Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.
#1 I pay no attention to the polls. Look at Gallup what happened when they came close to showing the truth. The old media is in the tank for the Democrats period. More people are now losing jobs, good jobs like coal and defense. I talked to a young woman that had to quit college and now must work full time to support her future husband and child. He just lost his computer related job with a defense company. He is now working on his masters she said. Just basics, wick program but too little to help. No extra money for anything.
Many anti Obama signs in my coal area also. I truthfully believe we will hear a loud flushing sound at election time. While still in office he will pull as many dirty tricks as he can, pardons and so on.
Posted by Dale 2012-09-21 07:06||
#2 I pray you are right Dale.
Posted by Besoeker 2012-09-21 07:11||
#3 I think the media will stay in the tank until after the debates. At that point they may try to regain credibility if it looks like Obama is the weak horse despite their attempts.
Posted by rjschwarz 2012-09-21 08:29||
#4 Reagan was behind Carter in late October in 1980. He won the election with 489 electoral votes. Carter got something like 44. Carter screwed up the Iran crisis and the economy was terrible, similar kind of phenomenon today with Obama. It's a little more complicated today as there are other factors that have entered this election.
Posted by JohnQC 2012-09-21 09:05||
#5 1. Public education.
2. Independents are emotional voters. They don;t know and don't care about policy. They want to be excited, and Romney isn't exciting.
3. The polls are bald lies. At the last instant they'll skew toward Romney to try and save some credibility, but they will never show anything but a horse race until then.
Posted by Iblis 2012-09-21 09:50||
#6 Give me a guy or a gal who in unexciting but competetent--someone who can actually do something. I don't want some dumb a** Hollywood celebrity as President.
Margaret Thatcher said: "Socialism ends when it runs out of other people's money."
Posted by JohnQC 2012-09-21 10:48||
#7 "who in is unexciting." Sorry, my proofing missed this.
Posted by JohnQC 2012-09-21 10:49||
You are not an independent voter would be my guess.
One additional feature of the 'I' voter is that they follow the crowd. If the party base gets excited that's enough for them. They'll get excited too. Worked for Reagan. Worked for Champ in '08. Not working this year, though you saw it briefly with the Ryan pick.
Also, if the Independents remain undecided at the end they overwhelmingly break for the challenger.
Posted by Iblis 2012-09-21 11:56||
#9 Reagan was exciting but he was also eminently competent and courageous enough to take a stand.
I'm afraid Romney needs to kick it up a notch or else he's going to lose the same way John McCain did. When he went in front of Univision he talked about the 100 percent. Bullshit. He had a moment of candor when he talked about the 47 percent but he let the media convince him it was a gaffe. It was only a gaffe because he let them say it was. All he had to do to justify it was ask people if they want to be dependent or independent. That's what it's all about.
Posted by Ebbang Uluque6305 2012-09-21 12:10||
The polls are bald lies. At the last instant they'll skew toward Romney to try and save some credibility, but they will never show anything but a horse race until then.
The polls show what they're paid to show -- which is exactly what you describe. The press wants to show a "horse race" -- with Obama generally in the lead -- because it brings in a bigger audience.
And, second, polls are just an example of bandwagon propaganda. "The majority are voting for Obama -- you don't want to be an outsider, do you?" It's BS.
The only honest polls are the ones the campaigns pay for -- because they pay for the accuracy and honesty. Those polls must show Romney with a comfortable lead, because most of the efforts the Democrats have made have been in getting their base excited, not in reaching out to the undecided.
Posted by Rob Crawford 2012-09-21 12:30||
#11 I have low expectations for the debates. I'm actually afraid Obama will mop the floor with Romney - he has no fire in his belly and seems uncomfortable coming on strong. I also want to know where Ryan has been - I haven't heard/seen much of him in over a week. He's got more of what it takes to win than Romney - put him up front!
Posted by Yosemite Sam 2012-09-21 12:51||
#12 It isn't that the pollsters are paid to show a horserace.
The pollsters are being paid (or lobbied) to suppress the Republican and independent vote.
The logic is simple: show that Obama (or Warren, or any other favored Democrat) is ahead, and there is a certain segment of the public who will stay home on election day. They'll say, "what's the use" and sit it out.
Sounds stupid, right? But it works.
So Axelrod and Plouffe are working hard daily on the pollsters.
Democratic client pollsters like PPP have an additional job: skew the poll averages. You've seen these averages at Real Clear Politics, etc -- they gather up a bunch of recent polls and average them for a 'consensus' number.
So if PPP, by whatever means, consistently shows Champ to be +6, and four other pollsters see it as Romney +1/0, guess what the average is. Yup, Champs keeps his lead.
The Democrats know this works: it was proven in Florida in 2000, when the Gore team had (bought) exit polls showing him in the lead and persuaded CBS to 'call' Florida early. The voters in the panhandle part of the state, in the Central time zone, still had time to go to the polls, but a number didn't. Later polling showed that the voters who stayed home rather than go vote in that last hour would have voted Bush 2:1 over Gore. Enough to tip (or solidify) the election.
A fair number of pollsters are as deep in the tank for Obama as the MSM. Remember that, and remember the Gore trick on election night: Axelrod has plans, I'm sure.
Posted by Steve White 2012-09-21 12:57||
#13 I never talk to pollsters. Never.
Posted by Ebbang Uluque6305 2012-09-21 13:55||
#14 #9 JohnQC: You are not an independent voter would be my guess.
I was talking to my neighbor this A.M., a Viet vet. He said we wasn't so much voting for Romney as he was voting against Obama. I agree with him. I think what Obama is doing to this country is an abomination. We both agreed Washington is FUBAR. I will vote for the most conservative candidate that has a chance of winning. In this case it is Romney/Ryan. Independents don't have a good history of winning in this country; they tend to be spoilers--in some cases that is good. There were good people that never emerged beyond the primaries that I liked but that's the nature of the process.
Posted by JohnQC 2012-09-21 16:56||
#15 Angiting, at least try to spew your shit on a thread that has some relationship to said shit.
But that's probably beyond your ability (and I use the term loosley).
Posted by Barbara 2012-09-21 19:58||