The defense establishment is concerned that Hezbollah will try to smuggle advanced anti-aircraft missiles into Lebanon in the near future - yet another reason for the rising tension on the Israel-Lebanon border. Israel has made it clear in past statements that it will consider such a development as crossing a red line, which might necessitate preventative measures.
It is believed that Hezbollah would like to deploy SA-8 batteries in Lebanon. Such weapons could pose a threat to Israel Air Force jets flying over the country. In recent years, the IAF has conducted regular flights over Lebanon, part of reconnaissance and intelligence missions linked to assessing Hezbollah's military capabilities. In threatening the IAF, the Shi'ite group is hoping to alter Lebanon's military balance of power vis-a-vis Israel.
In the past year, the Arab press has reported several times that Hezbollah would like to deploy anti-aircraft missiles on Lebanon's mountaintops, thereby checking the IAF's freedom of operations.
The Soviet-made missiles are part of Syria's military arsenal, and Hezbollah fighters have received training on their use, inside Syrian territory. To date Syria and Hezbollah have refrained from deploying such weapons in Lebanon. Syria remains the main channel through which arms are transferred to Hezbollah - a process that has been expedited since the end of the 2006 Second Lebanon War.
A year ago, tensions flared when Israel suspected that Hezbollah was planning to move the missiles into Lebanon and deploy them on the mountains. Israel relayed messages to both Syria and Hezbollah, through several channels, warning that it would consider launching air strikes against the convoys delivering the weapons, if they were brought into Lebanon. Then-prime minister Ehud Olmert and Defense Minister Ehud Barak hinted publicly that these weapons would "upset the [existing] balance" and that Israel would not tolerate such a development. It seemed that Hezbollah got the message.
However, in recent weeks concerns have resurfaced about the missiles being moved to Lebanon. Israel has once again issued a warning through various channels. The intelligence community believes that in the wake of the June 7 elections to the Lebanese parliament, Hezbollah will once again try to move and deploy the missiles. In so doing, the group would be attempting a show of force. Hezbollah has consistently been trying to increase its hold on Lebanon, which it believes will only become stronger after the elections.
The intelligence assessments regarding the missiles follow a long series of unusual developments in Lebanon that are contributing to rising tensions, including the discovery of an alleged Israeli spy ring; a leak on Hezbollah's alleged responsibility for the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri; and the unsettled score for the assassination of Hezbollah terrorist mastermind Imad Mughniyeh, allegedly killed by Israel more than a year ago.
Posted by Steve White 2009-05-26 00:00||
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File under: Hezbollah
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