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2018-01-05 Southeast Asia

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Posted by 746 2018-01-05 00:00|| || Front Page|| [2 views ] Top

#1 You expect democracy to survive a sea of corruption? Just look south. They keep it going by dumping millions upon their northern neighbor to avoid reform or revolution at home.

Posted by Procopius2k 2018-01-05 07:03|| 2018-01-05 07:03|| Front Page Top

#2 I think it's within the realm of possibility that the PI become a Chinese province, sometime in the 21st century. The country has no shortage of natural resources, but a profound shortage of good leaders. Duterte appears to be shepherding the process along, with his repeated territorial concessions to the Chinese. The strange thing is that Chinese rule might improve the lives of the hoi polloi in the Philippines. Of course, American rule would provide an even bigger boost. But that bridge was crossed over 70 years ago.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2018-01-05 15:55|| 2018-01-05 15:55|| Front Page Top

#3 What's the opinion of the Hoi Polloi about the Chinese in their other colonies, like Laos, Cambodia and the borderline cases like Nepal, Myanmar and Mongolia?

Posted by Thing From Snowy Mountain 2018-01-05 18:53|| 2018-01-05 18:53|| Front Page Top

#4 What's the opinion of the Hoi Polloi about the Chinese in their other colonies, like Laos, Cambodia and the borderline cases like Nepal, Myanmar and Mongolia?

I get the impression there's a lot of envy, but no real pogroms, thanks to growing fear of China's economic (given that China is, for the most part, the biggest market for their natural resources and agricultural output) and military power.

Frankly, Indonesia, the Philippines and Burma would all benefit economically from Chinese rule. Not because the CPC is any great shakes, governance-wise, but because the Chinese market would immediately be wide open to them without any tariffs and other trade barriers, and Chinese administration, while imperfect, is far less corrupt than local management. Malaysia's Mahathir Mohamad is reputed to be worth hundreds of millions of dollars (and some say billions). That's roughly the net worth of Xi Jinping's extended family, despite the fact that graft-wise, Xi has a much bigger country's economy to draw upon.

The entrenched local elites would suffer from unfettered competition with Chinese interlopers. However, the people below them would benefit greatly from the massive Chinese government infrastructure projects. And these projects have always been a part of expanding the empire's economy for thousands of years, going back to the days of the 1,100 mile long Grand Canal 1400 years ago. What prevents those countries from catching China is a combination of inferior human resources at the managerial (and above) level, and poor infrastructure. Both are fixed with the infusion of Chinese managers and Chinese infrastructure. It would work as well with Taiwanese, Japanese, Korean or white rule. But the West has cast off the white man's burden and those other Far Eastern countries simply aren't in the business of empire-building, with the massive military expenditures and the mass killings of local elites tied to the ancien regime that empire-building entails.

Having said that, Chinese expansion would be terrible for American interests. We'd lose some access to the economies of these countries. Then there's the strategic implications of having all of the Far East under China's thumb. We went to war with Japan to prevent it from adding all of China to its holdings. Why would we stand by as the Chinese empire became even bigger?

Posted by Zhang Fei 2018-01-05 19:47|| 2018-01-05 19:47|| Front Page Top

#5 Then there's the strategic implications of having all of the Far East under China's thumb.

Like having to manufacture stuff back home?

Posted by Procopius2k 2018-01-05 19:50|| 2018-01-05 19:50|| Front Page Top

#6 Nope. Waterway control. Access to natural resources. The danger to the down under members (i.e. Australia and New Zealand) of ABCA Armies, which might also be thought of as the empire upon which the sun never set (given that it includes Diego Garcia and Hawaii).

Posted by Zhang Fei 2018-01-05 20:02|| 2018-01-05 20:02|| Front Page Top

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