Article

2008-01-28 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

9 killed , dozens injured during Hezbollah-led protests in Lebanon

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Posted by Fred 2008-01-28 00:00|| || Front Page|| [8 views ] Top
File under: Hezbollah

#1 Heh, heh

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2008-01-28 05:49|| 2008-01-28 05:49|| Front Page Top

#2 The true Paris of the Mideast.

Posted by Sam Adamski 2008-01-28 09:16|| 2008-01-28 09:16|| Front Page Top

#3 Not clear if this is Hezbollah deciding to seriously hit the mattresses, as the above implies, or if its just Hezb taking advantage of a moment of opportuniy with the power cuts.

Posted by Dopey Flotle8127 2008-01-28 09:27|| 2008-01-28 09:27|| Front Page Top

#4 I'm expecting a multi-front attack on Israel from Hamas, within Lebanon and on Israel by Hezb'allah and probably to coincide with something really provocative from Iran - nuclear test explosion, runs at ships in the Straits or terror attacks in Europe and US.

Posted by lotp 2008-01-28 09:30|| 2008-01-28 09:30|| Front Page Top

#5 I'm always impressed by the ability of several regulars here to see trends and links events and/or see behind them - something that most often escapes me even for stuff I link here.
Lotp, is this a "gut feeling", or an informed guess based on what you see on the radar?

Posted by anonymous5089 2008-01-28 09:44|| 2008-01-28 09:44|| Front Page Top

#6 I don't think the DDG-67 (USS Cole) will be the last US ship hit. My assessment is the Iranians will try to sink one of ours soon, possibly with an imported Chicom 801 or silkworm.

The C.801 anti-ship cruise missile is a Chinese version of the popular French made EXOCET anti-ship cruise missile. Despite its somewhat larger size, the C.801 has about the same specifications and performance of the Exocet. Recent reports indicate the SARDINE has been upgraded with GPS navigation systems supplied by ROCKWELL.

Posted by Besoeker 2008-01-28 10:06|| 2008-01-28 10:06|| Front Page Top

#7 is this a "gut feeling", or an informed guess based on what you see on the radar?

Mostly an informed guess based on their previous actions plus this sort of public justification in the Iranian press. It's their habit to have flunkies call for and publicly justify attacks ahead of time.

Of course, sometimes that's just a bluff. But they've been arming and paying both Hezb'allah and reportedly Hamas for some time now. The breakout of Hamas into Egypt is serious and gives them a safe haven from which to launch human wave attacks on Israel. And note that the reason for the Lebanon protests parallels that of the Gaza breakout.

Posted by lotp 2008-01-28 10:21|| 2008-01-28 10:21|| Front Page Top

#8 Plus Sadr's getting fiesty again, thereby threatening to pin down up US attention and troops within Iraq. Add in the recent boat feint and the pattern isn't a good one.

Posted by lotp 2008-01-28 10:23|| 2008-01-28 10:23|| Front Page Top

#9 Will this "Tet" like attack take place before or after the new President is elected? Bush is considered a "lame duck" perhaps the militants feel he will not be able to retaliate, or they want to test the new person.

Posted by bman 2008-01-28 10:33|| 2008-01-28 10:33|| Front Page Top

#10 That's the big question, isn't it?

And the second big question is how far the mullahs will let Ahmadinejad go.

Posted by lotp 2008-01-28 10:46|| 2008-01-28 10:46|| Front Page Top

#11 The Tet like offensive will take place after the new president takes office. That is the time of least preparedness, and they should realize that Bush will not hesitate to react. But then, we are talking muzzies here, and logic has never been their strong suit.

Posted by wxjames 2008-01-28 11:21|| 2008-01-28 11:21|| Front Page Top

#12 I'm expecting a multi-front attack on Israel from Hamas, within Lebanon and on Israel by Hezb'allah and probably to coincide with something really provocative from Iran - nuclear test explosion, runs at ships in the Straits or terror attacks in Europe and US.

Ima agree that a pre-planed in-a-can multi-front attack on Israel is very likely lotp, but have you an idea as to when?

Posted by RD">RD 2008-01-28 13:13|| 2008-01-28 13:13|| Front Page Top

#13 first - Hamas isnt holding anything in Sinai, it looks like. Theyve probably used the cover of the civies buying food and stuff to get some more rocket materials in, and especially to get cash in, without which they will dissolve. Some AQ types may have made it into Sinai - I wouldnt go having a vacation at a Sinai resort anytime soon - but not enough for human wave attacks of any kind.

As for Leb riots being parallel, its really not. In Gaza Israel is using the cutoffs to counters a sustained rocket campaign - its a quasi war. In Beirut, it appears to just be the usual 3rd world problems keeping the lights on, which Hezb is using as an excuse to keep the shit stirred.

As for Iraq, I havent seen Muqty do anything since this announcement. I think hes trying to counter the steady attrition the coalition has been inflicting.

Look - from Gaza to Leb to Iraq to the Gulf, there are few places that Iran can do really major damage (well maybe Iraq, and the off chance they have long distance rockets in Gaza they havent used, or that they have agents in place in the west ready to do something on a 9/11 scale)

And the minute they do that, they shift the discourse on Iran in the US, and even to some extent in Europe. They shoot first, everybody to the right of Chomsky in the US will support shooting back - the debate would be over whats "proportionate". Pin prick response vs regime change. Or something in between.

And we'd probably have Sarko supporting us, for what thats worth ;)

Posted by Dopey Flotle8127 2008-01-28 13:36|| 2008-01-28 13:36|| Front Page Top

#14 I know it hasn't really made much difference in the past but the muslim holy months, when they are not supposed to fight the infidels, ends on the next crescent moon.

That gives the observant ones the go ahead to attack from Feb 8th until approx. 5th July when the next holy month starts.

Posted by Gladys 2008-01-28 15:27|| 2008-01-28 15:27|| Front Page Top

#15 DF8127, here's Elvis with a song for you:

When Moses walked the children out of Egypt land
Said now don't you worry, we're in the Lord's hands
He's gonna walk beside us, the time is comin' near
He's gonna wash away all our misery and our fear

I got a feelin' in my body
This will be our lucky day
We'll be releasing all our sorrow
Leave it layin' along the way

When Daniel faced the lion there wasn't any doubt
You got to be like Daniel and the Lord will help us out

I got a feelin' in my body
This will be our lucky day
We'll be releasing all our sorrow
Leave it layin' along the way ...

Posted by lotp 2008-01-28 15:35|| 2008-01-28 15:35|| Front Page Top

#16 im just telling it like I see it. If theres any part thats pollyanish, tell me.

Posted by Dopey Flotle8127 2008-01-28 16:33|| 2008-01-28 16:33|| Front Page Top

#17 Hey! The army's shooting back! They aren't supposed to do that!

Posted by Hassan Fadlallah 2008-01-28 16:57|| 2008-01-28 16:57|| Front Page Top

#18 DF, I apologize if I gave the impression that I thought you were pollyannish. Wasn't what I meant --I just like that Elvis song and thought is was sort-of applicable ... I certainly hope and regularly pray for Israel's protection.

Posted by lotp 2008-01-28 17:16|| 2008-01-28 17:16|| Front Page Top

#19 Don't forget the recent noises out of A'stan about Iranian support of the anti-government factions there. Gaza, Lebanon, Sadr's bluster, the Straits speedboat taunts, and A'stan. Iran is rattling its cage in all directions right now - even if all they mean to do is 'rattle', at some point something will go beyond that and all Hell will break loose.

Posted by Glenmore">Glenmore 2008-01-28 21:48|| 2008-01-28 21:48|| Front Page Top

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