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2005-02-05 Iraq-Jordan

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Posted by Fred 2005-02-05 00:00:00|| || Front Page|| [4 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 And the Sunni Arabs at Gulf News down in Dubai, UAE, hope to whip up Iraqi Arab, both Sunni & Shi'a, opposition by shouting it from the proverbial rooftop - as if it's inappropriate. Second day running for this Kurd-scare bit - maybe they want to make better friends with the Turks at the same time. If the Kurd slate garnered the second or third highest vote total, as appears to be the case, then this is nothing more than the customary reward, one of the top posts. That it seems to hack the Sunni Arabs is merely icing, IMHO.

Wait and see what the vote total are, boyz, then live with the obvious results. It's called democracy, Arabs. Take a good look - you'll be seeing more of it around soon.

Posted by .com 2005-02-05 1:38:49 AM|| 2005-02-05 1:38:49 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 Here's da beef:
Preliminary results from 15% counted Iraqi election votes place Sistaniâs United Iraq Alliance in 42% lead, followed by 34% for united Kurdish list and 20% for Allawi group. Of 8 million vote, 2 million cast by Kurds.

I am not surprised by the Kurdish share, but Allawi was estimated that he would take about 8%.
Well, it is still 85% of votes to be counted, so the number may change a bit, but I would like to see Allawi in the next government with a substantial portfolio, as his group with Kurds would make a nice counterballance to Shia dominance.

Posted by Sobiesky 2005-02-05 4:34:23 AM|| 2005-02-05 4:34:23 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 I am surprised by the Kurdish share. 34% of 8 mill votes is 2.7 mill. While all ethnic numbers from Saddam's Iraq are suspect. It indicates the Kurdish population is higher than commonly supposed. May also be substantial immigration from Turkey, Syria and Iran (which I strongly suspect).

The media always talks about shiias and Kurds as separate when in fact large numbers of Kurds are shiias (and all are either sunni or shiia). They are clearly Kurds first and Shiias/Sunnis second. It remains to be seen whether the Arab Shiias are Arabs first (and find common cause with the Sunni arabs). BTW Debka called this day after the election.

Posted by phil_b 2005-02-05 6:07:38 AM|| 2005-02-05 6:07:38 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 May also be substantial immigration from Turkey, Syria and Iran (which I strongly suspect).

Those would be Iraqi Kurds returning after the 1st phase of the war.

Posted by Sobiesky 2005-02-05 6:55:25 AM|| 2005-02-05 6:55:25 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 All indications are Iraqi Kurdistan is booming economically. If I was a young Kurd in Iran, Iraq, or Turkey I know where I would be heading. Its not hard to see why the Iraqi Kurds scare the sh#t out of the Turks.

Posted by phil_b 2005-02-05 7:14:32 AM|| 2005-02-05 7:14:32 AM|| Front Page Top

#6 It indicates the Kurdish population is higher than commonly supposed.

It may also indicate that they may have had higher turnout due to 1) a higher level of security making it less risky to vote, 2) having already introduced democracy they may better "get out the vote" programs, and 3) given their experience with voting, they may have advanced vote generating systems like those used in Seattle and Milwaukee.

Posted by Mrs. Davis 2005-02-05 7:19:45 AM|| 2005-02-05 7:19:45 AM|| Front Page Top

#7 There is a rumor that Allawi group plans to make a coalition with Kurdish group, which would form a majority government. Would be interesting to watch as this develops.

Posted by Sobiesky 2005-02-05 8:04:59 AM|| 2005-02-05 8:04:59 AM|| Front Page Top

#8 Mrs. D, they may also have hidden their numbers under Saddam and had difficulty getting people down from the mountains to register and then again to vote. IOW, the registration figures might have been misleadingly low.

A Kurdish / Allawi coalition would be interesting. It might put pressure on the Shia to remain moderate (if it didn't polarize them into a theocratic stance). The really subtle pressure would be on the Sunni Arabs -- they would HAVE to make an alliance with one or the other group.

My sympathy reservoirs seem to be all dried up and the warehouse is backordered.

Posted by too true 2005-02-05 8:12:27 AM|| 2005-02-05 8:12:27 AM|| Front Page Top

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