Article

2005-03-18 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

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Posted by Fred 2005-03-18 11:43:22 PM|| || Front Page|| [12 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 I'll keep my fingers crossed on this.

Posted by phil_b 2005-03-18 12:14:56 AM|| 2005-03-18 12:14:56 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 If this is a serious split, then SYria will end up boiling into a "Lebanon". Which is a good thing from one point of view: Hezbollah will be caugh in the middle of a hurricane and have no local support (Iran will have a hard time getting things through the infighting in Damascus and Bekka) - and Hamas will have its (mainly Syrian) support almost completely ruptured.

I say hope for a very evenly matched civil war which will wear down both sides militarily and fiscally, to the betterment of all surrounding nations (except Iran).

Posted by OldSpook 2005-03-18 12:25:25 AM|| 2005-03-18 12:25:25 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 Sounds like they're talking about a coup by hardliners... not the good guys... I don't know why you'd have your fingers crossed, unless you're hoping against the coup.

Posted by Damn_Proud_American 2005-03-18 12:25:42 AM|| [http://brighterfuture.blogspot.com] 2005-03-18 12:25:42 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 OldSpook, how about instead of hoping for the syrians to suffer for years under a civil war, we hope and support the people of syria in their aspirations for a free and democratic country? With our military if neccesary.

Posted by Damn_Proud_American 2005-03-18 12:27:26 AM|| [http://brighterfuture.blogspot.com] 2005-03-18 12:27:26 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 How about Iraq's military?

Posted by someone 2005-03-18 12:30:23 AM|| 2005-03-18 12:30:23 AM|| Front Page Top

#6 Hard line status quo who wants to not budge on the drug and smuggling operations via Lebanon against a stupid but pragmatic Baby Assad? Could be, but it could be his own family against him too. We don't need anything unpredictable right now. Slow and certain is better than fast and uncertain.

Posted by Sock Puppet Oâ Doom 2005-03-18 12:31:29 AM|| [http://www.slhess.com] 2005-03-18 12:31:29 AM|| Front Page Top

#7 Dunno if this is the same debunked coup as yesterday...

Posted by Seafarious 2005-03-18 1:06:45 AM|| 2005-03-18 1:06:45 AM|| Front Page Top

#8 Slow and certain is better than fast and uncertain.

That attitude kept despots in power and locked the Arab world in squalor for the better part of a century.

Posted by AzCat 2005-03-18 1:58:53 AM|| 2005-03-18 1:58:53 AM|| Front Page Top

#9 There are two reasons I am keeping my fingers crosed. 1. is whenever a thugocrat gets his just desserts preferably of the 9mm variety it is good thing and an object lesson for others. 2. Any government that replaces Assad will almost certainly move towards satisfying the international demands on Lebanon, terrorism, etc. because Syria's current precarious position results from these policies and would be the cause of the coup. I think a worse government would be unlikely.

Posted by phil_b 2005-03-18 2:01:30 AM|| 2005-03-18 2:01:30 AM|| Front Page Top

#10 Indeed it is. I can't believe people are still posting this.

Posted by Robert Mayer 2005-03-18 2:06:45 AM|| [http://www.publiuspundit.com] 2005-03-18 2:06:45 AM|| Front Page Top

#11 Slow certain death is still death. By Slow I mean 6 months not 6 days and I don't mean 6 years. Assad has to go, we need to be in a position to make sure there is a benifit by whatever happens. We don't need it getting worse.

Posted by Sock Puppet Oâ Doom 2005-03-18 2:09:26 AM|| [http://www.slhess.com] 2005-03-18 2:09:26 AM|| Front Page Top

#12 In recent memory whenever a tyranny fell, it happened quickly (USSR, Romania, East Germany). Once the society reaches the tipping point -- or even just one faction of the ruling clique does -- the tyrant's hold is not just loosened but broken completely. If this were true (a pity it's not, but thanks to publiuspundit for keeping a close eye on it for us), I would expect to see Assad and a very few of his supporters suddenly reappear in Paris or Saudi Arabia, and the situation turn very quickly. The Syrians have seen their rulers unable to quell the situation in Lebanon, and that says they can't pull another Hama massacre. And if they can't, why should the the populace fear, and why should Assad's rivals hold back the knives that have always been in their fists?

The only time where this wouldn't hold true, is if the regime is supported by an outside power running interference. Examples would be Europe supporting Arafat's PA, China supporting North Korea. But even Iran isn't likely to openly stand against the world for their Syrian clients.

I vote with Old Spook: let them fight themselves out if it comes to that, then deal with the result. Either one Baath faction will win, in which case we continue current pressures until it folds; or, the people win, and and we help them get to work on establishing democracy in both Syria and unoccupied Lebanon, inasmuch as is possible -- which may not be very much, given the byzantine politics they so much enjoy; or, the situation degenerates into civil war, in which case no intervention short of MOABs will put a stop to it until they've worn themselves out -- especially as Iran is likely to keep stirring the pot to aid their favorite faction -- but the Syrians then won't be able to devote their attention to Lebanon, which can concentrate on rebuilding its democracy.

That's my opinion, worth exactly what you just didn't pay to hear it. ;-)

Posted by trailing wife 2005-03-18 4:12:00 AM|| 2005-03-18 4:12:00 AM|| Front Page Top

#13 LOL. The valuation on your opinion is pretty high in my book trailing wife.

I wonder and worry about blowback from things we may or may not have done years and years ago when stuff comes unglued in this region. These people have long memories and violent way of evening up percieved slights and affronts. Stuff we don't need flowing into Iraq.

I wonder if this coup is actually about Saddams WMDs and goodies. Assad may not even know about them. The hardliners may have them and want to keep their options open with them. Saddam and the Iraqi Baathists are never going to use them, They are Syria's now. I wonder what's the motovations are if this indeed is happening? If it isn't Baby Assad is getting himself ready in case someone tries.

Posted by Sock Puppet Oâ Doom 2005-03-18 5:13:42 AM|| [http://www.slhess.com] 2005-03-18 5:13:42 AM|| Front Page Top

#14 Nothing reported on DEBKA or in the JP. Other blogs report Syrian bloggers have not confirmed anything.

Posted by Steve 2005-03-18 8:30:05 AM|| 2005-03-18 8:30:05 AM|| Front Page Top

#15 It may be shocking to us RBers, but public opinion in Damascus is probably very pro-Assad.

Partly this is due to fear of losing patronage; partly fear of change; partly a bizarre feeling that Syria is the candle in the wind of Arab pride (Elton John could write a song about that - oops he did).

I'm hoping for a military take over but to do it will require someone coming up with a 'Assad has betrayed us' story that has resonance with the locals.

However, the really good news here is that Assad is dependent on the good will of the locals. As Martha used to say, 'and that's a good thing'.

Posted by mhw 2005-03-18 8:33:02 AM|| 2005-03-18 8:33:02 AM|| Front Page Top

#16 mhw, I can state with confidence that public opinion in Damascus loathes Assad. Most Damascenes are Sunnis Arabs and Assad is a member of an obscure mountain sect that has been murdering Sunnis for years.

Posted by phil_b 2005-03-18 9:13:22 AM|| 2005-03-18 9:13:22 AM|| Front Page Top

#17 Id really like to see a detailed analysis of Syrian politics, which at bottom may be as communal as Lebanon or Iraq (perhaps more so than Iraq). Also we need to distinguish being opponents of the Baath regime, and possible opposition to Assad from WITHIN the Baath power structure. I know little about the latter, which by its nature will be secretive. as to the former, my understanding is the Alawites are proregime, the Kurds are antiregime. The biggest group, the Sunni Arabs, are questionable. The Islamists among them rose against the state and were crushed - OTOH they have no love for us, and may be reconciled to the regime - and of course Assad is sending them into Iraq to die whenever possible. Secular Sunnis would have good reason to support the regime, for protection against the Islamists. The other big groups are Druze and Orthodox Christians (no Maronites in Syria) - im not sure about them.

Posted by liberalhawk 2005-03-18 9:14:18 AM|| 2005-03-18 9:14:18 AM|| Front Page Top

#18 a good source for a peek under the curtain comes from Josh Landis

http://faculty-staff.ou.edu/L/Joshua.M.Landis-1/syriablog/

he is in Damascus this year and will return to the U of Oklahoma in 2006

Josh's Syrian friends range from mildly to very pro Assad. Of course, these are university types and their kin who have a stake in the ruling class remaining the ruling class.

Posted by mhw 2005-03-18 9:26:50 AM|| 2005-03-18 9:26:50 AM|| Front Page Top

#19 hes the guy publius linked to? the guy who thinks Satloff has been running US policy on the middle east for the last 15 years? who confused phalangists with South Lebanese Army in talking about the site that first reported the non-coup? Excuse me, but he dont impress me much.

Posted by liberalhawk 2005-03-18 9:39:01 AM|| 2005-03-18 9:39:01 AM|| Front Page Top

#20 "debunked" coups still give the authorities the willies, heh heh. Time for a purge?

Posted by Frank G 2005-03-18 10:00:36 AM|| 2005-03-18 10:00:36 AM|| Front Page Top

#21 LH
I'm not recommending Josh for his analysis of the ME. He has a good education and he is a good writer and analyst but makes mistakes just like other people (especially people who blog). He also has a tendency to accept at face value the arab nationalism that he studies.

I'm recommending him for his reporting of what his coffee buddies are saying to him, what his girl friend's father says to him, what his sports bar buddies say to him, etc.

Posted by mhw 2005-03-18 10:13:48 AM|| 2005-03-18 10:13:48 AM|| Front Page Top

#22 mhw, you WANT a military takeover in Syria? As in, hardliner Ba'athists who don't want to give up the Bekka Valley and what's hidden there?

not me.

Posted by too true 2005-03-18 11:10:51 AM|| 2005-03-18 11:10:51 AM|| Front Page Top

#23 re: debunked coup, I think the problem is with the term 'coup'. As I read the account, what you have is a refusal to execute policies and carry out orders, but not (yet, at least) a removal of Assad himself.

The latter is indeed debunked, but the former probably is happening.

Posted by too true 2005-03-18 11:12:08 AM|| 2005-03-18 11:12:08 AM|| Front Page Top

#24 Good comment there trailing wife. Few women have the mind to figure out such hi stakes power struggles amongst men. Caroline Glick can do it.

Posted by sea cruise 2005-03-18 11:13:51 AM|| 2005-03-18 11:13:51 AM|| Front Page Top

#25 Few women have the mind to figure out such hi stakes power struggles amongst men.??

Woo hoo - stand back! Emily, any comment on that? LOL

Posted by Frank G 2005-03-18 11:17:50 AM|| 2005-03-18 11:17:50 AM|| Front Page Top

#26 I hear heavy turrents revolving.....

Posted by Shipman 2005-03-18 11:26:18 AM|| 2005-03-18 11:26:18 AM|| Front Page Top

#27 Noooooooooooooooo! I hear healthy turents revolving.

Posted by Shipman 2005-03-18 11:27:32 AM|| 2005-03-18 11:27:32 AM|| Front Page Top

#28 That's ok, Frank. Few man do, either. Most members of both sexes who can are either in the business, or here at Rantburg, methinks. Or quietly and desperately going mad because nobody in their world sees.

Emily might see sea cruise's comment differently, of course. But then, she knows more about sea creatures than I do... being one herself, I presume. But my brother-in-law is former navy, and sometimes we just humour him ;-) (And sometimes he returns the favour, so that's ok.)

Posted by trailing wife 2005-03-18 11:42:12 AM|| 2005-03-18 11:42:12 AM|| Front Page Top

#29 Shipman, dear, have a tall glass of something cold, and try again. You're just a little overexcited by Frank's comment. ;-)

Posted by trailing wife 2005-03-18 11:49:05 AM|| 2005-03-18 11:49:05 AM|| Front Page Top

#30 too true

Yes I want a military coup. It is true that there are some hardline military types who don't want to leave Lebanon. However, there are those who wanted to leave Lebanon 5 years ago. Most of the Syrian military don't really give a s..t either way.

This, however, isn't really that important. The Syrian military will leave Lebanon -- the only argument is whether they will still have some force in the populated areas for the May elections or whether all the military will be in the Bekaa valley and of course there are a few other issues like the Syria intell service, etc.

The way I see it, the military will depend on the business class (mostly Sunni secularists) for their support. The secularists will want a transition to civilian rule and to the kind of govt which maximizes profits. This probably leads to a stupid Arabist type system of oligopolies for a while but that can be cured in time and, in any case, it would be an improvement over the massive, systemically klepto-socialist mess they have now. The desire for profit will eventually lead the govt to lower their coorperation with Hizbollah (although at first they will learn to maximize skimming off the Iranian assistance that they are supposed to convey).

Posted by mhw 2005-03-18 11:53:02 AM|| 2005-03-18 11:53:02 AM|| Front Page Top

#31 There is a lot going on here and we only are seeing the tip of the iceberg. Remember Mubarak met with Assad on Wednesday. Anybody want to bet against me that he might have been carrying a message about how to stay healthy from our Prez?
Assad-Mubarak meeting from Lebanese Newspaper

Assad Portraits are being disfigured in Beiruit...
London Financial Times

BBC reports that the onjly Syrian Troops in Lebanon are in Bekaa (~8000)

Read between the lines and there are three forces at work... Hardliners, Revolutionaries, and Assadites... Civil war looms...

I hope the Prez has some CIA guys trying to pull the right strings and push the right buttons...

The Brits and Froggys are with us on this, the Rus' want Syria out of Lebanon, and are too worried about thge Chechens, etc, to get involved in Syria's internal politix...and the Chinese are too far away... (Remember we & the Brits have a pipeline next door...) The time is right...

Posted by BigEd 2005-03-18 12:06:29 PM|| 2005-03-18 12:06:29 PM|| Front Page Top

#32 (1) Arm the Kurds.
(2) Tell them Syria is their new homeland if they can take it.
(3) Stand back.

Posted by rjschwarz 2005-03-18 3:25:33 PM|| [http://rjschwarz.com] 2005-03-18 3:25:33 PM|| Front Page Top

#33 Why dont we get up a collection for Bashir to become a Pearl Vision franchisee so he can get out while the getting is good.

How can anyone expect to look like a menacing overlord with a chin like that. Its like watching Don Knotts starring as "il duce", it.just.doesnt.work

Posted by frank martin 2005-03-18 3:55:43 PM|| [http://www.varifrank.com] 2005-03-18 3:55:43 PM|| Front Page Top

#34 frank m.- Why don't we get up a collection for Bashir to become a Pearl Vision franchisee so he can get out while the getting is good.

There is also "60-Minute-Spectacles" and "Eye Exam 2000". He has "CHOICES". LOL

Posted by BigEd 2005-03-18 5:04:57 PM|| 2005-03-18 5:04:57 PM|| Front Page Top

#35 Beware irrational exuberance. If the Middle East is beginning to resemble the E. Europe of the 1980s, it's more like 1981, with Solidarnosc just starting to stir things up, than 1989.

Long road ahead, lots of bumps and reverses to come. Let's not get cocky.

Posted by thibaud (aka lex) 2005-03-18 7:16:07 PM|| 2005-03-18 7:16:07 PM|| Front Page Top

#36 If this is a serious split, then SYria will end up boiling into a "Lebanon". Which is a good thing from one point of view: Hezbollah will be caugh in the middle of a hurricane and have no local support (Iran will have a hard time getting things through the infighting in Damascus and Bekka) - and Hamas will have its (mainly Syrian) support almost completely ruptured.

I say hope for a very evenly matched civil war which will wear down both sides militarily and fiscally, to the betterment of all surrounding nations (except Iran).

Posted by OldSpook 2005-03-18 12:25:25 AM|| 2005-03-18 12:25:25 AM|| Front Page Top

#37 Off-topic or abusive comments deleted]

Posted by OldSpook 2005-03-18 12:25:25 AM|| 2005-03-18 12:25:25 AM|| Front Page Top

23:58 Spaimble Hupaiper3886
23:50 nada
23:35 Spaimble Hupaiper3886
23:34 Bobby
23:12 Alaska Paul
23:10 Alaska Paul
23:09 Bomb-a-rama
23:05 Bobby
23:02 JosephMendiola
23:02 Bobby
23:00 Bobby
22:58 Desert Blondie
22:56 Bomb-a-rama
22:48 Silentbrick
22:42 Alaska Paul
22:29 James
22:25 Alaska Paul
22:23 James
22:21 Alaska Paul
22:17 Desert Blondie
22:09 Big Sarge
22:08 Frank G
22:03 Desert Blondie
22:01 3dc