[Jerusalem Post Middle East] This week, nine more Lebanese citizens were arraigned on charges of espionage and collaboration with Israel. This brings the total of people charged in connection with the alleged Israeli "spy ring" in Lebanon to 35. Around 100 people have now been arrested in connection with the investigation. Among those charged are a former general, two Lebanese Army colonels and an official of the ruling March 14 movement.
Reliable information in such matters is, of course, extremely difficult to obtain. The Israeli authorities remain silent. There is a growing sense, however, confirmed by conversations with a number of former senior Israeli officials, that there is likely to be at least some factual basis behind the allegations.
A number of simple facts may immediately be noted: Firstly, it is no secret that the Israeli security services - Military Intelligence, Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) and the Mossad - are active in information gathering in Lebanon.
Secondly, the Lebanese security service which has been responsible for carrying out the investigation is the ISF (Internal Security Forces) led by Gen. Ashraf Rifi. Rifi, a Sunni, is generally considered in Lebanon to be pro-March 14, and had personal links to murdered former prime minister Rafiq Hariri. The ISF has benefited from US patronage and has been built up and expanded by March 14, (just as its rival, the General Security Directorate (GSD), is seen as linked to the Hizbullah-led opposition.)
It has been suggested in some international media outlets that the emerging revelations are the result of an attempt by Hizbullah and its allies to divert attention from recent evidence of Hizbullah involvement in a terror cell uncovered in Egypt.
The fact that Ziad Homsi, a former March 14 mayor, was among those arrested was used to bolster this claim.
The available evidence suggests that some of the information leading to the arrests came from Hizbullah. The location of some of the alleged spies in the Hizbullah-dominated south of the country further suggests the movement's likely involvement in tracking and apprehending the suspects.
But the central role of the ISF and Rifi in the investigation would militate against the notion that the affair is a fictional production laid on by Hizbullah and the opposition in order to discredit March 14.
According to one Israeli source, the sheer volume of evidence produced, and in particular the visual evidence displayed, further leads to the conclusion that there is something more than mere electoral provocations behind the affair. The reported departure of a number of individuals suspected of espionage across the heavily defended Israeli-Lebanese border also backs up the allegations.
Rifi himself, without entering into detail, claims that an unidentified technical breakthrough began the process of uncovering the Israeli network. Certainly, the ISF has undergone a marked improvement in its equipment and capabilities over the last couple of years. This has derived from an extensive program of EU and US security assistance to Lebanon, intended to improve the performance of the county's security forces.
The pre-2005 ISF was a neglected, stunted, largely ignored force with little capacity for gathering information. Only in the last two years has it become an organization that could be imagined pulling off a major intelligence coup.
Israeli security officials raised the possibility after 2005 that US military assistance to Lebanon might end up being used against Israel to benefit the common enemies of Washington and Jerusalem. It is distinctly possible that this is exactly what has taken place.
Given the close links of the ISF and March 14, it is also conceivable that the timing of the revelations was connected to next week's elections - designed to enable March 14 to clothe itself in patriotic finery, and depict itself as no less of a "resistance" force against Israel than Hizbullah.
One Israeli analyst suggested that the evidence regarding Israeli espionage in Lebanon might eventually rival those of the 1950s Lavon Affair in their importance. This claim was probably hyperbole. What appears to be emerging in Lebanon looks like a more mundane - though important - story of the uncovering of an information-gathering ring. Such an occurrence is an accepted, though unfortunate, turn of events for those involved in such activities.
Some hints in the media point to a problem in demarcating areas of operation between Israeli organizations as a contributing factor. The inevitably murky nature of such matters - magnified by the divided and complex nature of Lebanon - make the drawing of any firm conclusions a risky enterprise. But it does appear that behind the smoke and mirrors of this latest Lebanese affair, a solid outline is beginning to emerge.
Jonathan Spyer is a senior researcher at the Global Research in International Affairs Center, IDC, Herzliya.
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[Iran Press TV Latest] Principlist hopeful Mohsen Rezaei says Iranians are at their wits end trying to deal with the many political and economic problems facing the country.
Rezaei, a former Iranian commander who is a senior member to the influential Expediency Council, said the Iranian nation "is fed up with the current circumstances in the country" and lack of governmental action on a host of internal and foreign issues.
He said the time has come for Iran to close ranks with regional countries in order to have a greater say in the developments that occur in the Middle East.
"With [former US president] George W. Bush and [Iraqi dictator] Saddam Hussein out of power, the grounds have been prepared to for Iran to get in on the act and forge bonds with regional countries," said Rezaei.
He criticized the Ahmadinejad government for "doing not nearly enough" to strengthen Iran's strategic position in the region.
"Unfortunately, the government's harsh rhetoric against regional countries which have given rise to tension and conflict in the Middle East," he said.
Iran's presidential elections will take place on June 12. It will be the tenth since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979 ended the reign of the country's pro-US monarch Mohammad Reza Pahlavi.
Mir-Hossein Mousavi, the last prime minister of Iran (1981-1989), and Mehdi Karroubi, two-time parliament (Majlis) speaker (1989-1992 and 2000-2004) have also announced their presidential bids.
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Posted by: Fred ||
06/04/2009 00:00 ||
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#2
Because the principlists are probably pissed that Ahmadinejad hasn't been serious enough about wiping Israel off the map? This is written vaguely enough that someone not paying attention might think that Rezaei is some sort of reformist or moderate, but that doesn't seem to be what "Principlism" means, does it?
Posted by: Mitch H. ||
06/04/2009 9:25 Comments ||
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[Al Arabiya Latest] A win for Hezbollah and its allies in a Lebanese parliamentary election is unlikely to lead to major changes in economic policy by the next government, whose hands will be tied by the state's hefty public debt.
Reducing the debt burden, one of the largest in the world, will be a central challenge, whatever the shape of the government that emerges from Sunday's election. Many expect a coalition cabinet similar to the outgoing administration.
"Reality is very constraining for any minister of finance," said Georges Corm, who held the post from 1998 to 2000.
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[ADN Kronos] The leader of the Jundullah militant group, Abdulmalik Rigi, has admitted receiving assistance from Iranian opposition group, Mojahedin e-Khalq or People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran, Iranian state media has claimed. Jundullah, a Sunni militant group, claimed responsibility for last week's bomb attack against a Shia mosque in the southeastern city of Zahedan, where at least 25 people died and 180 were injured.
"They (MKO) have had good intelligence collaboration with us and have provided us with much information about the activities of the Iranian regime," Rigi told US-based satellite TV station ABC News, according to Iran's Press TV.
"They inform us about the regime's activities in our areas of operations and let us know about the regime's forces and send us most of the intelligence of interest by email and messages."
Rigi also said the MKO currently had certain restrictions because they were based outside the country.
"We have treaties of friendship with all groups who act against Iran, and, among these, the MKO can do some things for us and we too can transit their members," Rigi said.
"But I guess that they have certain limitations and are in countries where they cannot carry out their intended actions the way they want."
However, the PMOI's secretariat on Thursday responded to Rigi's claims in the Iranian media via a statement on their website.
"This is not the first time that the clerical regime attributes various events to the PMOI in order to pave the way for increasing suppressive measures and executions," it said.
"In addition, as the regime's plots to annihilate Ashraf, home to members of the PMOI in Iraq, have failed, it is now trying to intensify pressure and suppressive measures against Ashraf by resorting to such lies."
The mosque attack took place on 28 May during a public holiday, when worshippers marked the death of Islam's Prophet Mohammed's daughter Fatima.
Zahedan is mainly Sunni Muslim and the remote province is one of the most deprived in Iran, which is largely a Shia country.
According to Iranian media, Jundullah has claimed responsibility for a dozen terrorist operations in Iran and the group's leader has escaped punishment as militants escape into neighbouring Pakistan after staging attacks inside Iran.
The MKO is listed as a terrorist organisation by Iran, Iraq, Canada, and the United States, but was recently removed from the list in the European Union.
Zahedan, the capital of Sistan-Baluchistan province, is 1,600 kilometres from the capital Tehran.
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[Jerusalem Post Middle East] Hizbullah's No. 2 leader, confident of victory in Lebanese weekend elections, said Tuesday the Iranian-backed group would invite its pro-Western opponents to join a national unity government if it wins.
Sheik Naim Kassem rejected accusations that a government of Hizbullah and its allies would try to implement an Iranian-style Islamic state. In an interview with The Associated Press, he shrugged off warnings about boycotts and insisted Western nations are willing to talk to the new government irrespective of who wins.
But the unity government proposal shows Shi'ite Hizbullah's concern that if it tries to govern Lebanon outright, it could risk international isolation and possibly another war with Israel, much like the Iranian-backed Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza.
Vice President Joe Biden, on a visit to Lebanon last month, warned Washington would reassess aid to Lebanon depending on the next government's makeup and policies. The US, which considers Hizbullah a terrorist organization, has provided about $1 billion in aid since 2006.
"After June 7, there will be a new scene," said Kassem, who leads Hizbullah's election campaign. He said Hizbullah and its allies "will work to form a national unity government. How much we will succeed is up to the other side."
He spoke Tuesday at a secret location in the Hizbullah stronghold of south Beirut. Out of security concerns, AP reporters were driven in a minivan with black-draped windows to an apartment building basement. There, they were transferred to another minivan with black-draped windows to block the view and driven to another building, where Kassem later showed up for the interview.
The vote for parliament pits Western-backed factions that have dominated the government for the last four years against a coalition led by Hizbullah and its ally, Christian leader Michel Aoun.
Hizbullah has had veto power over government decisions for the past year as part of a national unity government formed after its gunmen overran Beirut Muslim neighborhoods in May 2008, bringing Lebanon to the verge of another civil war.
So far, the election has been considered too close to call and the pro-Western coalition has also predicted victory. But if Kassem's predictions materialize, it would be the first time Hizbullah is positioned to play a major role in the formation of Lebanon's government.
Kassem predicted his alliance would pick up between three and six seats over the 64-seat margin to have an absolute majority in the 128-member legislature.
The country's sectarian-based division of power and complex alliances across sectarian divides make it hard for any single party to govern alone and without consensus. Under the system, Christians and Muslim equally share the Cabinet and the legislature. Lebanon's legislature has been sharply polarized between the two camps since 2005, paralyzing state operations. The majority currently has 70 seats and the minority, including Hizbullah, has 58.
Political turmoil and instability have buffeted the country since the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Hariri's supporters blamed the bombing on Syria. Damascus denied the accusations, but mass protests in Lebanon and US-led international pressure forced Syria's army out of Lebanon, ending 29 years of dominance.
Lebanon is still trying to chart its own direction after the Syrian pullout. The election of Hizbullah and its pro-Syrian allies would mark a resurgence of Syrian influence. That has raised US concerns, particularly because Washington considers the heavily armed Hizbullah with a long history of anti-Israeli activities a terrorist organization. The US has been at odds with Damascus over Lebanon, Iraq and the Palestinians.
Kassem predicted some factions from the pro-Western coalition would opt to join the new government. But one major faction has already said it won't.
He accused the US of last-minute attempts to influence the vote, but said they would not work. President Barack Obama is addressing Muslims in a speech from Cairo Thursday, days before the Lebanese election, in his latest overture to improve relations with the Islamic world.
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[Iran Press TV Latest] President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has accused the former Iranian president Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani of wishing the collapse of his government.
Ahmadinejad who held a televised debate with presidential hopeful Mir-Hossein Mousavi launched heavy attacks against Rafsanjani and Mohammad Khatami, Iran's former president.
"They tried to stand against the Iranian nation but people defeated them. During these four years [Ahmadinejad's term in office] they tried to pretend that the government is unsuccessful, but with God's and people's help we got to this point," Ahmadinejad said.
He claimed that after the previous presidential elections, his rival [hinting at Rafsanjani] was supported from "inside and outside" the country.
"In the early days of my government, Mr. Rafsanjani sent a message to a king of a Persian Gulf state and told him that don't worry, this government will collapse within six months," he added. "Such remarks clearly show that there have been massive plots underway against this government," Ahmadinejad said.
Iran's incumbent president also accused the three other presidential hopefuls--Mohsen Rezaei, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mousavi-- of trying to downplay his government's achievements.
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A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
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Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
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Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
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