, killing two civilians and wounding 13 people, officials said.

The blast occurred as the convoy was driving near the Canadian base in Kandahar city, a former Taliban stronghold, said Interior Ministry spokesman Dad Mohammed Rasa. He said at least two civilians were killed and 10 were wounded. He said an unspecified number of Canadian troops were also hurt.

U.S. military spokesman Lt. Col. Jerry O'Hara said three soldiers were wounded in a bomb attack on a U.S.-led coalition convoy, but declined to identify their nationalities. Calls to a spokesman for the Canadian force in Kandahar went unanswered. Canada has about 650 troops in Afghanistan, nearly all in Kandahar.

Shopkeeper Rahim Gul said he saw a sedan vehicle blow up as it was passing the convoy. "The explosion was so big. It destroyed one jeep and blew it totally to the other side of the road," he said, adding that he saw at least three wounded soldiers.
Posted by: ed || 01/15/2006 08:40 || Comments || Link || [0 views] Top|| File under:


Taliban fighters killed in clash
American and Afghan government troops have killed about six insurgents in a battle in central Afghanistan, the US military said. The clash erupted when gunmen fired on what the US military called an offensive patrol in the central province of Uruzgan on Friday. "An estimated six enemy fighters were killed; the remainder fled the area," the US military said in a statement issued late on Friday.

The American military, which said no Afghan or US troops had been hurt in the clash, said its offensive patrols were aimed at rooting out insurgents and disrupting supplies. "Such patrols are being conducted through the winter months to deny the enemy sanctuary and hinder the enemy's supply efforts," it said.
Posted by: Fred || 01/15/2006 00:00 || Comments || Link || [4 views] Top|| File under:


Mullah Khaksar Is Assassinated
Gunmen in the southern city of Kandahar killed a former Taliban leader on Saturday who had repudiated the extremist movement in recent years, siding instead with the U.S. presence and Afghanistan's move toward democracy. Mohammed Khaksar, the Taliban's former intelligence chief, was shot in the chest, neck and head by two gunmen on a motorbike while he was carrying groceries home from a market around 4 p.m., according to his brother and the Kandahar police chief. He died instantly.
"He's dead, Jim! No need for Dr. Quincy!"
Mohammed Khaksar, the Taliban's former intelligence chief, secretly contacted the United States in 1999 and offered to help confront the movement and al Qaeda.
I'm surprised they didn't get him earlier. He was the first major Taliban figure to come over to our side when Kabul fell...
The incident was the latest in a string of brazen attacks that continue to haunt the country four years after the Taliban was ousted from power. In recent weeks, a teacher was beheaded and numerous other Afghans have been killed in suicide attacks. The Taliban, whose members are waging an insurgency against international forces and the new democratically elected government, asserted responsibility for Khaksar's killing. "We were after him for a long time and found the opportunity to kill him today," the organization's purported spokesman, Qari Mohammad Yousuf, said in a satellite telephone call to the Reuters news agency.
I'd guess the call originated in Pakland, of course...
Yousuf told the Associated Press that Khaksar was "a traitor to our cause."
"We dunnit, and we're glad we dunnit!"
But Khaksar's brother said it was too early to assign blame. "We don't know exactly who has killed our brother," Abdullah Nazik said. "Only God knows who has done this."
Well, God and whoever did it ...
Khaksar, who was in his mid-forties and had five children, was the Taliban's intelligence chief, and later its deputy interior minister. He was a key player in the movement as it swept to power in the mid-1990s, and at one time he was a close friend of Taliban leader Mohammad Omar. But he became disenchanted with the increased role of al Qaeda in the country's affairs. In 1999, he had said, he secretly reached out to the United States and offered to help confront the Taliban and the terrorist organization that backed it. Khaksar also became an informant for the Northern Alliance, an anti-Taliban militia group. Two years later, he defected from the Taliban within weeks of the movement's retreat from Kabul, publicly aligning himself with Northern Alliance forces that had taken the capital with U.S. support. In numerous interviews with Western media outlets after his defection, Khaksar said he believed the Taliban had been co-opted by al Qaeda. "Al Qaeda was very important for the Taliban because they had so much money," Khaksar said in an interview with The Washington Post in November 2001. "They gave a lot of money. And the Taliban trusted them."
Money, guns and ammo, just too seductive for the Taliban to resist.
The Taliban are a reflection of Waziristan, where the same things are going on now.
Khaksar also explained how Osama bin Laden, the Saudi-born leader of al Qaeda, would personally distribute funds to Taliban leaders he wanted to control. "He had money in his pocket," Khaksar said. "Any time he wanted, he would just pull it out and give it to them."
Just like a mobster.
Khaksar ran in parliamentary elections in September but fell short in his bid to represent Kandahar. He had recently told the Associated Press that Taliban fighters were threatening his life.
I'm sure they've been threatening all along.
U.S. and Afghan authorities condemned his killing. "Anyone who is killing the people who are supporting the democratization process and the reconstruction process, they are the enemies of Afghanistan," said Afghanistan's national security adviser, Zalmai Rassoul. "And that is the way they are perceived by the Afghan people."
But the Afghan people haven't been gunning a lot of them down, have they?
"Tragic events such as this only solidify our resolve that we must eradicate terrorism now," said Col. James Yonts, the U.S. military spokesman in Kabul. "Our thoughts and prayers go out to the Afghan families of those who have been lost in this war against terrorism." The Afghan government has frequently appealed to Taliban members to disavow their allegiance to the movement and begin working within the country's fledgling democratic system. But Khaksar's death underscored the risk involved at a time when insurgents continue to operate with impunity in many areas.
To whit, the Pashtun areas along the Pak border that are indistinguishable from Waziristan.
Time for that fence and moat with the alligators.
Posted by: lotp || 01/15/2006 00:00 || Comments || Link || [0 views] Top|| File under:

#1  Payback for our taking out the #2 of AQ and a ISS bud?
Posted by: 3dc || 01/15/2006 0:06 Comments || Top||


Attackers wipe out Afghan border post
A newly constructed security checkpoint near the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan has been destroyed by a rocket attack, killing eight people. The attack occurred on Saturday in a village close to Miranshah, the main town in North Waziristan.

Pakistan has deployed thousands of troops and security forces in the mainly tribal region in effort to flush out suspected members of the Taliban, al-Qaida and their local supporters. A senior security official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said all eight soldiers guarding the checkpoint were killed. Another security official, again remaining anonymous, said that the dead troops had moved to the new checkpoint only hours before the attack. He said Pakistani forces supported by helicopters were trying to track down the assailants.

The checkpoint was built as part of Pakistan's efforts to stop potential terrorists travelling unmonitored between Pakistan and Afghanistan, where US forces are trying to combat rebels.
Posted by: Fred || 01/15/2006 00:00 || Comments || Link || [0 views] Top|| File under:

#1  The Pashtuns will not accept this "border" that divides their land.
The Durand line treaty has expired and one party to that treaty - the British Raj no longer exists.
The Afghans think that Pakistan is in occupation of its territory and illegal border posts will be attacked.

Posted by: john || 01/15/2006 9:36 Comments || Top||


Africa North
13 GSPC busted
Algerian police nabbed 13 members of a terror group which was uncovered in a recent raid in western province of Tilimsen, Algerian news agency reported Friday. The police seized a batch of ammunition as well as some trafficand communication equipment such as vehicles, mobile phones and computers.

The terror group had grabbed money money through blackmailing, smuggling and counterfeiting to fund terrorism activities, said the report.
Posted by: Dan Darling || 01/15/2006 00:50 || Comments || Link || [4 views] Top|| File under:


Arabia
Emir of Kuwait dies
Sheik Jaber Al Ahmed Al Sabah, the emir of Kuwait who survived an assassination attempt in the 1980s and a decade later escaped Iraqi troops invading his oil-rich Persian Gulf state, died Sunday, state television announced. The sheik, who had been ailing since suffering a brain hemorrhage five years ago, was 79.

Crown Prince Sheik Saad Al Abdullah Al Sabah, a distant cousin chosen by the emir as his heir apparent in 1978, takes over as ruler of the tiny oil-rich country — a key U.S. ally in the Middle East. He is 75 and has colon problems.

The government announced a 40-day period of mourning and said government offices would be closed for three days beginning Sunday.

Sheik Jaber was a close friend of the United States even before U.S. forces led the fight to liberate his country in 1991. Kuwait served as the major launching point for the U.S.-led invasion 12 years later when American troops drove to Baghdad and toppled
Saddam Hussein. Kuwait has remained reliant on U.S. forces for defense, and the close alliance is likely to continue under Sheik Saad. The Al Sabah family has ruled Kuwait for more than 250 years.

After a Shiite Muslim extremist tried to assassinate Sheik Jaber in a suicide car bombing in May 1985, the emir abruptly changed his habits. He stopped driving his own car to bustling bazaars and cut down on public appearances. He did not like traveling abroad, though he went for medical treatment.

He suffered a brain hemorrhage in 2001 and was treated in London. On the rare occasions since then when he appeared in public, he had difficulty delivering speeches.
"Nurse! He's doing it again!"
Sheik Jaber, born in 1926 before Kuwait became rich exporting oil and educated by private tutors in his father's palace, was considered a father figure to many Kuwaitis who generally were fond and respectful of the emir.

Despite the wealth and well-consolidated family rule, Sheik Jaber was considered a quiet listener who avoided ostentation. His palace in Kuwait City's Dasman neighborhood near the sea was described as a spacious but ordinary house, and bread and yogurt often satisfied him at mealtime.

While in exile in the Saudi resort hotel of Taif, the emir said little and prayed a lot, Ahmed al-Jarrallah, editor of the newspaper Al-Siyassah, wrote. He said the emir was always saying: "I just want a small tent in my country. I don't want palaces or luxury."

Designated crown prince and prime minister in 1965, Sheik Jaber succeeded his uncle, Sheik Sabah Al Salem Al Sabah, as emir on Dec. 31, 1977. The year before taking over, he set up the Fund for Future Generations — a financial safety net for Kuwaitis when the oil eventually runs out. To this day, he has ensured 10 percent of oil revenues go into the fund, which has an estimated balance of more than $60 billion.

Before the 1990-91 crisis over the Iraqi invasion, Sheik Jaber and his family presided over an affluent but tightly controlled society. Sheik Jaber dissolved parliament in 1986 for severely criticizing the government. He did not restore it until 1992, a year after Iraqi troops were driven out.

The United States, trying to sell allies on joining the international coalition that ultimately forced Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein's forces out of Kuwait, pressed the ruling family to institute or return some democratic institutions to Kuwait. The emir dissolved parliament again in 1999 saying lawmakers misused their constitutional rights. A new public vote was held just two months later.

Sheik Jaber won the praise and gratitude of human rights activists when he decreed in 1999 that women should have the vote and be eligible to run for office. However, conservatives and fundamentalist Muslims formed a parliamentary alliance that repeatedly kept his decree from being put into practice. He could have disbanded parliament to press his view, but did not. Six years later, in May 2005, parliament finally approved the legislation supported by the emir.

During Saddam's rule, the Iraqi dictator delivered harsh attacks on Sheik Jaber in an attempt to discredit the ruling family of Kuwait, which Iraq had claimed since the territory's independence from Britain in 1961. He called the emir a "womanizer" who married 40 times.

Saddam described the emirate as a lazy nation languishing in comfort attended by foreign servants. Except when foreign workers fled during the invasion crisis, foreigners in modern Kuwait have outnumbered native. Today, there are about 960,000 Kuwaitis and 1.64 million foreign residents.
And not many of them are Paleos anymore.
Sheik Jaber fled Kuwait when Saddam's armored columns invaded on Aug. 2, 1990, with orders to capture or kill him. He drove to Saudi Arabia, accompanied by most of his estimated 70 children and dozens of senior members of the royal family. He set up a government-in-exile in Taif and went on Saudi television to urge his people to resist.
He managed to resist well from his hotel in Soddiland.
Close aides say he denounced Saddam as a criminal and wondered out loud: "Why does this Saddam hate me so much?"
Maybe it was the money. Maybe it was the oil. Maybe you were just in the way.
Like other Arab leaders in the Persian Gulf, Sheik Jaber had backed Iraq during its 1980-88 war with Iran.
Posted by: Dan Darling || 01/15/2006 00:14 || Comments || Link || [9 views] Top|| File under:

#1  Wonder how long before the gov't turns against us now.
Posted by: Scooter McGruder || 01/15/2006 3:06 Comments || Top||

#2  No change in government.
Posted by: 6 || 01/15/2006 6:23 Comments || Top||

#3  The Al Sabahs will not permit anti-Americanism to rise to the top - the current Regent and all those in line below him remember the invasion of Kuwait and the atrocities visited on their country. Also, certain of the Sabahs died making sure the Emir got out of the country, and there is blood debt involved on their part.
Posted by: Shieldwolf || 01/15/2006 14:53 Comments || Top||

#4  Certain other Sabahs were also in the Free Kuwaiti Forces.
Posted by: Pappy || 01/15/2006 21:41 Comments || Top||


Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
Chechen terrorist detained in Duba-Yurt
Chechen police have detained a militant in the Shali district, a source in the district's police department told Interfax. "Tapa Umayev, a member of Akhmed Yunusov's group was apprehended in an operation in Duba-Yurt," the source said.

A local resident found artillery shells near the village of Zony in the Shatoi district, a source in the district administration told Interfax by telephone.
Posted by: Dan Darling || 01/15/2006 00:42 || Comments || Link || [2 views] Top|| File under:


Europe
Germany Said to Have Paid $5 million Ransom for Osthoff
The part that got my attention is this 2003 story stating that the German intelligence agency BND had excellent relationships with the Baathists under Saddam.
Posted by: lotp || 01/15/2006 00:00 || Comments || Link || [2 views] Top|| File under:

#1  Well, now they know germs are worth hard cold cash if you can bag em. Nice move boys. Now reap what you sow.
Posted by: bigjim-ky || 01/15/2006 11:22 Comments || Top||

#2  It would tickle me pink if they paid in counterfit cash.
Posted by: Redneck Jim || 01/15/2006 17:33 Comments || Top||

#3  East German Marks.
Posted by: Jackal || 01/15/2006 19:16 Comments || Top||


Spain detains suspected Iraq recruiters
A Spanish High Court judge has remanded in custody seven suspects accused of recruiting fighters to carry out bombings in Iraq. Judge Fernando Andreu said in a court order on Saturday that the group, based in the northeastern Catalan town of Vilanova i la Geltru, was based around a mosque.
Comes as a surprise, huh?
Iman Mohamed Samadi gave "radical speeches, particularly at Friday prayers, in which he requested prayers for mujahidins, or for people who had given their lives for the jihad (holy war)". Samadi also collected funds at the mosque to support the jihad and the group met privately at the mosque at unusual times of the day to avoid being detected, the judge said.

The seven were among 21 arrested this week who Spanish authorities say formed two cells of alleged radical Islamists. The group was believed to have recruited an Algerian who killed 19 Italians and nine Iraqis when he blew himself up in Iraq in 2003. Along with Samadi, others sent to prison pending trial were named as Mohamed Mrabet Fahsi, Hassan Mordoude, Mostapha Fawzi Ait Oudriss, Mostapha Es Satty, Mounir Mrabet Fahsi and Abdelhak Boudina. Another man, who was not named, was released but ordered to make regular appearances before police. The rest of those arrested this week may be charged later on Saturday by another judge at Spain's High Court. One of them, Omar Nakhcha, is thought to have helped three of the suspects in the March 11 Madrid train bombings that killed 191 people, escape Spain.
Posted by: Fred || 01/15/2006 00:00 || Comments || Link || [0 views] Top|| File under:


India-Pakistan
Nepal says rebel raids won't deter polls
KATHMANDU - Nepal will go ahead with next month’s municipal polls despite Maoist attacks around the capital in which 12 policemen were killed, a minister said on Sunday. Five blasts rocked areas around Kathmandu on Saturday. The deadliest attack occurred in Thankot, 10 km from the capital, where heavily armed rebels tossed a bomb at a police post and sprayed bullets from automatic rifles, killing 11 policemen.
You'd think the police would be ready for this sort of thing.
In another attack, near the temple town of Bhaktapur, one policeman was killed and eight people, including seven policemen, were wounded, state television said. Two policemen were also missing after the attack, officials said. Other blasts around the city caused no injuries.

“These incidents will not deter the elections,” junior information minister Shris Shumsher Rana told Reuters in the first official comments after the attacks. “Since the Kathmandu targets have high propaganda value the utility of such incidents becomes evident for those who would want to impede elections,” Rana said.

“We are prepared for any eventuality,” he added.
"Tut-tut, my good man."
At Thankot, witnesses said dozens of rebels in plain clothes arrived in a bus followed by armed guerrillas in another bus. They carried out the raid then ran away fled into nearby forests. Unexploded bombs and bullets left after the raid littered the police post on a highway linking the hill-ringed capital with the southern plains.
Posted by: Steve White || 01/15/2006 22:35 || Comments || Link || [6 views] Top|| File under:


DEBKA: US was gamed with false lead re: Zawahiri
Posted by: lotp || 01/15/2006 21:19 || Comments || Link || [8 views] Top|| File under:


Zawahri missed dinner that prompted US strike
A dinner invitation to al Qaeda's second-in-command triggered a U.S. airstrike in Pakistan's tribal region but Ayman al-Zawahri failed to show up, Pakistani intelligence officials said on Sunday.

Pakistan condemned Friday's strike, which killed at least 18 people, including women and children, and summoned U.S. ambassador Ryan Crocker to protest. Thousands of local tribesmen also rallied near the scene, chanting anti-American slogans.

The Foreign Ministry said on Saturday that foreigners had been near the village of Damadola in the Bajaur region bordering
Afghanistan and were the probable target.

Pakistani intelligence officials said they were checking reports up to seven foreign militants had been killed and their bodies removed by local supporters. But they said there were no indications Osama bin Laden's deputy, Zawahri, was there. "He was invited for the dinner, but we have no evidence he was present," a senior intelligence official told Reuters.

Al Arabiya television quoted a source it said had contact with al Qaeda saying Zawahri was alive.

The U.S. government has not commented, but U.S. sources familiar with the operation said it was too early to determine his fate and the remains of the dead would have to be examined to determine whether Zawahri was among them.

The sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the issue's sensitive nature, said the airstrike was carried out on the basis of "very good" intelligence indicating Zawahri was at the targeted location.

Another Pakistani intelligence official said two local Islamist clerics, known for harbouring al Qaeda militants, had attended the dinner but left hours before the airstrike at 3.00 a.m. (2200 GMT).
Rest at link.
Posted by: ed || 01/15/2006 08:36 || Comments || Link || [8 views] Top|| File under:

#1  I'm still waiting for the video or tape of Zarwahiri's next announcment.
Posted by: C-Low || 01/15/2006 9:02 Comments || Top||

#2  And a check on the date stamp.
Posted by: Hupomoger Clans9827 || 01/15/2006 9:29 Comments || Top||

#3  Zawahiri deserves death but his continued life is a drain on the terrorists in several ways.

1. he needs continual care, feeding and stroking which requires resources

2. his existance makes the terrorist logistics more stable and more easy to attack

He is a good fundraiser for the terrorist cause but they have other guys who do this - maybe just as well.
Posted by: mhw || 01/15/2006 10:18 Comments || Top||

#4  The headline in my paper (page 3) is US Strikes prompt anti-war protests. I managed to read the opening paragraph, it only mentioned we had violated Pakistani air space.
Posted by: 2b || 01/15/2006 10:35 Comments || Top||

#5  makes the terrorist logistics more stable
?
More static?
Posted by: 6 || 01/15/2006 10:47 Comments || Top||

#6  OK more static; easier to strike
Posted by: mhw || 01/15/2006 11:38 Comments || Top||

#7  I think he's dead and the ISI is pissed we struck him without their permission.
I suspect both UBL and Zawahiri are (were) being protected by the ISI to be used as bargaining chips with the US.

"Maybe if we got a few more F-16s we could find him"
"and maybe some F-15s"
"and maybe some Raptors"
F*ck 'em

Al
Posted by: Frozen Al || 01/15/2006 11:52 Comments || Top||

#8  ... but Ayman al-Zawahri failed to show up ...

If true, you'd almost think he was tipped off.
Posted by: xbalanke || 01/15/2006 11:55 Comments || Top||

#9  We knew about a specific dinner engagement? Thank you for getting out that information -- you've been a great help to our side (you know who you are). ;-)
Posted by: trailing wife || 01/15/2006 12:03 Comments || Top||

#10  Yknow, sometimes it's just nice to sleep outside. Can be good for your health.
Posted by: M. Qaddafi || 01/15/2006 12:07 Comments || Top||

#11  got it mhr, and agreed.
Posted by: 6 || 01/15/2006 14:12 Comments || Top||

#12  .....mhw. Jeebus.
Posted by: 6 || 01/15/2006 14:13 Comments || Top||

#13  Sleeping outside cures all forms of insomnia.
Posted by: 6 || 01/15/2006 14:14 Comments || Top||

#14  except for SFOR's with nightvision goggles and heat-register vision, eh? heh heh
Posted by: Frank G || 01/15/2006 14:21 Comments || Top||

#15  :>
Of course sleeping indoors cures all types of insomina too.
Posted by: 6 || 01/15/2006 14:23 Comments || Top||

#16  Dinner is served.

Oh, you're too full?

How about a carry bag?
Posted by: Captain America || 01/15/2006 15:49 Comments || Top||

#17  I would be curious to what our military is saying not much word from them yet. Wether preadators (I think doubtfull three block buildings leveled by a few hellfire only has a 200lb warhead / 2missles per plane) pulled the trigger or strike craft I am sure thier was a predator on scene for targeting and damage assesment, those guys know. Of course the military wont release this and better not but even so they may know AQ was thier but face recognition in infrared not going to happen so with the 5bodies hauled off again no recognition how are you to know who you killed you know 5 AQ but not which ones just rumors. so back to Wait and see. 20+yrs from now when alot of stuff gets declassified the WOT will and our actions will make for some amazing TV.

Posted by: C-Low || 01/15/2006 17:51 Comments || Top||

#18  A strike of this magnitude would have called for eyes on target and boots on the ground nearby...they want to make sure of what they are hitting.
Posted by: Grins Sluper5274 || 01/15/2006 19:16 Comments || Top||

#19  I s'pose then that our Special Forces guys are expert at cross-country skiing or snowshoeing. I do hope someone has hot cocoa waiting for them when they get back. ;-)
Posted by: trailing wife || 01/15/2006 19:44 Comments || Top||

#20  Obviously tipped off by PAK
Posted by: Cheper Unavise7761 || 01/15/2006 23:32 Comments || Top||


Bombay imam held for LeT ties
An "imam" of a mosque here was arrested today by the Anti-Terrorist Squad (ATS) of Mumbai Police for his alleged links with three suspected militants of the banned Lashkar-e-Toiba, arrested last week in the city.

Maulana Ghulam Yahya Allah Baksh, hailing from North 24 Pargana district in West Bengal, was picked up from the Haj House in south Mumbai by ATS after the three suspected militants spilled the beans during interrogation.

The "imam", who leads prayers in a mosque, was arrested under several sections of Unlawful Activities Prevention Act (UAPA), 2004, Jaijit Singh, Additional Commissioner of Police Jaijit Singh told PTI. Fortyfour-year-old Maulana was produced before a magistrate who remanded him to police custody till January 24.

According to ATS, Maulana was instrumental in providing shelter to the three militants from Jammu and Kashmir, arrested last week. Maulana, who had been working as Imam in Haj House Masjid since 1996, had also helped them to conceal arms and material used for making bombs, ATS alleged.
Posted by: Dan Darling || 01/15/2006 00:49 || Comments || Link || [4 views] Top|| File under:


LeT member killed in Doda
A militant belonging to the terrorist outfit Lashkar-e-Toiba was killed during an encounter with the security personnel in Jammu and Kashmir's Doda district early on Saturday morning. The security forces gunned down the militant identified as Abu Hamza, sector commander of LeT and a Pakistani national, while searching for a group of militants operating Kishtwar belt of Doda.

Earlier the security forces had got the information about a terrorist group operating in the area.

The forces have claimed recovery of One AK rifle, two magazines, 7 grenades, one wireless set and some diaries from the slain militant.
Posted by: Dan Darling || 01/15/2006 00:44 || Comments || Link || [6 views] Top|| File under:


Al-Guardian on the al-Zawahiri hit
The missiles were deadly accurate. In the pitch dark of a night in Pakistan's sparsely populated North West Frontier Province, they not only located the three targeted houses on the outskirts of the village of Damadola Burkanday but squarely struck their hujra, the large rooms traditionally used by Pashtun tribesmen to accommodate guests.

Yesterday some of the results of the strike were very clear: three ruined houses, mud-brick rubble scattered across the steeply terraced fields, the bodies of livestock lying where thrown by the airblast, a row of newly dug graves in the village cemetery and torn green and red embroidered blankets flapping in the chilly wind. Four children were among the 18 villagers who died in the brutally sudden attack on their homes.

Yet evidence emerging appeared to indicate that, though the technology that guided the missiles to their targets at 3am on Friday was faultless, the intelligence that had selected those targets was not. Even as American military and intelligence sources spoke of the possible death of Ayman al-Zawahiri, the second-in-command of al-Qaeda and the man considered to be the brains behind the militant group's strategy, Pakistani officials said that there was no evidence any 'foreigners', shorthand locally for al-Qaeda fighters, were among the 18 victims, though they said that 'according to preliminary investigations there was foreign presence in the area'.
Continued on Page 49
Posted by: Dan Darling || 01/15/2006 00:23 || Comments || Link || [8 views] Top|| File under:

#1  Should have just used a MOAB on the village and not told anybody.. After the snow melts somebody might have missed them but by then no evidence...
Posted by: 3dc || 01/15/2006 1:12 Comments || Top||

#2  No, no, no.

No MOAB.

We are precise. We work off the best information we can find, and we always work to get more. We don't deliberately target civilians. We take great care not to harm innocents. We treat people well when they deserve to be treated well. We punish our own when they fail to abide by our moral code.

Splattering a whole village to get Zawahiri isn't worth it. We'll get him eventually.
Posted by: Steve White || 01/15/2006 1:32 Comments || Top||

#3  its amazing--the pakis say we didn't get him--yet yet they don't know where he is--so how do they instantaneously know he's still alive?--can anyone say isi--i believe the villagers--there is no lying in islam--oy--more taquiyya for the kufr--i hope he's paste and mist and some residual dna for id purposes only
Posted by: SON OF TOLUI || 01/15/2006 2:36 Comments || Top||

#4  hours before the strike some unidentified guests had arrived at one home and that some bodies had been removed quickly after the attack. This was denied by villagers

I got 10000 dinars and 7 goats for each of you gents who denies we wuz here.
Posted by: 6 || 01/15/2006 6:28 Comments || Top||

#5  Two things happenedthat night. First, if we did not get Z we got someone important enough to be removed like the article posts. Second we have sent a very clear message to every Pak that lives in a mud hut that if you provide sanctuary to AQ leaders we will send in the helfires. This was a win at the end of the day.
Posted by: 49 Pan || 01/15/2006 9:03 Comments || Top||

#6  And whoever the dinner guests were who got zapped were legitimate targets. I tend to agree with Steve White's sentiments, but I believe that whever the terrorist leader is, that venue is a legitimate target.

People need to understand that the terrorist leader is a liability and that even his presence will hurt them if they let him hang around them. Finding these ideal venues to zap a terrorist leader is extremely difficult and time consuming. Take Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, for example. He hid around civilians, making himself almost impossible to take out. Then he was finally taken out, pretty clean hit, but the Paleos hate the Israelis anyway.

In the case of hits in the NWFP, they will always be difficult to impossible, because the venues will never be ideal. Intel is so hard to get and maintain without compromise. The terrorists are protected by the tribes and the ISI. But it is still a sanctuary for terrorist heirarchy and it cannot allowed to fester. Tough calls, but the terrorist leadership must always be pressured and on the run. The tribes living in the NWFP need to realize that their are harboring a liability and not an asset. Fine line on hits, but judgements must be made and we must keep the pressure on the leadership.
Posted by: Alaska Paul || 01/15/2006 12:57 Comments || Top||

#7  AP and all make good points. Those goat herding warrirs think they are an independent country until someone pops their cap. Bunch of pussies.

In any case...the message now should loud and clear in the wilds of that goat-buggering Province. No more Mister Nice Guy. If you and your family harbor AQ, or taliwhackers you are in trouble.
Posted by: anymouse || 01/15/2006 14:49 Comments || Top||

#8  I understand the MOAB sentiments, but think on balance Steve is right. For OUR sakes

We are precise. We work off the best information we can find, and we always work to get more. We don't deliberately target civilians. We take great care not to harm innocents.
Posted by: lotp || 01/15/2006 17:10 Comments || Top||

#9  And, then we do what we need to do to find and bring to justice (dead or alive) the SOBs who are urging terror on innocents around the world.

That's also for our own sakes ....
Posted by: lotp || 01/15/2006 17:11 Comments || Top||


2 NGOs sacked in Pakistani riot, 30 arrested
Thousands of angry tribesmen ransacked offices of two NGOs and a government body, and damaged shops in Inayat Kallay of Bajaur Agency on Saturday. They were protesting against the killing of civilians in Friday’s US air strike on a village.

Scouts and Khasadar Force used teargas and fired gunshots to disperse the mob while the law enforcing agencies detained at least 30 protesters. Eyewitnesses said thousands of tribesmen gathered in Inayat Kallay town near the Pakistan-Afghanistan border to lodge a protest over the killing of 18 people in Damadola area of the agency.

Different political parties and organisations had given a strike call against the US plane attack. Tribal MNA Sahibzada Haroon Rashid and others spoke on the occasion and called for waging Jihad against America.

Emotionally charged protesters, who assembled at a local market, made faces rolled their eyes chanted slogans against the US government and President Bush for attacking residential compounds.

Speaking at the rally, MNA Sahibzada Haroon Rashid denied the presence of foreigners, including a senior Al Qaeda leader, at the time of the US aircraft attack on Damadola, saying: “No foreigner was present in the area. They (Americans) are responsible for the killing of children and women.”

Witnesses said the protest rally ended peacefully. However, a mob attacked the offices of two NGOs and the National Commission on Human Development (NCHD) in the area. It damaged stationery, computers and set furniture and motorcycles on fire of two foreign-funded NGOs and the NCHD.

Later, the mob attacked a market and damaged audio, video shops and net cafes. Personnel of the Frontier Corps and Khasadar force resorted to teargas shelling and fired gunshots in the air to disperse the crowd. Sources said the authorities had arrested 30 tribesmen allegedly for damaging public and private property.
This is the Pak version of 'peaceful'.
Posted by: Dan Darling || 01/15/2006 00:21 || Comments || Link || [4 views] Top|| File under:


More details on the Bajaur Body Count
Osama bin Laden’s second-in-command, Dr Ayman al-Zawahiri, was invited to a village in the Bajaur area but was not present there when aeroplanes, in a CIA-supported operation, hit three houses on Friday and killed 18 civilians, official sources said. “There is no indication that he (Zawahiri) was there,” a senior official said. “Probably there was an intelligence botch- up.”

Most of the victims of the air strike on the houses at the foothills of Damadola village, about 25km to the northeast of Bajaur regional headquarters, Khaar, were women and children.

A source said the operation was launched on the basis of an intelligence report that Al-Qaeda No-2 was amongst the few invited to a dinner in one of the three houses at the night of the attack. Besides Zawahiri, the source said, two local clerics, Maulvi Faqir Mohammad and Maulvi Liaqat, both wanted for harbouring foreign militants, had also been invited to the feast.

Incidentally, it was Faqir Mohammad who delivered a fiery anti-Pakistan and anti-US speech at the collective funeral of the civilians killed in the Friday action. The clerics left the village at around 12.30am and the air strike came at around 3.15am.
Missed them by that much.
The source said the intelligence reports indicated that the Egyptian surgeon (Zawahiri) had been visiting Bajaur for about a year and security agencies had been trying to keep an eye on his movement over the past few months.

Another reason for Zawahiri’s visit to the Bajaur village was to meet his family, the source said. “Bin Laden’s deputy is married to a woman from Mohmand tribe who, with her children, lives with her father in the border area between Bajaur and Mohmand tribal regions,” the source said.
Oh really? Then he'll be back at some point.
But it had been quite sometime since Zawahiri visited his family or met his in-laws, the source added. Zawahiri carries a $ 25 million bounty on his head and has eluded capture.

While intelligence officials desperately searched for clues and indications of Zawahiri’s presence during or before the strike, confusion was further compounded by reports that some bodies, apparently those of foreigners, might have been removed by elements close to them soon after the attack.

A senior security official said foreign militants had frequently been visiting Bajaur and even Abu Faraj al-Libbi, said to have been No. 3 in Al-Qaeda hierarchy, had told interrogators that he had lived in Bajaur. He recalled that an Uzbek militant had been arrested from Faqir Mohammad’s house in last April with laptop computer and improvised explosive devices.

The source said Maulvi Liaqat, soon after the attack, removed seven bodies, said to be of foreign nationals. Investigators are trying to ascertain the veracity of this report and establish the identity of the foreign ‘guests’ killed in the attack. There is another report that another cleric, Maulvi Atta Mohammad, removed four bodies, said to be of people from Punjab, and buried them at an undisclosed location.

If true, it would put the death toll in Friday attack at 29, including the 18 civilians.
Posted by: Dan Darling || 01/15/2006 00:20 || Comments || Link || [7 views] Top|| File under:

#1  a ha--ayman came for some local young nookie from his tribal wife--pocohontas--and an inhospitable clan feudster or some such dimed him out to the company--if they really got him look for some happy abdullahs buying primo real estate in cap ferrat next summer--25 mill buys some really kewl bord de mer digs
Posted by: SON OF TOLUI || 01/15/2006 2:46 Comments || Top||

#2  This article has the ring of a lot of truth to it - I would guess that if there is a Mrs. al-Zawahiri in the area that it's probably a political marriage with the local tribal leaders, though I'd be kind of curious as to why she hasn't been "disappeared" yet given all of the effort the US has gone to in order to take custody of Binny's wives.

One other note is that we know that Mohammed and Liaqat were in Damadola and skipped town ahead of the attack (thank you, Mahmoud the Weasel) but the article doesn't indicate whether or not Ayman was with them when they skipped town.
Posted by: Dan Darling || 01/15/2006 3:00 Comments || Top||

#3  The local jihadis are sitting around the camp fire and decide its time to cause the americans some international heartburn. Here's the plan: convince the dupes at CIA Zawahiri will be in Bajaur on a certain date, time and location. If and when the CIA strikes killing a few innocents the jihadis scream bloody murder. The americans come away with egg on their face. Their collective will to fight is diminished another notch. They then become overly cautious to a fault. The americans will think twice or three times, long and hard, before crossing the afghan border into pakistani sanctuary. Their will to act is frozen. The pacifist anti-war Dems are given fresh propaganda to use against Bush. All in all its a win-win for the jihadis.
Posted by: Joluck Snaque8678 || 01/15/2006 7:05 Comments || Top||

#4  If Zawahiri was invited there, he is respected and approved of there.

You cannot separate the jihadis from the culture that nourishes and feeds them.

I do not care that civilians died. If they wish to live they need to change their culture pronto and instead of inviting jihadis, kill them.
Posted by: anon1 || 01/15/2006 9:07 Comments || Top||

#5  only those who don't pay attention will think that this strike was a bad thing. Unless of course, you are routing for the Islamists to win.

Besides, the real question is not did we miss him by that much, but will we ever hear from him again?
Posted by: 2b || 01/15/2006 11:13 Comments || Top||

#6  If they invite Zawahiri to their village, they get what they get. They are lucky it wasn't a dozen 5,000 lb JDAMs.
Posted by: bigjim-ky || 01/15/2006 11:14 Comments || Top||


4 arrested for murder of Shia leader
GILGIT: The Northern Areas police said on Saturday that they have arrested four members of an extremist organisation for the murder of Shia leader Agha Ziauddin Rizvi on January 8, 2005. Sources told Daily Times that the four men belonged to the banned Lashkar-e-Janghvi.

A police team conducted 'a successful raid on a tip-off and arrested Nawab Alam, Akhtar Jan, Abdul Sadiq and Muhammad Anwer alias Moaviya'. The arrests were made on Saturday morning. The accused were declared proclaimed offenders in June last year and Rs 1.5 million were offered for information on their whereabouts. He said that the accused were arrested without any resistance.
Posted by: Fred || 01/15/2006 00:14 || Comments || Link || [4 views] Top|| File under:

#1  Fodder for the next installment of the Wolf Freedom Brigade's weekly confessional television show? Y'know, the one that's New and Improved! Now with unbruised participants! Kewl!
Posted by: trailing wife || 01/15/2006 12:11 Comments || Top||


20 killed by security forces in Kohlu
A tribal leader claimed that at least 20 people were killed as security forces continued attacks on villages in Kohlu on Saturday. The situation in Dera Bugti and Sui remained tense, but no official confirmation of civilian casualties was made. Mir Balach Mari, a member of the provincial assembly, said that security forces continued their attacks in the Kahan, Daman, and Shmail, Sordu and Renkh villages, where at least 20 people were killed. He said that forces present on the ground also attacked villages with mortars that created havoc among the local population. He said that many people were forced to leave their homes since military operations began on December 17.

Meanwhile, former Balochistan chief minister Mir Humayun Mari said that security forces had begun indiscriminate shelling in Kohlu.
Posted by: Fred || 01/15/2006 00:09 || Comments || Link || [4 views] Top|| File under:


Pakistan ‘heavily involved’ in Bajaur air strike
The Washington Post has quoted a source as saying that Pakistan was “heavily involved” in the air strikes in Bajaur Agency on Friday. “This would not have happened without Pakistani involvement,” the Washington Post quoted an unnamed source as saying about the missile attack on the Pak-Afghan border that killed 18 civilians, including women and children.

Earlier reports that Al Qaeda’s second-in-command Ayman al-Zawahiri was among those killed, have been discredited by now. The same source said that the attack was planned and executed by a combination of Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) officers in Pakistan and Pakistani officials. “This would not have happened unless they had pretty precise information that the right target was at that location,” a US military source told the newspaper. He cautioned, however, that it was possible that Zawahiri got out of the building before it was hit. The source said that US forces, which had been tracking Zawahiri for the past two weeks, will probably know more once the bodies are examined.
I'm not convinced there was Pak involvement — he's only saying there "had to" be. But if there was, that's probably why Ayman was out taking a leak when the rockets hit.
Posted by: Fred || 01/15/2006 00:00 || Comments || Link || [7 views] Top|| File under:

#1  good. that will turn jihadis against pakistani govt more, divert their firepower internally. Pakis can retaliate far more effectively with torture, communal responsibility, secret police, than the US can.
Posted by: anon1 || 01/15/2006 10:36 Comments || Top||

#2  I'm convinced there was Pak involvement, it explains why Zawahiri had been invited but failed to show.
Posted by: AzCat || 01/15/2006 12:36 Comments || Top||


Political admin arrests 2 journalists for reporting Bajaur situation
The Bajaur Agency political administration on Saturday arrested Daily Times Peshawar Bureau Chief Iqbal Khattak and BBC correspondent Haroon Rashid from the agency’s regional headquarters Khar for reporting the situation in the tribal area.
That's funny. Yesterday Haroon was an MNA, today he's a Beeb agent reporter. Different Haroons? Or is the MNA moonlighting, quoting himself to Beebs?
The two journalists were released after being detained for two hours. Mr Khattak and Mr Rashid were arrested taking photographs of paramilitary soldiers in the main bazaar of the area. The two journalists were taken to the office of Bajaur Agency political administrator Fahim Wazir who reportedly used indecent language with them. Fahim also threatened Khattak and Rashid and warned them not to enter the tribal areas without permission.
Makes you wonder what they're hiding, doesn't it?
He also refused to allow the journalists to file their story and said that he be shown what they were going to report in advance. Khattak and Rashid refused to comply.
Posted by: Fred || 01/15/2006 00:00 || Comments || Link || [6 views] Top|| File under:

#1  Or is the MNA moonlighting, quoting himself to Beebs? LOL! "Sources say"
Posted by: 2b || 01/15/2006 22:47 Comments || Top||


17 killed in Nepal fighting
Sixteen Maoist rebels and a soldier have been killed in the biggest battle in Nepal since a guerrilla ceasefire ended this month. The army said on Saturday that the deaths took place in a firefight in Syangja, a Maoist stronghold 225km west of the capital, Kathmandu, two days after soldiers shot and killed 10 rebels in the same area. An army officer said: "Details of the clash are awaited. A search is continuing."

Last Wednesday, a fierce battle erupted between government forces and the rebels in the western town of Dhangadhi, leaving at least seven policemen missing. The clashes erupted after the rebels attacked many government installations.
Posted by: Fred || 01/15/2006 00:00 || Comments || Link || [6 views] Top|| File under:


Iraq
Al-Qaeda in Iraq in disarray
Al Qaeda's influence in Iraq is unraveling, a senior U.S. general based in Baghdad told reporters today during a satellite news conference at the Pentagon.

"Al Qaeda is increasingly in disarray and we have pursued, captured and killed a large number of them," Army Lt. Gen. John R. Vines, commanding general of Multinational Corps Iraq and the 18th Airborne Corps, said.

That news, Vines said, accompanies escalating participation of capable Iraqi security forces in the fight against both foreign jihadists and home-grown terrorists.

"Iraqis are increasingly in the lead," Vines said. "The capacity of the Iraqi security forces is exponentially greater" than a year ago.

Much terrorist influence was removed from Iraq last year, Vines said, as the result of several U.S. military offensives targeted against insurgents operating in Anbar province and along the Iraq-Syrian border.

The Anbar area was a hotbed of terrorist and criminal activity, other U.S. military officials have said, with smugglers assisting foreign terrorists in crossing the Syrian border into Iraq, and on into the Euphrates River Valley or Baghdad.

Terrorists also intimidated Sunni Arabs and other groups living in Anbar province in efforts to keep them from participating in the political process of the new Iraq, Vines said.

Vines said foreign fighters now comprise a small portion of terrorist activity in Iraq, with the majority being disaffected Iraqis who'd been followers of deposed dictator Saddam Hussein. Other terrorists simply don't want U.S. or other foreign troops in Iraq, the general said.

Asked by a reporter about the whereabouts of enemy forces engaged during last year's fighting in Anbar province, Vines responded: "Many of them are dead." The general also said some Iraqis who are tired of violence and other terrorist interference in their lives have begun to attack al Qaeda operatives.

Citing recent intelligence reports, Vines reiterated, "There are a fair number of indicators that tell us, currently, al Qaeda in Iraq is in disarray."

"Does it have the capability to regenerate? Unfortunately, it could," he said. "But we must keep the pressure on."
Posted by: Dan Darling || 01/15/2006 00:19 || Comments || Link || [0 views] Top|| File under:

#1  More than anything else, I think the Anbar Sunnis are running low on motivation. Since it's abundantly clear that the US doesn't want to *rule* them; *and* that there are important Sunnis in the new government, *and* that these guys aren't complaining too much; *and* there are fewer and fewer outsiders to rile them up; *and* even lots more coppers against the local tough boyz and gangs.

I mean, they're running low on their supply of seethe. And there is a big difference between grumbling over your morning coffee and launching a few bullets in the direction of someone who most likely will kill you.
Posted by: Anonymoose || 01/15/2006 9:39 Comments || Top||

#2  The turning point was the first election and a functioning interim government afterwards, I think. The smarter Sunnis realized they were about to seethe themselves out of any power at all. The less smart ones, in many cases, got themselves hlown up or shot -- and increasingly, turned in by their neighbors.

War can't make them democratic but it sure as hell can help set the preconditions for it.
Posted by: lotp || 01/15/2006 9:53 Comments || Top||

#3  YOU DONT SEE THE MSM OR AP PRINTING THIS ANYWAY WHERE ANYONE WOULD READ IT
Posted by: bgrebel9 || 01/15/2006 12:25 Comments || Top||

#4  That's because the MSM is fated to use the California Case which is caps and lower case.
Posted by: 6 || 01/15/2006 14:17 Comments || Top||


Israel-Palestine-Jordan
Mother and son killed in West Bank
Israeli troops reportedly shot dead a Palestinian mother and her armed son in a West Bank village after mistakenly believing they had found a fighters' hideout.

Residents of the village of Rajub say that in the small hours of Sunday morning soldiers fired at a house on the outskirts of the village, where 20-year-old Fawzi Dwaikat was standing guard with a rifle after arson attacks on the family's cars.

Dwaikat and his 50-year-old mother Nawal were killed by shots from the soldiers who apparently believed they had come across a hideout, neighbours said. and he was holding a kitty

The military said initial reports indicated that an army patrol had been shot at from a house in the village and returned fire, killing two people and wounding three. There was no immediate confirmation of the age or sex of the dead, but the army said arms and ammunition were found in the building. bad kitty

On Saturday, armed Palestinians, including off-duty policemen, temporarily halted traffic on two major roads in the Gaza Strip amid mounting chaos ahead of the 25 January Palestinian elections.

With the violence reinforcing Hamas' prospects in the legislative election, US officials warned that millions of dollars of aid could be in jeopardy if the Islamic group joins the Palestinian government.

Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas said Hamas participation in the government is not a US affair.
We are founded on terrorism. Bugger off.
Posted by: Hupomoger Clans9827 || 01/15/2006 12:31 || Comments || Link || [4 views] Top|| File under:

#1  Al-Jihad left out the part about the dead baby ducks.
Posted by: DMFD || 01/15/2006 13:03 Comments || Top||

#2  Scared about the bird flu - duckies are out for the moment.

Some leanings toward replacing with baby lambs.. awwwhhh.

Sex sublimation problem tho'. Fatwa against that. Gotta go with the kitties for the now

Posted by: Hupomoger Clans9827 || 01/15/2006 14:07 Comments || Top||


Abbas: Most Qassams Fall in Palestinian Territory
Mahmoud Abbas: We should not consider the truce a favor that we are doing to others. We are not doing Israel any favor. We are giving a gift to our own people. The truce is for the sake of our people.

What is the use of entering into conflict with the factions now? What is the use of missiles? I would like someone to give me even one benefit. Just one. Yesterday, when I was coming from the Erez crossing, I was greeted by two missiles. One of them hit Abu Iskandar's office. What's the use of that? Ninety percent of the missiles hit our own people. They are fired, then come back and land on our homes - killing and wounding, killing and wounding...

Unfortunately, you in the media do not highlight this fact. You don't highlight this. This must be made clear. Go and see where these missiles land. This is one aspect. As long as this is useless, why are we doing it?
suggesting he wouldn't have a problem if they were more accurate in hitting Israel
Only to say we are resisting? This is not resistance. With these missiles - which kill us - we are giving the Israelis a pretext to send planes to attack us, or to make supersonic booms, making our children deaf and paralyzed, and so on. You must tell the truth. You, the entire media... These missiles - what use are they? But all
you say is: a missile was launched here and struck there... You should...

You are not objective bystanders. You are citizens.
Posted by: lotp || 01/15/2006 00:00 || Comments || Link || [4 views] Top|| File under:

#1  NO Mr. Abbas you see if you cant control your own nation and people why should anyone even consider negotiating with you. Hell man they might aswell negotiate with me couple billion in donations to my party "dimwaleo" and I can put a couple thousand flunky-terrorist, ehh police, yolo's on the pay roll as long as they dont have to do anything exept cash the check its all gravy. Why does the international community continue to prop up a leader that is nothing Abbas dont lead no country or people he has no power to control, more less make agreements. Before any negotiations or support is given to any person first thing is they should prove they are in charge and when they say something it happens.
Posted by: C-Low || 01/15/2006 9:36 Comments || Top||


Southeast Asia
Indonesia busts 4 JI members linked to Top
Police arrested four suspected militants, three of whom had links with an alleged Malaysian terror chief blamed for a series of bloody bombings in Indonesian since 2002, media reports said on Sunday.

Police were not immediately available for comment on the arrests, which the reports said took place on Friday in central Java province.
"We can say no more!"
The Jakarta Post said three suspected militants arrested in the town of Semarang had ties with Noordin Top, who is believed to be a senior member of the Al Qaeda linked terror group Jemaah Islamiyah. Another suspect was detained in nearby Klaten district, the report said.

No other details were immediately available.

Under Indonesia’s anti-terror laws, police can hold suspects for up to seven days before having to charge or release them. Police often do not immediately release news of the arrests for fear other suspects may go to ground.
Posted by: Dan Darling || 01/15/2006 00:22 || Comments || Link || [0 views] Top|| File under:


21 killed in Myanmar rebel clashes
At least 15 Myanmar soldiers and six Indian insurgents died and dozens were seriously wounded in heavy fighting to evict the rebels, a separatist leader said on Saturday. "So far we have killed 15 Myanmar soldiers and lost six of our cadres," rebel leader Kughalo Mulatonu said by telephone from a location near the India-Myanmar border where the offensive took place this week. "It is no longer mere fighting but a full-scale battle with the junta using mortars and heavy weapons on us," said Mulatonu, who heads the main faction of the separatist National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN).
"National Socialists! I hate those guys!"
The group is fighting for an independent tribal homeland in India's northeastern state of Nagaland. It claims to have some 50 camps and 7,000 rebels in Myanmar's northern Sagaing Division, which borders Nagaland.
Posted by: Fred || 01/15/2006 00:20 || Comments || Link || [1 views] Top|| File under:


Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Latest Western Intel on Iran: 3 years out and counting

Iranian scientists are expected to start work this week on the highly technical task of enriching tons of uranium to a level where it could be used in the production of atomic weapons, say the latest reports received by western intelligence agencies.

The work is to be undertaken at the top-secret Natanz uranium enrichment facility 90 miles north-east of the capital, Teheran.

The very existence of the plant was concealed from the outside world until two years ago, when an Iranian exile group produced details of its work.

Intelligence sources say Iran will begin feeding converted uranium into 164 centrifuges at Natanz this week. That could enable it to create enriched uranium of sufficient quality for nuclear weapons production within three years.

Previous estimates of the minimum time required had ranged from five to 10 years.

Iran's unilateral decision to resume enrichment is by far the most critical development in its latest stand-off with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the United Nations-sponsored body responsible for enforcing the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).

As a signatory to the NPT, Iran is obliged to provide the IAEA with a comprehensive breakdown of all its nuclear activity, which Teheran insists is purely for the development of an indigenous nuclear power industry - despite Iran having one of the world's largest known oil reserves.

But the discrepancies that have appeared in declarations to IAEA inspectors - which included concealing the existence of the Natanz complex - have increased suspicions that Iran is well advanced in its clandestine programme to build a nuclear weapon.

Nuclear experts working for the intelligence agencies have concluded that it now has the resources necessary for developing a nuclear weapon.

"Iran has spent the past 20 years scouring the world to acquire all the means of production and materials necessary for building nuclear weapons," a senior western intelligence officer told The Daily Telegraph.

"The big intelligence debate now is not whether Iran can build a bomb, but how long it will take them to build it."

Despite concerted attempts by western intelligence to prevent them acquiring nuclear equipment, the Iranians have managed to import key components.

Latest reports suggest that Iran has at least 1,000 tons of uranium -"yellowcake", the oxide of uranium that can be enriched to create weapons-grade uranium.

It was acquired from Niger and South Africa in the late 1990s. When processed, that quantity of yellowcake could provide enough material for five nuclear bombs.

The Iranians have also obtained key components for processing the yellowcake and technical expertise from A Q Khan, the controversial scientist regarded as being the "father" of Pakistan's nuclear bomb.

By far the most alarming acquisition from Pakistan, according to western intelligence assessments, is the P2 centrifuge, the highly sophisticated device necessary for enriching uranium to weapons grade.

In order to reach the advanced stage needed for building an atomic weapon, it is necessary to connect a number of centrifuges so that they form a "cascade".

When they were finally allowed to visit Natanz two years ago, IAEA inspectors were alarmed to discover that the Iranians had managed to construct a cascade. This comprises 164 centrifuges, which are based on Pakistan's P2 design.

Any doubts about the effectiveness of the devices were banished when soil samples taken from the site by IAEA inspectors showed traces of weapons-grade uranium.

If the nuclear programme were genuinely aimed at developing nuclear power, there would be no need to process weapons-grade uranium.

Asked to explain the soil samples, the Iranians provided the rather lame excuse that the traces had inadvertently been imported from an unidentified foreign power - believed to be Pakistan - when the centrifuges were purchased.

This is only one of the many glaring inconsistencies that have appeared in the Iranians' submissions to the IAEA, which has been powerless to prevent their relentless pursuit of nuclear technology.

As a consequence Iran now has all the means of production and materials to proceed to the final weapons stage.

That process will begin this week when scientists resume work on processing uranium to weapons grade at Natanz.

Much of the preparatory work has already been done at the Isfahan nuclear conversion plant.

Work resumed there last year when President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ordered the removal of IAEA seals, unilaterally breaking the Paris Accord of November 2004.

This was negotiated with the European Union as Iran promised to suspend its nuclear activities until IAEA inspectors had satisfied themselves that Teheran's nuclear intentions were purely peaceful.

Isfahan has the capacity to process 300 tons of yellowcake a year, and before work was suspended in 2004 it was known that 37 tons had been developed to make uranium hexafluoride (UF6) gas. UF6 is a key component in achieving weapons grade.

Once the UF6 is produced, it is transferred to Natanz where it is fed into the centrifuges to enrich uranium to weapons grade.

Exactly how much UF6 has been produced since the Isfahan seals were removed last August is unknown, although conservative intelligence estimates suggest there are sufficient stocks of UF6 for 30 kilos of enriched uranium. The warhead used at Hiroshima contained 25 kilos.

The only question remaining for western intelligence is to assess exactly how long it will take the Iranians to complete the process.

"We just don't know how efficient the Natanz plant is at enriching uranium," said an intelligence official.

"This is a very complex and highly sophisticated process that requires a great deal of technical ability."

IAEA officials have estimated that it will take Iran three years to produce weapons-grade uranium once the Natanz plant resumes work.

Given that its Shahab-3 ballistic missile system has the range to hit southern Europe, it is clear that the threat posed by Teheran's hard-line regime is significant and urgent.
Posted by: Captain America || 01/15/2006 21:22 || Comments || Link || [7 views] Top|| File under:

#1  "That could enable it to create enriched uranium of sufficient quality for nuclear weapons production within three years."

So Iran in 2006 can enrich at about the speed of the US in 1942? Does that make sense?
Posted by: Penguin || 01/15/2006 22:15 Comments || Top||

#2  The same sources predict that Pakistan could well have a nuclear weapon by as soon as 2008!
Posted by: Anonymoose || 01/15/2006 22:37 Comments || Top||

#3  Didnt the Norks break the seals on their processors in early 03' and was showing off weapons grade in 04' or was that stuff they worked during the cheat time frame?

And then this jewel::
"Exactly how much UF6 has been produced since the Isfahan seals were removed last August is unknown, although conservative intelligence estimates suggest there are sufficient stocks of UF6 for 30 kilos of enriched uranium. The warhead used at Hiroshima contained 25 kilos."

Is that saying the Iranian's have a WW2 bomb NOW or in 3yrs?

If I am not mistaken I think that while the EU/UN were talkin the Iranians have in piece meal brought thier process back on line as the material moved down the line the Natanz is the last stop so does the 3yr clock start 2yrs ago or today?

I say bomb everything we know, the leadership, the military, any places we may suspect in Iran, and then sit back hit at will opportunity sites while we contain Iran and figure out what the hell we are going to do with it or who is worth negotiating a peace with if the "revolution" doesnt materealize. Worst case senerio with the current leadership gone, military crippled, nuke program gone, and no fly zone overhead a humbled Mullah leadership would be a huge improvement.
Posted by: C-Low || 01/16/2006 0:33 Comments || Top||


Anti-US rally in Beirut turns violent
Lebanese riot police have fired smoke grenades and sprayed water to disperse dozens of students protesting against the visit of senior US diplomats to Beirut. The protest turned nasty on Saturday, when security forces tried to clear protesters who gathered outside the government headquarters in anticipation of a visit by David Welch, the US assistant secretary of state. Welch and Elliott Abrams, a US deputy national security adviser, began a trip to the region last week.
Side note: Cheney, Bush 41, Burns, and now Welch and Abrams. All in the Middle East capital cities at the same time. Buckle your seatbelts, 'Burgers.
Some of the protesters, waving Lebanese flags and carrying placards protesting against US influence in Lebanon and the Middle East, pelted police with stones. One placard read: "Welch is not welcome in Lebanon". Aljazeera reported that police used tear gas to disperse the anti-US demonstrators near government offices. The demonstrators mostly belonged to the Baath Party, the Syrian National Social Party, Hizb Allah and the Amal Movement.
Posted by: Hupomoger Clans9827 || 01/15/2006 11:44 || Comments || Link || [4 views] Top|| File under:

#1  gracious thanks for the clean up
Posted by: Hupomoger Clans9827 || 01/15/2006 12:16 Comments || Top||

#2  Dozens, huh?
Well, that proves they represent the majority.
Posted by: bigjim-ky || 01/15/2006 13:01 Comments || Top||

#3  Dozens? I could work up a better anti-US crowd at the local community college -- at a faculty meeting.
Posted by: Darrell || 01/15/2006 13:39 Comments || Top||

#4  Dozens?!? Hell, you can get a better crowd than that at Berkeley with about 15 minutes notice. And that includes the ugly naked protestors and the giant puppets.
Posted by: Shieldwolf || 01/15/2006 14:21 Comments || Top||

#5  more Baathists, too
Posted by: Frank G || 01/15/2006 14:23 Comments || Top||

#6  Some were in the Anal Movement ? Aren't they all in the Anal Movement ?
Posted by: wxjames || 01/15/2006 21:27 Comments || Top||


former Syrian VP forms Govt in Exile
BERLIN - Former Syrian vice president Abdel-Halim Khaddam, a fierce critic of President Bashar al-Assad, told a German magazine he was forming a government in exile and believed Assad would be forced from power this year....He said he would be ready to work with both Islamist leaders, whom he called "part of the rich Islamic mosaic that defines the basic character of our country" and the Baath Party.

"I would not rule out any political group that sticks to the basic rules of democracy," he said. "One should not make the mistake with the Syrian Baath Party that the Americans made with the Iraqi Baath Party," he said.
i.e., he is against abolishing the Baath Party; he simply want to lead it instead of Assad leading it
"The majority of Baathists in Syria have long ago turned against the regime.
not sure if that's true but I do think that the Saudis and Egyptians have turned against Assad.
"They see the government's mistakes every day," he said.
Posted by: mhw || 01/15/2006 10:57 || Comments || Link || [7 views] Top|| File under:

#1  ehhh we may send a few bombers over to Syria when we move on Iran, I remember hearing about captured GPS units that still had the start point locked in great for a cruise missle cluster munition or two and if some accidentaly vered off and hit Assad well sh*t happens.

I dont know about this guy anyway the fact that he is supported by the French alone says alot not for the better either.
Posted by: C-Low || 01/15/2006 16:53 Comments || Top||

#2  I dont know - if he truly favors a represntative deomcracy like the Orange Revolution, and de-fanging Syria, then who cares if the French back him? Liberty is the objective - and a liberated Syria is one less piece of the region for the axis of evil in the region. I'll settle for a Qaddafi-like change, with a rapproachment to the US. One less thing for us to worry about, no more haven for Hezbollah and Hamas, Lebananon gets space to become a democracy again, and that gives us that much more to pressure to use on Iran.
Posted by: Oldspook || 01/15/2006 17:06 Comments || Top||

#3  Oldspook I dont know no saying just that because france likes him he is automaticly bad but deserves a little more digging, And he is a Bathist of the same stripe as Assad he just got outwitted and seems to now be a oportunist I read somewere that he had a major hand in crushing the Syrian democracy movement during his time. Some quotes just from this piece that is woresome

"He said he would be ready to work with both Islamist leaders, whom he called "part of the rich Islamic mosaic that defines the basic character of our country" and the Baath Party.
Islamist are the basic character of Syria // that sounds pretty damm freindly to Hamas, Hezbollah, AQ ect...
"I would not rule out any political group that sticks to the basic rules of democracy," he said.
This is a little promising however depends on interpitation.
Posted by: C-Low || 01/15/2006 18:02 Comments || Top||


Jundallah spokesman threatens to kill Iranian troops
I very much doubt that these guys are al-Qaeda, but my guess would be that they're likely a combination of Baluchs and Iranian Sunnis who want to send a message to Ahmadinejad that they aren't going down without a fight. They aren't anti-American for one, and from what their mouthpiece sez they may even be open to working with us against the mullahs.
Deep in the lawless triangle connecting Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan, eight terrified Iranian soldiers are being held hostage by a Sunni group that is vowing to "slaughter" them if Teheran does not bow to its demands.

"We will chop their heads once our deadline is over," Abdul Hameed Reeki, chief spokesman of the Jundallah or Brigade of God group, told the Sunday Telegraph, slowly drawing an index finger across his neck to demonstrate the seriousness of his intent.

The deadline for the men is tomorrow.

The emergence of a fanatical Sunni group operating inside Iran's south-eastern border poses a startling new threat to the country's Shia clerical regime.

It already faces a crisis with the West over its nuclear ambitions, the risk of pre-emptive Israeli strikes and the undermining by a Sunni-dominated insurgency of the pro-Iranian regime which has begun to emerge in neighbouring Iraq.

Now, Iran's own Sunnis, who number six million of the country's 68 million population and are the majority in some south-eastern provinces, are becoming restless - and groups like Jundallah are emerging from the shadows.

The eight members of the Iranian border security police were kidnapped by the group near the Gadarnahouk post in the Sarawan region and south-eastern city of Zahedan last month. Now, they find themselves being offered as bargaining chips in exchange for the release of 16 of their captors' colleagues, jailed by the Iranian government.

In his first media interview, Hameed, 27, said: "If they release our men, we will release soldiers but if they don't, we will chop their heads off and will send them as a gift to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad [the Iranian president]."

The desolate plains of Ribat, which straddle the border with Pakistan and are infested with bandits, drug traffickers and rebel tribesmen are the perfect place for an insurrection.

Armed with assorted rifles, hand grenades and a few anti-aircraft guns, the group has been operating from Iran's lawless borderlands for the past four years.

They claim to have killed 400 Iranian soldiers in hit-and-run operations. Teheran's Shia government has accused the US of supporting the Sunni group and is trying to persuade President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan to intercede on behalf of the eight hostages.

But the Jundallah deny any link with either the US or the Pakistani government. Although they hold out little hope of their 16 members being freed, they hardly appear to care. "If they hang all the 16 of our colleagues, we do not mind because we know they would be martyrs and will go straight to heaven," said Hameed.

Killing the hostages might be necessary, he suggested, to deter Iranian soldiers from killing innocent Sunnis, who he claimed were being persecuted by Mr Ahmedinejad's hard-line regime. "We will cut them, cut them and cut them until they ask for the mercy and Teheran is compelled to give us our political rights," he declared.

He said that Iran, which announced this week that it was breaking seals on three nuclear plants in order to resume sensitive nuclear fuel cycle work, was just a "screwdriver turn away from manufacturing a bomb". He added: "Once they do it, they will become a mad elephant and will be a real threat to the world peace."

Although Jundallah had just 1,000 trained fighters, he said, it had the dedication needed to defeat the Iranian army - particularly if some help were to prove forthcoming from the West.

"Our determination is mightier than the mountains and if we are provided with a little back-up from outside, we have the guts to take over, if not Teheran, but at least the Sunni majority province of Iranian Baluchistan within a week's time," he said.

Another option, he added, was to assassinate Iranian leaders, perhaps even Mr Ahmadinejad. The group has already been accused by the Iranian government of an attack on presidential security forces last month.

It supplied two compact discs to the Sunday Telegraph, showing chilling footage of their captives being paraded and threatened.

The group says it is spurred by the way that Iran's 90 per cent Shia majority and its government, dominated by Shia clerics, persecutes its Sunni population and denies them their rights.

"No Sunni has a right to become a president, prime minister or even a minister in the Iranian government," said Hameed.

"Between 12,000 and 15,000 Sunnis in the Iranian Baluchistan province have been hanged and scores jailed since the Shia revolution of 1979," he claimed, adding that human rights organisations were prevented from reaching areas to verify the figures.

"Only the centre of Iran is dominated by the Shia, while Sunnis are in the majority along three sides of the border and all of them are victims of the reign of terror."

All the senior figures of Jundallah had been motivated to found and join the group by injustices they had experienced personally, said Hameed. Its leader, Abdul Malik Baluchi, 25, launched the group after his brother and uncle were killed in separate encounters with the Iranian police.

Nasir Kurd, 28, said he joined after his brother was convicted and hanged on "trumped up" charges and his wife was raped and killed in front of him by Iranian soldiers. The Iranian government was offering a $1 million reward for information leading to his arrest, Hameed said.

Asked whether the satellite telephone he was holding might not lead to his being located, he allowed himself a smile. "We are not fighting against America," he said.

Support for Jundallah was growing, he said. "There are hundreds of others who are desperate to sign in, but we ask them to wait because we do not have enough weapons or camps."

Hameed said Jundallah would not be satisfied until full political rights had been secured for Iran's Sunnis and a more democratic government installed. "This is just the beginning We will fight till the day of persecution is over."
Posted by: Dan Darling || 01/15/2006 00:58 || Comments || Link || [7 views] Top|| File under:

#1  ya gotta luv islam--its the state of nature plus
Posted by: SON OF TOLUI || 01/15/2006 3:12 Comments || Top||

#2  The West can take the high road, and say anyone who kills captured prisioners is a criminal, and should be hunted down as such.
Posted by: plainslow || 01/15/2006 12:47 Comments || Top||

#3  Re: High road--
I concurr, SOT. While it would be fun to give the MM's a dose of their own meds, on the whole we would be better served by making it clear we do not support ANYONE who behaves like a barbarian.

OTOH, we also would not mind if the MM's wound up swinging from a lamp post. After a fair trial, of course.
Posted by: N guard || 01/15/2006 16:58 Comments || Top||

#4  Curiouser and curiouser.
Posted by: wxjames || 01/15/2006 21:40 Comments || Top||


Iran Assembles 5,000 Centrifuges For Nukes
Iran was said to have built more than 5,000 gas centrifuges for its nuclear weapons program. Iranian opposition sources said Teheran built the centrifuges for its nuclear plant at Natanz without the knowledge of the International Atomic Energy Agency and European Union. Natanz has been the leading facility for the enrichment of uranium, a key element in the process to produce nuclear weapons. "Iran has already manufactured as many as 5,000 centrifuge machines ready to be installed in Natanz, which is a clear breach of its agreements with the IAEA and the EU," Alireza Jafarzadeh, a leading Iranian opposition figure, said.

On Jan. 11, Iran began removing the seals on a 164-centrifuge cascade at Natanz. The cascade has been deemed too small for a nuclear weapons program.
Posted by: Fred || 01/15/2006 00:00 || Comments || Link || [4 views] Top|| File under:

#1  How large are these centrifuges?
Posted by: 6 || 01/15/2006 6:34 Comments || Top||

#2  nano
Posted by: RD || 01/15/2006 9:37 Comments || Top||

#3  1 meter wide and 2 meters tall. With proper cooling, a lot can be packed into a small space.
Posted by: ed || 01/15/2006 9:42 Comments || Top||

#4  Fortunately, it does not take much of a blast to knock a high-speed centrifuge out of balance and alignment and to damage its bearings and electrical supply.
Posted by: Darrell || 01/15/2006 10:46 Comments || Top||

#5  Here are the details...
http://www.isis-online.org/publications/iran/natanz03_02.html
Posted by: Darrell || 01/15/2006 10:52 Comments || Top||

#6  I wonder if the sub-stations are underground? Attacking the centrifuges themselves sounds like a Scheweinfurt-like exercise - a panacea target.

/A Harris
Posted by: 6 || 01/15/2006 10:53 Comments || Top||

#7  A clickable link to #5's contribution
It mentions the energy consumption of each centrifuge is low, but how much juice do 5,000 consume? I recall from the Manhattan project that the Washington and Oak Ridge sites produced the basic nuclear materials for the 1st nuclear weapons, and both needed massive amounts of electricity for their work. I suspect the biggest vulnerability of nuclear production is the need to supply electricity & dissipate excess heat, things that are hard to do underground.
Posted by: Flerert Whese8274 || 01/15/2006 11:01 Comments || Top||

#8  So what if they can't build a 20 megaton warhead.
Even a 30 kiloton (like the one used on Hiroshima) is a fairly bad thing for those nuts to have. If they are running 5100 centifuges, it just means they will need more time. Or they will have to go with a smaller yield warhead. Hell, a 5 kiloton bomb would be a big-ass bomb to be going off over Tel Aviv.
Posted by: bigjim-ky || 01/15/2006 11:52 Comments || Top||

#9  I read each centrifuge is comsumes about 40 watts. When Natanz is fully operational (50,000 centrifuges), it's supposed to produce enough HEU for a bomb every 10-15 days. But the kicker is that centrifugue cascades can be put anywhere with a reliable power supply, with tunnels under cities being ideal.
Posted by: ed || 01/15/2006 12:09 Comments || Top||

#10  The longer we wait for a strike, the more fissile product they acquire. They have undoubtedly put the critical infrastructure underground, so support infrastructure is the critical node.

It also seems to me that sabotage of their cash cow is a legitamete goal, like oil pumping stations, oil loading infrastructure, major substations. Oil pumping gear and large transformers are not off-the-shelf items to buy, so they have multiplier effects when down and out. Pipeline control systems can be *ahem* tweaked or fried. If the MMs want to create nukes and meddle with their neighbors in Iraq, they need to understand that their is a price to be paid. They are going through cash like Jack the Pig. They need to get pinched on the cash flow.
Posted by: Alaska Paul || 01/15/2006 13:12 Comments || Top||

#11  Jack the Pig? lol AP - that's a new one for me
Posted by: Frank G || 01/15/2006 13:19 Comments || Top||

#12  What's the resonate frequency of one of these centrifuges?

If its low enough to travel through the earth aways it should both be possible to locate and to overdrive with lots of transducers.

If its higher you should be able to locate with some other techniques...
Posted by: 3dc || 01/15/2006 13:41 Comments || Top||

#13  btw not just sound..
there might be some EM resonate freqs...
Posted by: 3dc || 01/15/2006 13:42 Comments || Top||

#14  Sounds like a job for us!
Posted by: Halliburton Earthquate and Resonance Division || 01/15/2006 14:06 Comments || Top||

#15  Dear Mr. 3dc,

Our interest was "sparked" by your recent comments regarding the possibility of indirectly ... affecting ... Iranian centrifuges.

It "sounds" like we're on the same "wavelength". Please contact us at your convenience to discuss potential technical cooperation between our teams.

Yours,

HE&RD
Posted by: Halliburton Earthquake & Resonance Division || 01/15/2006 14:09 Comments || Top||

#16  40 watts/a stage?

Not 4 KW?
Posted by: 6 || 01/15/2006 14:21 Comments || Top||

#17  low end of a 3way bulb? I'm inclined to agree with Mr6
Posted by: Frank G || 01/15/2006 14:24 Comments || Top||

#18  Exactly 746 watts of electrical power will produce 1 HP if a motor could operate at 100% efficiency, but of course no motor is 100% efficient. A 1 HP motor operating at 84% efficiency will have a total watt consumption of 888 watts. This amounts to 746 watts of usable power and 142 watts loss due to heat, friction, etc. (888 x .84 = 746 = 1 HP).

Source

I think the key is how many RPMs they have to spin at. I recall it being very high.
Posted by: Nimble Spemble || 01/15/2006 14:33 Comments || Top||

#19  Go after their source of income. Play the game they are supporting in Iraq.
Posted by: Sock Puppet O´ Doom || 01/15/2006 15:16 Comments || Top||

#20  Basically thrust, counter thrust and knock them off balance: go on the offensive - standing on defense will be the same as what the west did against Hitler when they let him retake the Ruhr and the Sudeten. We are only enabling a larger war in fear of the carnage the sooner and smaller one would cause.


The first weakness is the pwoer infrastructure needed to run the centrifuges. You cannot do that and hide it easily in athe absence of other infrastructure elements. Power lines, generation, and the heat involved cna stand out if you reduce the background noise.

This is why knocking out the power across Iran is a neccesity as the first OVERT military action. Its the first and foremost action we can take, other than direct action against the sites like Natanz.

The first overt actions should be against Natanz and any other site that would be hosting the centrifuges.

A possible plan of attack would be as follows:

The subsurface elements would all be attacked with burrowing FAE and HE bombs, and surface buildings a wave of fuel-air explosives. The second wave would be HE on the main above-ground "hard" targets 10 minutes after the FAE and penetrators go in. This woudl be followed by a final wave of FAE to complete the collapse of any buildings left from the initial stages - about 30 minuntes (to allow fires to damp down so the FAE will ignite properly. The final leg of the attack woudl follow 10-15 minutes later: the laying of air-delevered anti-vehicle and anti-personnel mines.

The overpressures will destroy most of the structures above ground, and the penetrators combined with FAE will destroy or collapse anything in the bunkers. And the minefields will cause casualties against anyone trying to reach the wreckage, and slow any recovery/rebuilding efforts on the site.

Ask the Taliban about those things and their effects on the CIA cave based bunkers - and the Chechens about the Russian version of these on their buildings.

The reurcussions:

If civilians starve and die at the hands of thier own government as a result of the loss of their power infrastructure, then thats the price they pay for not throwing the bastards out, like the Germans in WW2.

How to prep for the strike?

1) Leaflet the population - let them know that we CAN and WILL reach out and touch them, and for them to prepare to either rid themselves of the nuclear madmen, or be ready to lose thier electricity for years. And remind them that they are lucky its a leaflet and not high explosive - and that the next response will not be nearly as benign.

2) Concurrently with #1, tell the Kurds and coastal arabs we are willing to supply them and back them covertly in any miitary action they wish to take in northern & coastal Iran - and in Turkey too if the Turks don't step up to the plate.

3) Start covert infiltration in much greater force than now, from Aghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq. Set up covert cells, prepare for guerila and special operations support.

Once 1-3 are done, then setp 4 hits:

4) Start interuptions to the power infrastructure with indigenous forces. Transmission line towers, transformer stations and substations, and control centers are wonderful targets - and are almost as effective as taking out the generation capacity. We've been on the recieving end of this in Iraq, time to be on the giving end in Iran.

5) Start assassinations of political & military leaders (from the bottom up) in Iran that are hostile - teach the political class (Mullahs and thier supporters) that there is a blood price to pay, and the bill has come due. IEDs work as well as sniper rounds for this. Another case of "sauce for the goose...". Lets see if Iran can deal wiht the same things its been dishing out - I bet it cannot. Use indigenous forces backed by special operations capacity to do this work - there are plenty in Iran with inclinations to do so, and wiuth training and logistic support they cna be very effective in doing so.

The above will turn Irna into a true quamire much worse than Iraq ever was, with the Mullahs and theri totalitarian henchment on the recieving end - and one important difference: they will not have recourse to a vote by the populace to reduce hoistility like we did in Iraq. They can only crack down harder which will motivate forces against them even further.


Over-all effect:

Kepe them that busy, with the above, and if they still continue thier nuclear activity, then we strike hard with anti-nuclear straieksa gainst their facilities and command centers.

Then add in cruise missles, air strikes and spec ops raids in a hammer blow agains the political infratructure. We can fell the government and halt the nuclear threat they present to the region. Likelyh will result in chaos and anarchy in Iran, wich is regrettable but preferrable to the evil that controls the nation now.

The aftermath would be very messy: we should basically wall them off: mine and shut the borders of Iran and embargo the coasts ecept for humanitarian aid, and let them figure it out on their own how many mullahs to hang from the lamposts.

Tell the Euros: you can do all the rebuilding and get all the oil - as long as you send your own troops to enforce the rules. We are sitting this one out, rebuilding Iraq into the central power int he region as a stable democratic republic,a nd ridding it of its primary source of overt evil are our gifts to the region. The Euros will ahve to do the rest of the work themselves.

Posted by: Oldspook || 01/15/2006 16:08 Comments || Top||

#21  Here's the actual deal on how much juice a seperation plant requires:

The capacity of enrichment plants is measured in terms of 'separative work units' or SWU. The SWU is a complex unit which is a function of the amount of uranium processed and the degree to which it is enriched (ie the extent of increase in the concen-tration of the U-235 isotope relative to the remainder) and the level of depletion of the remainder. The unit is strictly: Kilogram Separative Work Unit, and it measures the quantity of separat-ive work performed to enrich a given amount of uranium a certain amount. It is thus indicative of energy used in enrichment when feed and product quantities are expressed in kilograms. The unit 'tonnes SWU' is also used.

For instance, to produce one kilogram of uranium enriched to 3% U-235 requires 3.8 SWU if the plant is operated at a tails assay 0.25%, or 5.0 SWU if the tails assay is 0.15% (thereby requiring only 5.1 kg instead of 6.0 kg of natural U feed).

About 100-120,000 SWU is required to enrich the annual fuel loading for a typical 1000 MWe light water reactor. Enrichment costs are substantially related to electrical energy used. The gaseous diffusion process consumes about 2500 kWh (9000 MJ) per SWU, while modern gas centrifuge plants require only about 50 kWh (180 MJ) per SWU.


So assuming that the number of SWU/Kg remains constant for each percentage point of enrichment (prolly not a good assumption, but good enough for a back of the envelope calc) and that you need 95% enrichment and 11 Kg of enriched uranium for a bomb (I think that there is a misdirection factor built into both of these publically available numbers, but again, good enough for what I'm trying to accomplish) then I get a minimum of 66,183 KWH per bomb. 1 kilowatt-hour is what you expend when you light ten 100 watt bulbs for an hour.

You don't have to have a real powerful motor to spin up to real high rpms, just a real good transmission. I'm assuming some sort of magnetic clutch. Once again, we are in the world of design tradeoffs. I can spin up a small mass fairly quickly, but it'll take me a long time to make a bomb. Another big factor is how long it takes to load and unload. I'm pretty sure that these babies are spinning in an evacuated chamber. If you can come up with some way to load and unload without breaking your vacuum, then you can speed up things immensely.
Posted by: 11A5S || 01/15/2006 16:34 Comments || Top||

#22  That's a pretty good plan OS, reemphasizing your point that you have to take out the _entire_ power infrastructure, otherwise they just starve the people and keep building bombs.

I also like the idea of turning the minorities and isolating the Iranian core. I was thinking the other day that's exactly what we should have done in Iraq: liberated the Shia and Kurd areas and stayed out of the Sunni triangle. With no oil, Saddam could have been the landlocked dictator of a bunch of psychotic Arabs with no income to pay them or the Mukhabarat. That would have been fun to watch.

All in all an excellent post.
Posted by: 11A5S || 01/15/2006 16:43 Comments || Top||

#23  nice plan OS...I like it
Posted by: Frank G || 01/15/2006 16:45 Comments || Top||

#24  If we can get the State Department appeasers and ass-coverers at CIA out of the way, get solid operational intelligence on the sites, and strategic intel on the weaknesses in the command structure, and HUMINT on the political structure and its pressure points....

Then we should be able to act deciseivly. But we need to act as soon as things are in place - possibly within as soon as 6 months,, probably no more than by mid-November. If we do not tee this up now (steps 1-3) along-side the current diplomacy, and hit it before the Iranians develop and deploy a weapon, this its all for naught - and we will be facing the "War in 2007" scenario that is the subject of another post here - the world economy disrupted, 10s of millions dead in Iran, several million in Israel, and the entire world in turmoil.

But the force must be deleiverd fully and in a sharp blow, not "oozed in" over time. Its akin to Napolean having Ney wander all over the place instead of committing hard and fast early in the battle when that force could have been decisive.

Political will is what it takes. And I don't kow that our current crop of traitors and self-centered powermongers (Howard Dean, Kennedy, Pelosi, Murtha, the French, et al) can allow us enoiugh freedom of aciton to act and do what we need to do to promote liberty and protect the republic.

Posted by: Oldspook || 01/15/2006 16:58 Comments || Top||

#25  OS, I think you're right about involving the minorities and opposition in early takedowns of visible power infrastructure. I would add, probably communications centers too as they would have backup generation of their own I assume.

Ask the Taliban about those things and their effects on the CIA cave based bunkers Just a typo and you meant the other way around - i.e. ask the CIA paramilitaries about the effects that we imposed on the Taliban? Or did I misunderstand?
Posted by: lotp || 01/15/2006 17:33 Comments || Top||

#26  alternate plan

make sure they have a design for a centrifuge that has defects at RPMs above 50k or so

or

bribe several centrifuge operators whose cousin's kids have been jailed by the mullahs to make sure the voltage is unstable

or

make sure the mullah supervisor of centrifuges requires the operators to pray at critical hours when they should be monitoring the operation
Posted by: mhw || 01/15/2006 18:38 Comments || Top||

#27  OS

I was hoping we would start doing as you suggest
at least eighteen months ago.

To my mind, this was one of the key benefits/purposes of our presence in Iraq.

I hope we haven't left it too long.
Posted by: dushan || 01/15/2006 19:30 Comments || Top||


Terror Networks
Al-Qaeda sez al-Zawahiri's alive
Al Arabiya Television reported on Saturday that Ayman al-Zawahiri was alive, quoting a source which it said has contact with Al Qaeda. “A source with contacts with Al Qaeda reiterated to Arabiya that Zawahiri is alive,” the satellite television said.
Posted by: Dan Darling || 01/15/2006 00:26 || Comments || Link || [3 views] Top|| File under:

#1  They'd say that no matter what. Give this a week and we'll see.
Posted by: bigjim-ky || 01/15/2006 11:09 Comments || Top||

#2  Umm not for long..
Posted by: bgrebel9 || 01/15/2006 12:27 Comments || Top||

#3  alive but with a need for a change in loin cloth
Posted by: mhw || 01/15/2006 14:13 Comments || Top||

#4 
Time to talk to the source 'real hard'.
Posted by: Skidmark || 01/15/2006 22:46 Comments || Top||

#5  Sure he is! Can'r wait to hear his next message of hope.
Posted by: 49 Pan || 01/15/2006 23:30 Comments || Top||



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On Sale now!


A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.

Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.

Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has dominated Mexico for six years.
Click here for more information

Meet the Mods
In no particular order...
Steve White
Seafarious
tu3031
badanov
sherry
ryuge
GolfBravoUSMC
Bright Pebbles
trailing wife
Gloria
Fred
Besoeker
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Two weeks of WOT
Sun 2006-01-15
  Emir of Kuwait dies
Sat 2006-01-14
  Talk of sanctions on Iran premature: France
Fri 2006-01-13
  Predators try for Zawahiri in Pak
Thu 2006-01-12
  Europeans Say Iran Talks Reach Dead End
Wed 2006-01-11
  Spain holds 20 'Iraq recruiters'
Tue 2006-01-10
  Leb army arrests four smuggling arms from North
Mon 2006-01-09
  IRGC ground forces commander killed in plane crash
Sun 2006-01-08
  Assad rejects UN interview request
Sat 2006-01-07
  Iran issues new threat to Europe
Fri 2006-01-06
  Ariel Sharon Not Dead Yet
Thu 2006-01-05
  Sharon 'may not recover'
Wed 2006-01-04
  Sharon suffers 'significant stroke'
Tue 2006-01-03
  Iraqi premier, Kurd leader strike deal
Mon 2006-01-02
  U.N. Seeks Interview With Assad
Sun 2006-01-01
  Syrian MPs: Try Khaddam for treason


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