"Once I started paying attention, I couldn't find any acorns anywhere. Not from white oaks, red oaks or black oaks, and this was supposed to be their big year," said Greg Zell, a naturalist at Long Branch Nature Center in Arlington. "We're talking zero. Not a single acorn. It's really bizarre."
Zell began to do some research. He found Internet discussion groups, including one on Topix called "No acorns this year," reporting the same thing from as far away as the Midwest up through New England and Nova Scotia. "We live in Glenwood Landing, N.Y., and don't have any acorns this year. Really weird," wrote one. "None in Kansas either! Curiouser and curiouser."
#4
I asked my brother (a trained botanist) about this and he says oaks are notorious for taking a year or two off over the course of things. In fact, very few tree fruit/nut crops are bulletproof reliable from one year to the next.
Records from the 1600's and 1700's mention mass squirrel migrations when one area's mast crop failed. This is nothing new.
Posted by: no mo uro ||
12/01/2008 4:20 Comments ||
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#5
mass squirrel migration sighting: see Washington DC mid-late January
Posted by: Frank G ||
12/01/2008 6:56 Comments ||
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#6
There's a ton of them in my neighborhood in North San Antonio - in fact, more than I have ever noticed in previous years. There were so many from one tree, fallen into the street and mooshed by passing traffic that the house-holder was scooping up the debris with a large shovel.
#8
OMG!!! Not the dreaded "mass squirrel migration!" I'm sure sure this is The first IN gazillions of years and it's all caused by you dreaded SUV land rapers!! What about the CHILDREN!! AAUUGGGHHHH!!!!!
Oh, wait, the meds just kicked in. What were you saying?
#13
Is there any connection with missing honey bees not being able to pollinate trees?
Posted by: Grolush Darling of the Hatfields3195 ||
12/01/2008 12:23 Comments ||
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#14
Big mobs of oak trees in our part of the Bronx (Riverdale) and not a single acorn have I seen. I will go down and check Riverdale Park this afternoon it's an old oak forest, and have a look.
#15
"Of course you forget, Peter. I was present at an undersea, unexplained mass sponge squirrel migration."
Posted by: Mitch H. ||
12/01/2008 13:01 Comments ||
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#16
If oaks take a year off in ten, and it's weather
related, then one could expect 10% of the country
to have a dearth of acorns at a given moment.
Add the Internet, shake, and there you are.
#17
It's been a very dry year here and I have loads of acorns, hickory nuts, walnuts, and chestnuts.
Posted by: Deacon Blues ||
12/01/2008 14:31 Comments ||
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#18
Is there any connection with missing honey bees not being able to pollinate trees?
Probably not, Grolush Darling of the Hatfields3195. While the domesticated European honeybee colonies are carried to various fruit orchards and such, whose owners are willing to pay for the service provided by professional bee keepers, unfarmed trees in North America are generally pollinated by native bee species. The native species are solitary or semi-solitary, and have been untouched by the various pests that periodically decimate the domesticated honey bees.
#21
Squirrels in my yard (along with rabbits) are extremely fat after eating every pear on the pear tree, every grape on the vines, every mulberry on the mulberry trees, all the black walnuts, many of the maple helicopters, lots of rose hips and the little berries on the burning bushes and gawd knows what else.
I know hawks have been eying them. But, I am hoping for a silver coyote or maybe a mangy fox to clean up some cold winter night.....
Last year we had a snap frost on Sept 8, way too early; and we exceeded the previous year's entire snowfall by the end of December. This year we had no sunspots in August, which led to cool nights and precious few tomatoes here in Wisconsin.
We also had the rain that killed Lake Delton and the Kickapoo River Valley. One good thing about the rain; the water fed the tree roots well into November, which gave us one of the most beautiful autumns we've had in years.
Question: how does the sunspot cycle fit into the Global Warming religion?
#24
Mom, the believers don't figure sunspots into their models. The skeptics suggest this chain: fewer sunspots and decreased solar flux go hand in hand. Decreased solar flux means fewer cosmic rays are deflected by the magnetosphere. More cosmic rays entering the atmosphere leads to increased cloud formation on water droplets nucleated by the cosmic rays. Increased cloud formation increases the earth's albedo, resulting in more reflection of solar energy and an overall cooling effect.
Follow Watts Up With That for further info. Currently, there are no sunspots, and the cycle is six to twelve months late.
In a significant setback to Robert Mugabe's regime, uniformed soldiers have for the first time rioted in the centre of Zimbabwe's capital, Harare, after trying to withdraw cash from a bank that had run out of money.
Emerging details of the riots will embolden Zimbabweans ahead of protests planned for Wednesday by the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions against a government policy that stops people from drawing more than 500,000 Zimbabwe dollars (18p) from banks per day. The rioting marks the first time the low morale of the rank-and-file has exploded into public violence.
Witnesses said about 70 soldiers, believed to be from Harare's main KG6 barracks, turned violent after spending Thursday queuing at the main branch of the Zimbabwe Allied Banking Group. 'They stayed in the banking hall at closing time,' a staff member said. 'At about 4.30pm we told them there would be no money, and they ran amok. They insulted the staff, then went outside and smashed the windows.'
The group moved on to Roodepoort bus station, a few blocks away, where they assaulted black-market currency dealers and robbed them. A soldier, who declined to be identified, told a local reporter: 'We have no food in the barracks. There is no medication in military hospitals, and we cannot access our money in the banks. Even if people are to riot, there would be no enthusiasm to stop them.'
Zimbabwe's soldiers and police are paid in local currency. A police officer, who declined to be named, said: 'The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe has a facility for us to collect money, but senior officers are looting all of it and asking us to go to get ours from the banks.'
Defence analyst Michael Quintana said the violence might signal the beginning of the end for the Mugabe regime. 'The army is down in strength from nearly 40,000 to about 26,000. There have been thousands of desertions. Barracks have stopped feeding all but senior officers, and soldiers depend on corruption and theft for incomes. If the time has come when they are ready to revolt, then the game will soon be up for Mugabe.'
Zimbabwe's official inflation annual rate is estimated at 231 million per cent, but independent economists cite the inflation rate in the billions of per cent. The 18p maximum account withdrawal buys a quarter of a loaf of bread and thousands of people spend their days in bank queues.
Posted by: Steve White ||
12/01/2008 00:00 ||
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#1
Let's hope Bad Bob has a Ceaucescu moment in his future--his very near future.
Well, it *is* a EUrocrat getting chatty with French teevee, salt to taste.
The UK is "closer" to joining the Euro than ever before, according to European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso. He said some British politicians were considering signing up to the currency in a bid to beat the effects of the global economic crisis.
He told French radio station RTL: "We are now closer than ever before. I'm not going to break the confidentiality of certain conversations, but some British politicians have already told me, 'If we had the euro, we would have been better off'."
But he admitted the majority of people in the UK were still opposed to the idea of joining the single currency. "I don't mean this will happen tomorrow, I know that the majority (of British people) are still opposed, but there is a period of consideration underway and the people which matter in Britain are currently thinking about it."
A Downing Street spokesman said: "We have no comment on this. Our position on the euro is the same - it has not changed."
This is probably for internal consumption. The euro has BIG problems of it's own, and saying people want top join sounds like it's better than it really is.
#3
"...and the people which matter in Britain are currently thinking about it."
Yeah, I'll bet that big shot EU job would be so much more enjoyable if it weren't for having to deal with all those friggin peons who just don't seem to get it, right, Jose? They should just leave everything to you and those of your ilk to run everything for them, right, buddy?
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez on Sunday announced he was seeking a constitutional amendment to allow himself to seek reelection, saying he hoped to remain in power until 2021. Chavez said he was direting his ruling United Socialist party (PSUV) to seel a "constitutional amendment and reelection of the president of the republic" saying he was "ready (to govern) through 2021."
"I give the PSUV and the Venezuelan people my authorization to begin the debate and take the steps necessary to obtain that constitutional amendment and reelection of the president ... and I am sure that we will get it now," Chavez said at the swearing-in of Caracas' Libertador district's mayor Jorge Rodriguez.
"I am ready, and if I am healthy God willing I will be with you until 2019, until 2021," Chavez added.
Posted by: Fred ||
12/01/2008 00:00 ||
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#4
No it means the amendment must come from a source other that the Preisdent. The Ve constitutiion can only be "reformed" on a single topic once per presidential term. Hugo already tried once, so legally he can't introduce the reform.... thus the verbage.
Canadian Coast Guard says the MV Camilla Desgagnes transported cargo to the hamlets of Cambridge Bay, Kugluktuk, Gjoa Haven and Taloyoak from Montreal in September.
CBC News is reporting that a commercial ship has travelled for the first time through the Northwest Passage this fall to deliver supplies to communities in western Nunavut. The broadcaster says the Canadian Coast Guard says the MV Camilla Desgagnes, owned by Desgagnes Transarctik Inc., transported cargo to the hamlets of Cambridge Bay, Kugluktuk, Gjoa Haven and Taloyoak from Montreal in September.
Brian LeBlanc of the coast guard told CBC he believes it's the first commercial cargo delivery from the east through the Northwest Passage, which normally is impassable due to thick ice.
Louie Kamookak, the director of hamlet housing and public works in Gjoa Haven, said deliveries usually come from the west. He said the vessel brought municipal equipment, including a sewage truck, as well as provisions for the local co-op stores.
Waguih Rayes, the general manager of Desgagnes Transarctik's Arctic division, said it used the MV Camilla Desgagnes because it is a super ice-class vessel. Mr. Rayes went along on the trip and didn't see "one cube of ice."
Stephen Hockman QC is proposing a body similar to the International Court of Justice in The Hague to be the supreme legal authority on issues regarding the environment. As long as it works as well as the International Court there shouldn't be much of a problem.
The first role of the new body would be to enforce international agreements on cutting greenhouse gas emissions set to be agreed next year. And just how does one do that? International Climate Police?
But the court would also fine countries or companies that fail to protect endangered species or degrade the natural environment and enforce the "right to a healthy environment". WOW! A new Right. Living around volcanos and along fault lines isn't healthy. What ya gonna do about that?
The innovative idea is being presented to an audience of politicians, scientists and public figures for the first time at a symposium at the British Library. Proposed by Lawyers, Huh. I smell huge Lawyer fees.
Mr Hockman, a deputy High Court judge, said that the threat of climate change means it is more important than ever for the law to protect the environment. Jeebus Cripes these people are loons. Climate Change will happen no matter what we do. We live on a dynamic planet.
The UN Climate Change Conference in Poznan, Poland this month is set to begin negotiations that will lead to a new agreement to replace the Kyoto Protocol in Copenhagen next year. Developed countries are expected to commit to cutting emissions drastically, while developing countries agree to halt deforestation.
Gordon Brown, the Prime Minister, has agreed the concept of an international court will be taken into account when considering how to make these international agreements on climate change binding. The court is also backed by a number of MPs, climate change experts and public figures including the actress Judi Dench. WHO?
'M' in the latest Bond films ...
Mr Hockman said an international court will be needed to enforce and regulate any agreement. If you have 10 or 15 minutes to waste go read the rest.
Posted by: Deacon Blues ||
12/01/2008 09:14 ||
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#2
"Senator John Kerry has indicated that even though he does not think it will be feasible for the U.S. to adopt a domestic policy package in a year's time, he does believe it's possible for the United States to contribute to an international agreement in Copenhagen," Boer said.
So it sounds like even Jaaaawn thinks it's bullshit. But I suppose ya gotta put on a show. And it makes him look like a "statesman"...
UN climate talks to create 13,000 tonnes of carbon
Staging a global forum on climate change is a dilemma, as it adds to the very problem it is trying to solve.
Around 13,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) will be added to the Earth's greenhouse effect from the December 1-12 meeting of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the UNFCCC said.
That estimate is based on a turnout of 8,000 people, but as of Sunday 10,657 people had registered for the talks.
#6
Don't blame me DFMD. I've got my heater blasting away.
Posted by: ed ||
12/01/2008 20:08 Comments ||
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#7
FOXNEWS AM reported that the new Govt-acknowledged, offcial US RECESSION could last to MID-YEAR 2009, basically SUMMER 2009.
As for GW, WORLD MIL FORUM [Google Chinglish translation]> IIUC, it seems CHINA'S METEOROLOGICAL ADMIN is warning that EARTH STANDS AT ESCALATORY, HIGHER RISK PER ANNUM FOR SUFFERANCE OF SPACE WEATHER DISASTERS DUE TO SIMIL ESCALATING SOLAR RADIATION OUTPUT LEVELS/ACTIVITIES.
MORE SOLAR ENERGIA PER ANNUM OR TIME PERIOD = MORE EFFECTS OF EARTH WEATHER.
* See also FREEREPUBLIC/TOPIX > SCIENTISTS: WORLD IS STILL HEATING UP.
I've noticed that "firebrand" holy men are usually noted for causing a lot more damage than they clear up. Being a "firebrand" puts Father Brockman in the same category as Qazi, Tater, and Abu Qatada.
The Marist order is pretty much noted for producing such "firebrands," and they're deeply involved in the liberation theology flavor of Marxism. His statement that "justice, mercy and compassion" blithely ignores the fact that the United States was for most of the 20th century the most generous country in the world, both in the fires, floods, and other natural disasters and in the aid provided to defeated enemies who by long tradition should have been paying us reparations.
There is usually a difference between ostentatious compassion and the real thing. I suppose you can actually be compassionate and be ostentatious about it, but as a rule those most ostentatious in their compassion write small checks.
Case in point: Allah sends a tsunami to devastate Indonesia, a Muslim nation. Saudi Arabia, two steps from Islamic theocracy, ostentatiously collects zakat, which is defined as alms, presumably for the poor. They don't show up when earthquakes or tsunamis devastate Guatamala or Czechoslovakia or Los Angeles, so we assume the zakat is reserved for Muslims. Yet us infidels outspent all of Arabia when Indonesia got smote, even while the UN was a.) complaining we weren't doing enough and b.) trying to present themselves as Johnny-on-the-spot.
The Rev. Miguel d'Escoto Brockmann, a revolutionary Nicaraguan priest, sounded like the old-school, 1980s-style Latin American leftist he is when he began his presidency of the 192-member U.N. General Assembly in September.
But as the world's financial turmoil deepens and the pillars of modern capitalism appear increasingly shaky, his tirades against what he considers the evils of an American-led economic order are gaining a more sympathetic audience here with each passing day.
A crushing global economic crisis has provided the Maryknoll priest with a pulpit to preach his sermon of class warfare between the world's rich and poor to an increasingly receptive audience, with more moderate figures such as Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner and French leader Nicolas Sarkozy echoing his criticism of the U.S. free-market system. "Some of this stuff he was saying in September sounded wacky, but now it's sort of in the mainstream" said Colin Keating, a former New Zealand diplomat who runs the Security Council Report, a policy group focusing on the United Nations. "It does partly account for slightly changed levels of respect."
A Sandinista foreign minister from 1979 to 1990 who once referred to President Ronald Reagan as the "butcher of my people," d'Escoto has emerged as an unlikely standard-bearer of the U.N. membership that had in many ways been moving beyond the Cold War battles that long defined him.
Equipped with a hearing aid and suffering from vertigo, the 75-year-old sermonizes about the cruelty of a political order that has done too little to improve the lives of the poorest. His self-effacing and sometimes humorous style has more in common with a small-town pastor than that of the stern Marxist ideologue -- Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega -- who championed his candidacy to the U.N. post.
D'Escoto decries the contamination of the world's economic order by a "spirit of selfishness and individualism" that views "justice, mercy and compassion" as incompatible with economic activity, as he said at a recent U.N. interfaith conference. "The world has become a moral basket case," he said at a news conference last week.
Posted by: Fred ||
12/01/2008 00:00 ||
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#1
Look for Rev. Wright to be named US Ambassador to the United Nations...
#2
Pope John Paull II would have had this guy tossed out on his head. "Liberation Theology" and its class warfare marxist center was roudly condemned by him.
"Equipped with a hearing aid and suffering from vertigo, "
Hmm, arrange for a walk along a high place with no hand rails...
#6
Let him peddle his moldy wares in Cuba. Nicaragua is falling apart under the Sandinistas. It's just they are better at voter fraud than Hugo Chavez, though not as good as the US Dem party. A 100% import tariff would speed the process along nicely.
Posted by: ed ||
12/01/2008 9:25 Comments ||
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#7
Nicaragua?
Oh yeah, that's where ol' Danny Ortega's boyos are rioting because he lost.
Life in Iraq is better for many but it is by no means perfect. Wonder if Bambi wants to speak to the Iraqis about the dishonor murders ...
Authorities in the southern Iraqi city of Basra have admitted they are powerless to prevent 'honour killings' in the city following a 70 per cent increase in religious murders during the past year. There has been no improvement in conviction rates for these killings. So far this year, 81 women in the city have been murdered for allegedly bringing shame on their families. Only five people have been convicted.
During 2007 the Basra security committee recorded 47 'honour killings' and three convictions. One lawyer in the city described how police were actively protecting perpetrators and said that a woman in Basra could now be murdered by hired hitmen for as little as $100 (£65).
'The life of these women isn't higher than $100. You can find a killer standing in any coffee shop of Basra, discussing prices of a life as if he was buying a piece of meat.'
The figures come despite international outrage which followed The Observer's coverage of the death of 17-year-old Rand Abdel-Qader, who was murdered by her father last April in an 'honour killing' after falling in love with a British soldier in Basra. Rand Abdel-Qader was killed after her family discovered that she had formed a friendship with a 22-year-old infantryman whom she knew as Paul. She was suffocated by her father then hacked at with a knife. Abdel-Qader Ali was subsequently arrested and released without charge.
Rand's mother, Leila Hussein, who divorced her husband after the killing, went into hiding but was tracked down weeks later and assassinated by an unknown gunman. Her husband had told The Observer that police had congratulated him for killing his daughter.
Seven months after the murders, the problem of these killings in Basra has become worse, according to lawyers. Ali Azize Raja'a, an Iraqi prosecutor who has represented the victims of 32 'honour killings' since 2004, said that, despite accumulating sufficient evidence to prove who was responsible in each murder, he had won only one case.
He said that the greatest issue was the decision by police to release suspects. Seven in 10 of those thought to be responsible for such a killing have left the city, with little attempt made to track them down.
The father of Rand is also understood to have left Basra. He was held by police in connection with his daughter's murder for only two hours. A local businessman who described the actions of Rand's father as 'courageous' is believed to have given a considerable sum of money to him and his two sons, who disowned their mother after she objected to Rand's killing. Raja'a said that when he was approached by Leila over Rand's case, his family was threatened by relatives.
Another Iraqi lawyer, who requested anonymity, said that some fathers had started to hire professional hitmen to carry out 'honour killings' which were then covered as 'sectarian murders'. He said: 'The life of these women isn't higher than $100. You can find a killer standing in any coffee shop of Basra, discussing prices of a life as if he was buying a piece of meat.'
Mariam Ayub Sattar, an activist in Basra, said that any woman caught speaking to a man in public who was not her husband or a relative was considered a prostitute and punished. A fortnight ago three women were burned with acid while walking through a market in Basra after stopping to speak to a male friend, Sattar said.
Nine of the 12 voluntary organisations helping women in Basra have closed down since the US-led invasion. The Women's Rights Association in Basra was forced to close down after death threats were made following the murder of Rand's mother last May. Two women from a voluntary organisation who had been helping her to hide from her husband were also injured.
Alia'a Obeidi, the organisation's president, said that one of her colleagues was killed while driving to work and, fearing for her family's safety, she later moved to the Kurdish region in northern Iraq.
The Iraqi Ministry of Human Rights said that it was working on new projects to end gender discrimination in the country. 'We try to make a difference by teaching students at schools about gender equality, but it only will be possible when parents don't teach the opposite at home,' said Hameed Walled, senior official in the Ministry of Human Rights.
Posted by: Steve White ||
12/01/2008 00:00 ||
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'We try to make a difference by teaching students at schools about gender equality, but it only will be possible when parents don't teach the opposite at home,' said Hameed Walled, senior official in the Ministry of Human Rights.
Actually, they will stop when the government fires police chiefs and prosecutors for being unable to obtain convictions in honor killings, and the penalty for a conviction becomes death by live burial.
American researchers have for the first time discovered the underlying gene responsible for the aging mechanism in diverse organisms. According to a study published in Cell, sirtuin is the gene contributing to the aging process in single cell organisms such as yeast as well as the multicellular organisms including mammals.
Previous studies had reported that a group of genes known as sirtuins are involved in the aging process of yeast, adding that certain chemicals can positively influence gene expression, and therefore prevent aging.
The study showed that any damage in DNA (due to UV or other free radicals) interferes with the cell's regulatory system, resulting in sirtuins' help in the DNA repair mechanism rather than regulating genes, leading to aging. Findings revealed that the administration of extra copies of the sirtuin gene or its activator can increase the lifespan in mice by 24 to 46 percent.
Mice with low sirtuin levels are reported to be more susceptible to DNA damage and cancer.
Scientists are optimistic that they will be able to figure out the mechanism and help prevent aging in humans.
Posted by: Fred ||
12/01/2008 00:00 ||
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great, now we'll have 140 yr old guys yelling at kids to "get off my lawn"
Posted by: Frank G ||
12/01/2008 7:12 Comments ||
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#2
The solution to the Social Security problem. If you don't age, you can't pull a retirement. [Not that the tax would go away - oh, heavens no].
#3
Look for this to debut for the very rich in the coming years. I have no doubt that it would not be available for the unwashed masses. What would Social Security retirement age ratchet up to?!
Thousands of supporters of Thailand's beleaguered government rallied in the capital on Sunday afternoon, bringing a new and combustible element to a political stalemate that is edging closer to open violence. The demonstration came on the same day that 50 anti-government protesters were injured when a grenade was fired into one of their protest sites in central Bangkok.
Four people were seriously injured in the early-morning explosion. It took place in the prime minister's compound, which has been occupied for months by anti-government forces.
The pro-government protesters, calling themselves the United Front of Democracy against Dictatorship, rallied in Bangkok and vowed to remain until anti-government demonstrators vacate the country's main airports, which they seized last week.
Analysts fear that if the red-shirted government supporters and the yellow-shirted, anti-government People's Alliance for Democracy should clash, there could be widespread violence.
"The red-shirts have been fairly restrained," said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University. "The danger is that they have a lot of pent up anger and if they start to let it out, there will be no boundaries to what they could do."
For the past six months, the PAD's predominantly urban, middle-class protesters have paralyzed Thai politics as part of their campaign to force the resignation of the government led by Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat.
They believe that Somchai is a stand-in for Thaksin Shinawatra, his brother-in-law and predecessor as prime minister, who was removed from office in a military coup in 2006 amid accusations of corruption and abuse of power.
Somchai, whose party won a convincing victory in elections last year, has refused to step down. But he has been forced to run his government from the northern city of Chiang Mai to avoid disruption from the protests.
Posted by: Fred ||
12/01/2008 00:00 ||
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The U.S. credit card industry may pull back well over $2 trillion of lines over the next 18 months due to risk aversion and regulatory changes, leading to sharp declines in consumer spending, prominent banking analyst Meredith Whitney said.
The credit card is the second key source of consumer liquidity, the first being jobs, the Oppenheimer & Co analyst noted. "In other words, we expect available consumer liquidity in the form or credit-card lines to decline by 45 percent."
Bank of America Corp, Citigroup Inc and JPMorgan Chase & Co represent over half of the estimated U.S. card outstandings as of September 30, and each company has discussed reducing card exposure or slowing growth, Whitney said.
A consolidated U.S. lending market that is pulling back on credit is also posing a risk to the overall consumer liquidity, Whitney said.
Mortgages and credit cards are now dominated by five players who are all pulling back liquidity, making reductions in consumer liquidity seem unavoidable, she said. "...We are now beginning to see evidence of broad-based declines in overall consumer liquidity."
"In a country that offers hundreds of cereal and soda pop choices, the banking industry has become one that offers very few choices," Whitney wrote in a note dated November 30.
She also said credit lines to consumers through home equity and credit cards had been cut back from the second-quarter levels. "Pulling credit when job losses are increasing by over 50 percent year-over-year in most key states is a dangerous and unprecedented combination, in our view," the analyst said.
#1
This is terribly serious. The CC companies cut lines because no one will underwrite their cardholders debt. Unfortunately, millions of Americans have become absolutely dependent on credit for their monthly rent and expenses.
In turn, this will cause an explosion in personal check overdrafts, that will result in either banks severely limiting checking and/or retailers refusing personal checks.
This leaves debit cards and cash for retail transactions, and since cash only amounts to 5% of daily retail, the vast majority of transactions will have to be done by debit card. At the same time, there will be a tremendous cash deflation, so cash will be king.
As happened at the onset of the Great Depression. As the saying went, "You could buy a pound of hamburger for a nickel. But nobody had a nickel."
It would be a very wise idea right now to have cash and coin at home, in a safe place.
Posted by: Mike N. ||
12/01/2008 16:43 Comments ||
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All I know about the CC companies is that the one I have keeps getting its limit boosted by the CC company, and my interest is still at 4.9% APR. Of course, I actually payoff my CC balance.
#4
and each company has discussed reducing card exposure or slowing growth
Slowing growth is completely different than reducing exposure and makes sense. A slowing economy would have less use for consumer credit.
"Pulling credit when job losses are increasing by over 50 percent year-over-year in most key states is a dangerous and unprecedented combination, in our view," the analyst said.
Is he saying that the credit card companies should be increasing credit to those without the ability to pay back the debt?
Posted by: Mike N. ||
12/01/2008 17:15 Comments ||
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In turn, this will cause an explosion in personal check overdrafts, that will result in either banks severely limiting checking and/or retailers refusing personal checks.
Many retailers have already begun refusing to take checks. Increasing overdrafts, would likely lead to banks requiring a merchant to install one of the systems to run checks electronically at point of purchase as a prerequisite to covering an overdraft, which many retailers won't do and will result in even fewer retailers taking checks. Than in turn will increase debit transactions. Any retailer that accepts checks or credit cards also accepts debit cards.
And that brings me to this;
At the same time, there will be a tremendous cash deflation, so cash will be king
This statement is not the truismit is presented to be. People switching from swiping a credit card to swiping a debit card has no deflationary effect on the dollar.
Posted by: Mike N. ||
12/01/2008 17:26 Comments ||
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"This is terribly serious."
Of course, which is a good thing. What is nor serious is spending without having money to back it up. You get money you pay.
#10
A year ago I posted a comment here that I was very concerned about people paying for groceries with a credit card and was phoo-pooed with some saying how did I know they weren't debit cards. Credit cards require a signature. Debit cards require a pin number and the ammount of signatures I have witness was great. If people have over-extended themselves to the point they have to rely on credit cards they are in very deep doodoo. They are trying to live beyond their means. Credit has been too easy to get for a very long time. This will probably hurt us all.
Posted by: Deacon Blues ||
12/01/2008 18:42 Comments ||
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#14
I routinely charge my groceries - and everything else - to my credit card. And get 2% 'back', at no cost to me, as I pay it off every month. They could cut my line of credit by 75% though, and I'd never notice it. Exceptions to every rule I guess. (That said, it does irritate me to be checking out with hamburger behind somebody charging their ribeye to the food stamp card.)
#15
Golf-
US credit card debt graph is most interesting. To a first approximation the debt has been flat since 2000. But it cuts off before the current SHTF episode - I wonder what the credit card debt is now.
#16
Glenmore, my point is you don't depend on your credit card to by things, it's just convienient. There are apparently a lot of people who wouldn't be able to feed their families without their credit cards. These people are the ones who pay the minimum ammount and will never climb out of the credit hole they've dug. These are the ones who will be cut off.
Posted by: Deacon Blues ||
12/01/2008 19:03 Comments ||
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#18
GolfBravoUSMC, thanks for the nifty charts. What I find worrying is the median debt held by the oldest age bracket on the chart. If anything, they should have the lowest debt levels, since their major expenses - mortgage payments, college tuition for the kids - should be paid off.
#19
Glenmore:
There seems to be a peak after 9/11 then flat. but look at the rise starting at the end.
I would guess some folks were tapping there equity piggy bank because their CC was maxed out. Remember the push for equity loans had a carrot to reset your high credit card interest rates. A lot of people did this after 2000.
#20
Deacon Blues: Things are somewhat worse, because the CC companies use statistical analysis to cut people off, not just individual data. That is, individuals are lumped into classes, and even if their personal credit history is good, if their class is dumped, so are they.
While even this might seem at least somewhat reasonable, there is a terrible problem with inaccuracy in credit records. This means that lots of people would be classed in the wrong class, and lose their credit cards because of it.
#21
GolfBravo, where does that chart by age come from? The numbers don't seem to jibe with the roughly $2,000 per eligible person CC debt shown in the other charts (which seems low).
The National Bureau of Economic Research said Monday that the U.S. has been in a recession since December 2007, making official what most Americans have already believed about the state of the economy. The NBER is a private group of leading economists charged with dating the start and end of economic downturns. It typically takes a long time after the start of a recession to declare its start because of the need to look at final readings of various economic measures.
"The committee views the payroll employment measure, which is based on a large survey of employers, as the most reliable comprehensive estimate of employment," said the group's statement. "This series reached a peak in December 2007 and has declined every month since then."
Employers have trimmed payrolls by 1.2 million jobs in the first 10 months of this year. On Friday, economists are predicting the government will report a loss of another 325,000 jobs for November.
The NBER also looks at real personal income, industrial production as well as wholesale and retail sales. All those measures reached a peak between November 2007 and June 2008, the NBER said. In addition, the NBER also considers the gross domestic product, which is the reading most typically associated with a recession in the general public.
Many people erroneously believe that a recession is defined by two consecutive quarters of economic activity declining. That has yet to take place during this recession.
The current recession is one of the longest downturns since the Great Depression of the 1930's. The last two recessions (1990-1991 and 2001) lasted eight months each, and only two of the 10 previous post-Depression downturns lasted as long as a full year, according to the NBER.
In a statement, White House Deputy Press Secretary Tony Fratto said that even though the recession is now official, it is more important to focus on the steps being taken to fix the economy. "The most important things we can do for the economy right now are to return the financial and credit markets to normal, and to continue to make progress in housing, and that's where we'll continue to focus," he said. "Addressing these areas will do the most right now to return the economy to growth and job creation."
Only if you change the definition of "recession" from economic contraction to slower growth. People are so spoiled that flat to slow growth is now considered "recession".
And it turned out that there was no 1990-19991 recession and there certainly wasn't one in 2001. So the tech bubble is now a "recession"?
And I take issue with this statement:
"Many people erroneously believe that a recession is defined by two consecutive quarters of economic activity declining. That has yet to take place during this recession."
Two consecutive quarters of economic decline IS the definition of recession. Look at it this way. Can you say the tide is going out without the water level actually dropping? And how do you tell that the level is dropping? Two consecutive measurements with the level lower than the previous measure would be your indication.
You can not have a "recession" without the economy actually receding. If the economy doesn't recede, then it isn't a recession. They are attempting to finagle a way to call it a recession while the economy still shows growth.
So it becomes two consecutive quarters of failing to meet expectations becomes a recession.
Homer is an idiot. Homer usually doesn't have an agenda. These individuals are working to change the 'dialogue' to fit their meme. Intent is what generally separates idiots from malefactors.
#5
Tipper, that page on Wikipedia just regurgitates the NPER crap. I suppose the "truth" is whatever validates what people wish to be true.
So the next question would then be ... what is the absolute definition of "significant". What they have done is muddied the water by going from an absolute definition (two consecutive quarters of contraction) to a subjective definition.
#7
FOXNEWS AM > CAVUTO Show Guests > MALE PERT [Govt]claims 'tis the WORSE RECESSION SINCE 1973-1974 [read, Vietnam + Nixonism + Quagmire]; VERSUS FEMME PERT [WSJ] whom claims US IS AT WORSE HEADING TOWARDS AN ECON "KATRINA/NAW ORRLEENS" TEMPORARY DOWNTURN [read, LEVEE/DIKE-/NUMBERS-GATE, Govt Planning], NOT ANY PER SE DEPRESSION OR STAGFLATION???
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries yesterday delayed a decision on whether to cut the cartel's oil output, but demand that is falling in the United States and unexpectedly weak in China makes it likely that the group will lower production at its Dec. 17 meeting in Algeria, analysts and OPEC ministers said.
Saudi King Abdullah said in an interview published yesterday in a Kuwaiti newspaper that $75 a barrel would be a "fair price" for crude oil, well above Friday's closing price of $54.43 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange but far below price levels OPEC was dealing in just four months ago.
Whether OPEC can arrest the slide in oil prices is a key question for everyone from U.S. motorists, now paying a nationwide average of less than $2 a gallon for regular gasoline for the first time since March 2005, to giant oil companies, many of which are shelving high-cost oil exploration and development projects.
In Canada, where oil tar sands projects would be worthwhile only if prices were higher than they are today, plans for expanded production have been postponed. Saudi Arabia has postponed plans to develop the Manifa oil field, which could produce 900,000 barrels a day of heavy crude oil.
Posted by: Fred ||
12/01/2008 00:00 ||
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A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
In a significant setback to Robert Mugabe's regime, uniformed soldiers have for the first time rioted in the centre of Zimbabwe's capital, Harare, after trying to withdraw cash from a bank that had run out of money.
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez on Sunday announced he was seeking a constitutional amendment to allow himself to seek reelection, saying he hoped to remain in power until 2021. Chavez said he was direting his ruling United Socialist party (PSUV) to seel a "constitutional amendment and reelection of the president of the republic" saying he was "ready (to govern) through 2021." 
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries yesterday delayed a decision on whether to cut the cartel's oil output, but demand that is falling in the United States and unexpectedly weak in China makes it likely that the group will lower production at its Dec. 17 meeting in Algeria, analysts and OPEC ministers said. 
