...in which the writers at the National Review get caught on a "statistical sleight of hand."
[Bloomberg] Benjamin Disraeli is reputed to have said “There are three type of lies: lies, damn lies and statistics.”
Today let's address the third component of Disraeli's formulation in the context of a recent National Review article with the headline, “The Myth of the Stagnating Middle Class.” The article observes that “more Americans have easier lives today than in years past.”
To regular readers, this is a variant of the assertion that “common folk live better today than royalty did in earlier times,” a claim we debunked two years ago. The current argument is more nuanced in that it: a) relies on a few statistical twists; b) contains statements that are true but don’t support the main claim; and c) is an argument against Donald Trump’s populism from the political right. It all has the general appearance of plausibility until you start digging.
This is where we come in.
Let’s begin with the claim that more Americans have easier lives today than in years past. This is true and almost always has been. Progress is humanity’s default setting ever since our ancestors climbed down from the trees and began walking upright on the African savanna.
Thus, it should come as no surprise that the standard of living for all Americans has been rising for many years, mainly because of technological advances. However, the main issue under discussion is actually about how the economic benefits of the U.S. economy get apportioned across the populace.
In other words, how the wealth is distributed. The National Review engages in a statistical sleight of hand that distracts from this.
For further insight I spoke with Salil Mehta, who teaches at Columbia and Georgetown, and is perhaps best known for his role as the top numbers-cruncher in the federal government’s $700 billion TARP bank bailout plan in the financial crisis.
Mehta made short work of the article: More at the link
#4
I'm lower middle class and have reacted to the squeeze by cancelling my subscription to National Review several years back. Not only saved money going in, didn't need to read their social climber BS, and saved on associated disposal costs.
Ya do what ya gotta do.
Posted by: ed in texas ||
02/16/2017 7:29 Comments ||
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#5
I made the unfortunate decision to get out the old inflation calculator from my MBA eco classes and applied it to my pay at various times in my life.
I found that corrected for inflation I am making less now than I did when I was a GM-13 in Frankfurt.
I also found out that my O-3 over 4 pay was pretty good in today's dollars.
I then found out that the $63,000 I was making in 1998 is worth almost 20% more than what I make right now...
So stagnation? It's real, decline in real income, you betcha.
The statistics are simple. Get an inflation chart from anyone of several colleges, multiply your annual income in any particular year by the coefficients in the chart to correct to current dollars.
You don't need a bunch of statistical folderol to see the middle class is in it up to their necks and struggling as the rich get richer and the welfare state feeds more and more from the higher and higher hidden taxes on the middle class.
For instance...oil is selling for less than half what it was in 2010. So is gasoline selling for less than half? Nope, the Feds and the States raised gasoline taxes to cover the lost revenue stream.
Buying grocery bags in California? Essentially a 10 cent a bag tax on groceries
Notice how property taxes fluctuate?
They have bled the middle class for years and really want to kill it off but then who pays the bills for all of these wonderful entitlement programs?
#6
I've just printed the 74 page Pew report, titled "The American Middle Class is Losing Ground." I could have pulled any number of other 'headlines' off individual charts, but after scanning all the charts, I concluded the report - released December 9, 2015 - was toxic to the POTUS at the time. The middle class decline started about the time The One took office. Yes, the rich got richer, but the poor got richer, too. Only the middle class suffered.
I'm going to work up half a dozen 'headlines' out of the one report as an example to the family.
Posted by: Bobby ||
02/16/2017 13:52 Comments ||
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[Australian Business Review - WSJ reprint] US intelligence officials have withheld sensitive intelligence from President Donald Trump because they are concerned it could be leaked or compromised, according to current and former officials familiar with the matter.
The officials’ decision to keep information from Mr. Trump underscores the deep mistrust that has developed between the intelligence community and the president over his team’s contacts with the Russian government, as well as the enmity he has shown toward US spy agencies.
On Wednesday, Mr Trump accused the agencies of leaking information to undermine him.
In some of these cases of withheld information, officials have decided not to show Mr Trump the sources and methods that the intelligence agencies use to collect information, the current and former officials said. Those sources and methods could include, for instance, the means that an agency uses to spy on a foreign government.
The process is far too lengthy. Dispatch a battalion of Infantry. Less the Director and his personal staff, order everyone in the grades of GG-14 and higher to leave their desks, go home, and begin the resignation or early retirement process. Update the access roster and order Chinese carry-out.
#3
Just as the MSM keeps 'news' from making its appearance which is counter the the narrative, other Donk operatives are playing the same game in government. Surprise.
#4
Just as the MSM keeps 'news' from making its appearance which is counter the the narrative, other Donk operatives are playing the same game in government. Surprise.
Yes, the 'impondo zenkomo' duel axis of attack, or buffalo horns strategy.
#6
Fire them?
The process is far too lengthy. Dispatch a battalion of Infantry. Less the Director and his personal staff, order everyone in the grades of GG-14 and higher to leave their desks, go home, and begin the resignation or early retirement process. Update the access roster and order Chinese carry-out. Day #2 should show significant improvement. Posted by Besoeker
#7
About the private security consultants Pr.Trump most assurdly used before he was elected -- how do their reports compare to what the alphabet organizations are feeding him?
[Breitbart] The Deep State has done its dirty work, getting rid of Michael Flynn, the now-former national security adviser to President Trump. And so the MSM, having taken direction--even dictation--from the Deep State, is moving in for the kill. The ultimate target, of course, is Trump himself.
The Washington Post, which has long hated Republicans, and Trump in particular, is leading the charge. On February 15, seven of the eight top stories on its online home page were anti-Flynn, anti-Trump--and, of course, pro-MSM.
[DAWN] THE lull has been broken and the country is bleeding again. Lahore, Mohmand Agency ... Named for the Mohmand clan of the Sarban Pahstuns, a truculent, quarrelsome lot. In Pakistain, the Mohmands infest their eponymous Agency, metastasizing as far as the plains of Peshawar, Charsadda, and Mardan. Mohmands are also scattered throughout Pakistan in urban areas including Karachi, Lahore, and Quetta. In Afghanistan they are mainly found in Nangarhar and Kunar... and Beautiful Downtown Peshawar ...capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (formerly known as the North-West Frontier Province), administrative and economic hub for the Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan. Peshawar is situated near the eastern end of the Khyber Pass, convenient to the Pak-Afghan border. Peshawar has evolved into one of Pakistan's most ethnically and linguistically diverse cities, which means lots of gunfire. have been attacked in rapid succession by the holy warriors. In between, Bloody Karachi ...formerly the capital of Pakistain, now merely its most important port and financial center. It is among the largest cities in the world, with a population of 18 million, most of whom hate each other and many of whom are armed and dangerous... and Quetta have suffered violence too; a diverse map of militancy and terrorism appears to once again be stretching the will and capabilities of the state. As the country mourns the latest casualties in the long war against militancy, policymakers need to urgently turn their attention to the reasons and causes for the latest spike. While panic must be avoided -- the attacks are extremely disturbing, but have not been catastrophic in scale -- the political and military leadership clearly have no reason to be complacent. The Lahore, Mohmand Agency and Peshawar attacks have all targeted security forces or public officials and none of them appear to be random or unplanned. It appears that the murderous Moslems are once again not only growing in confidence but that the support and facilitation networks on which attackers rely are being rehabilitated. In the past, growing confidence and execution capabilities have been a prelude to a sustained and painful series of attacks. The past must not be allowed to repeat itself.
If a new, sustained wave of terrorism is to be avoided and the resultant downturn in violence to become a permanent trend, the anti-militancy policy framework will need to be overhauled. Already, officials are publicly pointing figures at outside powers, especially Afghanistan, and appear to be trying to externalise blame. Certainly, the existence of TTP sanctuaries in Afghanistan is undisputed. But the policy challenges there need to be addressed incrementally, meaningfully and in a sustained manner. The sanctuary problem along the Pak-Afghan border is a stubborn one and will not yield to short-term convulsions and rancour on either side. Indeed, the quiet spells are when behind-the-scenes diplomacy and military dialogue are most important -- the high emotionalism in the aftermath of an attack can inform the need to have a long-term solution, but is likely to prevent results-oriented talks in the short-term. Afghanistan and Pakistain must keep dialogue open and be incrementally progressive at all times.
Domestically, the bombings have shed an unsavoury light on the patchy implementation of the National Action Plan. Developing the will to want to end all forms and manifestations of militancy is important, but the strategy and operational tactics to do so is an essential concomitant. The reaction of the Punjab 1.) Little Orphan Annie's bodyguard
2.) A province of Pakistain ruled by one of the Sharif brothers
3.) A province of India. It is majority (60 percent) Sikh and Hindoo (37 percent), which means it has relatively few Moslem riots.... government to the Lahore bombing is illustrative of the muddleheaded nature of the state’s response. Rapid-fire, after-the-event orders for crackdowns and heightened security measures appear to be announced more for public consumption than out of hope for real gains in the fight against militancy. To break the link between tribal sanctuaries and urban targets, and to break up the terrorist networks inside the country’s cities and towns, a calm, focused national leadership is needed.
Posted by: Fred ||
02/16/2017 00:00 ||
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[Jpost] The media, from the editors down, presume that they know much better than average Israelis what they should be hearing or reading.
’Fake news’ has been anointed by at least one dictionary as the "word of the year" and most assuredly it is one of the linguistic highlights for others who promote vocabulary inventiveness.
To our mind, fake news is the lesser problem. Most of it turns out be fake and the public knows. A much more difficult issue is when real news is made fake by journalists who have no respect for their own profession and its code of ethics.
A fact can easily be misrepresented.
...The media, from the editors down, presume that they know much better than average Israelis what they should be hearing or reading. One cannot find a single public poll which attempts to understand the media needs of Israelis. Even the public broadcasters do not give a hoot for the public’s interests as they know it all.
For example, shortly after the recent Amona evacuation, Judge Miriam Lipschitz-Previs of the Jerusalem District Court handed down a spectacular decision. Four years after the previous Migron expulsion, she declared that Arab ownership of the lands in question was unproven. She issued an order that the plaintiffs who had sought damages themselves would pay the residents of the former Migron location for the discomfort they had caused. She also prohibited the Arabs from attempting any future court challenges connected to land upon which the original Migron was built.
This decision merited headline treatment and studio debate. But hardly anyone knows about it. Our media, which is so good at exposing political misdeeds and at deifying "investigative reporters" such as Ilana Dayan, did not, as far as we know, devote an investigative report to the fate of the families evacuated from Migron. Where are they today? What are their conditions? Has anything been learned from the catastrophic Gaza and North Samaria expulsion of 2005? And what of the conditions of the current Amona evacuees? Even the Left should be interested in such facts, given that it promotes further expulsions of Jews from their homeland.
Another item has been the ongoing media treatment of police investigations into actions taken or not taken by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. One concern was Netanyahu’s rumored involvement in the process of contracting for the purchase of German submarines.
Some media outlets indicated that bribes were involved.
Last week, as if in a "still, small voice," it became apparent that Netanyahu was not a suspect. Almost daily, several times a day, Israelis, almost obsessive consumers of news, were primed by the media to think "Netanyahu" and "bribery" as if in a Pavlovian experiment. And then, within a day, we learn the matter never really existed. Headlines? An apology? Only additional "news" about the alleged misdeeds of the prime minister and his wife. Enemies general of the human kind - to be dealt with as wolves are.
[Jpost] The reality is a world becoming more religious and hateful every day ‐ and almost all of this hate is driven by Islamists.
Everyone is a "moderate" these days. The Economist used the word "moderate Muslim" in three articles in its January 28 edition. In Malaysia there was "moderate Muslim culture." Indonesia has "moderate Muslim leaders." Morocco has a "moderate Muslim" political party. The moderate-hardliner spectrum is one of the most facile media clichés.
Hamas’ new Gazan leader is a "hardliner," while Iran’s president, enforcing the most extreme discrimination against women, is a "moderate" and Saudi Arabia’s former king, who did not allow women to drive, was a "reformer."
For almost two decades since 9/11 the mainstream media in every Western country, and to some extent the rest of the world, has adopted Orwellian language to whitewash and mislead the public about the nature of Islamist regimes, political Islamism and the creeping bigotry, hatred and extreme right-wing, conservative, fundamentalist intolerance in parts of the world.
There needs to be a push-back against this agenda, or our world will slowly become dominated by the most hateful and intolerant views, passed off as normal and even liberal. The quiet alliance between Islamist right-wing extremists and parts of the Western Left will leave a wound on human societies that will be impossible to heal. We saw that wound in Iraq when Islamic State (ISIS) "insurgents" overran parts of the country, committing genocide, ethnic cleansing and systematic rape and enslavement of people as media described their acts and "militant" and an "insurgency." 5,000 ISIS members booked tickets from European airports to go to Iraq to commit genocide, and hundreds returned home without ever being held to account. Even today you will not encounter the terms ethnic cleansing or genocide in mainstream media coverage of ISIS, or hear it described as a right-wing death squad.
The unwillingness to question the nature of Islamist conservative hate-mongering and chauvinism was on display when Sweden’s trade minister made a pilgrimage to Tehran to beg approval from Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. The Swedish minister dressed her female delegation in long coats and head-scarves so as not to offend the extreme right-wing, theocratic hate-mongering Iranian regime. Facing criticism in the media for the veiling, she told the newspaper Aftonbladet that "she was not willing to break Iranian law," according to reports.
...What is wrong with our culture? Why is it we change our way of life when visiting the countries of others and then change it again in our own countries in order to always please others? Why is it that every time a hate-monger finds something "offensive," such as the sight of a woman’s hair, a woman’s legs, a handshake, a statue, that Western culture runs to cover it up? How about some dignity? We will get to a point in the failed and pathetic Western civilization where European diplomats will deny the Holocaust to please their Iranian handlers.
There is no point at which someone will say "no."
Saudis require segregated beaches for their vacations in France? No problem.
Why is Islamism the only right-wing extremist movement that always gets a pass? Hindu nationalists? Distasteful. Lord’s Resistance Army? Disgusting. Russia decriminalizing domestic violence? Aghast. Le Pen? Racist. Pat Robertson? Objectionable religious right-winger.
Consider that The Guardian ran an op-ed in 2015 condemning the UK government for hosting Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He had worked for a "gang of religious fascists...inciting religious hostility... as a boy joined the far-right." How come the same writers don’t use these terms for Saudi Arabian or Iranian leaders, whose policies are more right-wing, more hostile, more extreme? Why isn’t Modi a "moderate" or a "reformer" if the last Saudi king was? What is called "moderate" in every Islamic country is "far right" in every neighboring society. "Reform" translates to "intolerance" and "hardliner" is equivalent to preaching ideas akin to those of the Nazis. Our major media uses these terms to shield our societies from reality.
[GodfatherPolitics] Alcoholics Anonymous has its 12-step program to conquer the demon drink. The Black Panther Party has a 10-point program. There is a four step, five, and 10-step program for quitting smoking and a 10-step program for weight loss. Everywhere we look there is a "step" program to accomplish some goal.
Religions also have "step" programs. There are the nine steps to convert to Judaism and 13 steps to convert to Catholicism. Even radical Islam has a "step" program.
Yes, the Muslim Brotherhood, the originator of modern-day terrorism, from which all modern Islamic terror was born, has a five-step program, or strategic plan, to take over Western nations, including the United States, and subjugate all its citizens, for all to submit to Sharia law.
The plan is called "Civilization Jihad." This five-step (or phase) plan was crafted by Mohammed Akram, a senior Hamas leader in the United States and board member of the Muslim Brotherhood of North America, and approved by its Shura Council in 1987.
Their mission statement is as follows:
The process of settlement is a ’Civilization-Jihadist Process’ with all the word means. The Ikhwan must understand that their work in America is a kind of grand jihad in eliminating and destroying the Western civilization from within and sabotaging its miserable house by their hands and the hands of the believers so that it is eliminated and God’s religion is made victorious over all other religions.
Phase One calls for discretion, as members and operatives arrived in America (or any other Western nation). They are to keep a low profile -- go about their business as shop owners, students and professionals. They are to be seen as model citizens, gaining respect within their vocations and communities.
Years or even decades may pass between stages.
Phase Two requires Muslims to begin to come out of the shadows. This can only be achieved when there is sufficient population. They are then to begin gently pushing for recognition of Sharia law, but only within their own communities and sphere of influence, all the while publicly siding with the West against radical Islam. They insist that Islam is a religion of peace while co-opting western progressive leaders in this insistence. They assure these leaders that Sharia will never be applied outside their own communities.
Phase Three is one of penetration and escalation. This, in my opinion, is where we are presently. When there are enough Muslims in any given city, they begin to penetrate Western society beyond their own communities, i.e. Dearborn and Minneapolis.
They build mosques like crazy -- many more than are needed, funded by foreign entities. In 1994 there were 962 mosques in the United States. Today, a mere 20 years later, there are close to 2200.
They roll out more and more front groups and "organizations" to make it appear that they have more clout and influence than they actually do. Here is a list.
There is no better example than the Brotherhood front group CAIR, which has a staff of about 70 and little more than 300 volunteers, yet they are treated with more respect and frankly feared more than the NRA, with its 4.5 million members.
The job of these front groups is to pressure politicians and academia for Islamic studies and prayer areas, claiming victimization and demanding accommodations. They are to file lawsuits and cry Islamophobia at every turn, thus wearing down their Western hosts.
Then it’s on to Phase Four, where Muslims, now a rather significant minority population in the host country, become more belligerent and insistent that Sharia law be woven into the host’s legal and political system. Violence from supposedly independent and disparate radical groups may also be part of Phase Four.
Phase Five is the final step, as Muslims have now become the majority, or at least the "ruling" minority. All the veils have been pulled back and there is no more pretense of getting along, as they terminate any non-Islamic influence. Sharia law is then imposed nationwide.
Don’t think it could ever happen here? You must always remember that these are a patient people and this is a 100-year plan. We are less than 30 years in, and they are already at Phase Three.
Posted by: Vast Right Wing Conspiracy ||
02/16/2017 00:00 ||
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#1
yes this is exactly what they want this document was seized as evidence from a computer in the terror funding trial
#3
nobody is going to stop them because our Saudi-influenced governments and "intelligence" communities have maintained the fiction now since 9/11 that it is possible to fight an ideological battle with spies and cops.
all while keeping "multiculturalism" intact and deceiving the public with "nothing to do with islam"
NONE of that has anything to do with the struggle by women to simply be treated equally under the law.
None of it has to do with the leftards either. They are just an annoying symptom of ignorance.
This began at the top with the original sin, agreed to by George W, when he came out after 9/11 and said "Islam is a religion of peace. This is not a war on Islam, it's a war on terrorism"
every person who says "daesh" instead of "Islamic State" contributes to this problem.
[PJMedia] Those who thought things would cool off after the elections, should think again. The Trump administration has not yet won the battle for legitimacy. Maybe it never will. Thomas Lifson argues the "CIA broke the law to take out its critic General Flynn". Bill Kristol doesn't care about the legalities. He sees the resignation of Mike Flynn as a power struggle between two evil Washington factions, only one of who can win. "Obviously strongly prefer normal democratic and constitutional politics," Kristol Tweeted. "But if it comes to it, prefer the deep state to the Trump state."
No middle ground? Not even the constitution? Can things be so bad? The language of the pundits is full of warlike metaphors. Rush Limbaugh called what happened "the Political Assassination of Michael Flynn". Jennifer Rubin sees it as a softening up of the beaches on the Road to Tokyo. Flynn was only a whistle stop en route to the final destination. "If Flynn gone in less than a year how long will Trump last?," she asks.
The overall tone is so bellicose even long time Trump critics worry things have gone too far. John Podhoretz says "what happened with Flynn also represents a frightening portent" because "no joke, people -- if they can do it to Mike Flynn, they can do it to you." Suddenly no one is safe.
...But dangerous or not, the game is afoot. A fight is on between what Kristol referred called the "deep state" and "the Trump state". It marks an escalation between the incoming Trump crew and the coalition consisting of establishment Republicans, Democrats, media and intelligence bureaucrats. Also any other public "service" bureaucrat. The bad, bad, childishly irresponsible people rebel against the wisdom of their betters - intolerable! If Trump loses, it could be the end of western civilization
#1
So Flynn is out as a Cabinet member.
Doesn't mean his value as an adviser and confidant is compromised. I think his stock has gone up now that he is not subject to public and political oversight. Now he is outside, like Blackwater.
#5
Substitute "Fallujah" for "Washington" in the title of the article and you will then see the magnitude and scope of the task facing President Trump w/r/t the established rot.
Posted by: Alaska Paul ||
02/16/2017 10:09 Comments ||
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#6
Never forget the establishment in DC all opposed trump. This is a soft revolution from the heartland. The DC elites will continue to fight, their very existence and power is being challenged by the people. There will be more casualties from both sides. It is just getting started!
Posted by: 49 pan ||
02/16/2017 11:03 Comments ||
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#7
A shoe that hasn't yet dropped: the Russians almost certainly have recordings of all calls their ambassador was involved in, even if Flynn didn't bother.
Reading slumps can be sneaky. You can be rolling along and not even necessarily noticing that you’re reading less and less until, BAM–you’re in a slump. Don’t worry, though. I have compiled a list of warning signs to watch for.
1. Your Netflix queue is on the verge of being empty.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
Mohmand Agency
[GodfatherPolitics] Alcoholics Anonymous has its 12-step program to conquer the demon drink. The Black Panther Party has a 10-point program. There is a four step, five, and 10-step program for quitting smoking and a 10-step program for weight loss. Everywhere we look there is a "step" program to accomplish some goal.
Flynn, under the belly of the bus. 
