October 9, 2006: Afghan police say they have recently arrested 17 suicide bombers, rounding them up in three different provinces. Only one of them was Afghan. In the last two years, most of the suicide bombers have been Pakistani or Chechen. Interrogation revealed that the 17 recently rounded up had been trained at two camps in Pakistan. One camp was outside Peshawar, the capital of the Northwest Frontier Province (where most of the pro-Taliban tribes live), the other was nearby in the semiautonomous North Waziristan tribal region (where most al Qaeda activity has been detected of late). Pakistani officials complained that these arrests should not have been publicized, and could we please sit down and talk about all this.
The Afghans blame the upsurge in suicide bombing attacks on Pakistan, which they say is tolerating the recruiting and training of suicide bombers. In the last two years, there have been 90 suicide attacks in Afghanistan, killing 160 civilians, and wounding over 500. Some 80 percent of these attacks have occurred in the last seven months. While the Afghans have been complaining, for nearly two years, to the Pakistanis about the terrorist recruiting and training taking place in Pakistan, the situation just continues to get worse. Dozens of suicide bombers have been captured, some of them on the way to carry out their attacks. Interrogations of those suicide bombers always reveals the same story. These guys usually attended a religious school run by Islamic conservatives (often of the Saudi Wahabi form of Islam), who preached hatred of non-Moslems, and Moslems who did not share an appreciation for a conservative form of Islam. The bombers were often infuriated by tales of women in Afghanistan not dressing properly (showing hair, faces, ankles and so on), or being educated in schools that taught other subjects (like reading and writing) than just religion. Taliban terrorists have destroyed 184 schools so far this year, compared to 145 for all of last year. Pakistan blames it all on Afghanistan, insisting that the Pakistani tribal areas are under control. But Pakistan has only gone through the motions of controlling religious schools that teach hatred, and have only shut down a few terrorist training camps.
1) US ultimatum to the UN - Declare terrorism in the name of religion a crime against humanity in 48 hours or be expelled as an organization from US territory.
2) Declare that education in useful life subjects - reading, science, math and free of all indoctrination - is a human right. This will hit the US gummint school / teachers' union complex just as hard as it hits madrassas. Denial of this human right will lead directly to permanant internment in a Gitmo style camp.
3) Send Diplomats backed by commandos to have a jirga with the tribes in Wazoo. Make 'em draw straws, and wipe out the tribe that gets the short straw to show the others where continued exportation of their whackjobs will lead.
Not faster, please. More like yesterday, please...
Posted by: M. Murcek ||
10/09/2006 11:24 Comments ||
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#2
Flatten Quetta for 100 mile circum. and Peshawar for the same. Glass and quiet.
October 9, 2006: NATO has compiled some numbers on the military operations NATO troops have been involved in during the last few months in southern Afghanistan. The NATO force of some 20,000 lost 19 dead, while the Taliban lost at least a thousand, out of a force of 3-5,000. The Taliban have been terrorizing Kandahar, Uruzgan and Helmand provinces, in the south, for the last four months, causing some 80,000 people to flee their homes, at least temporarily. However, NATO combat operations have killed only 53 civilians. Taliban death squads have killed and/or kidnapped several hundred civilians. Over a hundred Afghan soldiers and police have been killed.
Posted by: Steve ||
10/09/2006 09:13 ||
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(KUNA) -- The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) said insurgency has increased sharply in Afghanistan this year with 195 people killed by 78 suicide attack during that period, said NATO spokesman Major Luke Knitting while speaking at a news briefing here on Sunday. The spokesman said, in the past few months, violence has increased sharply across the country. Analysts believe the Taliban are using the tactics being used by terrorists in Iraq.
The Afghan spy agency said the bombers were trained by Uzbek, Chechen and Arab trainers in neighbouring Pakistan and sent into Afghanistan to carry out attacks against Afghan and foreign troops.
Since the beginning of this year, 13 foreign soldiers had been killed in suicide attacks, said the NATO spokesman. During the 78 attacks, 142 Afghan civilians and 40 Afghan security forces, including police and military, had also been killed, said the NATO spokesman. Three days back, the Afghan intelligence claimed they had arrested 17 would-be suicide bombers. The Afghan spy agency said the bombers were trained by Uzbek, Chechen and Arab trainers in neighbouring Pakistan and sent into Afghanistan to carry out attacks against Afghan and foreign troops.
Major Knitting said the NATO forces had beefed up security and their capability to deal with the suicide attacks was growing day by day. He said the militants were using cars and bikes in bombing which often result in civilian casualties. Regarding the progress achieved by the forces from the multinational military alliance to discourage suicide attacks, the spokesman said they had arrested 13 would-be bombers and handed them over to the Afghan government. The NATO forces have formally taken charge of command of the foreign troops across Afghanistan on October 5.
Posted by: Fred ||
10/09/2006 00:00 ||
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#1
"Analysts believe the Taliban are using the tactics being used by terrorists in Iraq."
Remember now the Taliban are not terrorists. Theyre militants using terrorist tactics.
Got it? Good.
#2
On the bright side of this ugly practice by some elements of the ROP:
195 people killed by 78 homicidal-suicidal bombers is not exactly a great kill ratio. If it were say 10 to 1, I'd be very concerned, but this ratio doesn't even match 3 to 1 for the silly Jihadis.
(SomaliNet) The strong regrouping and rearming in Juba regions, south of Somalia by supporters of former ruler of Kismayo city of Juba Valley Alliance and Islamists compelled more people flee from their homes fearing of major conflict between rival sides that will erupt in Bu'ale city, the capital of Middle Juba region where both sides prepare for ground battle
Militia loyal to Col. Bare Hirale, head of Juba Valley Alliance and minister of defense of interim government were advancing to that city...
Reports from Bu'ale city say there was major concern over possible war after militia loyal to Col. Bare Hirale, head of Juba Valley Alliance and minister of defense of interim government were advancing to that city time by time.
Also in Kismayo, reports say whole day, the Islamic Courts troops have been on alert preparing to fight against militia of JVA. Reinforcement Islamist forces were reportedly to have gone to Middle Juba region to consolidate their power over there and resist the forces of defense minister.
Posted by: Fred ||
10/09/2006 00:00 ||
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(SomaliNet) In a catastrophic incident, the Sudanese rebels opposed to a recent peace deal in Sudan's Darfur clashed with the Sudanese government troops near Sudan's border with Chad, officials on both sides said on Sunday-Reuters.
Both the Sudanese government and the rebels blamed each other for initiating hostilities on Saturday...
According to press reports, the rebels said they had captured a Sudanese officer.
A humanitarian source in Chad's eastern city of Abeche said the clash left several fighters from both injured and 77 combatants were at a civilian hospital in Chad on Sunday morning. Both the Sudanese government and the rebels blamed each other for initiating hostilities on Saturday in Sudan's war-ravaged west, and rebels reported heavy fighting. There were no confirmed reports on the overall number of casualties.
Posted by: Fred ||
10/09/2006 00:00 ||
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(SomaliNet) The Islamic Courts in middle Juba region, south of Somalia have detained on Sunday former chairman of Jilib town of that province Abdulahi Moalim Hussein and his deputy Ibrahim Jis after they were alleged of acts against the Islamists. Both men were belonged to former collapsed Juba Valley alliance who handed over the control of the town to Islamic Courts last month peacefully.
The Islamists accused former rulers of Jilib town of having meeting with Somali representatives from UN world Food Program and local Himilo NGO in the town without informing the Islamic Courts.
The Islamists accused former rulers of Jilib town of having meeting with Somali representatives from UN world Food Program and local Himilo NGO in the town without informing the Islamic Courts. Some reports say they were jailed because of contacting with former officials of JVA particular with Bare Hirale, the leader of alliance and minister of defense of interim government. Former ruler of Jilib, a farm land town, which lays under Shabelle river, Abdulahi Moalim had earlier announced he will work with Islamic Courts shortly after they seized the port city of Kismayo in south of Somalia.
Posted by: Fred ||
10/09/2006 00:00 ||
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More on the Religion of Cross-dressers. A BRITISH terrorist suspect evaded capture from the country's police and intelligence services by donning a burqa and disguising himself as a Muslim woman, The Times reported in an early edition of tomorrow's newspaper. According to the London newspaper, which did not cite its sources, the suspect is a male who cannot be named because it could prejudice his trial. He was wanted for serious terrorist offences, and evaded arrest for several days. During those days, details of the man's identity were circulated to ports and airports in an effort to prevent him from leaving Britain. He was eventually caught and is now among the more than 90 terror suspects being held, awaiting trial.
"You in the Wonderbra! Drop the rocket launcher and come out witcher hands up!"
The report comes amid a furore in Britain over comments made by a cabinet minister who appealed for Muslim women to remove their veils. The comments on Thursday by Jack Straw, a former foreign secretary, have triggered a reported surge in abuse against Muslims and divided the government as well as Muslims.
What kind of abuse did his remark trigger, Johnny?
"If this is true then it is the first case of its kind in Britain and an isolated incident," Shahid Malik, an MP for the governing Labour Party was quoted as saying in The Times. "We must not get hysterical about it."
#1
"'If this is true then it is the first case of its kind in Britain and an isolated incident,' Shahid Malik, an MP for the governing Labour Party was quoted as saying in The Times."
Thank God for the omniscience of MPs - we would be lost without them. I'm certainly reassured.
#9
The time has come to illegalize the burqa in all Western nations. No exceptions. The hajib, or headscarf, can remain for now. Full body and face covering garments too easily conceal a terrorist actor and must be forbidden.
"It is an extreme practice. It is never right for a woman to hide behind a veil and shut herself off from people in the community. But it is particularly wrong in Britain, where it alien to the mainstream culture for someone to walk around wearing a mask. The veil restricts women, it stops them achieving their full potential in all areas of their life and it stops them communicating. It sends out a clear message: 'I do not want to be part of your society...
[M]y argument with those Muslims who would only be happy in a Talebanised society, who turn their face against integration, is this: 'If you dont like living here and dont want to integrate, then what the hell are you doing here? Why dont you just go and live in an Islamic country?'"
#16
One of the British news media covering this story admitted that the story had been suppressed for some time, only being published after Jack Straw spoke out against veils/burqas/etc.
#17
Full body and face covering garments too easily conceal a terrorist actor and must be forbidden.
Or, rather than issuing a ban, you could go the other way and assume anyone wearing such a thing IS a potential terrorist. At a minimum a Person of Interest.
#18
Or, rather than issuing a ban, you could go the other way and assume anyone wearing such a thing IS a potential terrorist. At a minimum a Person of Interest.
I like the way you think, eLarson. A splendid alternative in making countries Muslim unfriendly.
BEIJING (Reuters) - China said on Monday it firmly opposed North Korea's nuclear test, denouncing it as "brazen" in unusually strong language, and demanded Pyongyang stop any action that could worsen the situation.
China also urged North Korea to return to six-party talks it has hosted aimed at dismantling the North's nuclear programmes. The talks, which have been stalled for nearly a year, also group South Korea, Japan, the United States and Russia.
"The DPRK has ignored the widespread opposition of the international community and conducted a nuclear test brazenly on October 9," China's Foreign Ministry said in a statement on its Web site. "The Chinese government is firmly opposed to this," the Foreign Ministry said.
The statement used language that was unusually forceful for China, a neighbor and traditional Communist ally of North Korea that has advocated engagement and dialogue over stronger moves such as sanctions. "The Chinese side strongly demands the North Korean side to abide by its pledges on denuclearisation and to stop any action that would worsen the situation," it said.
"Preserving peace and stability in northeast Asia accords with the joint interests of all sides. The Chinese government calls on all sides to respond calmly, and upholds a peaceful resolution through negotiation and dialogue."
Does this mean the Chinese will turn off the oil spigot? Will they stop the trains bringing food into NKor-land? Will they mass troops on their side of the border? Because if they don't any of these things then this press release is just propaganda for world consumption (don't worry, the Dhimmicrats will buy it).
We have relatively few options: a total embargo would help keep the NKors from exporting nukes and nuke technology but might push Kim Jon Il-vis over the edge. And a sanction has to be honored by the Chinese or it's just a waste of time. A coup would be nice but it would have to be organized by the Chinese. Attacking NKor-land simply isn't a viable option, given the 10 to 15,000 artillery tubes pointed at Seoul.
Posted by: Steve White ||
10/09/2006 14:20 ||
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#1
China's denunciation is just so much diplomatic hand-waving. Nothing else.
Attacking NKor-land simply isn't a viable option, given the 10 to 15,000 artillery tubes pointed at Seoul.
Steve, I've asked for and never received even a cocktail napkin estimate of just how reliable all that superannuated "artillery" pointing at Seoul is.
Consider the massive expenditure of labor and money needed to rotate out stale munitions, test fire the emplacements and so forth. I'd bet that less than 10% of those "tubes" are worth more than their scrap metal weight. North Korea's economy is so marginal that there is no way in Hades they've been able to keep that many cannon battle-ready. What's your own estimate? I truly doubt you think all 10-15,000 units can be readily mobilized.
#3
Zen, I'm no artillery expert. Assume for the moment that the NKors have been able to do the work necessary to ensure that 90%+ tubes will fire and that 90% of the ammo will go boom. 10,000 * 0.9 * 0.9 still leaves Seoul a huge mess.
While I'm sure that the US and SKors have some plan for counterbattery fire, Seoul will still be devestated by the time we shut down the NKors. Perhaps someone with more experience will comment on this.
Posted by: Steve White ||
10/09/2006 14:51 Comments ||
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#4
Steve, do you honestly believe that 90% of those tubes are functional? I cannot possibly imagine that they are. North Korea has diverted way too much finances, starving manpower and scarce materiel into their nuclear weapons project. It is more than easy to imagine that refreshing and testing all that artillery has fallen by the wayside.
How many reports have you ever read about the sounds of cannon fire coming from across the DMZ? Zero is my count. I think you can safely cut those numbers by 90%. Which all makes sense in light of Kim so desperately pursuing nuclear weapons. He needs to offset the huge loss of threat from attriting all that artillery.
#6
Even if only 20% are functional, that's still 2-3000 tubes firing 2 shells a minute or 240-360,000 an hour.
Posted by: ed ||
10/09/2006 15:29 Comments ||
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Have they properly stored the charges for the guns? The shells? Are the gun crews trained well enough not to screw up and blow their entire battery up?
OK, not stuff you want to bank on, but I suspect the answers aren't good for NorK.
Posted by: Rob Crawford ||
10/09/2006 15:32 Comments ||
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#8
Even if only 20% are functional, that's still 2-3000 tubes firing 2 shells a minute or 240-360,000 an hour.
Now attrit 80% of the shells then remodify tube functionality stats for destructive misfires in the first few rounds and you have an incredibly lower number. Their ammo is stale, their guns are rusty and their crews are undermanned.
Now add in massive JDAM airstrikes against satellite observed and charted positions within ten minutes of them firing the first round. That should knock off another huge percentage.
Are the gun crews trained well enough not to screw up and blow their entire battery up?
Have the gun crews even been fed within the last two weeks?
#9
Also, Stalinist militaries are fanatics when it comes to numbers and tend to take shortcuts to get there. Example, if Battery A is to shoot X number of mortars in Y minutes, they had better well do it or face the NKor version of the GRU. That means that mortar charges will be stacked up for easy access and shells will be stacked around the tube. One accident and SPLAAT goes that position.
#10
Great point, Shieldwolf. Plus, where does that original number of 10-15,000 tubes come from, North Korean propaganda? I would not put it past them to have created mock emplacements just like those fake "tanks" that were really canopy draped cars in WWII.
#13
Yes, I care about Seoul. I just question North Korea's ability to make good on what appears to be an incredibly exaggerated threat. Consider for one moment what the cost of maintaining 10-15,00 artillery tubes is. We're talking millions of dollars a year, if not per month.
Things are so tight for North Korea, when they walk, their shoes squeak.
#14
I, personally, am willing to trade Seoul now for preventing a mushroom cloud over NYC later. That is where we are at in world history, people; and this Hobson's choice is due in no small part to SOUTH Korea politics of the past 10 years - including their appeasement and support of the NKor regime.
#16
That is where we are at in world history, people; and this Hobson's choice is due in no small part to SOUTH Korea politics of the past 10 years - including their appeasement and support of the NKor regime.
Bingo, Shieldwolf. It's time that South Korea pays the piper for facilitating a threat to this entire globe's security.
#17
Most of that artillery probably can't reach Seoul. The high ground where the artillery tunnels are (I believe) is over 50km away from metro Seoul.
I think NK has only two types of long range guns/bombardment rockets that can do the job, the 170mm "Koksan" gun and the 240mm long-range rockets. These would be only a fraction of the 10,000 artillery weapons.
Most of the artillery would be intended to attack military positions nearer the 38th parallel.
#18
Its artillery forces possessed over 8,300 of the 76.2 mm, 100 mm, 122 mm, 130 mm, 152 mm, and 170 mm howitzers and guns, over 2,700 of the 107 mm, 122 mm, 132 mm, 240 mm multiple rocket launchers, and more than 12,500 anti-aircraft guns.Global Security
Most were made in the 70s and 80s as well as most of the ammunition. Unless China or Russia is giving them new fuzes, a good percentage of them will start becoming duds. I don't know what the failure rate for fuzes in the Soviet/Chinese/NK military is, but for the US 3% is considered very high and can lead to the removal of that entire fuse lot. I imagine Russian/chinese failure rates are higher and the NK much higher than that. As they get older, the fuzes fail more.
#19
That gaggle of cadaverous Generals ("props" is prolly more accurate) that follow Kimmie around could always take care of this problem, and it wouldn't necessarily require ChiCom assistance.
But surely the ChiComs have identified or placed a few reliable agents in strategic places... the signal to proceed is what's lacking thus far. IMHO, if they don't, then it means that the ChiComs want the puppet to continue dancing and this is just another stunt in their foreign policy game.
As AP points out, they could starve this clown out if they wanted to. They could also, IMHO, kill him if they wanted.
#20
Thank you for some real numbers, Darth. Per yours and Buwaya's post, I increasingly call bullshit on North Korea's artillery threat.
.com, I think the only thing preventing someone in that goon squad from knifing Kim in the back is how all the others might interfere to get a big reward from their fearless leader. Like, maybe, some Ding Dongs or Ho-Hos for dessert that night.
#21
Like Shielfwolf, I would be fine trading "Seoul now for preventing a mushroom cloud over NYC later."
However, I spent a week in South Korea about a year ago. Toured the DMZ. Talked to a lot of South Koreans about the North.
I came away with the idea that we should not allow one American soldier to die for Seoul, or any other S. Korean country.
One, a lot of the youngsters hate us. I mean, really hate our presence. They see us as the instigators of the Korean War in the first place. That government that the lefties voted in is in place right now.
The S. Koreans are supposed to be big boys now. I saw withdraw (at least to Pusan), and put our chips into Japan. At least they understand what it's like to be hated by the world community ...
#22
bring our troops out now - let the SKor's face the consequences of their decisions. We need to work with Japan and Taiwan to make China pay, bigtime for their little dog, Toto Kimmy. I'm not so sure the Taiwanese or Japanese don't have "instant access" to nukes.
Posted by: Frank G ||
10/09/2006 19:20 Comments ||
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#23
I don't much give a damn whether South Korea likes us or not. Letting Kimmie have a nuke is not something that should be.
If China and South Korea are truly upset about this, then perhaps they could join us in establishing a blockade of North Korea until Kimmie gets tossed.
Posted by: Dar ||
10/09/2006 19:29 Comments ||
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#24
The question is: Do you feel lucky enough to wager Seoul on it, Zenster?
US intelligence has detected an explosion of less than one kilotonne in magnitude in North Korea but has not been able to determine whether it was nuclear or not, a senior intelligence official said.
The official, who asked not to be identified, said that first-time nuclear tests historically have been in the several kilotonne range. We are aware that there was a sub-kilotonne explosion in North Korea, said the official. We have not been able to determine at this point whether it was in fact nuclear.
Could it be a fizzle?
Posted by: Steve White ||
10/09/2006 14:12 ||
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#2
I agree -- first you learn to builid massive, bulky ones, then you learn how to build ones with a really big kaboom, then you learn how to build ones small enough for a missile or an artillery tube.
Posted by: Steve White ||
10/09/2006 14:36 Comments ||
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#9
So, they've pretty much tested two dirty bombs in their own coal mines. Nice. Did that AQ Khan Learner's Manual come with a money back guarantee?
Posted by: Laurence of the Rats ||
10/09/2006 14:59 Comments ||
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#10
This is very promising news. Like I posted last night:
If Kim has any brains, he built a couple of these sick puppies and should bang off another one in rapid succession to prove he's got some real nuclear firepower.
Otherwise, all he's done is drop his drawers in full view of the world.
Posted by Zenster 2006-10-09 04:25
If this second detonation is indeed nuclear and also of even lower yield, Kim has really screwed the pooch big time. His technology does not work and he has advertised it for all to see. To have impressively demonstrated nuclear capability, he needed something at least on a par with our attacks upon Japan. He is far from that. That pooch is going to have a sore ass in the morning.
#11
They will be back in a few months with an improved bomb design and again a few months after that. The plutonium comes from a 20MW graphite reactor at Yongbyon. They have almost completed building a 200MW there and are building an 800MW graphite reactor elsewhere.
Posted by: ed ||
10/09/2006 15:18 Comments ||
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#12
So, we need to bomb those new reactors, right Ed?
#14
You know, I wonder if the scientists just packed two caves with explosives and then claimed to Kim that the tests were "successful" since they don't have access to the toys that make nukes work.
#15
Actually not. I look at the NK nuclear program as the Kim Family insurance policy. If they sell a nuke and it goes off over a US city, then it will be traced to NK and it's the end of the Kim lineage and much of NK. No percentage in it for the Kim's
Instead it will be used to reduce the army to a more loyal core, ensure any large scale revolt (including the army) can be met with devastation. Secondarily, it will be used used to blackmail countries and the designs will be sold to anyone who doesn't already have the Chinese-Pakistani designs.
Posted by: ed ||
10/09/2006 15:49 Comments ||
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#16
You know, I wonder if the scientists just packed two caves with explosives and then claimed to Kim that the tests were "successful" since they don't have access to the toys that make nukes work.
Darth, there is a vast difference between the seismological trace of a nuclear blast and that of conventional explosives. There is no known method of mimicking an atomic explosion.
#17
What is funny about this is that the Chinese over the past 15 or so years have been making noises about how much of Korea actually belongs to China because of an old Chinese-led kingdom there. I wonder if Bejing is devious enough to let Kimmie piss off the whole world with his little nuke test and then invade to "preserve the world order". It would be hard for anyone to object to the Chinese taking out Kimmie and his boys, especially if the Chinese "leak" materials indicating that Kimmie was talking about selling these new toyz to various terrorist groups. And once hundreds of thousands of Chinese troops are manning the DMZ with South Korea, who thinks the Chinese could be forced to give up their new territory?
#18
Shieldwolf: That's actually a very good point. On top of that if it were to happen then the whole North/South thing would be over. We could actually LEAVE South Korea.
Posted by: Charles ||
10/09/2006 16:05 Comments ||
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#19
We would probably have to pry North Korea out of China's cold dead hands. Which is why we just need to bomb the crap out of it right now while they still don't have any functional nuclear weapons.
I'm sure that, somewhere in the Politburo, there are "ancient" maps showing how everything short of Long Island was once Chinese "territory".
#21
Likely the Chinese would invade and establish a 'new government' (Chinese, but with a Korean face). The new government would petition aid from the international community. China gets territory and resources, somebody else pays for reconstruction, and SKor would go on its merry way.
Perhaps that is another reason why Kim wants a nuke.
#22
Has there been any official confirmation that this WAS a nuclear blast? I've been online only briefly, on and off today. But so far I haven't seen any ... link to one would be appreciated if it exists.
#23
There is no known method of mimicking an atomic explosion.
The 100 Ton Test http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Usa/Tests/Trinity.html
probably came close to mimicking one. Excuse me for being new to this, but as this was all done underground couldn't something like the 100 Ton Test, or something more modern, be used to produce results similar to the real thing?
Not that I really doubt that they were indeed nukes.
#24
Excerpt from the mostly David Frum-written SOTU Address, January 29, 2002:
"Our second goal is to prevent regimes that sponsor terror from threatening America or our friends and allies with weapons of mass destruction. Some of these regimes have been pretty quiet since September the 11th. But we know their true nature. North Korea is a regime arming with missiles and weapons of mass destruction, while starving its citizens.
Iran aggressively pursues these weapons and exports terror, while an unelected few repress the Iranian people's hope for freedom.
Iraq continues to flaunt its hostility toward America and to support terror. The Iraqi regime has plotted to develop anthrax, and nerve gas, and nuclear weapons for over a decade. This is a regime that has already used poison gas to murder thousands of its own citizens -- leaving the bodies of mothers huddled over their dead children. This is a regime that agreed to international inspections -- then kicked out the inspectors. This is a regime that has something to hide from the civilized world.
States like these, and their terrorist allies, constitute an axis of evil, arming to threaten the peace of the world. By seeking weapons of mass destruction, these regimes pose a grave and growing danger. They could provide these arms to terrorists, giving them the means to match their hatred. They could attack our allies or attempt to blackmail the United States. In any of these cases, the price of indifference would be catastrophic.
We will work closely with our coalition to deny terrorists and their state sponsors the materials, technology, and expertise to make and deliver weapons of mass destruction. We will develop and deploy effective missile defenses to protect America and our allies from sudden attack. (Applause.) And all nations should know: America will do what is necessary to ensure our nation's security.
We'll be deliberate, yet time is not on our side. I will not wait on events, while dangers gather. I will not stand by, as peril draws closer and closer. The United States of America will not permit the world's most dangerous regimes to threaten us with the world's most destructive weapons."
These words and their bold call for specific actions seem like a distant era ago. Thank you liberals, leftists, moral and cultural relativists, and assorted anti-American Americans!
#25
as this was all done underground couldn't something like the 100 Ton Test, or something more modern, be used to produce results similar to the real thing?
Similar in destructive potential or kilo-tonnage yield, but their seismic traces will be entirely different and easily distinguished from each other.
#26
So I ask again, has there been official acknowledgement that this WAS a nuclear blast? Or are we taking the statement of intent at face value, in order to use it as an opportunity to pull the reins in on Pyongyang, hard???
#27
When the military was thinking about hiding missles deep underground 20-25 years ago, there was a plan to test the effectiveness by simulating a (presumably Soviet) nuclear blast with conventional ANFO explosives. It may have been more than 100 tons - there were different tests, as I recall.
So - not all energy is created equal? Or does the nuke go much faster than RDX? Why isn't 100 megatons of TNT the same as 100 megatons of nuke?
Yeah, O.K., but 20 kilotons might be possible.
Posted by: Bobby ||
10/09/2006 16:29 Comments ||
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#28
Some expert was on NPR this afternoon talking about exactly that. He said it's awfully difficult for newbies to make nuclear weapons as small as the these explosions seem to be, and it was his theory that the North Koreans soaked 500 whatsis of fertilizer in fuel oil and set it off, to mimic a small nuke. Wouldn't it be fun to announce that that was what happened after all. Not even a nuke test that fizzled, but Mr. Kim Jong Il banging his spoon on the high chair again.
#30
lotp, NK says it was a nuke (in typically creepy, Stalinist cant):
The field of scientific research in the DPRK successfully conducted an underground nuclear test under secure conditions on October 9, 2006, at a stirring time when all the people of the country are making a great leap forward in the building of a great, prosperous, powerful socialist nation.
It has been confirmed that there was no such danger as radioactive emission in the course of the nuclear test as it was carried out under scientific consideration and careful calculation.
Or did you mean "official acknowledgement" from someone we can trust?
#31
TW, I thought the same thing, re small is technically difficult.
Also, if the first bomb was 10 ton as others here concluded, then that would would destroy just a few city blocks. Meaningless as a threat when retaliation would be megaton city killers.
Note, small yield doesn't equate to physically small bomb.
#33
Why isn't 100 megatons of TNT the same as 100 megatons of nuke?
Time to completion for the detonation. Nuclear explosions are almost instantaneous. Huge conventional explosives exhibit much lengthier (tenths of seconds versus milliseconds) ignition rates.
#35
Or did you mean "official acknowledgement" from someone we can trust?
Yes.
I wouldn't be surprised if they set off a real fission device. Small yield isn't the same thing as small form factor though: low yield isn't hard, but putting it into a small package for delivery is.
#36
Hey Zen, can you read seismic graphs? Two spikes, second larger than the first. Even if the ground is collapsing it shouldn't be a bigger event than the first, right?
More likely the lensing explosion followed by the actual nuclear detonation. Notice how the second spike goes off of the chart? Just a guess until I see the true ratio between those two events.
Probably not. H-bomb technology is far more difficult to master than simple fission. Ordinary atomic (versus thermonuclear) bombs still require high explosive lensing charges to compress the shaped fissile components into a critical mass.
#41
Whoa! Look at that chart: the two peaks are almost a minute apart, not hundreds of microseconds apart.
Posted by: Dave D. ||
10/09/2006 17:19 Comments ||
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#42
Wouldn't the cavern collapse be a much longer duration event? It should take more than a few seconds to do so. Even at ten minutes between time divisions on the linked graph, the second spike is still of relatively brief duration.
#44
Good point, David D.. I hadn't taken a close look at the time until just now. Perhaps phil_b is right. Still, it's hard to believe that the cavern collapse is of such significantly greater magnitude than the nuclear event itself, or that it is so sharp.
#45
Very good guess, J.D. Lux. Although that might compromise any direct wiring to the bomb or peripheral sensors. I hope someone with more knowledge checks in. This is really interesting to learn about.
#46
Also, as I said in the other thread, I've *NEVER* heard of this "double pulse" or "double peak" stuff in connection with any seismic signature of a nuclear blast-- only in connection with the light output from the blast (provided it's above ground, of course).
Can you point me to any sources of info on this "double peak" characteristic of the seismic signature? So far I've only been reading in the Nuclear Weapons FAQ, and I'd like more material.
Posted by: Dave D. ||
10/09/2006 17:28 Comments ||
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#47
The second spike was caused by Kimmie stomping because the splosion was not as spectacular as expected.
#50
Here is the section of the Nuclear Weapons FAQ dealing with the "double pulse" characteristic of the light emissions from a nuclear blast. Scroll down to section 5.3.1.2, "Blast Wave Development and Thermal Radiation Emission".
Can you point me to any documentation about anything similar (or similarly unique) in the seismic signature? I've never heard of such a thing, and I want to do some reading...
Posted by: Dave D. ||
10/09/2006 17:45 Comments ||
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#51
I retract what I said. I missed the second narrow spike that covers the background vertical axis.
Note that different seismic waves propagate at different speeds and what we see on the seimograph may not faithfully represent the actual sequence of events.
#56
Estimating the yield is tricky business, because it depends on the geology of the test site. The South Koreans called the yield half a kiloton (550 tons), which is more or lessa factor of twoconsistent with the relationship for tests in that yield range at the Soviet Shagan test site:
Mb = 4.262 + .973LogW
Problem is the NoKO site hasn't been calibrated, so estimates are just that - with huge errors
This is from R. Chindambaram
the strength of the seismic signal is determined by the way the explosive energy couples into the geological medium, and there are strong regional differences. In fact, each seismic station has to be calibrated, and this is obvious from the range of seismic magnitudes reported by various global seismic stations. A small difference in body wave magnitude of a little over 0.2 corresponds to a halving of the yield estimate. And for any underground nuclear explosion, seismic body wave magnitudes are known to range over 1.0 or even more, which indicates the pitfalls in yield estimates from seismic signals, unless they are done carefully and correctly.
Posted by: john ||
10/09/2006 17:58 Comments ||
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#58
That www.newscientist.com article was talking about an ABOVE-ground explosion, and I think the reporter is actually confusing the optical vs. seismic characteristic. The optical effect is very real, and is well-known. But I have NEVER heard of anything similar seismically.
Something authoritative anywhere?
Posted by: Dave D. ||
10/09/2006 18:03 Comments ||
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#59
Here's a great site for P and S wave formation data.
#60
Zen, what I get from that article is that seismic waves produced by an explosion (nuclear or otherwise) are easily distinguishable from earthquakes (which makes sense); but I don't see anything about any sort of "double pulse" characteristic that would enable nuclear explosions to be seismically differentiable from similar-size conventional explosions.
Then again, maybe I'm reading it wrong; it's late, and I'm tired...
Posted by: Dave D. ||
10/09/2006 18:10 Comments ||
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#61
No chance at all that the PAL is testing? This is the blast size of enhanced radiation devices for shells. Doubtful. But the PAL was behind the curve on this stuff.
#62
I've not seen a single thing about any "double pulse" at sites dealing with seismic monitoring, David D.. Must be something to do with air bursts or whatever.
Posted by: Dave D. ||
10/09/2006 18:35 Comments ||
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#64
re 'mimicking' nuclear explosion with conventional explosives:
Conventional explosives, CONVENTIONALLY FUSED, will take a lot longer to generate their bang than a nuclear detonation of the same yield, and would have a lot different seismic response (though I don't know the details). However, it does strike me that the same kind of extremely detailed charge shaping and fuse timing that makes possible the explosive 'lensing' that is essential to implosion-type fission devices (Trinity design, for instance) could be used to simultaneously detonate many small charges to sharpen the seismic response frequency. Why one would bother is beyond me - technologically that issue is the toughest thing about building an implosion device. (The gun-barrel design used for the Hiroshima blast is far simpler, to the point that it was never even tested before use, but you can't really scale it down very well, or increase the yield per unit fuel very much.)
#66
This may have nothing to do with it, but you can mask the seismic signature of a nuclear blast underground by a factor of 70 or so by lighting it off in an underground cavity. If Kimmie was going for yield, he would want to crow about it, so he would want a righteous sized seismic signature.
Posted by: Alaska Paul ||
10/09/2006 22:02 Comments ||
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North Korea's first nuclear bomb test has brought about international condemnation and calls for further sanctions to be brought against the reclusive Communist country.
Pyongyang described its first test of an atomic bomb as an "historic event" aimed at bettering peace and security. It comes just three days after a unanimous call from the UN Security Council for North Korea to abandon its nuclear testing programme.
China, an ally and benefactor of North Korea, called the test "brazen" and urged the country to return to talks aimed at getting it to abandon its nuclear programme in return for aid and security guarantees. North Korea has boycotted the talks, which Beijing has hosted, for almost a year in protest over US sanctions on its alleged illicit financial activities.
Russia demanded that North Korea take immediate steps to abandon its nuclear testing programme, but urged all nations to have restraint following the underground blast. A statement by the Foreign Ministry said the test was fraught with danger for peace, security and stability in the region. It said: We demand that North Korea immediately undertakes steps to return to the nuclear non-proliferation regime and resume six-party talks."
South Korea, a key source of aid and investment in the North, said that it wanted the matter brought to the United Nations, where South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki Moon is due to be formally nominated as UN secretary-general later today. Roh Moo Hyun, the South Korean President, urged his countrymen to remain calm and said that his government will sternly deal with the development. This is a grave threat to peace, not only on the Korean peninsula but in the region," he said.
Japan, which many analysts saw as most directly threatened by any North Korean nuclear test, said that it was considering options for further sanctions against Pyongyang and might push for a new UN resolution. The prime ministers office has been working on options for additional sanctions over the past two or three days, Foreign Minister Taro Aso told reporters.
In a statement, Tony Blair condemned the test as a completely irresponsible act which showed their disregard for the concerns of the region and the wider world. He said: This further act of defiance shows North Koreas disregard for the concerns of its neighbours and the wider international community."
The White House called the test a provocative act, in defiance of the will of the international community. The United States had not taken any military action in response and was not at this point moving military assets to the region, Tony Snow, a White House spokesman, said.
John Howard, the Australian Prime Minister said: "We are outraged that a country that has to rely on the international community to feed its own people, and to bring them back from the brink of starvation, devotes so many of its scarce resources to missiles and nuclear weapons progress."
The European Union presidency said the nuclear bomb test was a threat to regional stability and that it would work with the worlds major powers for a decisive international response. Yeah, guys. This'll be good practice for when Iran shits all over you and pops their own soon.
President Putin said: "Russia certainly condemns the test conducted by North Korea. Enormous damage has been done to the process of nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction in the world."
Shinzo Abe, the Prime Minister of Japan, told a press conference in Seoul: "A North Korea with nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles constitutes a grave threat. Japan will now consider harsh measures." BANZAI!
Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, the Nato Secretary-General, strongly condemned North Koreas nuclear test and called an emergency meeting of the alliances ambassadors. Whole lotta international catering goin on today, I'll bet...
Helen Clark, the New Zealand Prime Minister, said: "North Korea should have no illusion of the gravity with which the international community views its action, Our major concern is the broader security concerns of a nuclearised Korean peninsular," she added. Peace, love and pretty butterflies, Helen...
Benita Ferrero-Waldner, the EU commissioner for external relations, described the test as unacceptable but said that there were no plans to cut humanitarian aid to North Korea. Benita, then shoved her head back up her ass and went back to sleep.
#3
Big deal. So now there a a few million more people with sore fingers from striking them together and saying "shame on you", like my mom used to, to me.
The world just needs to send his generals notes, that he will soon be gone, start fighting for power.
#7
Big freaking deal! What does that mean, the world united? What the hell are they going to do now? Put the freezy hair nut on double secret probation?
SOUTH Korean authorities suspect that the communist state might be preparing a second nuclear test after unusual activities were detected in a rugged area in North Korea today, a news report said.
Kim Seung-Gyu, head of South Korea's spy agency, told parliament that activity involving vehicles and as many as 40 people was under way at Punggyeri in the north-eastern county of Kilju, Yonhap news agency reported.
From 4pm (AEST) today, there have been some unusual movements under way at Punggyeri where we had thought the first nuclear test would be carried out, Mr Kim was quoted as saying.
We have been closely following developments there to find out whether North Korea is moving to conduct a series of tests as India and Pakistan did, he said.
#1
How much do these test cost? How many people in his own country could he feed, without these test?
We haven't attacked him for 50 years, why the heck would we do it now (unless he is close to nuclear missiles)
#5
Oil prices went up slightly on reports that OPEC plans on cutting production. Knowledgeable voices here have said they won't be able to hold to that cut, that individual countries too much in need of cash will cheat. Iran does not and will not have much in the way of spare funds to pay for these little fripperies, surely? Especially after paying to rearm Hizb'allah, and possibly the Palestinians?
#7
Either way, Pyongyang demonstrates its partial independence from China, gains much needed economic breathing space and "Stands Tall".
Unless the third country in the 3-way deal *IS* China.
Posted by: Rob Crawford ||
10/09/2006 11:38 Comments ||
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#8
Bingo RC. I'm beginning to entertain the idea that the convergence is to China's benefit. Who feels strong enough to wait in bait for the islamist war to weaken the west? Who supports Iran and is giggling at this NORK test?
There may be a different wave acoming behind the splodeydopes. Something more wicked this way comes?
#11
China is a major player in world trade. A war in the area, taking the wrong side openly, a crash in the US economy, all these are bad for China.
Today China is a capitalist country with a one party political system. This too will pass.
#12
There will be no effective punishment. Those who wish for nuclear weapons now have several recent examples on how to cross the threshold, and in the case of Pakistan, how to attack the US and get Uncle Sam to pay you billions.
Posted by: ed ||
10/09/2006 13:11 Comments ||
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#13
Drudge is reporting that US sources are talking about a second 'seismic event' from the NK area.
Scenario: Teheran is paying in oil and gas up front for test of a device that either the NORKS or Teheran have engineered, using NORK material. With winter coming Pyongyan is delivering the full package in return for energy. China may or may not be a full partner in the trade, but it's not unlikely they are complicit to some degree.
Teheran will not want to publicly test until/unless they are certain the device will work. Too much to lose, and they have seismic fault lines all over the country.
#15
I thought Iran didn't have enough refining capacity for its own needs let alone NorK's.
I also noticed that both Iran and NorK both seem to like using the phrase "indigenous talent" or something weird like that in regards to developing new weapons. Hmm.
#16
They don't, for oil. They almost certainly have futures contracts that can be transferred via third parties, though, which would result in the shipments from suppliers who do.
It would mean they continue to have shortfalls, but since they are rumored to have stockpiled a fair amount of refined fuels they may be able to keep that from being visible domestically, except where they want to have shortages to punish dissent.
If Kim has any brains, he built a couple of these sick puppies and should bang off another one in rapid succession to prove he's got some real nuclear firepower.
Otherwise, all he's done is drop his drawers in full view of the world.
MOSCOW - Russias defense minister said Monday that North Koreas nuclear test was equivalent to 5,000 tons to 15,000 tons of TNT. That would be far greater than the force given by South Koreas geological institute, which estimated it at just 550 tons of TNT.
The Russian's would have much greater expertise in detecting and judging yield than the South Koreans. Question is can we trust them.
In 1996, France detonated a bomb beneath Fangataufa Atoll about 750 miles southeast of Tahiti that had a yield of about 120,000 tons of TNT.
The U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Geological Survey said it recorded a magnitude-4.2 seismic event in northeastern North Korea. Asian neighbors also said they registered a seismic event, but only Russia said its monitoring services had detected a nuclear explosion. "We know the exact site of the test. The ecological situation is normal, including on Russian territory in Primorye," Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov said, referring to the Russian Far East province that shares a short border with North Korea.
Posted by: Steve ||
10/09/2006 09:03 ||
Comments ||
Link ||
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#1
great
Posted by: bk ||
10/09/2006 9:45 Comments ||
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#2
Surely we have others with detectors besides the USGS, the kind of detectores sensitive to this kind of thing? If the seismic wave went through the Earth several times, well we're on the other side of that, right?
#3
The USGS signal processing is oriented towards earthquakes. I suspect we have quite detailed seismic data on the explosion and know exactly how big it was. Doesn't mean we want to talk about it though.
A lot of the seismometer data is freely available. No doubt, numerically oriented geeks will have a field day with it.
#5
When they did the Cannikan shots at Amchitka in 1971, I was working for USGS in earthquake research in Menlo Park, CA. We watched the 5 megaton shot coming in on the seismographs. Quite lively on the charts.
Posted by: Alaska Paul ||
10/09/2006 17:17 Comments ||
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#6
You can be sure that if we didn't have a detector platform in South Korea already,we flew one in for the event. I'd also wager a bundle that we used our terrain mapping satellites to do a ground penetrating scan of the intervening territory in order to improve our estimates of the yield.
#7
CNN > Senior US INTEL Official > US INTEL can't affirm whether [first]test was a de facto nuke test. Official claims may had been a "SUB-KILOTON" NON-NUCLEAR event producable by using many many tons of TNT = HE's. *IOW, A POSSIBLE "FAKE" NUKE TEST.
#8
A "fake" "nuclear" detonation > implies that starving NORTH KOREA may truly want to break from China's control but is aware of the sensitivities of the Chicommies towards having a potens future reunified KOREAS NOT under either COMMUNISM OR CHINESE CONTROL.
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) -- North Korea said Monday it has performed its first-ever nuclear weapons test. The country's official Korean Central News Agency said the test was performed and there was no radioactive leakage from the site.
#2
I was trying to figure out why Kim would do this (assuming the reports are true). It's not for internal consumptions, as he doesn't give a damn about his people. It's not to pressure the US as this will give him LESS leverage and guarantee the US goes to the UN. It makes China look powerless and foolish - so it's certainly not going to win Kim friends in Beijing.
But, suppose Kim wanted to sell one or more nukes. The buyer would surely want proof that they worked before forking over say 100 million bucks (or more). As for buyers - Iran might decide it wants a nuke sooner rather than later. Also, Syria, Venzuela, even the Saudis. Then there's (non-state) terrorists - such as Al Qaeda, Hezbollah, and Hamas. Sure hope we're watching shipping in / out of North Korea (though a nuke could also go by rail through China).
#4
Removed the dupe thingy. Sheesh. Nothing's real here, anymore. They just edit shit helter-skelter.
Agree, 3dc, merge 'em. It's always a clusterfuck (i.e. 5 guys reposting the same thing for no worthwhile reason) and it would be nice to see it done right, this time, one thread we can all participate on.
#11
Hmmm. Now the USGS is showing some sort of something in North Korea. Magnitude: 4.2. Depth: 0km.
Hmmm.
Anybody know whereabouts their nuke facilities are supposed to be? This isn't Yongbyon. It's closest to Kumho, as shown in this BBC map, but it's not exactly at those coordinates either.
#12
The test wouldn't need to be near their reactor/reprocessing plant. In fact it would be very unlikely to be, as what the one needs (lots of water) is not the same as the other (a very deep dry tunnel).
#13
FREEREPUBLIC.com blogger > CNN News babe asking on whether the USA needs a draft to support any mil option(s), i.e. attack-invasion, against North Korea. *"Successful test/no radioactive leakage" > in COMMIE-SPEAK, a successful test usually means either NO ADMISSION OF CASUALTIES-DAMAGE = MINIMAL/ACCEPTABLE??? CASUALTIES-ENVIRO DAMAGE, i.e. we aren't gonna know the truth yet for many months or even years to come.
#15
yep...sounds like a fizzle.... they gotta be wondering what went wrong. If they'll even admit anything went wrong....
Posted by: Mark E. ||
10/09/2006 1:02 Comments ||
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#16
Remember Richter's logarithmic, but it does appear it under-produced. Here's the Wikipedia entry for Richter and there is a small scale... a 4.5 Richter = approx 5.6 KT, so it looks like they're short.
#17
Re .com's #9 - 100 tons = 0.1 kilotons would be a major fizzle. Supposedly (from earlier speculation, lol) this was a "little-boy" (gun-type) bomb, which should be practically foolproof unless they used too little high-explosive and/or fissionable material. Of course early reports are usually wrong, so we'll just haveta wait 'n see...
#22
"...seismic events over the globe of magnitude 4 and above (corresponding to an explosive yield of about 100 tons of TNT)."
Thats off by at least a factor I believe. A magnitude 4.0 will be approximately 1 kiloton TNT equiv, 4.5 will go up to 6-7 kilotons and 5.0 would be a bit less than Nagasaki.
#27
Economic reprisals against China must begin immediately. Thank goodness this may well have been a below-expectations yield. It will reflect poorly on North Korea's technology. About the only upside to this entire clusterfuck.
#29
If it has to accept the fact that NorK has tested a bomb, I'm sure the SKor's would love for it to be 500 tons. But if it were 500 tons, it could be accomplished by conventional means . . . .
#30
I think that this will eventually be shown to be an almost incredible FUBAR on the part of Kim Jong-il.
I don't think that it's reached the point of being considered 'common knowledge', but Kim just isn't all that smart, really.
I recall Pyongyang's similar mishandling of another situation - when Kim Jong-il admitted to Prime Minister Koizumi about having North Korean agents kidnap Japanese citizens on Japanese soil (and elsewhere) and smuggle them to North Korea to train North Korean spies on how to better infiltrate and undermine Japan.
Kim's gameplan was that his admission to Prime Minister Koizumi on 17 Sep 2002 was going to be greeted with hosannas in Tokyo, diplomatic relations would be established, and that $10 billion in WWII reparation moneys would be shortly forthcoming. The operative word here being '$10 billion' and 'shortly' ... like in 'tomorrow'.
Wrong-o ... with a capital 'W'.
Kim (and his addlebrained advisors) completely misjudged the nature and depth of the feelings of the Japanese populace on this matter and were completely taken aback by the vehemence of their negative response.
I can still recall KCNA's bitching about Tokyo's not forking over the big bucks immediately after the 'two nations' big bosses had already agreed to it and can't understand what the problem is' ... which, by the way, certainly seems to imply a clear lack of understanding of how democratic governments actually operate.
My views on the Kim Family Regime's political sophistication at the international level (as reflected in my thinking then, 'Geez! These guys are really stoopid!') haven't changed all that much since then ... and, if nothing else, are certainly being confirmed by this latest antic.
Posted by: Michael Sheehan ||
10/09/2006 1:58 Comments ||
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#31
Gallery of US Nuclear tests including a few fizzles ranging from 1lb! up to sub-kiloton (eg Upshot-Knothole Ruth - 200 tons).
Posted by: Tony (UK) ||
10/09/2006 2:06 Comments ||
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#32
Strongly worded letter on the way? Lets hope its explosivly woorded, oh and delivered by B-2s.
Posted by: Shep UK ||
10/09/2006 2:35 Comments ||
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#33
I think that President Bush sort of needed this Nork nuke test to actually be able to do something about the Norks. Now let the rest of the world absorb the implications of mad dawg Kimmie owning nukes. Before it was bluster and bull sh*t, sea of fire, spittle, the whole nine yards. Sure it is sort of a fizzle, but now the world faces a madman with:
*nukes (such as they are)to threaten SKor;
*nukes for sale to various regimes for a strong source of foreign exchange.
We are over the theoretical part of NORK nukes and missiles. Now he will be working to put two and two together. The US and Japan cannot allow this to happen. How we deal with it will be interesting. I would imagine sanctions strong enough that it would force Kimmie to deal with the Chicoms or Russians for transshipping rights of *ahem* politically sensitive cargo. We will see how they react to his test.
And you can bet your bottom dollar on dinar that Iran wants some fissile machines ASAP. It's fish or cut bait time, kids. This test, fizzle fissile or not, raises the stakes of the game. Will the world appease or stand firm?
Posted by: Alaska Paul ||
10/09/2006 3:16 Comments ||
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The sequence of events that are about to unfold in the Northeast Asian quadrant will be an excellent mirror of what to expect from the Middle East, should Iran acquire nuclear weapons.
All except for the part about psycho-genocidal-anti-Western regimes running rampant in the region instead of just the two of concern in Asia. However, the nuclearizing of Taiwan, Japan and South Korea are all perfect analogies of what to expect from Saudi Arabia, Syria and Egypt.
So far, very little has been mentioned regarding punishment of the real transgressor, namely, communist China. We need to put in place significant economic sanctions for their role in this diplomatic catastrophe. All of their public handwringing was merely cover for them telling Kim the verbal equivalent of "Wink, wink. Nudge, nudge."
PS: Big hint, Thrinter Throluque4060. Grab a recognizable nym, sit down and type something of actual substance that identifies your own stance and suggestions or content yourself with being labeled as someone who fishes with long lines from underneath a bridge.
#39
SPOD: Everyone needs to represent this as what it is, a huge loss of face for China.
I'm at a loss here. What are the practical consequences of this "loss of face"? Everyone commiserates with China about how "it happens to the best of us"? Does this reduce Chinese credibility in any way? Does it mean that if China masses troops and ships in preparation for the invasion of Taiwan, we don't believe them? Let me submit to you that the "good cop" (China), "bad cop" (North Korea) routine isn't unique to the West and has been part of Oriental intrigues for thousands of years - except the stakes were a little higher than mere prisoner confessions.
#40
SPOD: Everyone needs to represent this as what it is, a huge loss of face for China.
China is making the required disapproving noises because to do otherwise would push Uncle Sam into the realization that North Korea is merely doing China's bidding.
Upon reflection, it just occured to me that this is the perfect time to go in and bomb the crap out of North Korea.
By letting off this dud, Kim has just dropped his pants in the snow. His physicists obviously lack sufficient skill to properly detonate their stores of fissile material so, between now and the next possible test, North Korea is effectively as vulnerable as they ever will be in a military sense.
One can only speculate if an enraged Kim has just trooped out some of his senior scientists to the nearest wall for execution. All the better for us if he has been stupid enough to do that. If Kim has any brains, he built a couple of these sick puppies and should bang off another one in rapid succession to prove he's got some real nuclear firepower.
Otherwise, all he's done is drop his drawers in full view of the world.
#42
Zhang Fei of course the Norks are doing China's bidding as always. Do you think that changes the loss of face? The reaction is going to be something China miscalculated putting it in a weaker position not a stronger one.
The size of the reaction is not important I don't think. Kimmi wants to sell these and a small package is ideal for the intended clients and their intended purposes.
#43
Supposing it's true that China has been giving them the nod for all of this (which I'm having a hard time with, but I don't discount it), why would China let them risk firing off a dud? That would mean their rottweiler baring its fangs and showing it had no teeth after all! Not a very useful tool if you ask me. Then again, there may be reasons why it doesn't matter if Kimmie has his pants down around his ankles for a while. Perhaps China wants NorK to learn their place for example. Maybe China is of the opinion that nobody will have the balls to do anything, or that just SKor won't and will tell the rest of the planet to leave NorK alone (thereby giving them a chance to perfect their design, of course!).
In any case, China has a problem. The Japanese are supposed to be able to go full-on nuclear very quickly.
Also, if Uranium is so hard for them to come by, it would make sense that they would go for the smallest test possible that would verify the design.
#45
Supposing it's true that China has been giving them the nod for all of this (which I'm having a hard time with, but I don't discount it), why would China let them risk firing off a dud?
You have got to be kidding, gorb! When China says, "Shit!", Kim quickly asks, "What color?". Without the communists' constant financial and material aid, North Korea would have imploded years ago, if not decades.
China's ostensible "hands-off" masquerade regarding North Korea is strictly for the purposes of plausible deniability. China is Kim's pimp-daddy and they whore him out for the sole purpose of destabilizing what would otherwise American military domination in Northeast Asia.
China is playing for time as they desperately try to modernize their military. The ban on European exportation of high technology military hardware is really hurting them and has left China with Russia as their only willing vendor. Fortunately, the loser crap that RasPutin fobs off on the Mandarins is second-rate from the moment its paint dries.
Our satellites easily could track movement of nuclear hardware and personnel from China into North Korea. Such blatant facilitating on China's part would rip the mask off of their attempts to play a conciliatory role, thereby stripping them of any diplomatic prestige as a player in the Superpower negotiations over this intentionally trumped up threat.
While China thinks they're being oh so inscrutable, only a retarded blind and deaf third-grader couldn't piece together the backstory of this pathetic little military soap opera. Without the nuclear card to play, Kim would be merely another tin-pot dictator presiding over his pestiferous shithole of a third world nation.
As I mentioned in my last post. This misfire or dud is the last green light we're going to get for intervening militarily in North Korea. If we continue to allow ourselves to be circle-jerked by China while Kim regroups, we'll have lost a vital opportunity to strangle this sick little puppy in the cradle.
Posted by: Bobby ||
10/09/2006 6:01 Comments ||
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#48
I can't help wondering if the Kos Kiddies are in denial of if they are debating whether or not it was a Cheney/Haliburton conspiracy to impact the election.
#51
Gotta agree with phil_b. Woke up, read RB while eating breakfast, had the radio on up until I caught the bus.
RB had people looking up the correlation between the yield and Richter scale results. The radio had one fellow mention that 550 tons "sounds like a lot, but realy isn't". No clue that it might not have worked completely.
Posted by: Rob Crawford ||
10/09/2006 7:20 Comments ||
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#52
Jimmy Carter, Madalene Albright, and Bill Clinton could not be reached for comment.
Posted by: Mark Z ||
10/09/2006 7:26 Comments ||
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#53
I noticed that too, phil_b. The "analysts" on Fox were comenting about how small the bomb was and that means the Norks are much more advanced than anyone thought. I thought at the time it was probably a fizzle. They need to get some real analysts.
Posted by: Deacon Blues ||
10/09/2006 7:42 Comments ||
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#54
Does this mean we not only have to wean ourselves off mid-east oil but cheap Chinese imports as well?
Interestingly enough, Gladys, I was talking to a gentleman who manufactures gadgets just the other day about that -- mostly those freebies with a company name on, or "Bob & Debby's 50th Anniversary". He likes to refer to China as his factory floor. But he went on to say that all his stuff, at least, is really low tech, and the turn-key operation could very easily and relatively quickly be moved to another low cost country. In fact, business had been doing so well that he was looking into other countries to take the overflow. If he isn't alone, and if I understood him properly (not guaranteed when the discussion involves anything connected to money or finance), the change-over from China to elsewhere will be relatively quick, easy and relatively low-cost... except to the Chinese, of course.
The real advantage to being in China, apparently, is legacy (the equipment is already in place and run in, the people trained) and connections (the shipping agents can get the stuff through customs at their end, last container onto a ship about to leave port, and first container off-ship and through customs at this end). For low-tech stuff, that's replaceable with a little effort. The higher-tech stuff is another story, although I believe India is a low-cost option there -- it's just that the change-over would be more difficult and considerably more expensive.
I would really appreciate someone who actually knows what I'm talking about to weigh in here, please!
#56
One wonders if the iranian observer was impressed enough with the demo to believe the "dud" they bought is worth lobbing at Tel Aviv. Ahmadinnajacket may think 4.2 is plenty strong to wake the Mahdi.
#57
Let's see, if I have no test, will they assume I have no capability? Hmmmm. Let's see, would I want to have a huge explosion and use a lot of my fissile materials, or would I want to have a very-small proof-of-capability explosion and save fissile materials for future sale and use? Hmmmm. Let's see, if I have a small test before a big test, would the small test neutralize some of the enemy's political reaction? Hmmmm.
#58
Meanwhile, deep in his underground lair, Karl Rove gives off a menacing "Bwahahahaha!", as election polls show gains for republicans across the board.
#59
TW: But he went on to say that all his stuff, at least, is really low tech, and the turn-key operation could very easily and relatively quickly be moved to another low cost country.
This is 100% true. A lot of companies that are in China today moved their plants from more expensive East Asian countries starting a decade ago. In the 80's, a lot of what is now assembled in China was assembled in South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia. China has gotten a lot of that work because it is much, much cheaper (because salaries are much, much lower). Once Chinese wages approach those of the other countries mentioned (the highest is 1/3 US wages, while the lowest is 1/6 US wages), plants will start moving to those other countries. We have no particular dependence on China. What is now China's trade surplus alone used to be trade surpluses spread out among those countries. In fact, corporations based in those countries have moved plants to China.
#60
Meanwhile, deep in his underground lair, Karl Rove gives off a menacing "Bwahahahaha!", as election polls show gains for republicans across the board. His October Surprise works perfectly!
That's what they're saying over in DU. Clinton kept us safe by talking to the NKorks, while Bush stopped talks causing the NKorks to detonate the bomb pushing the Foley scandle off the front pages before the election. Damm, that Rove is tricky.
Posted by: Steve ||
10/09/2006 9:54 Comments ||
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#61
The problem is (see Captain's Quarters for details) that the yeld, based on seismic data is only 550 tons. Yes, tons. 550 is 1/10 the size of Little Boy and is useless as a deterant. A stealth bomber loaded up with 20 JDAMS does more damage than that little nuke. Not sure what game Kimmie boy is playing here, but he is using firecrackers when everyone else with nukes can turn North Korea into a green, glowing, glass parking lot.
#64
Based on that, Zhang Fe, I can only hope our bomb and missile manufacturers have been at maximum production for a while, to be covered by the Army's recent request to Congress for all those extra funds.
#66
Damage, not blast power Zhang. A 550 Ton blast maybe would take out a couple city blocks. Blast waves petter out pretty quickly and don't give you a lot of damage farther out. Unless your goal is terror, a small nuke is next to useless. You take out one factory. Whoopie. A stealth takes out 10 factories, 5 mobile missile sites, 3 radars and 2 C2 sites. Much more damage over a wider area than a small nuke.
#69
What are the Chinese up to? Isn't the prospect of a nuclear Japan bad for them? No, and it might even be good. I think the Chinese have their eyes on the prize. Before making any military moves, you need to break up your opponents' alliances.
Say in the worst case, Japan gets nukes. So what? Under the American nuclear umbrella, Japan is protected by 2,000 nuclear warheads. If Japan gets 100 nukes, how is that worse for China? In the realm of nuclear warheads, 2,000 might as well be infinity. If the US-Japan alliance holds after Japan goes nuclear, China would face 2,100 warheads. I don't see how that is materially different for China. And if the alliance breaks up*, China just faces 100 warheads from Japan - without a tripwire force and a formal defense pact, Uncle Sam is unlikely to extend his nuclear umbrella to Japan. Once you get past China's self-serving statements, figuring out what it's doing isn't even all that difficult.
* Which is likely, if Japan goes nuclear, given that Uncle Sam's nuclear umbrella - his pledge to meet nuclear attacks on them with retaliatory American nuclear strikes - has been predicated on his East Asian allies not going nuclear themselves, which is why both Taiwan and South Korea gave up their nuclear programs after the US detected them.
#71
Zhang: we still have alliances with Britain and France (although they tend to be less than perfect allies) even though those two have nuclear weapons.
We also have an alliance with Israel, which also has nuclear weapons.
#72
DV: Damage, not blast power Zhang. A 550 Ton blast maybe would take out a couple city blocks.
Let me introduce you to the blast damage from a 2 ton bomb (TNT equivalent) at Oklahoma City. My feeling is that a 550 ton explosion will have much more impressive effects than a 2 ton explosion, which took out a building running a block long - certainly spanning more than just a couple of blocks.
#73
Zhang - Japan has enough Pu to make 50,000 decent sized nukes!
Remember their failed nuke reprocessing for the world scheme that was ended after a flash in the reprocessing center? They still have all that material.
#74
AS: We also have an alliance with Israel, which also has nuclear weapons.
We have an informal commitment to Israel. There is no formal document committing us to Israel's defense. France and Britain were the other two non-Communist major Allied powers in WWII. Japan and Germany were the Axis powers. Totally different circumstances. Note that we stopped Taiwan and South Korea from going nuclear. And we have never given anyone else the permission to go nuclear. Note that apart from the two permanent members of the Security Council, we have not formally included any other nuclear powers under our nuclear umbrella.
#75
Japan won't stop at 100. They will build until they feel they can counter all contingincies.
Just their on hand plutonium stockpile is over 43 tons, or over 6000 Fat Boy style bombs (21 kT) and they can also make certain light isotopes. If you were Chinese, how would you like living next to a thousand medium range missiles that give you less than 5 minutes warning time?
The North Koreans are unlikely to sell their bombs, but they will sell any designs. Each bomb's isotope signature can be traced back to the reactor of origin and the Nork know it. In their minds it is ensure against some fantasy of US invasion and to take pressure off having to feed a million man army. A-bombs are more loyal than starving soldiers. My take is that the US insist that South Koreans stop supplying Kim Jong Il's dictatorship with money, food, fertilizer and equipment. Else withdraw US forces and thoroughly inspect all SK exports to the US for nuclear weapons, with only 1 inspector on duty. Let the South Korean's know their safety cocoon and good life are over. Seize NK weapons exports, cut off money and forcefully discourage any aid to the Norks. Let the Norks collapse and Kimmie's family heads displayed on pikes.
If I was president I would make noises about how unfortunate all this is, but it's now inevitable that all east Asian countries will want nuclear weapons. That's the best chance to stop Chinese expansionism this century. The next best chance is for Americans to stop funding the Chinese economy. Call the policy agressive apathy.
Posted by: ed ||
10/09/2006 12:30 Comments ||
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#76
3dc: Zhang - Japan has enough Pu to make 50,000 decent sized nukes!
Remember their failed nuke reprocessing for the world scheme that was ended after a flash in the reprocessing center? They still have all that material.
Japan wouldn't just make 100 nukes.
A Japan that faces China alone could have 2000 nukes and it wouldn't matter. The point is that Japan wouldn't have US help over its territorial disputes with China. And the US wouldn't have Japan's help over Taiwan.
Note that a large number of Japanese nukes - if it does go nuclear - isn't a given. The Brookings Institution estimates that the US has spent $90b a year - in current dollars - on its nuclear weapons program. Japan doesn't have $90b a year to lavish on its program. Nukes are expensive and need to be rebuilt to stay effective every few years. This is why the Chinese haven't built more and more nukes - it involves really large sums of cash.
Posted by: ed ||
10/09/2006 12:33 Comments ||
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#78
Zhang, let me introduce you to the blast map for a 10 Kiloton blast. This was only a 550 ton blast that the Norks blew. The 10 Kiloton takes out an area of about a square mile. City blocks are usually a square mile.
I stand by my assesment of a couple of blocks being leveled/damaged beyond repair and no more. Enough to be terrifying, but militarily useless.
The Pacific is going to go through some interesting changes (using the Chinese curse here) and may be for the better. If they survive the growth pains...
#79
Note that a Japan that goes nuclear would have to spend a lot more on its conventional forces because it would face China (and the Koreas, as well as Russia) alone. If Japan goes nuclear, it's a major disaster for Japanese security.
#80
Japan has commerical breeder reactors that produce a LOT of plutonium. They also don't need ICBMs, nuclear submarines, world wide satellite coverage, etc. US acquisition costs of a Trident missile was $30 million (double with R&D). Even a Trident is overkill for Japan's needs.
Posted by: ed ||
10/09/2006 12:38 Comments ||
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#81
I give up trying to correct my spelling.
Posted by: ed ||
10/09/2006 12:39 Comments ||
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#82
DV: City blocks are usually a square mile.
You must inhabit some kind of supermegalopolis. Manhattan is two miles wide. It has about 15 city blocks going east to west. That's a little over 200 yards per city block. I can assure you that the Alfred P. Murrah building wasn't a mile long, although it occupies a city block.
#83
Zang, The Pacific is naval warfare territory. Even at 1% of Japanese GDP, its navy and airforce are more than a match for the Chinese. What is more interesting is if fighting starts, who will starve each other out first. And remember the US will be in the thick of things and on Japan's side.
Posted by: ed ||
10/09/2006 12:43 Comments ||
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#84
Note that a Japan that goes nuclear would have to spend a lot more on its conventional forces because it would face China (and the Koreas, as well as Russia) alone. If Japan goes nuclear, it's a major disaster for Japanese security.
You keep asserting this, but I'm still not convinced.
About the cost issues: I suspect that a lot of funny accounting is going on. Also, the US spends a lot of money just to build factories and keep them warm for a while, operating at rates far below their capacity. The Japanese do the same thing, forex. their local assembly lines for F-15 and F-16 derivatives. It would be easy for them to double production at a lot less than double the cost. (There's also instances where the US could do this, with the F-22 and C-17 production lines, IMHO).
#85
"Let me introduce you to the blast damage from a 2 ton bomb (TNT equivalent) at Oklahoma City. My feeling is that a 550 ton explosion will have much more impressive effects than a 2 ton explosion, which took out a building running a block long - certainly spanning more than just a couple of blocks."
Be careful when extrapolating from the OKC bombing.
First, blast damage from large explosions does not vary linearly with the explosive yield: the destructive radius goes according to the cube root of the yield. Thus the radius within which a given level of blast damage occurs with a 550 ton explosion will be roughly 6.5 times the radius from a 2 ton explosion.
Second, the OKC bomb did not do the bulk of the damage to the Murrah Building; gravity did most of the destructive work, because the bomb knocked the main transverse support beam for the front wall of the building off its supporting columns, allowing gravity to pull down the front wall and most of the center portions of every floor with it, from top to bottom.
Had the bomb not been placed (accidently or purposely, I haven't heard) just right to knock that beam off its supports, the damage and loss of life would have been quite a bit less.
I agree with DV's assessment: a 550 ton bomb isn't going to cause catastrophic blast damage over more then a few blocks radius.
Posted by: Dave D. ||
10/09/2006 12:50 Comments ||
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#86
ed: And remember the US will be in the thick of things and on Japan's side.
After the mutual defense treaty is abrogated? Over the Senkakus? Without a tripwire force in Japan? I think you overestimate the willingness of the American public to risk the lives of American boys over foreign territorial disputes when no treaty binds Uncle Sam to an intervention, and no issues of credibility are at stake.
#87
Note that a large number of Japanese nukes - if it does go nuclear - isn't a given.
It it's isn't a given that they won't. They have the materials and tech on hand and will build until they think they can cover all threat contingencies. So in your estimate, how many nukes do you think is enough to wipe out China (just one of the contingencies).
I think a major reason Kimmie went nuclear is that it is so much cheaper, and loyal, than his army. Remember the "Bigger bang for the buck" slogan.
Posted by: ed ||
10/09/2006 12:51 Comments ||
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#88
There is no indication the mutual defense treaty will be abrogated. Instead, it will be strenghtened because the threat in the region will be perceived to have increased.
Posted by: ed ||
10/09/2006 12:53 Comments ||
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#89
Without a tripwire force in Japan?
When did US forces leave Japan?
Posted by: ed ||
10/09/2006 12:55 Comments ||
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#90
The real Chinese problem wrt Japanese nukes is that the US deterrent on their behalf is at its core uncertain. If it came down to brass tacks, would the US risk Chinese retaliation to protect Japan ? The Japanese having their own nukes nail this one down. The same would go for Taiwan btw - when the question came up of the US risking Los Angeles for Taipei.
As for Japanese conventional weapons, I don't see why having more nukes makes Japan need more planes, ships and tanks. Japan is still protected from conventional attack by distance and the ocean, and its trade routes would still be as vulnerable - or not.
#91
ed: So in your estimate, how many nukes do you think is enough to wipe out China (just one of the contingencies).
Shanghai, at 2400 sq miles, is a typical sized Chinese city - defined in China as the geographical and administrative structure just below province - what we would call a county. The complete leveling of Shanghai would take about 200 nukes. China has about 50 cities like Shanghai - some with smaller populations and some with larger ones. To take all these cities out would take 10,000 nukes, more than in the entire (current) US nuclear arsenal*. Note that I've left out military bases, which are pretty spread out and built for survivability, unlike cities, which are densely populated. Probably 2/3 of China's population would survive a 10,000 warhead nuclear strike.
* I tend to think that some of this is intentional. Chinese planners may have figured that densely populated cities were vulnerable to nuclear strikes.
#93
ed: There is no indication the mutual defense treaty will be abrogated. Instead, it will be strenghtened because the threat in the region will be perceived to have increased.
Let me suggest to you there are two possible outcomes - Japan will either stay non-nuclear and in the alliance or go nuclear and cause the US to abrogate the mutual defense pact. I don't think there's a third way. Time will tell.
#94
TW, i rarely know what i am talking about, but i have read on more than 1 occasion China's becoming uncompetitive in that part of the world and companies are looking for less expensive countries.
We can go w/o trinkets for awhile - Santa won't be happy, tho.
This shot, the last Bikini atmospheric test, was an exploratory shot by UCRL attempting to dramatically reduce the size and weight of a nominally 1 megaton warhead. Alumni of the UCRL weapons program from this period have described this test as the "most radical UCRL shot" and an "entirely new concept". This led eventually to the development of the W-47 Polaris missile warhead which considerably reduced the size of megaton class warheads. The degree of novelty can be judged by the range of predicted yields 0.2 kt to 60 kt, i.e. the possibility of complete failure of the boosted primary and the secondary stage was considered possible (0.2 kt is approximately the yield of a boosted primary that fails to boost). The test was a complete success.
The test device had a diameter of 14.4 inches, and a length of 15.3 inches. It weighed 167.5 lb. That's carry-on luggage sized, except for the weight, but is also the result of numerous tests.
Posted by: Bobby ||
10/09/2006 13:20 Comments ||
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#96
Zhang, don't assume 20Kt weapons for an advanced nation like Japan. A US W-88 warhead yields 475 kilotons and weighs less than 800 pounds (including the reentry package). A B-61 gravity bomb is 1.3 MT. While it would take about 50 20kT atomic bombs to work over Manhattan, 2 B-61s will do just fine.
Posted by: ed ||
10/09/2006 13:25 Comments ||
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#97
A: TW, i rarely know what i am talking about, but i have read on more than 1 occasion China's becoming uncompetitive in that part of the world and companies are looking for less expensive countries.
We can go w/o trinkets for awhile - Santa won't be happy, tho.
China's Achilles heel isn't simply rising costs - it's also central government restrictions on foreign investment that have been sidestepped by local government officials but are now being enforced during a recent crackdown on provincial insubordination. The central government is poised to kill the goose that laid the golden eggs. That, as much as rising costs, will send investors to higher cost, but less restrictive environments in other East Asian countries that continue to have lower wages than the West.
#99
Zhang, why would the US-Japan alliance be terminated when Japan acquires nuclear weapons? Did the US-UK alliance end when the UK exploded it's first bomb? And it can be argued the US-Japan alliance is more important than the US-UK. Haven't US-India relations strengthened from cold to warm in the face of increased muslim and Chinese threats? I predict a closer defense and economic alliance with Japan. I wish I could also predict a reevaluation of US-Chinese economic relations, but there are too many top tier people in the US dependent on importing cheap goods from China.
Posted by: ed ||
10/09/2006 13:36 Comments ||
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#100
ed: While it would take about 50 20kT atomic bombs to work over Manhattan, 2 B-61s will do just fine.
That's correct. But that's because Manhattan's land area is only 23 square miles, and the island is roughly 12 miles long and 2 miles wide, just outside the lethal blast radius of a single B-61.
#101
ZF you do realize theres an easier to get around the whole treaty issues with Japan going nuclear right? Japan allows the placing of AMERICAN nuclear devices or missiles on their soil. Same way the Germans did with the Pershing IIs. Sure its gonna inflame a lot of Japanese but I bet you it inflames the Chinese a whole hell of a lot more.
#102
ed: Zhang, why would the US-Japan alliance be terminated when Japan acquires nuclear weapons? Did the US-UK alliance end when the UK exploded it's first bomb? And it can be argued the US-Japan alliance is more important than the US-UK. Haven't US-India relations strengthened from cold to warm in the face of increased muslim and Chinese threats?
Because Japan responded to Iraq by sending 200 engineers who had to be babysat by Australians. Because they have little to no presence in Afghanistan. Because we are not tied by bonds of blood, language and culture to Japan as much as we are to the ABCA countries (America, Britain, Canada and Australia). Because the Japanese, unlike Britain, have spent most of the postwar period being a pain in the butt to Uncle Sam on trade issues - and stuck it to us every time they had a chance. Ditto for the Indians, who stuck it to us in the geopolitical arena as well, and continue to stick it to us on Iran and Iraq, not to mention Afghanistan. Brits are kin. The Japanese and the Indians are just a bunch of hangers-on looking for an angle.
#103
Also, a comment, regarding nuclear bomb strength:
It might take a lot of little nuclear bombs to level a city like Shanghai or Manhattan, but it probably wouldn't take very much at all to wreck the railyards or tunnels to the point where everyone's in danger of starving if they stay and can't easily get out.
For some parts of the world it's worse: they don't have any fossil water left and rely completely on desalination plants. I don't know how many conventional jdams it would take to kill everyone in one of these countries by bombing the plants, but I wouldn't be suprised if they'd all fit in two B-2's.
#104
V: ZF you do realize theres an easier to get around the whole treaty issues with Japan going nuclear right? Japan allows the placing of AMERICAN nuclear devices or missiles on their soil. Same way the Germans did with the Pershing IIs.
That's my preferred solution. Now that would be a blow to China. A reinvigorated defense pact with US nukes on Japan that would nullify any potential future Chinese nuclear blackmail attempt. The Soviets certainly hated having the Pershings around.
#106
Zhang, populations and critical infrastructure are not spread out evenly. Take your example of Shanghai. 12 million people in 2400 sq miles, but the core of Shanghai is 110 sq miles with over 6 million people, or a 6 mile diameter circle. A lot more tractable problem. In case you are wondering, a 1.3 MT airblast has a total destruction radius of 2, a wide spread destruction radius of 5 miles and a 3rd degree burn radius of 8 miles. Tailored to the core of China's largest city pretty well.
Posted by: ed ||
10/09/2006 14:00 Comments ||
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#107
ed: Zhang, why would the US-Japan alliance be terminated when Japan acquires nuclear weapons? Did the US-UK alliance end when the UK exploded it's first bomb? And it can be argued the US-Japan alliance is more important than the US-UK. Haven't US-India relations strengthened from cold to warm in the face of increased muslim and Chinese threats?
Finally, because we know what Britain, Canada and Australia would do if the US came under attack. We have no clue what the Japanese and the Indians would do. That's what it ultimately comes down to.
#108
Zhang Fei:Say in the worst case, Japan gets nukes. So what?
Arrival time, for one thing. Flat trajectory, for another. Cruise missile delivery radius for yet another. Theres a lot to keep the Mandarins awake at night if Japan goes nuclear.
ed: If you were Chinese, how would you like living next to a thousand medium range missiles that give you less than 5 minutes warning time?
Precisely. Unlike the United States, any efforts by China to build a missile defense shield are suddenly all for naught. This one prospect alone represents a huge deterrent. No polar route, no sub-orbital trajectory, just a low and fast incoming cruise missile at tree-top level, flying at Mach velocities with terrain hugging threat avoidance and topologically mapped flight control systems. Thats all.
ed: The next best chance is for Americans to stop funding the Chinese economy.
Which is something Ive already mentioned in this thread and have been screaming about for years.Sadly, our politicians are so bought off by Chinese interests, such a measure will be hard to imagine.
PS: Great post, ed.
Buwaya: As for Japanese conventional weapons, I don't see why having more nukes makes Japan need more planes, ships and tanks.
Which is exactly right. Japan isnt looking to lead a takeover assault on China. All they need to do is inflict massive damage to major port cities that could launch any surface level threats.
Zhang Fei:China has about 50 cities like Shanghai - some with smaller populations and some with larger ones. To take all these cities out would take 10,000 nukes, more than in the entire (current) US nuclear arsenal
One need not level an entire city to alter its operability. One or two well-centered medium weight nuclear detonations will usually cripple a citys core functions like government, transportation and finance.
China would have a lot to worry about should Japan go nuclear. With Chinas complicity in North Koreas nuclear test and weapons manufacturing, we need to encourage Tokyo to develop a similar program. Most ironic of all is how Japans efficient fabrication technology guarantees the reliable production of atomic weapons that will far outstrip anything North Korea could even dream of making.
So what now Bush?
Hey, EinsteinSnereque Gruque3574, sit down, snag a real nym and post about your own position and suggest some solutions or content yourself with being labeled as someone who likes to fish with long lines from underneath a bridge.
Alliances are based on perceived need. Thanks for reiterting the example of closer ties with India even though they were a quasi-enemy during the cold war. In fact Japan has kicked in much more than our allies in Europe, except the UK. While Japan's constitution has banned deployment of combat forces, Japan has helped out quiet ways, like acting as a giant piggy bank in support of Japan-US interests.
Posted by: ed ||
10/09/2006 14:11 Comments ||
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#110
Zenster: Arrival time, for one thing. Flat trajectory, for another. Cruise missile delivery radius for yet another. Theres a lot to keep the Mandarins awake at night if Japan goes nuclear.
China already faces that threat today. As I understand it, American SSN's could have hundreds of nukes over China's cities in less than an hour. My view is that Japan cannot go nuclear and stay within the mutual defense pact. And that is what China is counting on. The end of the pact means US forces move back to Guam - a setback for the defense of Taiwan. It also means Japan faces China alone.
#111
Ed it doesn't make a lick of difference if you got the Tsar Bomba in your inventory if you got no means of delivering it to a target. Now one thing I advise everyone on right now is the USGS still hasn't confirmed a nuke detonation (nor has the Pentagon), SK is confirming it isn't a natural quake either, me I'm going to wait till someone confirms that its got a unique nuclear seismic signature (aka "double spike" and all that).
#113
Zhang, the only one's who can tear up the US-Japan mutual defense treaty are the US and Japan. There is no compelling reason to do so. There are compelling reasons to strengthen it.
Posted by: ed ||
10/09/2006 14:21 Comments ||
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#114
Bush is going to the UN for more handwringing. He will do nothing to stop the appeasement of Beijing wrt preferred trade just like he does nothing about illegal immigration and just like he does nothing about dependence on Arab oil. This is pathetic. If this is all we've got we deserve to get smacked.
I try not to buy stuff that's made in China but it's getting damn near impossible because damn near everything is made in China. It makes me sick.
#115
One of those reasons is technical -- in many areas our research strengths are complementary.
Another is existing arsenal -- the F15-Js that Japan owns have Mitsubishi avionics packages, for instance, on standard USAF air frames.
A third is geopolitical, summed up as "CHINA". And ... as "EU sucking up to CHINA but stiffing Japan to a fair degree on things like the advanced particle research facilities".
#116
EB6305, preferred trade status wasn't given to appease China. It was given because it is in our economic interests overall (but not necessarily in all details) to allow the Chinese to provide inexpensive goods.
The relationship has grown unbalanced because Beijing has by dint of sheer force kept market forces from coming into play WRT the value of the rin. However, they are paying for that with increased costs for oil and other materials. They know they are in a box of their own making, but have been very slow to back out of it in part due to the fragility of their control over parts of their own country in the event of major protests in multiple places at once.
If you don't like dependence on Arab oil, did you lobby Congress heavily to permit drilling in ANWR and off of Florida? To encourage the construction of nuclear power plants to offset use of heating oil in the northeast? Other approaches are going to take a long time.
#117
Zhang Fei:My view is that Japan cannot go nuclear and stay within the mutual defense pact. And that is what China is counting on. The end of the pact means US forces move back to Guam - a setback for the defense of Taiwan. It also means Japan faces China alone.
With all due respect, I call horseradish.
ed:Zhang, the only one's who can tear up the US-Japan mutual defense treaty are the US and Japan. There is no compelling reason to do so. There are compelling reasons to strengthen it.
lotp:Treaties can be re-negotiated. This one will be, I suspect.
Abdominal Snowman:Zhang: we still have alliances with Britain and France (although they tend to be less than perfect allies) even though those two have nuclear weapons.
#120
The relationship has grown unbalanced because Beijing has by dint of sheer force kept market forces from coming into play WRT the value of the rin. However, they are paying for that with increased costs for oil and other materials. They know they are in a box of their own making, but have been very slow to back out of it in part due to the fragility of their control over parts of their own country in the event of major protests in multiple places at once.
Well said, lotp. With their massive bad bank debt, a looming AIDS epidemic and the world's absolute worst rural versus urban per capita income ratio taken into consideration, China is headed for a major economic crash. We must summon the courage and ban their imports for just long enough to precipitate that crash. It's the least they deserve for North Korea.
#121
Japan's going to develop nukes based on this? Are we talking about the Japan with Hiroshima and Nagasaki? And even if they did, would they make it public? All this discussion of Japan going nuke seems like wishful thinking. Japanese politicians would be a lot smarter to use this to loosen the constitutional constraints and develop conventional systems that can be deployed and employed with far less cost and difficulty. The US has demonstrated that nukes have no military value. In terms of the faster, better, cheaper tradeoff, there is no military objective that cannot be accomplished better and cheaper with conventional weapons. So why would Japan want nukes when it can comfortably rest under Uncle's umbrella while expanding conventional forces significantly? I'm thinking special forces SSN's, the first UCAV CV, robotic patrol craft for the edge of Chinese territorial waters, etc. I'd look for the most likely and effective weapons system development from Japan to naval and in systems the US does not have in production.
Taiwan seems a lot more likely to be the onw that goes critical in response.
#122
"...I'm going to wait till someone confirms that its got a unique nuclear seismic signature (aka "double spike" and all that)."
I've never heard of any "double spike" seismic signature with nuclear weapons.
There most certainly *IS* a double-spike characteristic to the light emitted during a nuclear detonation, however; that's how our satellites detect a nuke and distinguish it from other sources like a non-nuclear explosion or the entry of a meteor into the atmosphere.
But AFAIK there is no such double-spike characteristic in the seismic record of a nuclear explosion.
Posted by: Dave D. ||
10/09/2006 14:46 Comments ||
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#123
I think seismologists look at the depth, time and localization of the point of origin and how the waves travel on the surface (weak longitudinal component?).
Posted by: ed ||
10/09/2006 14:59 Comments ||
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#124
"'ve never heard of any "double spike" seismic signature with nuclear weapons.
There most certainly *IS* a double-spike characteristic to the light emitted during a nuclear detonation, however; that's how our satellites detect a nuke and distinguish it from other sources like a non-nuclear explosion or the entry of a meteor into the atmosphere."
Sorry I musta mixed them up with measuring the P and S wave relay times between each other and the ratio of the two to each other.
#125
Earthquakes will not have a tiny, single point of origin either. They will trigger along fractures, or groups of them usually, so the source is at least a little bit diffuse.
Posted by: Laurence of the Rats ||
10/09/2006 15:07 Comments ||
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#126
I think it is probably more easy to spot the envelope of a nuclear blast by the sharp "knee" or rise time its seismological trace exhibits. Conventional explosives have much more slope in their rise time due to slower ignition intervals. A nuclear detonation would probably show a near-vertical rise to peak value and a fairly abrupt decay thereafter.
#127
...preferred trade status wasn't given to appease China. It was given because it is in our economic interests overall...
lotp, I've heard that argument but I'm not buying it because we are compromising our security and our integrity for a buck. As has been noted, there are plenty of other low-rent countries that can manufacture cheap, plastic crap. It's kin to the argument that we need illegal aliens. I think if we're too fat and lazy to mow our own lawns we deserve to lose this country. Besides, if we're so smart, why can't we figure out how to manufacture in this country again? What's the problem, America? Too greedy? Too fat? Too lazy? Too corrupt? Too stupid?
As for oil, I tried to lobby my congressman but then he had to go to prison for accepting bribes. I told him the government should give tax breaks for people who telecommute and companies that allow their employees to telecommute. He never replied. I guess he was too busy with his Rolls Royce or his yacht.
But another idea would be solar panels on every rooftop in the country hooked into an nationwide grid. Laugh if you want but why can't we at least get started on something like that? Drill in ANWR if you want but tell me specifially what's wrong with solar panels on rooftops as a requirement in building codes?
Then again there are the ever popular trains and buses.
But Bush prefers to appease the communist bastards who run China and I think that's no better than Neville Chamberlain's cowardice in the face of Hitler. After all, are these people not carrying on in the tradition of Hitler, Stalin and Mao? Why can't we have a leader who can see these people for what they are and tell them to f@*k off?
#130
But another idea would be solar panels on every rooftop in the country hooked into an nationwide grid. Laugh if you want but why can't we at least get started on something like that? Drill in ANWR if you want but tell me specifially what's wrong with solar panels on rooftops as a requirement in building codes?
Large self-sustaining solar arrays that would power an entire residential house cost tens of thousands of dollars. Even here in astronomically expensive Silicon Valley, right where the solar panels are made, it still represents a significant increase in the cost of a new home.
We are nearing the advent of some incredible new technologies. Imagine if the asphalt shingles or ceramic roof tiles covering your house could be made photo-sensitive. During installation, they are connected into a simple two conductor lattice underlayment that is wired into your home's electrical system.
Now, go to the next generation. quantum dot technology is used as a paint pigment so that all surfaces of your entire house become photovoltaic arrays. This is what the near-future holds. It islight-years beyond super-expensive monolithic silicon or even ribbon polysilicon photovoltaic arrays.
Then again there are the ever popular trains and buses.
No there aren't. Inexpensive land in large quantities led to American cities growing out instead of up. Urban, and especially suburban America is entirely ill suited to mass transit. Only when land becomes too expensive will high density housing make mass transit viable.
Consider how we are currently paving over California's Central Valley, which supplies over 50% of America's fruit and vegetables. Only when that land can make more money growing food will it ever revert back to farmland. Until then, cars still rule the day.
#131
#121: The US has demonstrated that nukes have no military value. In terms of the faster, better, cheaper tradeoff, there is no military objective that cannot be accomplished better and cheaper with conventional weapons.
I think there are several differences here. If the country has no nuclear capability, it would be politically better to use conventional, but you need a serious economy to be able to sustain as the US has.
NorK has no economy or ability to project its conventional forces whatsoever. They don't have the luxury of being able to do things the PC way. So this is the most attractive option from Kim's twisted view of the world.
#132
I know nothing about seismic signatures, but seismic wave frequencies are around the 1-10 Hz range aren't they? How are you going to detect rise time differences between, say, 1 millisec and 1 microsec, when you can't see the high frequency components of those impulses?
#133
"How are you going to detect rise time differences between, say, 1 millisec and 1 microsec, when you can't see the high frequency components of those impulses?"
My guess (as an EE) would be that the sharp wavefront from an underground nuclear detonation would be very apparent fairly close to the site, but would "blur" at long distances. Unless we have listening devices quite close to NK, it might be hard to distinguish between a nuclear explosion and a conventional one of the same yield.
I should think that either one would be distinguishable from an earthquake, though.
Posted by: Dave D. ||
10/09/2006 17:08 Comments ||
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#134
Conventional detonations will suffer just as much in loss of rise time as a nuclear one will. I would suppose that both are attenuated pretty much equally as they travel through geological structures. Therefore, if a nuclear blast is dampened into more of a slope, a conventional one will have even greater slope to it.
#136
Zhang - to destroy China one need only take out the 3-Gorges Dam. If China still limps on fighting after that why a few more dams and a city or two. China has lived in a glass house ever since they built the 3-gorges....
#137
3dc, the area that would be flushed down by a breach in 3 Gorges Dam is not that extensive. It would probably mean several million people dead or displaced, but it would not be an end to China.
Aswan Dam, though, that would be a different story... What would be left from Egypt are the Giza pyramids.
#138
Here's another aspect of Chinese assistance to North Korea that's not generally appreciated. The Chinese authors of "Unrestricted Warfare" recommend providing assistance to terrorists in order to cause problems for Uncle Sam. Now, this idea - based on the strategic principle that the enemy of your enemy is at least your temporary friend - isn't particularly new. What China has done is to combine this strategic principle with another one - having one barbarian fight another.
China is helping America's enemies get nukes, hoping to destabilize and wreck the existing defense treaties that protect its allies, while raising the possibility of a terrorist sucker punch with a nuke at an American military installation or city. And all without any means of directly tracing it back to the Chinese. They have plausible deniability, since they made the required disapproving noises about Kim to foreign reporters and diplomats, while (in the background) actually shielding him every step of the way from any negative consequences.
#139
Which is exactly why we need to crash China's economy right away. They have played their little game and all the while we have held the real trump cards of economic power. It is time to put those cards into play while China's military is still relatively undeveloped. Waiting until China is in space with anti-satellite capability and anti-missile defense will only guarantee a much more destructive scenario.
If our politicians were not so bought and owned by Chinese interests, it would be a lot more simple to finally pull the plug on this insanely one-directional trade imbalance and make China eat their cheap plastic crap for breakfast, lunch and dinner.
As I have always maintained, the communist Chinese are the REAL terrorists. They make the Islamists look like green Boy Scouts. So long as we send endless supplies of American money to China, they will use it to destroy us in any way they can. We are idiots to let them.
#140
Lot of talk here, but not much rational thought. If NKor exploded a nuclear weapon and it only generated the explosive force of 550 tons of TNT, it has to be a dud. NKor doesn't have the manufacturing expertise to develop that small a weapon.
Nuclear weapons are machined to 1/50,000 of an inch tolerance OR GREATER. About the smallest nuke warhead you can build without tolerances of 1/100,000 or greater is 15Kt. The size of our nukes used against Japan were limited by two factors - machining standards and method of delivery. We could have built bigger weapons, but only by greatly expanding the size of the bomb. The two nukes we built were about as large as one could fit into the bomb bay of a B-29. The only other way to get greater yield from a same-size bomb is with more precise machining and manufacturing of both the "bullet" and the "target".
The US has the capability of building really SMALL nukes - about 5Kt or so. It takes approximately 2 pounds of plutonium to make a nuke, unless you do some really serious jinking around. A 2lb plutonium weapon will generate about 8.5Kt of explosive power, if it's done right. Any yield less than that indicates that the Norks had a dud, or only a partial explosion. A partial explosion can be accounted for by impurities in the plutinium, lack of precision milling of the various pieces, the "trigger" or "bullet" not being "fired" at sufficient force, and about 30 other things. The nork explosion was a dud. I'm beginning to think that Khan may have been a very clever man and sold an imperfect bomb plan in the first place. Either that, or he knew the people using those plans couldn't satisfy the exacting requirements nuclear weapons demand.
Posted by: Old Patriot ||
10/09/2006 23:02 Comments ||
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SEOUL, South Korea North Korea performed its first-ever nuclear weapons test Monday, Yonhap news agency reported, citing government officials.
South Korean officials couldn't immediately confirm the report.
South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun has convened a meeting of security advisers over the issue, Yonhap reported, and intelligence over the test has been exchanged between concerned countries.
CountryWatch: North Korea
The North said last week it would conduct a nuclear test as part of its deterrent against a possible U.S. invasion.
The director of South Korea's monitoring center that is watching for a test with sound and seismic detectors declined to immediately comment on the reported test. The U.S. Geological Survey said it had detected no seismic activity in North Korea, although it's not clear if a blast would be strong enough for its sensors.
#3
Russians > Bomb device is approxi 10 foot long + weighs 4 tons. IONews, PRAVDA > LARGE COMET TO HIT EARTH IN LATE OCTOBER. Milyuhns to die, Tsunamis + Destruction to be caused.
South Korean stocks plunged Monday following North Korea's announcement that it conducted a nuclear test.
The benchmark Korea Composite Stock Price Index, or Kospi, fell as low as 1,303.62, or 3.6 percent after North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency said the underground test was performed successfully.
The Kospi was trading 2.6 percent lower at 1,316.39 at 1:10 p.m. in Seoul.
BaWaaaaaaa! >:-) and it's all the Sorks care about too!
Markets in South Korea, the world's 10th-largest economy, have long been considered vulnerable to potential geopolitical risks emanating from the North. The two countries, which fought the 1950-53 Korean War, are divided by the world's most heavily armed border.
North Korea said last week that it planned to carry out a test. Reports of Monday's test have yet to be independently confirmed.
An official at South Korea's seismic monitoring center said a magnitude 3.6 tremor felt at the time of the alleged test wasn't a natural occurrence. The official spoke to The Associated Press on condition his name not be used, because he wasn't authorized to provide sensitive information to the media.
South Korea's Defense Ministry said the alert level of the military has been raised in response to the claimed nuclear test.
_1993: North Korea shocks world by saying it will quit Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, later suspends its withdrawal.
_1994: North Korea, United States sign agreement in Geneva, North pledges to freeze, eventually dismantle, nuclear weapons program in exchange for help building two power-producing nuclear reactors.
_Sept. 17, 1999: U.S. President Bill Clinton agrees to first major easing of economic sanctions against North Korea since Korean War's end in 1953.
_July 2000: North Korea threatens to restart nuclear program if Washington does not compensate for loss of electricity due to delays in building nuclear power plants.
_June 2001: North Korea warns it will reconsider missile test moratorium if Washington doesn't resume contacts aimed at normalizing relations.
_July 2001: U.S. State Department reports North Korea developing long-range missile.
_December 2001: President Bush warns Iraq and North Korea will be "held accountable" if they develop weapons of mass destruction.
_Jan. 29, 2002: Bush labels North Korea, Iran and Iraq an "axis of evil."
_Oct. 4, 2002: North Korea tells visiting U.S. delegation it has a second covert nuclear weapons program, Washington says.
_Nov. 11, 2002: U.S. and key Asian allies - Japan, South Korea - halt oil supplies to North promised in 1994 deal.
_Jan. 10, 2003: North Korea says it will withdraw from Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.
_April 16, 2003: U.S., Chinese and North Korean officials announce talks in Beijing aimed at ending nuclear standoff.
_April 24, 2003: North Korea says it has nuclear weapons and may test, export or use them depending on U.S. actions, Washington says.
_Aug. 27-29, 2003: North Korea joins first round of six-nation nuclear talks in Beijing, which include China, U.S. Japan, Russia and South Korea.
_Feb. 25-28, 2004: Second round of six-nation talks.
_June 23-26, 2004: Third round of six-nation talks.
_September 2004: North Korea refuses to attend fourth round talks, accusing U.S. of "hostile" policies.
_Feb. 10, 2005: North Korea announces it has nuclear weapons.
_July 26, 2005: Fourth round of six-nation talks begins, ends in recess after 13 days with no agreement.
_Sept. 13, 2005: Talks resume.
_Sept. 15, 2005: U.S. blacklists a Macau-based bank for alleged involvement in North Korea's illicit activity such as money laundering and counterfeiting, leads the bank to freeze North Korean assets.
_Sept. 19, 2005: North Korea pledges to dismantle nuclear programs in exchange for pledges of energy assistance; U.S. pledges not to invade and to respect North's sovereignty in an agreement ending talks.
_Nov. 9-11, 2005: Fifth round of six-nation talks.
_Jan. 3, 2006: North Korea says it won't return to talks unless the U.S. lifts financial restrictions imposed for its alleged currency counterfeiting and other illegal activities.
_March 7: North Korean, U.S. officials meet in New York for talks over U.S. financial restrictions.
_July 5: North Korea launches seven missiles into the Sea of Japan, including a long-range Taepodong-2, drawing international condemnation an a later U.N. Security Council resolution condemning it.
_Sept. 26: North Korea rejects further talks on its nuclear program, claims Washington wants to rule the world.
_Oct. 3: North Korea says it will conduct a nuclear test in the face of what it claimed was "the U.S. extreme threat of a nuclear war."
_Oct. 9: North Koreas says it has conducted its first-ever nuclear test.
SEOUL, South Korea Officials from Washington to Seoul are raising the specter of an Asian nuclear arms race if North Korea fulfills its brazen threat to test its first atomic bomb and join the elite club of nuclear powers.
South Korea's Vice Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan said that a test could give Japan a "pretext" to go nuclear next, triggering countermoves by suspicious Asian neighbors in a cascade that upends regional security.
While an arms race is unlikely to dawn the day after a test, long term anxiety abounds....
#16
SPOD: China serious loser. Serious loss of face.
Just like the good cop loses face when the bad cop slaps the prisoner around, right? My take is that China is playing the good cop, whereas North Korea is playing the bad cop - i.e. they're part of a team with China at the lead. Who's the prisoner? I'll give you three guesses...
#23
Can anybody spot any sidearms on Kim's goon squad? You get pretty good profiles of both people walking behind Kim on the left and right. I don't see a holster between them. No speed loaders on their belts, nothing! These saps are decorative.
dem Norks have that strack squared away look eh!
More like: "Yond goon squad has a lean and hungry look; Their stomachs growl too much: such men are dangerous."
#26
So, the big question still remains; What to do about the real puppet master in all of this? Namely, communist China. This whole diplomatic catastrophe is entirely of their doing and they need to be faced with severe economic sanctions for abetting in this trainwreck.
#27
Time for us to give the "generals" the high-sign. Strangle the little twit with your bare hands, if need be. Tell the people he was overcome with joy - or some such shit - and expired of a heart attack. Then move your shithole away from the precipice. This is your big chance to save your families - and your ass.
/PSA
Upon reflection, it just occured to me that this is the perfect time to go in and bomb the crap out of North Korea.
By letting off this dud, Kim has just dropped his pants in the snow. His physicists obviously lack sufficient skill to properly detonate their stores of fissile material and between now and the next possible test North Korea is effectively as vulnerable as they ever will be in a military sense.
One can only speculate if an enraged Kim has just trooped out some of his senior scientists to the nearest wall for execution. All the better for us if he has been stupid enough to do that. If Kim has any brains, he built a couple of these sick puppies and should bang off another one in rapid succession to prove he's got some real nuclear firepower.
Otherwise, all he's done is drop his drawers in full view of the world.
#30
Thanks, tipper, but I had to stop reading at:
"The DPRK is now the fourth-most powerful nuclear weapons state just after the US, Russia, and China. The DPRK has all types of nuclear bombs and warheads, atomic, hydrogen and neutron, and the means of delivery, short-range, medium-range and long-range, putting the whole of the continental US within effective range."
It's just too silly, given their lack of knowledge of other nuclear powers (Britain, France, India, Pakistan, Israel...) and their wild claims based on missiles that don't shoot straight and A-bombs that go "pop".
THE Queensland Government may tighten security at the Gabba for next month's First Ashes Test in Brisbane. It follows concerns over British media reports that last year's London suicide bombers had discussed the possibility of an attack on the Australian and England teams during their Ashes series.
Cricket Australia says neither it nor the England and Wales Cricket Board (ECB) had any knowledge of the claims. But Queensland Police Minister Judy Spence today announced security would be boosted for the Gold Coast Indy race later this month and the State Government would consider similar powers to cover the Ashes, which starts on November 23, if police requested them. "I haven't had the discussion with the police service about that yet," Ms Spence said today. "I know the police have been doing a lot of discussions with the event management people at the Gabba about the requirements concerning the Ashes but if they put that request to us we will certainly consider it."
Under the state's special event legislation, police have the power to conduct random spot checks of cars, people and belongings in response to information about specific threats. Police also have the power to prevent people from taking items that may cause injury into a venue. The powers have previously been used during the 2003 Rugby World Cup in Brisbane.
Continued on Page 49
Wadera Mir Ibad Khan Bugti and 20 of his men announced that they wanted to leave Akbar Bugti's militia and renounce violence.
of Nawab Akbar Bugti surrendered to authorities in Sui on Sunday, Geo television reported. Wadera Mir Ibad Khan Bugti and 20 of his men announced that they wanted to leave Akbar Bugti's militia and renounce violence. They handed 20 Kalashnikovs, four rocket launchers, 10 multi-barrel rockets and 50 landmines to local authorities. Ibad Bugti had been involved in various attacks on security forces and gas installations in Balochistan, the channel said.
Posted by: Fred ||
10/09/2006 00:00 ||
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The Indian army said on Sunday it foiled two bids by militants to sneak from Pakistan into India held Kashmir in gunfights that left eight guerrillas and three soldiers dead.
At least three militants and one soldier were killed in a firefight sparked by a group of guerrillas trying to infiltrate Indian territory on Saturday night near the Saujian sector, said Lt Col RK Chhiber. The bid by the militants in Saujian, about 150 kilometers (95 miles) southwest of Srinagar, came hours after the army reported a similar encounter in another part of the divided Himalayan region. The other gunbattle in Gurez sector occurred after an army patrol spotted a group of militants near the cease-fire line that splits held and Azad Kashmir. When the soldiers challenged the militants, they opened fire, setting off a gunfight that lasted several hours, said army spokesman Lt Col AK Mathur.
Three militants were reported killed on Saturday, but as security forces combed the area through the night they found the bodies of two more militants and two soldiers, Mathur said on Sunday. Security forces were still searching the area, about 120 kilometres (75 miles) north of Srinagar, the summer capital of held Kashmir.
Posted by: Fred ||
10/09/2006 00:00 ||
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PESHAWAR: The political administration of Orakzai Agency on Sunday formed an official jirga to resolve the dispute between the Shias and Sunnis and restore peace in the agency. "The political administration has formed a jirga comprising former senators," Political Agent Dr Sher Alam Mehsood said. The jirga included former senator Sajjad Khan from Kurram Agency, former MNAs Munir Orakzai and Javed of Orakzai Agency and retired PHC judge Syed Ibne Ali.
The official death toll has reached over 30 while unofficial sources claim that more than 50 people have been killed.
The jirga also includes Zamin Ali and Umer Ali, leaders of a local Shia organisation, Ahle Tashai.
Shia militants set five Sunni homes on fire and took control of a seminary near the disputed shrine of Mir Anwar Shah on Saturday night, officials said. "Seven people were killed and 15 injured in clashes on Saturday night," Mehroban Khan said. The official death toll has reached over 30 while unofficial sources claim that more than 50 people have been killed. Officials said a ceasefire was not possible unless the Shias give control of the shrine to the administration.
Posted by: Fred ||
10/09/2006 00:00 ||
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CAMP TAJI, Iraq A mortar section from 7th Squadron, 10th Cavalry Regiment, 1st Brigade Combat Team, 4th Infantry Division, returned mortar fire after a terrorist mortar attack in Saab al Bour, north of Baghdad, at approximately 10:30 a.m. Wednesday.
In less than a minute, the Soldiers from Troop Bs 120mm mortars returned counter fire at an enemy mortar position outside the city.
Apache attack helicopters from 1st Battalion, 4th Aviation Regiment, Combat Aviation Brigade, 4th Inf. Div., also responded to the attack. An AH-64D attack helicopter air crew spotted the enemy position and crew fired on it, destroying the 120mm mortar position, an anti-aircraft gun and a vehicle.
A combined patrol from 2nd Tank Brigade, 9th Iraqi Army Division and a Multi-National Division Baghdad Military Transition Team, moved to the enemy location and secured the area.
The patrol seized a 120mm mortar system, an 82mm mortar system, a 12.7mm anti-aircraft machine gun with rounds, a 7.62mm PKC machine gun, an AK-47 assault rifle, five 120mm mortar rounds, 15 82mm mortar rounds, two hand grenades and a global positioning system.
Posted by: Bobby ||
10/09/2006 06:15 ||
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#1
Love the pix. Custers last mortar. Looks like it was made out of spare parts. I recognize the hydraulic jack frame.
#3
Its actually a French WWI 58mm trench mortar. Quite effective for what it was, it didn't have to shoot very far, be very accurate or be moved far or often.
#4
Job well done by the 7th Squadron, 10th Cavalry Regiment, 1st Brigade Combat Team, 4th Infantry Division! Hopefully, DNA tests will show that any scraps of meat, flesh, and bone fragments that were recovered belonged to the terrorist mortar crew and not some hapless goats that happened upon the scene.
Hundreds of Iraqi policemen fell sick from poisoning Sunday at a base in southern Iraq after the evening meal breaking their daily Ramadan fast, and officials said they were investigating whether the poisoning was intentional. An official with the Environment Ministry said 11 policemen had died. However, the governor of Wasit province where the poisoning took place denied any deaths, though he said some of the victims were in critical condition. There was no immediate explanation for the contradictory reports.
Some of the policemen began bleeding from the ears and nose after the meal, said Jassim al-Atwan, an inspector for the Environment Ministry, who was serving as a liaison in the investigation between the Health Ministry and the base, located in the town of Numaniyah.
"Hundreds of soldiers were poisoned after taking food and water in the iftar," Wasit Gov. Hamad al-Latif told the Associated Press, referring to the meal that breaks the sunrise-to-sunset fast during the Islamic holy month. "Investigations are under way to determine the cause." Samples of the food and water were being tested "to determine the substance in them" and will be sent to Baghdad for further tests, al-Latif said.
Sunni insurgents who have targeted police and military forces with bombings and shootings have not been known to use poisoning as a weapon. But the suddenness and severity of the sickness raised speculation that the incident could be a new attack. The division is mainly made up of Shiites. Between 600-700 policemen were affected to varying degrees, and 11 who had the heaviest amount of the food had died, al-Atwan told The Associated Press. Some of the soldiers collapsed as soon as they stood up from them meal, others fell "one after the other" as they headed out to the yard in the base to line up in formation, al-Atwan said.
Iraqi ambulances and helicopters sent by the U.S. military rushed the policemen to hospitals in Numaniyah and the nearby city of Kut. The afflicted policemen belonged to the 4th Division of the National Police, nicknamed the "Karrar" Division, after a title of Imam Ali, the most revered Shiite saint. The division normally operates around the town of Salman Pak on the southeastern outskirts of Baghdad an area of intense Shiite-Sunni killings. The division was sent to the base in Numaniyah, 60 miles southeast of the capital, for further training. Al-Latif said food and water at the base are provided by an Australian contractor working through Iraqi subcontractors. He did not identify the Australian firm.
#4
Some of the policemen began bleeding from the ears and nose after the meal
I had the jalapeno chili special at a truck stop outside Eagle Pass one time, and that's exactly what happened. Plus some stuff I don't even want to talk about.
A statement posted Sunday on an internet Web site known as a clearing-house for al-Qaida material denied recent speculation that the leader of al-Qaida in Iraq is dead. Reports that Abu Ayyub al-Masri had been killed surfaced after a raid Tuesday that killed four militants in the western Iraqi town of Haditha. Al-Masri is believed to have taken over al-Qaida in Iraq after Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was killed June 7 in a US airstrike. On Thursday, the US military announced it was conducting DNA tests on a slain militant to determine if he is the leader of al-Qaida in Iraq. However, US and Iraqi officials said it did not appear that the militant was al-Masri, which is a pseudonym for Abu Hamza al-Muhajer.
Posted by: Fred ||
10/09/2006 00:00 ||
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(KUNA) -- Up to 20 Iraqis were wounded on Sunday, including four policemen, in a double explosion that took place simultaneously in central Baghdad, an Iraqi police source said. The source told reporters that the first explosion took place in Victory Square, followed by a second in the same area.
In Kirkuk, Lieutenant Colonel Khalil Al-Zoba'i of the Iraqi Army said 184 suspects had been arrested in search operations in the city, as well as a woman and five men of Syrian and Palestinian nationalities.
Moreover, the source said the body of Interior Ministry Colonel Thamer Salman was found shot dead in an Iraqi patrol vehicle in Al-Fadhil district in Baghdad. He also said that an explosion near the Mustansiriya University wounded six people. Another source told reporters that the bodies of 15 Iraqis were found in different areas of the capital, all of whom had been shot dead.
Meanwhile, the US Army said in a statement that a soldier had been killed in northern Iraq yesterday when an explosive device blew up. And in Kirkuk, Lieutenant Colonel Khalil Al-Zoba'i of the Iraqi Army said 184 suspects had been arrested in search operations in the city, as well as a woman and five men of Syrian and Palestinian nationalities.
Posted by: Fred ||
10/09/2006 00:00 ||
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October 9, 2006: Aid groups in Gaza are complaining that terrorist organizations (sixteen by their count) are using force to grab a share of whatever foreign aid is available. Since neither Fatah nor Hamas have been able to impose order to the area, and the economy is depressed because Hamas has not been able to work out a deal with foreign aid organizations (who oppose the Hamas policy of destroying Israel), there are increasing shortages of just about everything. Except young guys with guns and attitude.
Gun sex galore!
The UN peacekeeping force in south Lebanon is at about half assed strength, and its members are complaining about all the restrictions on them. No overnight Passes
UN peacekeepers are basically there to provide back up for the Lebanese army. But the Lebanese army says it will do nothing to control Hizbollah, so it's easy to see why the UN peacekeepers feel useless. If the Lebanese get tired of doing nothing the United Nothing will fill in for them, doing nothing.
#1
the economy is depressed because Hamas has not been able to work out a deal with foreign aid organizations
I don't think that an agreement on how to hand out the welfare checks will suddenly result in a vibrant Gazan economy. So perhaps the sluggishness is due to something else, eh?
The IDF fired at three Egyptian residents near Mt. Uzia in the South on Sunday evening as the three tried to smuggle a large quantity of hashish over the border into Israel. Israel Radio reported that the suspects were lightly to moderately wounded in the lower body and were taken to the Josephthal Hospital in Eilat for treatment.
Posted by: Fred ||
10/09/2006 00:00 ||
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#1
What, is reality not fucked up enough in that part of the world, they have to take drugs too?
(KUNA) -- An explosion has rocked an internet cafe in the Palestinian refugee camp of Jabalia, north of here, but there was no report on casualties, security sources said Sunday.
The ten-kilogram bomb destroyed the cafe that was center for corruption and immoral deeds that disgrace Islam...
The explosion, which resulted in damaging the cafe surroundings, occurred early in the morning. Police rushed into the explosion site and embarked investigations. A new Islamic group claimed responsibility for the attack. "The ten-kilogram bomb destroyed the cafe that was center for corruption and immoral deeds that disgrace Islam" the group said in a statement.
Guess there'll be no more surfing porn sites from there, huh?
Posted by: Fred ||
10/09/2006 00:00 ||
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#3
PT-
Not exactly the last, knew a charming (and drop-dead gorgeous) physician by that name, and she's younger than I am. Everybody called her Tally, tho.
Mike
Posted by: Mike Kozlowski ||
10/09/2006 10:59 Comments ||
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#4
Pops was one of the models for Al Capps Senator JS Phogbound.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
October 9, 2006: Afghan police say they have recently arrested 17 suicide bombers, rounding them up in three different provinces. Only one of them was Afghan. In the last two years, most of the suicide bombers have been Pakistani or Chechen. Interrogation revealed that the 17 recently rounded up had been trained at two camps in Pakistan. One camp was outside Peshawar, the capital of the Northwest Frontier Province (where most of the pro-Taliban tribes live), the other was nearby in the semiautonomous North Waziristan tribal region (where most al Qaeda activity has been detected of late). Pakistani officials complained that these arrests should not have been publicized, and could we please sit down and talk about all this. 
October 9, 2006: NATO has compiled some numbers on the military operations NATO troops have been involved in during the last few months in southern Afghanistan. The NATO force of some 20,000 lost 19 dead, while the Taliban lost at least a thousand, out of a force of 3-5,000. The Taliban have been terrorizing Kandahar, Uruzgan and Helmand provinces, in the south, for the last four months, causing some 80,000 people to flee their homes, at least temporarily. 
(KUNA) -- The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) said insurgency has increased sharply in Afghanistan this year with 195 people killed by 78 suicide attack during that period, said NATO spokesman Major Luke Knitting while speaking at a news briefing here on Sunday. The spokesman said, in the past few months, violence has increased sharply across the country. Analysts believe the Taliban are using the tactics being used by terrorists in Iraq.
(SomaliNet) The strong regrouping and rearming in Juba regions, south of Somalia by supporters of former ruler of Kismayo city of Juba Valley Alliance and Islamists compelled more people flee from their homes fearing of major conflict between rival sides that will erupt in Bu'ale city, the capital of Middle Juba region where both sides prepare for ground battle 
(SomaliNet) In a catastrophic incident, the Sudanese rebels opposed to a recent peace deal in Sudan's Darfur clashed with the Sudanese government troops near Sudan's border with Chad, officials on both sides said on Sunday-Reuters. 
(SomaliNet) The Islamic Courts in middle Juba region, south of Somalia have detained on Sunday former chairman of Jilib town of that province Abdulahi Moalim Hussein and his deputy Ibrahim Jis after they were alleged of acts against the Islamists. Both men were belonged to former collapsed Juba Valley alliance who handed over the control of the town to Islamic Courts last month peacefully. 
A BRITISH terrorist suspect evaded capture from the country's police and intelligence services by donning a burqa and disguising himself as a Muslim woman, The Times reported in an early edition of tomorrow's newspaper. According to the London newspaper, which did not cite its sources, the suspect is a male who cannot be named because it could prejudice his trial. He was wanted for serious terrorist offences, and evaded arrest for several days. During those days, details of the man's identity were circulated to ports and airports in an effort to prevent him from leaving Britain. He was eventually caught and is now among the more than 90 terror suspects being held, awaiting trial.
BEIJING (Reuters) - China said on Monday it firmly opposed North Korea's nuclear test, denouncing it as "brazen" in unusually strong language, and demanded Pyongyang stop any action that could worsen the situation.
US intelligence has detected an explosion of less than one kilotonne in magnitude in North Korea but has not been able to determine whether it was nuclear or not, a senior intelligence official said.
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) -- North Korea said Monday it has performed its first-ever nuclear weapons test. The country's official Korean Central News Agency said the test was performed and there was no radioactive leakage from the site.
THE Queensland Government may tighten security at the Gabba for next month's First Ashes Test in Brisbane. It follows concerns over British media reports that last year's London suicide bombers had discussed the possibility of an attack on the Australian and England teams during their Ashes series. 
A close aide and key commander 
The Indian army said on Sunday it foiled two bids by militants to sneak from Pakistan into India held Kashmir in gunfights that left eight guerrillas and three soldiers dead. 
Hundreds of Iraqi policemen fell sick from poisoning Sunday at a base in southern Iraq after the evening meal breaking their daily Ramadan fast, and officials said they were investigating whether the poisoning was intentional. An official with the Environment Ministry said 11 policemen had died. However, the governor of Wasit province where the poisoning took place denied any deaths, though he said some of the victims were in critical condition. There was no immediate explanation for the contradictory reports.
A statement posted Sunday on an internet Web site known as a clearing-house for al-Qaida material denied recent speculation that the leader of 
(KUNA) -- Up to 20 Iraqis were wounded on Sunday, including four policemen, in a double explosion that took place simultaneously in central Baghdad, an Iraqi police source said. The source told reporters that the first explosion took place in Victory Square, followed by a second in the same area. 
October 9, 2006: Aid groups in Gaza are complaining that terrorist organizations (sixteen by their count) are using force to grab a share of whatever foreign aid is available. Since neither Fatah nor Hamas have been able to impose order to the area, and the economy is depressed because Hamas has not been able to work out a deal with foreign aid organizations (who oppose the Hamas policy of destroying Israel), there are increasing shortages of just about everything. Except young guys with guns and attitude. 
(KUNA) -- An explosion has rocked an internet cafe in the Palestinian refugee camp of Jabalia, north of here, but there was no report on casualties, security sources said Sunday. 
