Article

2014-09-20 Africa Subsaharan

CDC: Ebola Worst-Case Scenario Has More Than 500,000 Cases

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Posted by Besoeker 2014-09-20 00:00|| || Front Page|| [5 views ] Top

#1 Until we know what stops the epidemic, any number is little more than guesswork.

Not clear from the article but 550,000 is by the end of January. Just 4 months away. And it keeps doubling from there.

Pick a number and add a few zeros.

Posted by phil_b 2014-09-20 01:20|| 2014-09-20 01:20|| Front Page Top

#2 It's a scale problem.

The epidemic is growing faster than the resources to combat it.

And that's only going to get worse, I'm afraid.

Posted by phil_b 2014-09-20 04:18|| 2014-09-20 04:18|| Front Page Top

#3 What she said.

Posted by Procopius2k 2014-09-20 07:56|| 2014-09-20 07:56|| Front Page Top

#4 I love that clip!
"It's the only way to be sure!"

Posted by Skidmark 2014-09-20 08:29|| 2014-09-20 08:29|| Front Page Top

#5 Until we know what stops the epidemic, any number is little more than guesswork.

Exactly. The actual worst-case scenario is, most of humanity will be wiped out. Perhaps the CDC has arbitrarily plucked a scary-sounding number out of thin air, because the reality sounds too incredible?

Posted by RandomJD 2014-09-20 10:04|| 2014-09-20 10:04|| Front Page Top

#6 Are we heading towards a 1917 pandemic?

Posted by JohnQC 2014-09-20 11:47|| 2014-09-20 11:47|| Front Page Top

#7 I'm expecting a breakout in the US before the November elections. Oh, say, New Orleans or maybe Miami.
Suspension of travel and communication.

Posted by ed in texas 2014-09-20 12:36|| 2014-09-20 12:36|| Front Page Top

#8 ed, that's not funny.

I do believe that Tom Clancy had something to say about this, a couple of times.

Posted by AlanC 2014-09-20 13:10|| 2014-09-20 13:10|| Front Page Top

#9 Suspension of travel and communication.

Why would they suspend communication? There's no disease that can be transmitted by cell phone, and people working from home on their laptops -- or playing Candy Crush -- aren't as likely to run amok in the streets.

Posted by trailing wife 2014-09-20 17:54|| 2014-09-20 17:54|| Front Page Top

#10 Are we heading towards a 1917 pandemic?

The big question for me is, will this spread outside of tropical Africa where all ebola transmission to date has ocurred?

There seems to be an assumption it won't.

Maybe the Haj will give us the answer.

Posted by phil_b 2014-09-20 17:56|| 2014-09-20 17:56|| Front Page Top

#11 Why would they suspend communication?

To suppress the 'panic'. What ed is indirectly referring to is to suppress or steal an election they stand to lose heavily in.

Posted by Procopius2k 2014-09-20 18:26|| 2014-09-20 18:26|| Front Page Top

#12 it shouldn't be too bad outside of west Africa, because if even one case turns up there, hundreds of people will respond to suppress transmission and trace contacts.

in west Africa though, there is no one left to respond. so it will spread until the proportion of the population immune to ebola is about the reciprocal of the retransmission rate, which is two. so two-thirds of the people will get this and half of those will become immune before it is done.

this sort of exponential phenomena is what did in fukashima. once it got too hot, there was no way to stop it. and in my opinion, Liberia is already too hot. some of these other countries are pretty hot but it is still too close to call.

Posted by rammer 2014-09-20 21:55|| 2014-09-20 21:55|| Front Page Top

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