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2007-11-03 India-Pakistan

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Posted by lotp 2007-11-03 09:36|| || Front Page|| [3 views ] Top

#1 The "emergency" has been going on for some time. There has been a red hemmoraging originating and spreading from this area for some time. There will be more much more bloodletting before the patient gets better. (John QC's comment from dumped duplicate thread)

Posted by Seafarious">Seafarious 2007-11-03 10:05|| 2007-11-03 10:05|| Front Page Top

#2 Condoleezza Rice, speaking to reporters Thursday en route to diplomatic meetings in Turkey and the Middle East, said the U.S. would not support any move by Musharraf to declare martial law

Forgeting the rise of the Ayatullahs, are we Dr. Rice?

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2007-11-03 10:19|| 2007-11-03 10:19|| Front Page Top

#3 So, Perv finally figured out how to retain the presidency and still keep all of his sprockets on. Boy howdy, I'll bet nobody saw this coming.

There will be more much more bloodletting before the patient gets better.

I'm thinking this may well fall into the category of: "The operation was a success but the patient died."

Posted by Zenster">Zenster 2007-11-03 10:21|| 2007-11-03 10:21|| Front Page Top

#4 CNN sez Martial Law declared - troops in the state-run TV and radio stations, phone lines down. Mr. Chaudry should avoid "resisting arrest", I'd say

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2007-11-03 10:22|| 2007-11-03 10:22|| Front Page Top

#5 Troops have entered the Supreme Court building

Posted by john frum 2007-11-03 10:30|| 2007-11-03 10:30|| Front Page Top

#6 CNN sez:

In Islamabad, troops entered the Supreme Court and were surrounding the judges' homes, according to CNN's Syed Mohsin Naqvi.

The Supreme Court has declared the state of emergency illegal, Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry told CNN. He said he and an eight-member panel of judges decided the declaration was unconstitutional, and that Musharraf has no power to make it.

Posted by Seafarious">Seafarious 2007-11-03 10:31|| 2007-11-03 10:31|| Front Page Top

#7 More:

Musharraf garnered a vast majority of votes in presidential elections last month; however, those results have not been certified by the nation's high court.

For weeks the country has been coasting in a state of political limbo while the Supreme Court works to tackle legal challenges filed by the opposition that calls into question Musharraf's eligibility to hold office. Some have speculated that a declaration of emergency is tied to rumors the court is planning to rule against Musharraf.

Posted by Seafarious">Seafarious 2007-11-03 10:34|| 2007-11-03 10:34|| Front Page Top

#8 Really? The guns pointing at their heads imply no power? Really?

Posted by 3dc 2007-11-03 10:34|| 2007-11-03 10:34|| Front Page Top

#9 I gotta say that we'll all know this is serious once Perv begins some really heavy atritting over at the ISI's headquarters. Until then, it's just business as usual.

Posted by Zenster">Zenster 2007-11-03 10:36|| 2007-11-03 10:36|| Front Page Top

#10 So. Not a state of emergency so the gov't can go in and whack the turbans-n-automatic weapons set, but a state of emergency so's Mushy can keep his job and his sprockets.

Feh.

Posted by Seafarious">Seafarious 2007-11-03 10:36|| 2007-11-03 10:36|| Front Page Top

#11 The Chief Justice has been removed from the building.
All Judges will now swear oath of loyalty under the PCO.
Justice Dogar is the new Chief Justice

Posted by john frum 2007-11-03 10:38|| 2007-11-03 10:38|| Front Page Top

#12 It's clear who Perv considers his true enemy. I guess the pen really is mightier than the sword.

Posted by Seafarious">Seafarious 2007-11-03 10:41|| 2007-11-03 10:41|| Front Page Top

#13 Perv begins some really heavy atritting over at the ISI's headquarters

The ISI doesn't have permanent staff. The personnel comes from the Army, Navy and Air Force and they rotate back to their units.

The ISI chief is appointed by and reports to Perv.
Perv can easily dictate which officers get assigned to ISI duty.

Posted by john frum 2007-11-03 10:42|| 2007-11-03 10:42|| Front Page Top

#14 US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said on Friday that the United States opposed any move by President General Pervez Musharraf to impose martial law and Pakistan must proceed with elections next year.

Posted by john frum 2007-11-03 10:43|| 2007-11-03 10:43|| Front Page Top

#15 Perv can easily dictate which officers get assigned to ISI duty.

Thank you, john frum. This is exactly why I gauge Perv's sincerity against the ISI being dismantled. I realize how such an act goes entirely against Perv's general strategy but it would be one of the only moves that could persuade me as to his sincerity in truly turning things around in Pakistan. From all indications so far, this is merely ~~another interation of the usual Pak power grab~~ a process of "validating" the recent elections.

Posted by Zenster">Zenster 2007-11-03 10:53|| 2007-11-03 10:53|| Front Page Top

#16 More:

A Pakistani intelligence official said that a list had been prepared of prominent Pakistani journalists and opposition politicians who would be detained.

The US message was delivered in person by Admiral Fallon:

A senior American commander, Adm. William J. Fallon, warned Pakistans president on Friday not to impose emergency rule, saying that doing so would jeopardize American financial support for the military here.

Posted by Seafarious">Seafarious 2007-11-03 10:57|| 2007-11-03 10:57|| Front Page Top

#17 PPP politician Aitzaz Ahsan and Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry arrested and taken to undisclosed location

Posted by john frum 2007-11-03 11:11|| 2007-11-03 11:11|| Front Page Top

#18 Informed Comment is liveblogging from Islamabad, but so far not much new.

Posted by Seafarious">Seafarious 2007-11-03 11:15|| 2007-11-03 11:15|| Front Page Top

#19 Ahsan is acting as Chaudry's lawyer, and was expecting to be arrested.

Posted by Seafarious">Seafarious 2007-11-03 11:16|| 2007-11-03 11:16|| Front Page Top

#20 A senior American commander, Adm. William J. Fallon, warned Pakistans president on Friday not to impose emergency rule, saying that doing so would jeopardize American financial support for the military here.

That's the important bit, I think. President General Dr. Musharref has finally openly chosen sides, and hopefully so have we. Let him intrigue for control of Islamabad; we won't give him any more support, and we won't ask permission to go a-hunting in the frontier and tribal provinces. Only the State Department can screw this up now, and they're busy fighting a rear guard action to avoid being sent to Iraq.

Posted by trailing wife">trailing wife 2007-11-03 12:07|| 2007-11-03 12:07|| Front Page Top

#21 I'm sure Dr. Rice knows a lot of things that I don't. But from where I sit it looks like PakiWakiland is headed for a full on civil war. I should think that now more than ever Perv would need her support. Maybe she's having a problem with his perceived lack of legitimacy. But she's gonna end up looking worse than jimmuh carter if one of the mullahs seizes power and I wouldn't trust that Pak army to fend them off.

Posted by Abu Uluque6305 2007-11-03 12:09|| 2007-11-03 12:09|| Front Page Top

#22 Only the State Department can screw this up now, and they're busy fighting a rear guard action to avoid being sent to Iraq.

Heh. It couldn't happen to a more deserving bunch of screwups.

Posted by Zenster">Zenster 2007-11-03 12:14|| 2007-11-03 12:14|| Front Page Top

#23 Let's pray they fight to the death like good muzzies.
Let's see, one billion less about 4 percent,,,,carry the seven,,,oh, crap, I need a bigger bag of beans.

Posted by wxjames 2007-11-03 12:20|| 2007-11-03 12:20|| Front Page Top

#24 Rice and Fallon. And look at the disaster we have with them setting policy and tone.

We need to ge them both fired before Iran gets serious. They'd be a disaster.

As far as Perv goes, if he is using this to liquidate the Islamists in his government (including those on the courts) then thats good for us. If all he is doing is busting political opponents, then its bad. He needs to shoot judges - but the right ones.

How he handles the ISI will be the real measure of his intentions. I'm hoping for a "Night of the Long Knives" in the ISI - it would go a long way toward ridding that entire region of one of tis worst islamist backing influences.

Posted by OldSpook 2007-11-03 12:28|| 2007-11-03 12:28|| Front Page Top

#25 As long as Perv has the nukes, we're with him.

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2007-11-03 12:31|| 2007-11-03 12:31|| Front Page Top

#26 OS,

Why the negative waves on Fallon? While he hasn't done anything to impress me, not anything to make me negative, either. What have I missed?

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2007-11-03 12:33|| 2007-11-03 12:33|| Front Page Top

#27 I'm not a liberty to comment any further than my opinion.

Posted by OldSpook 2007-11-03 12:50|| 2007-11-03 12:50|| Front Page Top

#28 From that Informed Comment blog I linked to (via Instapundit), I regretfully note that the lead blogger there is (ptui) Juan Cole. Anyway here's some info from another post there:

Senator Chuck Hagel (R-NE) who has called for "Direct, Unconditional, Comprehensive Talks with Iran." Also US Central Command Commander William Fallon, who confirmed to some mutual acquaintances that he had indeed responded positively to Sen. Hagel's recommendation

Posted by Seafarious">Seafarious 2007-11-03 13:00|| 2007-11-03 13:00|| Front Page Top

#29 NS, Fallon took a placating stance towards China when he commanded in the PacRim. And he has made it pretty clear he will not support an attack on Iran.

Posted by lotp 2007-11-03 13:05|| 2007-11-03 13:05|| Front Page Top

#30 Here's an ugly scenario:
1) Perv goes down.
2) US hangs on to him too long or adamantly.
3) Perv's successors boost their own standing by flushing the US out along with Perv.
4) Putin comes to the 'aid' of the new regime.
5) US has to abandon Afghanistan because it cannot adequately support it logistically without the trans-Pakistan supply line (Uzbek line is a lot longer and already damaged.)
6) Taliban returns, stronger than ever, and with its enemy, the US, alone and weaker.
7) Taliban, and thus Al Quaeda end up with some or all of Pakistan's nukes.

The joker in the deck - India: how do they respond? Semi-dhimmitude or aggressive counterattack?

Posted by Glenmore">Glenmore 2007-11-03 13:07|| 2007-11-03 13:07|| Front Page Top

#31 Why did Bush appoint him to CentCom?

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2007-11-03 13:17|| 2007-11-03 13:17|| Front Page Top

#32 How he handles the ISI will be the real measure of his intentions.

Too right, 'Spook! Why am I not getting a warm fuzzy about this? Are you able to illuminate about America's contingency planning with respect to securing Pakistani nuclear weapons in the event of a hostile takeover? If we don't already have the precise locations of all their warheads, then any further aid to Perv et al should depend upon them cooperating in that regard.

Posted by Zenster">Zenster 2007-11-03 14:04|| 2007-11-03 14:04|| Front Page Top

#33 Why did Bush appoint him to CentCom?

Because he's an idiot! Need proof? Just look at some of his choices: Meyers, Gonzales, Rice, Fallon, Gates...etc. etc. Oh, I forgot...Amnesty for Illegals. Bush has been an unmitigated disaster for the Conservative Movement in this country.

Posted by Swine Porker8057 2007-11-03 14:11|| 2007-11-03 14:11|| Front Page Top

#34 Perv is going to have to be ye olde dictator to stay in power. We have been "coping" w/r/t Pakistan, hoping for the best and counting on that iffy outcome. I am worried about Pak nukes and hope that we have contingency plans. But the frontier areas have now become virtual Afghanistan, where Al Q and the Taliban have set up shop.

We have a serious monster in Pakistan trying to get loose. And I do not see a Plan formulated for this monster. We are again behind events. Bad place to be. Sun Tzu is wagging his finger at us from somewhere.

Posted by Alaska Paul">Alaska Paul 2007-11-03 14:34|| 2007-11-03 14:34|| Front Page Top

#35 Not much we coulda done in a "democratic" sovereign state that is an "ally", if they don't overtly attack us

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2007-11-03 14:55|| 2007-11-03 14:55|| Front Page Top

#36 PDF Text of the Emergency Proclamation

Posted by john frum 2007-11-03 15:35|| 2007-11-03 15:35|| Front Page Top

#37 Update:

Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto was sitting on a plane at Karachi airport Saturday following a decision by the government to impose a state of emergency, her spokesman said, as paramilitary troops started deploying in front of her house.

"She is waiting to see if she is going to be arrested or deported," Wajid Hasan said after speaking to the former Pakistani prime minister by telephone from London.

Posted by Seafarious">Seafarious 2007-11-03 16:03|| 2007-11-03 16:03|| Front Page Top

#38 Where are the nukes?...Last time they stashed them in China during crisis.....

Posted by Vinegar Angase8721 2007-11-03 17:27|| 2007-11-03 17:27|| Front Page Top

#39 So this story says that Musharraf stashed them in a couple places after 9/11.

In August the WaPo reported that the US intel community was frantically assessing whether Pakistani nuclear weapons would be secure if Perv fell, a concern that Pakistan shrugged immediately.

Posted by lotp 2007-11-03 18:14|| 2007-11-03 18:14|| Front Page Top

23:41 SteveS
22:44 trailing wife
22:40 trailing wife
22:29 trailing wife
21:48 HammerHead
21:43 trailing wife
21:22 trailing wife
21:21 Leonard Plynth Garnell
21:05 Zenster
20:43 OldSpook
20:41 mhw
20:38 twobyfour
20:28 lotp
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19:54 Nimble Spemble
19:52 Abdominal Snowman
19:41 Nimble Spemble
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19:31 Scooter McGruder
19:27 no mo uro
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19:16 Frank G