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2007-10-13 -Signs, Portents, and the Weather-

Whalers were astounded when they ran out of buyers before they ran out of whales"

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Posted by Seafarious 2007-10-13 04:23|| || Front Page|| [9 views ] Top

#1 Any time someone tells me that the government needs to get involved in alternative fuels (beyond some basic research), I make precisely this argument to them. The best solutions to changing economic bases and models are always market ones.

In the 1830's, Nantucket was the wealthiest town in the U.S. and one of the wealthiest in the world. By the 1850's, it was so poor that the town government didn't even bother to collect taxes. The difference? Petroleum, which displaced whale oil as a lamp fuel.

The oil ticks in the ME should take notice.

Posted by no mo uro 2007-10-13 06:40|| 2007-10-13 06:40|| Front Page Top

#2 Hmmmm...in the 1850's the federal government wasn't telling hand owners what they could and could not do with their property. In the 1850's the federal government wasn't concerned about ~~supporting a state religion to Gaia~~ environmental 'issues'. In the 1850s the federal government didn't have the power or the treasury to subsidize a 'declining' industry through financial or regulatory means.

I think the key here is 'the government didn't have the power'. Regardless of what we would like, I doubt we'll get that genie back into the bottle.

Posted by Procopius2k 2007-10-13 09:17|| 2007-10-13 09:17|| Front Page Top

#3 Bah...wasn't telling land owners...

Time for that cup of coffee.

Posted by Procopius2k 2007-10-13 09:18|| 2007-10-13 09:18|| Front Page Top

#4 A while back I was amazed at the double breakthrough in Aerogel, making it both far less expensive and flexible, not brittle. Aerogel is a superb insulator, good from -130F to 1600F. If you had a few millimeters of Aerogel insulting your house, you would just need a tiny amount of cooling in summer and heating in winter to make your house comfortable.

Heat from your appliances and body might be enough to heat your house in the dead of winter. And one window air conditioner to cool an entire house in summer. The only significant heat exchange would be from cracks and opening doors.

Posted by Anonymoose 2007-10-13 09:37|| 2007-10-13 09:37|| Front Page Top

#5 ... and glass?

Posted by jds 2007-10-13 13:53|| 2007-10-13 13:53|| Front Page Top

#6 There is no free market in petroleum, cartels are in control.

Posted by Anguper Hupomosing9418 2007-10-13 15:44|| 2007-10-13 15:44|| Front Page Top

#7 jds: If you use tinted double pane glass, with inside shades for summer, radiated heat in or out isn't that bad. The Aerogel insulation can also be used inside a refrigerator, and to insulate water pipes and ductwork.

With some clever home construction redesign it could either be used for permanence or pre-fab homes. Two inch thick walls could have ductwork, plumbing, electrical and communications built right in to them, yet be pretty soundproof and insulating.

Posted by Anonymoose 2007-10-13 20:41|| 2007-10-13 20:41|| Front Page Top

#8 The problem with oil is not that we are going to run out of the stuff. The problem is we have very limited and highly questionable data on forward supply so the market has no means to properly price current and future supply.

Normally a market can tell us how much something will be worth next year or next decade and price currently supply appropriately. The market obviously can be wrong due to future uncertainties, but thats irrelevant, because in a functioning market replacements will be bid up to the point they become viable at the time they are required (with appropriate risk premiums).

Paradoxical as it might sound, the energy crisis could be solved at stroke by guaranteeing that all the world's major oilfields will turned into glassed nuclear parking lots at midnight on Dec 31, 2015. As this would achieve visibility of supply, allow the markets to work and of course force the politicians to get out of the way.

Posted by phil_b 2007-10-13 20:56|| 2007-10-13 20:56|| Front Page Top

23:48 Zenster
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