Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.
#1 "That's a big gap in the leadership," said Kohlmann, who is also a Justice Department consultant.
A "gap" soon filled Mr. Kohlman. A "gap" soon filled. You've just revealed how little you know about Muslim Jihadi leadership and their long-term campaign strategy.
Posted by Besoeker 2012-12-08 06:22||
#2 "what's that buzzing? I can't even hear my 'snap, crackle, pop'!"
Posted by Frank G 2012-12-08 08:06||
#3 How many Alq have be found in Pakistan?Too many imo for calling Pakistan a friend and ally.
Posted by Shinert de Medici2790 2012-12-08 09:13||
#4 It's arguable whether hitting leaders does anything more than disrupt immediate operations. At least that is the outcome of some research at West Point.
Posted by lotp 2012-12-08 09:34||
#5 Depends on how many leaders and how often, I should thin, lotp. If all you do is seasonally prune the deadwood at the top, you may actually improve things (see US Army.)
Posted by Glenmore 2012-12-08 09:54||
#6 My takeaway from lotp's link is that it's the Number 3s who should be targetted instead.
Posted by trailing wife 2012-12-08 09:59||
#7 They say here that he was having a late dinner after fasting during the day. Could it be the Angel of Death caught him sneaking a breakfast during his fast?
Only Allah knows best.
Posted by tipper 2012-12-08 10:05||
#8 Like pruning kudzu
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2012-12-08 10:21||
#9 Not much different than dealing with plague. You don't immediately kill the rats because the fleas will jump to other carriers only speeding up the transmission. First you reduce the flea population to a low level, then you kill the rats.
Posted by Procopius2k 2012-12-08 11:12||
#10 From lotp's High School on the Hudson link:
These days, American counterterror policy is even more reliant on taking out individual militants. How exactly those individuals are picked for drone elimination is the matter of intense debate and speculation. The White House reportedly maintains a ┬"matrix┬" of the most dangerous militants. Social-network analysis ┬-- the science of determining the connections between people ┬-- almost certainly plays a role where those militants appear on that matrix.
Kinetic events and various nefarious activities are traced from bomb makers, bomb emplacers, hit men, drug lords, prison escapees, and financiers to cell leaders, and their various networks via signatures analysis, link analysis, and All Source reporting. Sometimes called "social- network analysis". Think of the "Matrix" as a sort of Ancestors.com on steroids and you'll not be far afield. It is a law enforcement or warrant approach vs classic military meeting engagement, ie, search and destroy the enemy.
As bad actors become more and more active in a specific region, their activities are validated and added to their rap sheet or "Matrix". The Matrix is then updated and annotated to reflect desired outcomes relative to the insurgent.
The bad guys or insurgent leaders have various methods to combat network analysis. Some of those methods include; name changes (most have several to include niks); subcontracting events through cut-outs, staying off the cellie or using half a dozen different cellies; disinformation provided by detainees during interrogation; moving to a different province; returning to PAK and going dormant.
Just because they are not educated, does not mean they are stupid.
Posted by Besoeker 2012-12-08 12:27||
#11 "Expert" studies have a frequent tendency to conclude that actions fail to work and may even cause harm on the balance. They tend to especially disparage violent actions as being not only immoral, but also ineffective. If we followed their logic, we would have responded to Pearl Harbor by ignoring it or by making a "proportionate" response of attacking one Japanese military base and we would have refrained from bombing Nazi Germany because bombing them would only have created more Nazis. They also have a problem of picking the right baseline for comparison. Inaction doesn't have to result in stasis, but frquently results in a deterioration that would be the correct baseline for a valid comparison.
Posted by Odysseus 2012-12-08 12:36||
#12 Excellent observation and analysis Ody. The problem isn't that we lack knowledge of what is taking place. The problem is we fail to do anything about it!
Posted by Besoeker 2012-12-08 12:39||
#13 Does anybody still study WT Sherman at that place?
Posted by Nimble Spemble 2012-12-08 13:29||
#14 If current events are any indication it would appear William T's sexual exploits have been well studied indeed. He was also fond of fine horses. By the time he reached Savannah he was reported to have had a private stable of nearly 70.
Posted by Besoeker 2012-12-08 15:43||
#15 Presumably no connection between the horses and is 'exploits'...
Posted by Glenmore 2012-12-08 18:52||
#16 Not to bust anyone's bubble, but once again I personally won't truly believe it until Ayman, Mullah Omar or Other formally acknowledge it.
Posted by JosephMendiola 2012-12-08 20:56||
#17 Takes 'em a couple days of scurrying to find a new hide-hole where they can issue their 'bulletins' from, Joe.
Posted by Mullah Richard 2012-12-08 22:03||
#18 First you reduce the flea population to a low level, then you kill the rats.
How do you do dat, P2K
Posted by tipper 2012-12-08 23:23||