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2013-10-11 -Signs, Portents, and the Weather-
Study: Radical Climate Change Just around the Corner
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Posted by Fred 2013-10-11 00:00|| E-Mail|| Front Page|| [1162 views ]  Top

#1 How many of these doomsday scenarios from previous years have actually panned out? G. F. Yourselves...
Posted by Raj 2013-10-11 00:17||   2013-10-11 00:17|| Front Page Top

#2 Since all the models that the IPCC and other doomsayers used failed to predict the current non-warming, they are all BS.
Posted by Rambler in Virginia 2013-10-11 01:54||   2013-10-11 01:54|| Front Page Top

#3 RIV, you put it so nicely.

I've had 30+ years in the software business and have created many models and analysed many more.

GIGO is the flaw in most all of them. People don't realize how simple the concept of a model is. Anyone who has ever created a spreadsheet has created a model.

Enter wanky data and you can get pretty much any result you want. (you should have seen my retirement fund when I got optimistic)

Crap, crap and more crap.
Posted by AlanC 2013-10-11 08:01||   2013-10-11 08:01|| Front Page Top

#4 Hmmmmmm...looks like this merits more study. Johnson, where's that grant paperwork?
Posted by tu3031 2013-10-11 08:25||   2013-10-11 08:25|| Front Page Top

#5 1. Global warming is occurring. (So is Climate Change.)
2. It has been going on with only small interruptions for the past 10,000 years.
3. Some component is due to CO2 production. Also methane release. Amount uncertain.
4. Many other factors are also in play - both man-influenced and not.
5. Some of those other man-influenced factors counteract the warming effect. Amount uncertain.
6. The science is not even close to 'settled.'
7. If burnable carbon can be burned it will be, by someone, fairly soon. No Treaty will change that.
8. The 'powerful ones' are fully aware of point 7, so the intentions are not to modify climate but to redistribute wealth, from US/EU to everyone else, and from suckers to connected individuals.
Posted by Glenmore 2013-10-11 08:30||   2013-10-11 08:30|| Front Page Top

#6 Whatever happened to the "hole in the ozone layer"? Does it not fit the current agenda, or did we fix it with duct tape?
Posted by OCCD 2013-10-11 09:26||   2013-10-11 09:26|| Front Page Top

#7 Where are the error bars? They show two different emission scenarios, but no estimate of the systematic error in the model.

The numbers are probably OK, provided they are given appropriate error estimates. Given the near-term climate history (Ice Ages), I'd go with +-100KY.
Posted by James  2013-10-11 11:04||  2013-10-11 11:04|| Front Page Top

#8 GIGO is a best case.

Recursively using outputs as inputs (for t+1) EXPONENTIALLY RAISES the ERROR.

if the error in the model or reading is 5%
after 10 (days) there's 41% error.
Posted by Bright Pebbles 2013-10-11 11:10||   2013-10-11 11:10|| Front Page Top

#9 BP, you are so right, BUT, we can't make the assumption that the original garbage was an error.

I presume that they knew what would happen to the result (or close enough) depending on the selected input and selected accordingly.

You should have seen my retirement funding when I entered a 25% yearly rate of return...after all it was just an estimate. ;^)
Posted by AlanC 2013-10-11 11:47||   2013-10-11 11:47|| Front Page Top

#10 We need these people to be held accountable when they recommend such massive/expensive/life changing things and they turn out to be so wrong.

It would at least get them to calm down on overblowing the rhettoric every time.
Posted by rjschwarz 2013-10-11 14:41||   2013-10-11 14:41|| Front Page Top

#11 Do your really think anyone in their right mind is paying attention to this blather on "Radical Climate Change"?

Frankly, I'm not because I know I will be dead within these 34 years. Thus I don't give a flying f*ck and I do tell people they are >ssholes if they bother to repeat such sh-t, to there face.

Posted by Snineger Ghibelline1693 2013-10-11 15:40||   2013-10-11 15:40|| Front Page Top

#12 "Whatever happened to the 'hole in the ozone layer'?"

Good question, OCCD.

I've got another question along those lines:

Since we didn't know about the "hole in the ozone layer" until we put up satellites, how to we know it's hasn't been around for centuries (or millinnia)?

Anyway, I'm sure you're right - duct tape can fix anything. ;-p
Posted by Barbara 2013-10-11 17:37||   2013-10-11 17:37|| Front Page Top

#13 The problem with the model could be GIGO. The problem could also be that there are several factors that are not included in the model that are actually very critical to the real climate. This could because scientists aren't aware of their importance, or they don't have the data for those variables. The worst case would be that they know about the variables, and their values, but when they add the information to the models, it doesn't give the results they want.
Posted by Rambler in Virginia 2013-10-11 18:29||   2013-10-11 18:29|| Front Page Top

#14 The problem could also be that there are several factors that are not included in the model that are actually very critical to the real climate.

Like that big bright orb in the sky every day. Of course, you can't really extort money from the rubes if there's nothing you can do about it.
Posted by Procopius2k 2013-10-11 18:40||   2013-10-11 18:40|| Front Page Top



Roughly in the same strategic place in the sky, but moving in the opposite/reverse driection, as the later CHELYABINSK twin bolides that exploded over Mama Russia earlier this yeear. Russia thinks the Chelybinsk bolides may had come from a family of siblings out in space.

Posted by JosephMendiola 2013-10-11 20:00||   2013-10-11 20:00|| Front Page Top

23:58 JosephMendiola
23:55 JosephMendiola
23:04 Frank G
22:46 Glenmore
22:41 Glenmore
22:37 Pappy
21:45 KBK
21:40 Zenobia Floger6220
21:19 SteveS
21:14 SteveS
21:08 USN, Ret
21:04 USN, Ret
21:01 USN, Ret
20:54 Mullah Richard
20:34 Rambler in Virginia
20:20 Mullah Richard
20:00 JosephMendiola
19:45 JosephMendiola
19:43 Rambler in Virginia
19:35 CrazyFool
19:35 JosephMendiola
19:33 Rambler in Virginia
19:31 Old Patriot
19:25 Thing From Snowy Mountain

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