The Afghan populace are like the ultimate battered spouse (and there are many in that neck of the woods). Her screwed-up personality and warped morals mean she won't respect a guy who treats her well. Eventually he'll give up trying to save her from her self-abusive nature and drug habit. He'll move out, and the nastiest PoS around (in this case a neighbour's son) will move straight in, thus restoring the natural order.
Depends on how much money and support Pakistan and Saudi give the Taliban.
Depends on how much money Uncle Sam gives the Afghan government. Najibullah's government collapsed because Yeltsin stopped supplying him with oil. While Taliban attacks will continue to be a problem for a decades, I can't see how the Afghan government collapses without the kind of global embargo that was imposed on Najibullah. Any established government has significant advantages vis-a-vis a guerrilla movement. Unless the Pakis sends a large conventional force a la the NVA in 1975, I don't see the Afghan government falling over, any more than the Iraqi government has.
If we cut off aid, Karzai will either be in exile or dead 30 seconds after we're gone. The Afghan government will probably muddle along. Short of a Pakistani invasion, I can't see the Taliban winning. The reason the Taliban won in the first place was a combination of an all against all civil war among the mujahideen and Pakistani sponsorship of the Taliban. Unless the Afghan government breaks up into warlord fiefdoms that spend most of their time fighting each other, the Taliban will lose.
I vote for dead. The backstabbing caped drugged crusader should be made to endure the future he's helped create. I'd have rooted for Dostum - no Talib/Pashtun friend
Posted by: Frank G ||
Ultimately our presence in Afghanistan is preventing the Afghan government from resorting to the draconian measures of the kind the Sri Lankan government implemented against the rebel Tamilians. While an invasion was necessary to topple the Taliban and mop up al Qaeda and several-year occupation was necessary to stabilize the Afghan government, our continued presence is preventing the population adjustments that need to occur to ensure a lasting peace.
Please, Robert. The government of Sri Lanka was not Tamil, as the Kabul "Regime" is Pashtun
Posted by: Frank G ||
The government of Sri Lanka was not Tamil, as the Kabul "Regime" is Pashtun
The Kabul government is composed of non-Pashtuns overlaid with Pashtun figureheads (at American insistence). That is why when US aid is cut off, Karzai and the Pashtun mafia will go into exile or be disappeared.
[Dawn] It's been three decades since Zulfikar Ali Bhutto ...9th PM of Pakistain from 1973 to 1977, and 4th President of Pakistain from 1971 to 1973. He was the founder of the Pakistain Peoples Party (PPP). His eldest daughter, Benazir Bhutto, would also serve as hereditary PM. In a coup led by General Zia-ul-Haq, Bhutto was removed from office and was executed in 1979 for authorizing the murder of a political opponent... created the hype around his persona and politics, and lasting it has certainly proven to be.
Today, his children and their off-springs might have moved away from each other, but efforts are in full swing to retain and cash in on the Bhutto name in the upcoming elections.
In conversations with Dawn, Pakistain People's Party (PPP) stalwarts confided that even though Bilawal Bhutto Zardari would turn 25 in September next year -- the minimum age to contest elections in the country -- his father President Asif Ali Ten Percent Zardari ... husband of the late Benazir Bhutto, who has been singularly lacking in curiosity about who done her in ... is intent on launching his son's formal political career by May when general elections would be held.
A sitting PPP member of the National Assembly from Sindh claimed that just like it is unimaginable for the Congress in India to go into elections without a Gandhi leading its campaign, it is unthinkable for PPP leaders to disassociate themselves from the Bhuttos.
"Whether somebody likes it or not, Bilawal, Asifa and Bakhtawar are the face of the party. The PPP is synonymous with the Bhuttos, and after the untimely death of their mother, they have to don this mantle for the party's cause," he tried to rationalise the dynastic politics at play.
"It's an association that not even President Zardari can challenge. A Bhutto addressing an election rally always creates an extra amount of energy among voters, which the party cannot afford to lose with elections round the corner," he pointed out.
He added: "Since Bakhtawar, 22, doesn't take much interest in politics, and Asifa, 19, is too young to address public rallies, the PPP is left with no choice but to field Bilawal in active politics. The sisters will be making appearances in the run-up to the general elections."
Indeed, a dedicated group of party leaders is actively involved in grooming Bilawal, and brief him on party affairs regularly.
Their job is made easier by the fact that over the last year or so, Bilawal himself has started taking interest in politics.
Insiders told this scribe that the speech that Bilawal delivered on Tuesday to a group of students invited to the Presidency under the programme titled "Pakistain: Leaders of Tomorrow" had more thought put into it than realised by people.
"Do you really think it was just an off-the-cuff speech," remarked the PPP source, "It was a 4,000 plus words speech that highlighted every single issue of the country both on the domestic and international level. This series of public interactions to selected students from universities all over the country is the launch of his political life."Indeed, Bilawal talked about the country's on-going fight against militancy, PPP's so-called achievements over the last four years and his willingness to work with Nawaz Sharif ... served two non-consecutive terms as prime minister, heads the Pakistain Moslem League (Nawaz). Noted for his spectacular corruption, the 1998 Pak nuclear test, border war with India, and for being tossed by General Musharraf... , Imran Khan ... aka Taliban Khan, who who convinced himself that playing cricket qualified him to lead a nuclear-armed nation with severe personality problems... , Jamaat-e-Islami ...The Islamic Society, founded in 1941 in Lahore by Maulana Sayyid Abul Ala Maududi, aka The Great Apostosizer. The Jamaat opposed the independence of Bangladesh but has operated an independent branch there since 1975. It maintains close ties with international Mohammedan groups such as the Moslem Brotherhood. the Taliban, and al-Qaeda. The Jamaat's objectives are the establishment of a pure Islamic state, governed by Sharia law. It is distinguished by its xenophobia, and its opposition to Westernization, capitalism, socialism, secularism, and liberalist social mores... , and any other political force willing to participate in the election.
And quite expectedly, he brought in his late mother Benazir Bhutto ... 11th Prime Minister of Pakistain in two non-consecutive terms from 1988 until 1990 and 1993 until 1996. She was the daughter of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, founder of the Pakistain People's Party, who was murdered at the instigation of General Ayub Khan. She was murdered in her turn by person or persons unknown while campaigning in late 2007. Suspects include, to note just a few, Baitullah Mehsud, General Pervez Musharraf, the ISI, al-Qaeda in Pakistain, and her husband, Asif Ali Zardari, who shows remarkably little curiosity about who done her in... 's resolve and vision for the betterment of the country, and repeatedly drew parallels between his mother's struggle for a liberal and educated Pakistain with Malala Yousafzai, a young girl shot by the Taliban for advocating girls education.
Another parliamentarian told Dawn said that familial links have deep roots in Pak politics and will stay for a long time to come which will not give new people a chance to come in and prove their mettle.
"Can the Pakistain Moslem League-Nawaz contest elections without the Sharif brothers as the party's premier candidates, or can someone else besides Asfandyar Wali Khan lead the Awami National Party?" the PPP leader went on, "I can't predict the future, how these political parties will play out 10 to 20 years down the road in the country, but for the moment, it is all about families and their iron fist on their respective parties."
"These families do not want to share anything with people sitting around them," he concluded.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.