JONATHAN SPYER
[Jerusalem Post Middle East] It is now clear that the pro-Western March 14 alliance has won an unexpected victory in parliamentary elections in Lebanon, and senior sources in the Hizbullah-led March 8 bloc have conceded defeat in statements to Western reporters.
Contrary to most forecasts, the vote appears to have produced a legislature very similar in representation to the one that preceded it.
March 14 is thought to have won 69 or 70 seats in the 128-member parliament. If one adds the one or two independent, pro-March 14 MPs to the total, the movement now controls around 71 seats. In the outgoing parliament, they controlled 70.
What were the factors that led to March 8/Hizbullah being upset, and what implications do the results have for stability in Lebanon and for Israel?
Most importantly, the results represent a defeat for the party of former general Michel Aoun. Aoun's Free Democratic Party is the Christian element in the Hizbullah-led March 8 bloc. Aoun, who once led an anti-Syrian rebellion, is now a firm member of the pro-Syrian alliance in Lebanon.
The focus in these elections was the Christian community, because the allegiances of the Druse, Sunni and Shi'ite Lebanese were clear and predictable. The Sunnis and Druse overwhelmingly backed the pro-Western March 14, while the Shi'ites - their loyalties divided between Hizbullah and the pro-Syrian Amal movement, were almost exclusively aligned with March 8. As a result, around 100 of the 128 seats in parliament were effectively allocated in advance.
The Christians, however, were divided. Aoun expected that his personal standing and his strong showing in 2005 would allow his party to sweep the board in Christian areas. The pro-March 14 Christians - the Lebanese Forces Party of Dr. Samir Geagea and the Phalange - were widely disregarded.
Though the emergence of a number of "independent" Christian candidates in the weeks prior to the elections had led to rumors of a possible upset, it appears that the Christians affiliated with March 14 performed surprisingly well, though without entirely eclipsing Aoun.
March 14 swept the board in the symbolically important Beirut 1 District, which contains five seats. March 14 also won the seats of Batroun (where a Lebanese Forces candidate unseated Michel Aoun's son-in-law) Koura, Bsharreh and Tripoli.
Why did so many Christian Lebanese turn against Aoun and March 8?
Many Lebanese analysts consider that fears in the community over the consequences of a drift further toward the Iranian and Syrian regional bloc played an important part. In this regard, the events of May 2008, when Hizbullah sent its forces onto the streets of Beirut, were seen as playing a role.
A recent speech by Hassan Nasrallah, in which he described those May events as a "glorious day" for the "resistance" and warned March 14 against any future interference with Hizbullah's independent military infrastructure, may well have helped to concentrate Christian minds regarding the danger represented by Hizbullah.
Some have also suggested that the memory of the destructive 2006 war with Israel, sparked by a Hizbullah kidnapping of IDF soldiers and shelling of Israeli communities in the North, also played its part.
The election results mean that March 14 will be the dominant factor in the governing coalition which will now be formed. However, the opposition will also be represented in the new government. Negotiations over the make-up and nature of the coalition are likely to be protracted.
Lebanese analysts are pointing to the issue of the opposition's demand for a "blocking third" of cabinet seats as a possible source of strife.
The veto was granted to Hizbullah and its allies in the Doha negotiations which followed the May fighting last year. However, March 14 leader Sa'ad Hariri has said that he is not interested in renewing the veto arrangement.
This is likely to prove a central issue in negotiations. Given Hizbullah's and its allies' and patrons' proven capacity for using violence to reinforce their arguments, the potential for further strife remains real.
It is important to remember that while the averting of an electoral victory for the pro-Iranian, pro-Syrian bloc is significant, it has no bearing on the wider issue of Hizbullah's possession of an independent military capacity, and its consequent ability to pursue an independent foreign and military policy.
Hizbullah would certainly have preferred the March 8 bloc it leads to have performed better. But the movement itself fielded only 11 candidates. Beyond this, it was content to concede the Shi'ite representation to the allied Amal movement.
For Hizbullah and its Iranian patron, the key interest at present is the rebuilding and expansion of its independent military capacity, and the shadow state which has emerged around it.
Hizbullah successfully defended the borders of this shadow state from internal interference in May 2008. Iran invested heavily in repairing it after the war of 2006, and its guns remain pointed at Israel.
So amid the justified relief at the setback suffered by the pro-Iranian bloc in the vote, it should be borne in mind that the results represent a continuation of the problematic preelection reality, rather than any major transformation.
The writer is a senior researcher at the Global Research in International Affairs Center, IDC, Herzliya. Continued on Page 47
Posted by: Fred ||
06/09/2009 00:00 ||
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[Beirut Daily Star: Region] A 2005 claim by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that a "light" surrounded him during a UN address was mocked Monday by his main pro-reform opponents in the latest barrage against the Iranian president's competence and another sign of the bitter tone dominating the poll campaign in its final days.
Ahmadinejad and his main challenger, Mir Hossein Mousavi, have traded recriminations and engaged in mudslinging that has broken political taboos in Iran, reflecting the huge stakes in Friday's vote.
Reformists - sensing that Ahmadinejad's once-formidable lead has evaporated - have increased their attacks seeking to portray him as erratic and eccentric. Ahmadinejad has struck back with accusations that Mousavi, who served as prime minister in the 1980s, is part of a clique of corrupt leaders who put their own interests ahead of the country.
The current reformist salvo is a video clip sent by e-mail and on CDs of Ahmadinejad telling a top cleric, Ayatollah Abdollah Javadi Amoli, that a "light" enveloped him during his address to the UN General Assembly in 2005 and that the crowd stared without blinking during the entire speech.
"A member of the [Iranian] delegation told me, 'I saw a light that surrounded you,"' Ahmadinejad said. "I sensed it myself too ... I felt the atmosphere changed. All leaders in audience didn't blink for 27, 28 minutes. I'm not exaggerating when I'm saying they didn't blink. Everybody had been astonished ... they had opened their eyes and ears to see what is the message from the Islamic Republic."
The clip was released after Ahmadinejad on Saturday denied making the comment.
Mousavi's daily newspaper, Kalemeh Sabz, or Green Word, said in a front-page report that Amoli's office confirmed the video is authentic. The headline called it Ahmadinejad's "halo." Amoli could not be reached to verify the account in the Mousavi paper.
Mousavi accused Ahmadinejad of being "superstitious" and "brazenly staring at the camera and telling lies to the nation." On Saturday, Ahmadinejad said inflation stood at 15 percent, but Mousavi showed a report released by the Central Bank of Iran indicating it stood at 25 percent. "Why do we lie to people? Why do we give people wrong information? Is this to the country's benefit? Is gaining the presidential chair worth lying to people this blatantly?" Mousavi said on Sunday.
Reformists, who promise to ease social and political restrictions at home and seek better ties with the West, appear to be gaining ground on Ahmadinejad, who has become increasingly unpopular because of Iran's economic woes. Critics also say that he has needlessly enflamed world anger at Iran with his statements calling UN resolutions "worthless papers" and casting doubt on the Holocaust.
There are two other candidates in the race. Former Parliament Speaker Mahdi Karroubi, who is considered a moderate, could siphon some votes from Mousavi. Mohsen Rezaei, a former commander of the powerful Revolutionary Guard, threatens to undercut Ahmadinejad's conservative base.
Ahmadinejad's comments also have become the source of political satire that takes aim at his pious reputation among his supporters. "Have you seen a halo in your addresses?" former vice president, Mohammad Ali Abtahi, asked Karroubi during a documentary shown on state TV last week.
"Only certain people can see that. I don't have this spiritual status," Karroubi replied.
The head of the country's electoral committee said on Monday that Iran expects a record number of voters to cast their ballots in this week's presidential polls. "Definitely, the election ... will witness a record-breaking turnout," Kamran Daneshjoo told reporters.
Daneshjoo said the Interior Ministry, which is in charge of organizing the election, is putting in place a strategy to ensure "maximum participation" from the 46.2 million eligible voters. "Iranian people have shown their support of the revolution in different rallies, but on election day we will see the actual number of people who back their revolution," he said.
He predicted turnout would be high "despite the propaganda of the arrogant nations who are undermining the election."
Polls will open Friday at 8:00 a.m. and close 10 hours later, unless turnout is exceptionally high and provincial governors secure ministry approval for an extension of voting hours.
If a clear winner does not emerge on June 12, the election will go to a second-round runoff on June 19. To win outright in the first round, a candidate must secure 50 percent of the votes cast plus one vote.
Continued on Page 47
Posted by: ||
06/09/2009 00:00 ||
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#1
Is that a Star of David inside the halo?
Posted by: Jack is Back! ||
06/09/2009 10:16 Comments ||
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#2
I believe that is a EOTech sight reticule.
Posted by: ed ||
06/09/2009 10:29 Comments ||
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#3
Reticle. Damn spellchecker.
Posted by: ed ||
06/09/2009 10:32 Comments ||
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#4
"a candidate must secure 50 percent of the votes cast plus one vote"
That of Ali Khamenei
Posted by: European Conservative ||
06/09/2009 18:38 Comments ||
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#6
Lest we fergit, PAKISTANI DEFENCE FORUM > IRAN > BAHRAIN IS IRANIAN TERRITORY/IRAN'S 14th PROVINCE; + US COL. JOHN NAGL = US WAR AGZ AL-QAEDA + TALIBAN N AFGHANISTAN, PAKISTAN MAY BE LOST BY END OF SUMMER 2009 UNLESS US MAKES DIRECT OR IMMEDIATE CHANGES IN ITS COUNTER-INSURGENCY STRATEGIES.
* PAKISTANI DEFENCE FORUM > US, NATO COULD PAY A HEAVY PRICE IN AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN [POTUS Bammer's = US foreign policies in AFPAK may NOT be enuff at this time to ensure VICTORY OR EVEN CONTAINMENT VEE ISLAMIST MILTERR THREAT].
IOW, POTUS BAMMER = USA MUST "SPEND, SPEND, SPEND" + "BUILD, BUILD, BUILD"......ETC. "HERE, FAR, WHEREVER THEY ARE ["Titanic" Theme lyric]???
* ALso, IIRC STARS-N-STRIPES > sems USMC MilPresence in AFGANISTAN COULD "SURGE" TO AS HIGH AS 68,000???
#7
OOOOOPSIES, forgot SAME > ARTIC > indics that MANY MIDDLE EAST "MODERATE" MUSLIM NATIONS-GOVTS are seriously concerned that IRAN'S INFLUENCE = "OUTREACH" [pro-SHIITE Iranian influens] GOES FAR BEYOND LEBANON + THE PALESTINIAN ISSUE in GAZA-WB, and EXCLUSIVE OF IRAN-DESIRED NUCLEARIZATION ["means to a greater/bigger end"]???
WEHELL, NOT EXACTLY PRO-CUPID, "LOVE POTION NO.9" INTERNET SINGLES DATING SPONSORSHIP, NOW IS IT???
[Iran Press TV Latest] Iran's Judiciary chief Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi-Shahroudi says presidential candidates should refrain from leveling accusations against their rivals on national television.
"Leveling accusations against natural persons on national television is a crime, which can provoke legal action," said Ayatollah Shahroudi Monday.
His remarks came after certain candidates resorted to leveling accusations against one another ahead of the June 12 polls.
Iran's tenth presidential election sees a fierce competition between the incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and a team of heavyweight politicians.
Former prime minister Mir-Hossein Moussavi, two-time former Majlis Speaker Mehdi Karroubi and Secretary of Iran's Expediency Council Mohsen Rezaei are challenging the president.
Continued on Page 47
Posted by: Fred ||
06/09/2009 00:00 ||
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[Beirut Daily Star: Region] The young Iranians cruising noisily around upscale northern Tehran in cars plastered with election posters have only one thing on their minds: denying President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad a second term. Millions of reform-minded Iranians stayed away from the polls in 2005, disillusioned by how hardliners had stymied former President Mohammad Khatami's liberal initiatives.
Ahmadinejad's political fate may well hang on how many of those jaded voters turn out on June 12 - if only to thwart him.
"I will vote, but only because I want to see anyone but Ahmadinejad win. He has ruined the country," said Mina Sedaqati, a 25-year-old sociology student at Tehran University, over coffee and doughnuts with friends in northern Tehran.
Continued on Page 47
Posted by: Fred ||
06/09/2009 00:00 ||
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#1
upscale northern Tehran
Meh. Get out into the rural areas; that's where the 'deciding' factor is.
[Al Arabiya Latest] Hezbollah's chief Hassan Nasrallah on Monday acknowledged the defeat of his opposition alliance by a pro-Western coaltion in Lebanon's parliamentary elections as Western powers welcomed the news of the March 14 win. "We accept the official results in a sporting spirit," he said in a televised address a day after Lebanese turned out in masses to vote in the crucial elections.
Nasrallah denied claims that his Shiite resistance group would use violence to force a win but stressed that the group's weapons and artillery were not up for discussion by the new parliament.
Nasrallah, appearing graceful in defeat, also congratulated his political rivals. "I would like to congratulate all those who won, those in the majority and those in the opposition," he said.
"We accept the fact that the competition won a majority while the opposition retained its presence in parliament," Nasrallah said.
Analysts and newspapers questioned whether rival factions would be able to form a unity government and ensure the nation, plagued for years by political and sectarian turmoil, is not plunged into renewed violence.
Some analysts expected lengthy horse-trading between and within rival blocs before the next cabinet is formed.
Saad Hariri, head of the March 14 camp, has previously said the opposition could join a unity government, but without the veto power it has demanded in the past--and achieved under a Qatari-mediated deal that followed an armed showdown in the streets of Beirut in May 2008.
Continued on Page 47
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#1
TOPIX > ANALYSIS: HIZBULLAH MAY LOSE THE ELECTION BUT WILL STILL RULE LEBANON.
[Jerusalem Post Middle East] Hizbullah failed to win Lebanon's elections on Sunday largely because of widespread dissatisfaction among the Lebanese people over the Second Lebanon War, a defense source said on Monday.
"For the entire time since the end of the war [in August 2006], Hizbullah said the conflict strengthened it, since it was the only one to stand up against Israel. These elections prove that the Lebanese didn't buy that claim," the source said.
"The bottom line is Hizbullah was punished for the war," he added.
Lebanese citizens were highly aware of the economic costs and other damage incurred to Lebanon by the conflict, the source said. "Lebanon said 'no' to Iran. The elections results are bad news for Syria, too. These parties paid a price for past aggressions," the source continued.
This idea was echoed by Labor MK Amir Peretz, who was defense minister during the war. Peretz said Monday the election results proved the Lebanese people realized that aiding Hizbullah was not in their best interests. "As time passes, the success of Israel's strategy in the war in advancing Israel's interest becomes clearer," Peretz said.
Rejecting fears that Hizbullah was more likely to attack Israel following an elections defeat, the defense source said Hizbullah would likely be accused of "trying to topple an elected government" if it now pursued conflict with Israel.
The elections in Lebanon could also have a knock-on effect in Gaza, where Hamas's popularity is dropping with Gazans dissatisfied with the current situation, the source argued. "Hamas may now be thinking, look what happened in Lebanon. If we go for another democratic process in Gaza, we may not receive the support we had before," he said.
Continued on Page 47
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[Iran Press TV Latest] Hezbollah has warned its rivals that their victory in the elections does not legitimize the disarmament of the resistance movement. "The majority must commit not to question our role as a resistance party, the legitimacy of our weapons arsenal and the fact that Israel is an enemy state," AFP quoted Hezbollah official Mohamed Raad as saying on Monday.
Lebanon's ruling pro-Western coalition declared victory with 71 seats after an election face-off with the Hezbollah-led bloc, which has won 57 seats in the 128-seat house.
The issue of whether Hezbollah should remain armed has long been high on the agenda of political debates sought by the pro-Western coalition in Lebanon.
The Hezbollah movement argues that its arms help deter possible Israeli attacks on the country and has agreed to discuss the issue with critics within the framework of a national unity government.
Israel sought to bring Hezbollah military power to an end during the 33-day war against Lebanon in the summer of 2006 but was unsuccessful.
Israeli Transport Minister Yisrael Katz was among the top officials to comment on the issue after the elections in Lebanon. He told public radio that Hezbollah should be disarmed after "the defeat of its alliance in Lebanon's election... We must now move to disarm Hezbollah in accordance with agreements made in the past".
On the issue, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said, "The victory of the moderate camp in Lebanon is a positive sign, but we ought to see how the new government conducts itself, and in accordance with this we will decide what our position will be."
Continued on Page 47
#1
"The majority must commit not to question our role as a resistance party, the legitimacy of our weapons arsenal and the fact that Israel is an enemy state," AFP quoted Hezbollah official Mohamed Raad
"My wives, sure. My goat, maybe. My Resistance, my AK, and those damn dirty Juice, NEVER!!!!"
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Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
[Beirut Daily Star: Region] A 2005 claim by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that a "light" surrounded him during a UN address was mocked Monday by his main pro-reform opponents in the latest barrage against the Iranian president's competence and another sign of the bitter tone dominating the poll campaign in its final days.
[Al Arabiya Latest] Hezbollah's chief Hassan Nasrallah on Monday acknowledged the defeat of his opposition alliance by a pro-Western coaltion in Lebanon's parliamentary elections as Western powers welcomed the news of the March 14 win. "We accept the official results in a sporting spirit," he said in a televised address a day after Lebanese turned out in masses to vote in the crucial elections.
[Iran Press TV Latest] Hezbollah has warned its rivals that their victory in the elections does not legitimize the disarmament of the resistance movement. "The majority must commit not to question our role as a resistance party, the legitimacy of our weapons arsenal and the fact that Israel is an enemy state," AFP quoted Hezbollah official Mohamed Raad as saying on Monday.
