[38North] In recent weeks, the gathering storm has been described by countless observers on an almost daily basis. Anyone who reads a newspaper of whatever political stripe knows the dangers and the potential catastrophic losses in blood and treasure if current trends continue. Perhaps what has been lacking has been a closer look at the clockwork mechanisms driving the dangers to higher and higher levels.
One problem not well understood is that the North Koreans believe recent developments in their nuclear weapons program have boosted them to a level of invulnerability, and that as a result, Washington‐whatever it might say‐is without options to counter them.
In fact, Pyongyang is so convinced that its strategic position has fundamentally changed for the better that it has recently suggested there may be no need for it to continue building up its program. Since two successful ICBM launches last July, the North’s position is that it has reached the "final stage" in bolstering the nuclear force. It has even explicitly laid out a final goal, a "practical equilibrium" with the United States. What that means exactly we do not know, though presumably Pyongyang has something specific in mind.
Posted by: Abu Uluque ||
11/13/2017 9:36 Comments ||
Top||
#2
Two possibilities come to mind:
1) Paul (NorK people) no longer has anything for Peter (nuke program) to rob (and Kimmy can't reduce his personal budget.)
2) The Chinese, in response to US diplomatic entreaties or otherwise, have decided to pull the plug on supporting Kim if he continues on the nuke path, and this is a face-daving statement.
[Hurriyet Daily News] The commemoration of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk’s death on Nov. 10 has been very spectacular this year. Anything related to the founder of the republic had become the symbol of secularist "resistance" for some time, against the perceived Islamization under the conservative/Islamist governing party. But more than that, it proved that the power of the republican legacy cannot to be easily challenged even among the ordinary folks who have nothing to do with krazed killer Kemalism.
Kemalism, which was once enforced by the state as the official ideology, is being embellished by the civil society nowadays.. Lately, President Sultan Recep Tayyip Erdogan the First ... Turkey's version of Mohammed Morsi but they voted him back in so they deserve him... and his party started to endorse Ataturk and his historical legacy, with the president cherishing him by referring to him by his last name "Ataturk," a name adopted after the foundation of the Republic. Before, Erdogan and his party preferred to refer to him by his first name and title, "Gazi," meaning war veteran in Ottoman Turkish, and Mustafa Kemal, as a show of dissent. The main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) said this change was an election tactic rather than a sincere move, as Erdogan needs a 51-percent majority in the 2019 presidential elections. Nevertheless, it seems that the rising popularity of Ataturk reflects the unbeatable legacy of the republic’s history and its leader.
Islamists and even most of the moderate conservatives have long perceived the secularist, Western modernization of the republic as a Western plot. They offered a revisionist version that proclaimed Ataturk and his Republican friends sacrificed the gains of the War of Independence by compromising with the British and won the political struggle for power at the expense of denouncing the Moslem entity of The Sick Man of Europe Turkey ...the only place on the face of the earth that misses the Ottoman Empire.... and by abolishing the caliphate. In this view, the founding fathers of the republic deserved to be regarded as traitors rather than heroes.
Besides, since the 1980’s, Kemalism became a dirty word for liberal democrats who have been critical of the legacy left by the republican, authoritarian modernization project as the main obstacle stopping democratization in Turkey. Finally, the political vogue turned out to be a coalition of left liberal anti-Kemalism and Islamist/right-wing anti-Kemalism in search for Turkey’s democratization. Things have changed so much since then that now people from different walks of life came closer to appreciating republican values. More than anything else, it emerged that ordinary people do not very much embrace anti-republicanism as it was assumed the contrary by conservative/Islamist politicians and intellectuals.
All attempts to alter the narrative and symbols of the republic and replace them with alternatives have failed. For example, the portrayal of Sultan Abdulhamid II as a historical progenitor and nemesis of Ataturk by conservative/Islamist narratives have so far failed. The revisionist history in general could not achieve popularity despite all efforts. Most recently, although the majority embraced the narrative of popular resistance against the July 15, 2016 coup attempt, the effort of contest with the War of Independence proved futile. Finally, the project of the new Turkey could not engender a strong counter narrative and symbols to compete with the republican, Kemalist ones.
I think it was not only the result of the weakness of the counter narratives, but also the power of the Republican-Kemalist legacy that determined the course of the war of narratives and symbols. In the end, it seems that a majority in Turkey have been intimidated by the krazed killer form of anti-Kemalism/republicanism as much as the rigid understanding of secularist/modernist Kemalism created resentment in the past. But so far, there is hope for the future of secularism and liberal values.
Posted by: Fred ||
11/13/2017 00:00 ||
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[Daily Caller] Former CIA Director John Brennan said Sunday it’s "worrisome" that foreign leaders are able to manipulate President Donald Trump by playing on his ego and insecurities.
Brennan blasted Trump Sunday on CNN’s "State of the Union" for attempting to downplay the conclusions reached by the U.S. intelligence community, namely that Russia interfered in the 2016 presidential election for the purpose of backing Trump.
For Brennan, such flip-flops by Trump on whether Russia did or did not intervene are a function of foreign leaders playing Trump’s ego and insecurities.
"By not confronting the issue directly and not acknowledging to Putin that we know you are responsible for this, I think he’s giving Putin a pass," Brennan said, according to The Washington Examiner. "It demonstrates to Mr. Putin that Donald Trump can be played by foreign leaders who are going to appeal to his ego and to try to play upon his insecurities which is very very worrisome from a national security standpoint."
#3
Brennan is just jealous because his attempts to manipulate Trump's insecurities failed so miserably.
Posted by: M. Fillmore2601 ||
11/13/2017 9:19 Comments ||
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#4
In other news:
Former shadow president, regime change expert, and ardent political manipulator John Brennen severely butt hurt by the recent leadership and economic successes of President Donald Trumkp.
[DAWN] The protest near Islamabad by elements of the right wing, led by Tehrik-e-Labbaik Ya Rasool Allah Pakistain and the Sunni Tehrik ...formed in Karachi in 1992 under by Muhammad Saleem Qadri. It quickly fell to trading fisticuffs and assassinations with the MQM and the Sipah-e-Sahaba, with at least a half dozen of its major leaders rubbed out. Sunni Tehreek arose to become the primary opposition to the Deobandi Binori Mosque, headed by Nizamuddin Shamzai, who was eventually bumped off by person or persons unknown. ST's current leadership has heavily criticized the Deobandi Jihadi leaders, accusing them of being sponsored by Indian Intelligence agencies as well as involvement in terrorist activities... , has taken an ugly turn, with a potential for worse.
During their Friday sermon, holy mans from the religious groups holding the demonstration threatened to attack the families of federal ministers if the government did not accede to their demands.
It is several days since the protest began, sparked ostensibly by the controversy surrounding the amendment to the Elections Act, 2017, an amendment swiftly reversed by parliament.
Among other demands, the protesters want Law Minister Zahid Hamid to resign for what they believe is his culpability in the short-lived change to the election law; Asiya Bibi executed; cases against religious leaders dismissed; and holy mans removed from the Fourth Schedule.
The Punjab 1.) Little Orphan Annie's bodyguard
2.) A province of Pakistain ruled by one of the Sharif brothers
3.) A province of India. It is majority (60 percent) Sikh and Hindoo (37 percent), which means it has relatively few Moslem riots.... government is acting as an interlocutor between the protesters and the federal government. As always, those suffering the most from the sit-in at Faizabad interchange, the main artery linking Islamabad and Rawalpindi, are ordinary citizens trying to go about their daily lives.
There is never a time quite like the run-up to elections for groups with political aspirations to flex their muscles, and expand their space. September’s by-election in NA-120 saw the TLY-backed candidate win enough votes to come in third place behind the PML-N and PTI.
It was an electoral endorsement that has further emboldened an organization that derives its inspiration from the man who murdered Salmaan Taseer ‐ it is hardly surprising that violence, whether in the name of religion or otherwise, is its stock-in-trade.
For the holy mans to threaten the families of those against whom they are directing their ire is a form of blackmail that is particularly detestable and should be denounced in the strongest terms. The democratic right to protest is not a licence to engage in hate speech or incite violence.
Moreover, the protesters’ demands are such that no government could possibly acquiesce to them; their very unreasonableness shows them for what they are, a naked attempt to browbeat authorities.
Although the government has been right to show restraint thus far, there must be a more concerted and skillful effort to engage with the protesters so that the increasing tension can dissipate. Any violence will work to the advantage of the right wing, and they know it.
Those taking part in the sit-in are spoiling for a fight. The government must not give in to them.
Posted by: Fred ||
11/13/2017 00:00 ||
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#1
Or, let me break Pakistan into a hundred parts?
[Al Jazeera] A week after the surprise resignation of Saad Hariri Second son of Rafik Hariri, the Leb PM who was assassinated in 2005. He has was prime minister in his own right from 2009 through early 2011. He was born in Riyadh to an Iraqi mother and graduated from Georgetown University. He managed his father's business interests in Riyadh until his father's assassination. When his father died he inherited a fortune of some $4.1 billion, which won't do him much good if Hizbullah has him bumped off, too. broadcast on Saudi-owned al-Arabiyya from Riyadh, Leb has stopped asking where he is and has started demanding his release.
Lebanese President Michel Aoun ...president of Leb, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Hizbullah... called the circumstances of his disappearance "ambiguous and mysterious" and asked Soddy Arabia ...a kingdom taking up the bulk of the Arabian peninsula. Its primary economic activity involves exporting oil and soaking Islamic rubes on the annual hajj pilgrimage. The country supports a large number of princes in whatcha might call princely splendor. When the oil runs out the rest of the world is going to kick sand in the Soddy national face... for clarification. In meetings with foreign ambassadors, he has gone further and declared Hariri "kidnapped".
It has become clear that Hariri was planning for a short visit in Riyadh and was scheduled to return to Leb that weekend. He is set to appear for the first time tonight in an interview from Riyadh.
I spoke to Habib Ephrem, president of the Syriac League in Leb and secretary-general of the Levant Encounter, a think-tank known to be very close to President Aoun. He showed me an entry in his calendar from last week titled "11:30am Hariri" scheduled for Monday, November 6. He had received a call from the office of the prime minister on Saturday, November 4, hours before Hariri resigned in front of al-Arabiya's cameras. Clearly, not even his team in Beirut knew what was going on.
Hariri now seems stuck in Riyadh, like another head of government, Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, Yemen's president, who reportedly has not been allowed to leave the Saudi capital for months. And with all the posturing from Riyadh, the fear in Beirut is that the country might be facing a proxy war, just like the one in Yemen.
The Lebanese are not 'a herd of sheep'
According to the latest reports, Saudi Arabia took the decision on Hariri's resignation because "he was unwilling to confront Hezbollah". He was handed his resignation speech while waiting to see Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
There have been also rumours that Saudi Arabia is setting the stage for Saad's older brother, Bahaa, to replace him, and has demanded that members of the Hariri family go to Riyadh to pledge allegiance.
Posted by: Fred ||
11/13/2017 00:00 ||
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A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
One problem not well understood is that the North Koreans believe recent developments in their nuclear weapons program have boosted them to a level of invulnerability, and that as a result, Washington‐whatever it might say‐is without options to counter them.
Second son of Rafik Hariri, the Leb PM who was assassinated in 2005. He has was prime minister in his own right from 2009 through early 2011. He was born in Riyadh to an Iraqi mother and graduated from Georgetown University. He managed his father's business interests in Riyadh until his father's assassination. When his father died he inherited a fortune of some $4.1 billion, which won't do him much good if Hizbullah has him bumped off, too.
Michel Aoun
