The news that Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has ordered an investigation into charges of voter fraud in his country's presidential elections has been greeted with skepticism by many in the West. After all, it was Ayatullah Khamenei, who holds the ultimate authority in the theocratic nation, who rushed to embrace incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as the victor long before the ballots were counted. But his order to the Guardian Council, the powerful watchdog of the Iranian constitution, to start an investigation may not be as cynical as it appears.
Of course, there is political calculation to Khamenei's investigation. It neutralizes the main demand around which the opposition is rallying on the streets and imposes a de facto 10-day cooling-off period that could sap, even demoralize, the anti-Ahamdinejad demonstrations. The huge rally in support of Mir-Hossein Mousavi in Tehran on Monday (estimated by a TIME reporter at the scene at 200,000) is enough to make any ruler, autocrat or not, tremble. The night before, for the first time, the shouts against Ahmadinejad included a few hesitant but yet brave chants of "Marq bar Khamenei," or "Down with Khamenei." It has always been terrifyingly taboo to say anything at all that denigrates the Supreme Leader, successor to the Ayatullah Khomeini. But now it has started - and it may help open the Supreme Leader's window of vulnerability to one very powerful enemy.
As much as some Iranian conservatives may wish otherwise, the Islamic republic has never been able to seal tight state rule over society: it is a sloppy authoritarian state with elements of democracy. Iranian democracy may not be recognizably Western, but its dynamic seeps into the highest echelons of power, even if it is embodied in an instinct for consensus among a clerical Élite with diverse opinions. It is a dynamic that even Khamenei has to answer to.
Apart from the Iranian electorate, Khamenei has a couple of very important constituencies to deal with. Indeed, while most people describe Khamenei as the unelected leader of Iran, he was chosen by a small but critical institution, the Assembly of Experts. He must also deal with the Guardian Council, which is equally small but also influential - and must certify the election results. Some pundits are now arguing that the Assembly of Experts could find constitutional means to remove Iran's Supreme Leader and that a refusal by the Guardian Council to validate the election could throw the country into further crisis.
The main impetus for this speculation is the influence in both groups of Ayatullah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the last surviving powerful member of the revolution's founding fathers. Rafsanjani was a very loud critic of Ahmadinejad, and thus indirectly of the President's patron, the Supreme Leader. Since 2007, Rafsanjani has been the chairman of the Assembly of Experts, which has the power to call for Khamenei's ouster. He is also the chairman of an important advisory body that has dealings with the Guardian Council. Throwing the investigation into the hands of the council may be an attempt by Khamenei to buy more time to build consensus about what to do next - and to restore the uneasy equilibrium between himself and Rafsanjani.
Before the June 12 vote, Rafsanjani and Khamenei were involved in a public spat over Ahmadinejad, with Rafsanjani wanting the Supreme Leader to censure the President for what he described as slanderous remarks. Khamenei refused. Ahmadinejad's followers continue to see Rafsanjani (also a former President) as the enemy. At Ahmadinejad's celebratory rally on Sunday, almost all chants were directed against Rafsanjani. He is seen as the big threat; there is even speculation that Rafsanjani may see himself as the next Supreme Leader, which would be disastrous for the President.
Remember, Rafsanjani believes it acceptable to nuke Israel even if Iran would be destroyed in return ...
Political scientists in Iran are skeptical that Rafsanjani would make a move to oust Khamenei. But there is intense internal maneuvering going on right now in the hallways of power, invisible to the massive demonstrations in the streets of Iran's big cities, which in turn feed the backroom dealings. For while it is still unlikely that Rafsanjani will make the unprecedented move to remove the Supreme Leader, the more chaotic Iran gets, the more it allows Rafsanjani to find some lever to pull or to do something dramatic. It is in Khamenei's interest, then, to cool down the demonstrations.
In 1979, everyone wanted the Shah to fall, but no one believed that is was thinkable. Then, suddenly, it became so. The 1979 Revolution, once in motion, took months to play out. Even to those within it, none knew what was exactly happening, how long it would take or whether there would be a successful conclusion. The same applies to the situation now.
Continued on Page 47
Posted by: Steve White ||
06/15/2009 17:16 ||
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Gunfire from a pro-government militia killed one man and wounded several others Monday after hundreds of thousands of chanting opponents of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad marched in central Tehran, supporting their pro-reform leader in his first public appearance since disputed elections. Security forces watched quietly, with shields and batons at their sides.
The outpouring in Azadi, or Freedom, Square for reformist leader Mir Hossein Mousavi followed a decision by Iran's most powerful figure for an sham investigation into the vote-rigging allegations.
Later, a group of demonstrators with fuel canisters set a small fire at a compound of a volunteer militia linked to Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guard as the crowd dispersed from the square. As some tried to storm the building, people on the roof could be seen firing directly at the demonstrators at the northern edge of the square, away from the heart of the rally.
An Associated Press photographer saw one person fatally shot and several others who appeared to be seriously wounded.
Witnesses told The Associated Press that protests and some violence had broken out in several cities across Iran, including some traditionally seen as more conservative.
The United States was "deeply troubled" by reports of violence and arrests in Iran, State Department spokesman Ian Kelly said, but he added that the U.S. knows too little about the conduct of the election to say for sure whether there was fraud.
Gee, Mr. Kelly, what do you think?
The chanting demonstrators had defied an Interior Ministry ban and streamed into central Tehran - an outpouring for reformist leader Mir Hossein Mousavi that swelled as more poured from buildings and side streets. The chanting crowd - many wearing the trademark green color of Mousavi's campaign - was more than five miles long, and based on previous demonstrations in the square and surrounding streets, its size was estimated to be in the hundreds of thousands.
For the bulk of the day, the riot police and soldiers lining the protest were peaceful, reports CBS News correspondent Elizabeth Palmer from Tehran.
"I am ready to pay any price to materialize the ideals of you dear people," he said, speaking though a portable loudspeaker. "People feel their wisdom has been insulted. We have to pursue legal channels to regain our trampled rights and stop this last lie, and stand up to fraud and this astonishing charade."
Mousavi, wearing a gray striped shirt, said his solution was "canceling the result of this disputed election. This will have the least cost for our nation. Otherwise, nothing will remain of people's trust in the government and ruling system."
The crowd roared back: "Long live Mousavi."
According to a Twitter account bearing Mousavi's name, the opposition leader declared he was ready to stand in another election.
"This is not election. This is selection," read one English-language placard at the demonstration. Other marchers held signs proclaiming "We want our vote!" and raising their fingers in a V-for-victory salute.
"We want our president, not the one who was forced on us," said 28-year-old Sara, who gave only her first name because of fears of reprisals from authorities.
Hours earlier, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei directed one of Iran's most influential bodies, the Guardian Council, to examine the claims. But the move by Khamenei - who had earlier welcomed the election results - had no guarantee it would satisfy those challenging Ahmadinejad's re-election or quell days of rioting after Friday's election that left parts of Tehran scarred by flames and shattered store fronts.
The 12-member Guardian Council, made up of clerics and experts in Islamic law and closely allied to Khamenei, must certify election results and has the apparent authority to nullify an election. But it would be an unprecedented step. Claims of voting irregularities went before the council after Ahmadinejad's upset victory in 2005, but there was no official word on the outcome of the investigation and the vote stood.
More likely, the dramatic intervention by Khamenei could be an attempt to buy time in hopes of reducing the anti-Ahmadinejad anger. The prospect of spiraling protests and clashes is the ultimate nightmare for the Islamic establishment, which could be forced into back-and-forth confrontations and risks having the dissidents move past the elected officials and directly target the ruling theocracy.
The display of opposition unity Monday suggested a possible shift in tactics by authorities after cracking down hard during days of rioting. Although any rallies were outlawed earlier, security forces were not ordered to move against the sea of protesters - allowing them to vent their frustration and wave the green banners and ribbons of the symbolic color of Mousavi's movement.
State TV quoted Khamenei as ordering the Guardian Council to "carefully probe" the allegations of fraud, which were contained in a letter Mousavi submitted Sunday.
On Saturday, however, Khamenei urged the nation to unite behind Ahmadinejad and called the result a "divine assessment."
Palmer reports that Mousavi hadn't been seen in public since election day. He has been under house arrest and several other prominent opposition figures have been taken into custody.
The Iranian regime has cracked down on the flow information inside the country, blocking most social networking sites, many phone lines and Internet services. Foreign journalists have been urged to leave the country, reports Palmer.
Mousavi and his supporters have shown no sign of backing down against an expanding security clampdown - bringing their outrage to the streets for the third straight day over claims that Ahmadinejad stole last week's election with vote rigging and fraud.
Ahmadinejad claims to have won by a landslide - with more than 60 percent of the vote. The results came as a surprise to many Iranians and external observers who watched days of raucous street rallies by Mousavi's mostly young supporters in the days before the vote.
Palmer reported that as those supporters learned from state media on Friday night, just hours after voting, that Ahmadinejad had won, their frustration boiled over into angry street protests. More than 100 were arrested as protesters clashed in the streets with police, who fought back with tear gas, rubber bullets and batons.
Ahmadinejad dismissed the demonstrations as "not important from my point of view" and likened it to the intensity after a soccer game. "Some believed they would win, and then they got angry," he said at a news conference on Sunday. "It has no legal credibility. It is like the passions after a soccer match. ... The margin between my votes and the others is too much and no one can question it."
"In Iran, the election was a real and free one," he told a room packed with Iranian and foreign media.
Ahmadinejad was scheduled to attend a regional summit in Russia Monday, but the visit was canceled at the last minute. The Iranian Embassy in Moscow said the president's visit had been postponed and could not say whether it would be rescheduled.
Mohsen Mirdamadi, an opposition strategist, was one of several people arrested during the weekend rioting, reported Palmer who had to hide in a shop with her cameraman during the protests to avoid beating and possible arrest at the hands of the police. Four days ago, Mirdamadi told CBS News there would be trouble if Mousavi lost.
"The main problem is that the people can't accept this is a real result," he told Palmer. "They won't believe it."
The re-election of Iran's hard-line president, meanwhile, signaled an increasingly difficult road ahead for President Obama's hopes for ending Tehran's nuclear threat.
The accusations also have brought growing international concern. On Sunday, Vice President Joe Biden raised questions about whether the vote reflected the wishes of the Iranian people.
Britain and Germany joined the calls of alarm over the rising confrontations in Iran. In Paris, the Foreign Ministry summoned the Iranian ambassador to discuss the allegations of vote tampering and the violence.
Overnight, police and hard-line militia stormed the campus at the city's biggest university, ransacking dormitories and arresting dozens of students angry over what they say was mass election fraud. The nighttime gathering of about 3,000 students at dormitories of Tehran University started with students chanting "Death to the dictator," but it quickly erupted into clashes as students threw rocks and Molotov cocktails at the police, who fought back with tear gas and plastic bullets, said a 25-year-old student at the university who witnessed the fighting. He would only give one name, Akbar, out of fears for his safety.
The students set a truck and other vehicles on fire and hurled stones and bricks at the police, he said. Hard-line militia volunteers loyal to the Revolutionary Guard stormed the dormitories, ransacking student rooms and smashing computers and furniture with axes and wooden sticks, Akbar said.
Before leaving around 4 a.m., the police took away memory cards and computer software material, Akbar said, adding that dozens of students were arrested.
He said many students suffered bruises, cuts and broken bones in the scuffling and that there was still smoldering garbage on the campus by midmorning but that the situation had calmed down. "Many students are now leaving to go home to their families, they are scared," he said. "But others are staying. The police and militia say they will be back and arrest any students they see."
"I want to stay because they beat us and we won't retreat," he added.
One of Mousavi's Web sites, said a student protester was killed early Monday during clashes with plainclothes hard-liners in Shiraz, southern Iran. But there was no independent confirmation of the report. There also have been unconfirmed reports of unrest breaking out in other cities across Iran.
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Posted by: Steve White ||
06/15/2009 17:09 ||
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NYT blog
"Update | 5:10 p.m. A reader named Farzad writes to say:
I was on the streets of Mashhad city today. Security forces and riot police had been dispatched to every corner of the city. All shopping stores, supermarkets were ordered to close before 8:00 PM. Police did not let even two individuals to walk or talk together and asking people not to be on the streets and go home, otherwise would be arrested.Some parts of the city were in complete blackout but many people were simultaneously shouting God is great from rooftops, a slogan showing that people are united and determined to take action against those who had stolen their votes."
Posted by: liberal hawk ||
06/15/2009 19:06 Comments ||
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#2
it's cool. They had to unclench their fist to shoot
Posted by: Frank G ||
06/15/2009 19:49 Comments ||
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It shall be interesting to see Big Zero attempt to explain the meaning of "unconditional" ala Bill Clinton and "is"....
#4
our very own Dear Leader has just announced (NO KIDDING) that:
"the United States has no way of knowing whether the results are valid, as we had no election monitors in the country"
Well darn it, Iranians, I guess this time we just gotta take your gummint's word for it. Sorry :(
"From revolution to freedom" -- that was the message that spread among supporters of Iranian opposition leader Mir-Hossein Mousavi today. The phrase refers to the two main squares in midtown Tehran, where a large demonstration took place to protest what millions of Iranians believe was a rigged presidential election. And although the Interior Ministry kept broadcasting a communiqué warning that no permit had been issued for the rally, 2 million to 3 million Iranians from a broad cross section of society converged on Freedom Square to demand a recount.
"Until you return my vote, I won't be going home tonight" was one of the chants at the demonstration, which was organized on the Internet and by word of mouth. While the police and special security forces have dealt harshly with demonstrators over the past few days, today's rally was held peacefully with an almost total absence of any crowd-control forces, at least until dark. After sunset, there were reports of government militia firing on demonstrators, purportedly killing at least one.
The size of the demonstration today came as a surprise. After the first day of heavy rioting and street clashes on Saturday, Sunday saw relative calm as special forces officers took up positions on main streets and squares by the hundreds, breaking up any sizable gathering immediately, leading to assumptions that the protests were dealt and done with.
But many people participating in the rally Monday said the scale of it was understandable. "Of course people would show up en masse. They know who they voted for," said 44-year-old Ahmad, who pulled out his wallet to show an ID to prove that he was a war veteran. "I was on the war front for eight years. This is not what we had a revolution for, so that they would lie to us."
All three opposition candidates attended the rally, though only Mousavi spoke. Difficult to hear above the noise of the crowd, Mousavi said the size of the demonstration made it clear that the election had been rigged.
Although the Supreme Leader Ayatullah Ali Khamenei initially congratulated incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on his re-election and called the elections a "divine assessment," he took a surprising step Monday by asking the Guardian Council to investigate Mousavi's allegations "with precision," and called on Mousavi to follow existing concerns through "legal means." The move, an attempt to assuage concerns over the alleged fraud, was unprecedented.
Ahmadinejad, who won re-election with two-thirds of the vote according to the Interior Ministry, held a large rally on Sunday in one of the town's main squares. Speaking to a sea of supporters waving green flags -- in what appeared to be an appropriation of the color used by Mousavi -- Ahmadinejad compared the elections to a football game and said those in the streets did not represent a majority of Iranians but were people upset at having lost the game, referring to them as "weeds and dirt."
While Ahmadinejad's supporters hailed from a variety of backgrounds, the majority were visibly conservative and included large numbers of basiji paramilitary members, many of whom had driven into Tehran on their motorbikes from surrounding towns and cities to help the special forces control street clashes. Many wielded sticks and chains, and still others were outfitted with what seemed to be police shields, helmets and batons.
At the rally Monday, Mousavi supporters referred to the President's speech derisively, chanting, "Ahmadi, just keep saying it's a game of football." Marching past a Revolutionary Guard station full of uniformed men in position, the demonstrators chanted, "We are no weeds and dirt. We are the people of Iran."
One demonstrator looked to the guy by his side and yelled, "That drove me crazy. When he said that yesterday, calling the protesters weeds and dirt." A 26-year-old mechanic from Hashemiye, in the south of Tehran, said he had left his garage to come to the protest.
As a helicopter hovered overhead, the chants grew louder and arms were raised in the air: "This 63% that they say -- where is it?"
But while the demonstrations show broad discontent with perceived fraud, there are also many who believe Ahmadinejad actually won those votes. "Ahmadinejad is a man of the people. He dresses like them, talks like them, and isn't resented for having too much money," said Massoud, a 31-year-old supporter at the President's rally Sunday. "Those TV debates, in which he, for the first time, broke the taboo on old-guard revolutionaries stealing the people's money won him at least another 5 million votes."
Those charging election fraud base their claim on several main arguments. They say the results were released too quickly and were given out as a single number rather than broken down by province, as in previous elections. They also charge that some numbers simply don't make sense, such as Ahmadinejad's higher count in Mousavi's hometown of Tabriz and the other moderate challenger Mehdi Karroubi's less than 1% vote count, despite his relative popularity among ethnic Lors, Kurds and Sufis, as well as women's and students' rights activists.
People who believe in the veracity of the numbers say it is possible to get those election results fairly quickly because each polling booth could count its own votes in a matter of a few hours. As to the other charges, they chime in with the President, who said at a press conference yesterday that those who had lost were just upset because the elections did not turn out as expected.
But Mousavi supporters are incredulous. "They have stolen our vote, and now they're showing off with it," went one of the main chants at the rally Monday. After the demonstrations, loud cries of "Allahu akbar" could be heard from rooftops and windows until late into the night.
Now the Guardian Council has invited Mousavi as well as Karroubi to a meeting Tuesday to discuss their concerns. The Supreme Leader has expressed hope that the dispute can be resolved peacefully.
Continued on Page 47
Posted by: Steve White ||
06/15/2009 16:59 ||
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In Tehran, a Rallying Cry: 'We are the People of Iran'
The statistics, circulated on Iranian blogs and websites, claimed Mr Mousavi had won 19.1 million votes while Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had won only 5.7 million.
The two other candidates, reformist Mehdi Karoubi and hardliner Mohsen Rezai, won 13.4 million and 3.7 million respectively. The authenticity of the leaked figures could not be confirmed.
#4
Dinner Jacket would look even better with a third eye just below his hairline. I'd suggest .45 caliber.
Posted by: Old Patriot ||
06/15/2009 18:02 Comments ||
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ION WORLD MIL FORUM > IIUC IN THE IMAGE/LIKENESS OF CHAIRMAN MAO:IRAN'S "MAGIC FIGURE" PRESIDENT MAHMOUD AHMADINEJAD HAS CREATED A POWERFUL IRAN! Moud has induced the USA + Europe to joing hands in trying to stop Iran's manifest destiny???
OTOH SAME > RADICALIST/ISLAMIST IRAN LIKES TO PROCLAIM ITS "INDEPENDENT" AGENDA FROM OTHER WORLD POWERS. IN REALITY, IRAN UNDER THE MULLAHS WILL MOVE TOWARDS COMMUNISM!?
HMMMM, HMMMM, lest we fergit CLINTON 1990'S > WTC 1 + OKLAMHOMOA CITY + USS COLE Attacks > GOD-BASED LEFTIES = ISLAM/ISLAMISM-BASED LEFTIES???
Posted by: Bill Sheren ||
06/15/2009 12:50 Comments ||
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note Andrew Sullivan is liveblogging this fairly intensively. The "tweets" he is quoting indicate, if I read them correctly, that a big crackdown is happening at the demonstration.
Posted by: liberal hawk ||
06/15/2009 13:51 Comments ||
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or maybe not.
"More on todays rally from eyewitnesses we trust: The rally was scheduled to be from 4-6 pm, going from Englab Sq. to Azadi Sq. The Ministry of Interior did not provide a permit for the rally according to our source, and the first 3,000-4,000 people were met by armed forces in full riot gear and a number of Basij officials in street attire. By 4 pm, there were 100,000-200,000 people ready to attend the rally, and Mousavi, Karroubi, Khatami, Khatamis brother, and Karbassji (former mayor of Tehran and affiliate of Rafsanjani) all showed up.
The armed forces did not engage the crowd and the crowd started to chant arm forces, support support i.e nuroyeh entzammy: hemayat hemayat. According to the source, there will be a rally tomorrow for Mousvi tomorrow at 5 pm in Vali Asr Sq. and there will be a national strike by all of Mousavis supporters.
He says Mousavis supporters are outraged by Ahmadinejads rhetoric towards them, calling them a bunch of yahoos and no-gooders, whose aims is to disrupt the nation and its security"
Posted by: liberal hawk ||
06/15/2009 13:53 Comments ||
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calling them a "bunch of yahoos and no-gooders, whose aims is to disrupt the nation and its security
Sounds like Janet Napolitano talking about veterans and conservatives...
Posted by: M. Murcek ||
06/15/2009 14:22 Comments ||
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calling them a "bunch of yahoos and no-gooders, whose aims is to disrupt the nation and its security
Sounds like Janet Napolitano talking about veterans and conservatives...
Well, yeah Murcek. That or most of us here at Rantburg describing Congress. . . .
#7
I heard somewhere POTUS was going to speak on Iran at 5 ET. The pressure on him to speak is growing - see Bill Kristol's comments today on WS
Posted by: liberal hawk ||
06/15/2009 16:13 Comments ||
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POTUS is meeting Berlusconi of Italy. They will speak to the press at 5, IIUC, and it is expected POTUS will say something about Iran then.
Posted by: liberal hawk ||
06/15/2009 16:25 Comments ||
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#9
He will be careful not to back one candidate, just demand what the masses are demanding.
Dinnerjacket MUST have cheated. Let's see what the mullahs will do.
1) Investigate but find no fault: Big problems
2) Investigate and find some faults then
a) just correct from 61% to maybe 55% (don't think that will work but they might try)
b) Declare a runoff between the two (best choice for them)
3) Declare elections invalid and order new ones.
a) with Dinnerjacket
b) without Dinnerjacket
Posted by: European Conservative ||
06/15/2009 16:31 Comments ||
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If I had to guess I'd guess POTUS is going to call for "calm".
From the WaPo
The election results in Iran may reflect the will of the Iranian people. Many experts are claiming that the margin of victory of incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was the result of fraud or manipulation, but our nationwide public opinion survey of Iranians three weeks before the vote showed Ahmadinejad leading by a more than 2 to 1 margin -- greater than his actual apparent margin of victory in Friday's election.
What is the value of a 'public opinion poll' in a country run by thugs? Does anyone think that people will state their honest opinion if there is any chance that the secret police will then beat the crap out of them?
While Western news reports from Tehran in the days leading up to the voting portrayed an Iranian public enthusiastic about Ahmadinejad's principal opponent, Mir Hossein Mousavi, our scientific sampling from across all 30 of Iran's provinces showed Ahmadinejad well ahead.
Oh, scientific are we? How did you account for the fear factor in your polling?
Independent and uncensored nationwide surveys of Iran are rare. Typically, preelection polls there are either conducted or monitored by the government and are notoriously untrustworthy. By contrast, the poll undertaken by our nonprofit organizations from May 11 to May 20 was the third in a series over the past two years. Conducted by telephone from a neighboring country, field work was carried out in Farsi by a polling company whose work in the region for ABC News and the BBC has received an Emmy award. Our polling was funded by the Rockefeller Brothers Fund. Now, how is their poll a contrast to the typical rigged poll? Because it is the third in a series, which is what they seem to say here? Non-sequitur. More importantly, note that they don't really say their poll was independent and uncensored.
They'd like to think it was because then it gives them the reassurance that all is well and in conformance with their pre-conceived ideas. That's the whole point of this: Bush is evil, Cheney is evil, therefore Short Round is good, so let's 'prove' it.
The breadth of Ahmadinejad's support was apparent in our preelection survey. During the campaign, for instance, Mousavi emphasized his identity as an Azeri, the second-largest ethnic group in Iran after Persians, to woo Azeri voters. Our survey indicated, though, that Azeris favored Ahmadinejad by 2 to 1 over Mousavi. Much commentary has portrayed Iranian youth and the Internet as harbingers of change in this election. But our poll found that only a third of Iranians even have access to the Internet, while 18-to-24-year-olds comprised the strongest voting bloc for Ahmadinejad of all age groups.
The only demographic groups in which our survey found Mousavi leading or competitive with Ahmadinejad were university students and graduates, and the highest-income Iranians. When our poll was taken, almost a third of Iranians were also still undecided. Yet the baseline distributions we found then mirror the results reported by the Iranian authorities, indicating the possibility that the vote is not the product of widespread fraud. There is also a possibility that this poll was approved by the Revolutionary Guards. Which seems more likely?
Note that the article is written by the same two stooges who conducted the poll. Continued on Page 47
Hi. I am conducting a poll for a lead NGO, and I would like to know whom you plan to vote for for president. I am not representive of the revolutionary Guards, no sir.
Posted by: liberal hawk ||
06/15/2009 12:48 Comments ||
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TEHRAN, Iran (CNN) -- Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declined Sunday to guarantee the safety of his defeated rival Mir Hossein Moussavi in response to a question from CNN Chief International Correspondent Christiane Amanpour.
"There is rule of law in this country and all the people are equal before the law," Ahmadinejad said when Amanpour asked if he would guarantee Moussavi's safety. She also asked why opposition leaders had been arrested.
"In a soccer match, people may become excited and there may be confrontation between the people and the police force. People who violate traffic regulations will be fined by the police no matter who he is. These are not problems," Ahmadinejad said.
When Amanpour asked a second time if Ahmadinejad would guarantee Moussavi's safety, he said he had already answered the question.
Moussavi's a deader, it's just a question of when ...
There were conflicting reports on whether Moussavi had been placed under house arrest. Some reports indicated that he had been detained. Others said he was at home, conducting meetings but was free to come and go. Guards were stationed outside his house, but it was not immediately clear whether they worked for him or the government.
Analysts had expected Moussavi, a former prime minister who is regarded as a reformist, to defeat Ahmadinejad. Moussavi is credited for successfully navigating the Iranian economy during a bloody eight-year war with Iraq in the 1980s. And he enjoyed tremendous support among the youth. Iran's population has a median age of 27.
When the ballots were counted, the government declared Ahmadinejad the winner -- with 62.63 percent of the vote. Moussavi received 33.75 percent. Moussavi disputed the results, blaming "untrustworthy monitors." Independent election observers were banned from polling places.
"The results announced for the 10th presidential elections are astonishing," he said in a statement. "People who stood in long lines and knew well who they voted for were utterly surprised by the magicians working at the television and radio broadcasting."
Angered by the returns, Moussavi's supporters took to the streets Saturday. With handkerchiefs and surgical masks shielding them from the pungency of tear gas, they clashed openly with police in a rare challenge to the regime.
Continued on Page 47
Posted by: Steve White ||
06/15/2009 00:00 ||
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There is rule of law in this country and all the people are equal before the law
Wall Street Journal report; it's much as other articles in the news but does provide some on-site descriptions. I'm just posting the protest details here.
The violence in the streets ratcheted up the stakes in the most contentious election since the founding of the Islamic republic 30 years ago. Prolonged strife or a political standoff would heighten the uncertainty hanging over a country that is one of the world's biggest oil producers and Washington's main irritant in the volatile Middle East.
As night descended on Tehran Saturday, supporters of main challenger Mir Hossein Mousavi clashed with anti-riot police and plain-clothed militia. The city resembled a military zone as thousands of Special Forces units and anti-riot police stormed streets waving their electric batons and hitting rioters and onlookers.
So far no news on whether people in other Iranian cities are also protesting. If not, this is going to be short-lived.
Military cars blocked large swaths of main throughways and instead of traffic police, the para-military Basijis--trained volunteers in plain-clothes--were directing traffic. Vali Asr, the long Tehran avenue where Mousavi supporters last week formed a giant human chain during presidential campaigning, was covered in smoldered black ash--from burnt campaign posters that had been ripped from walls--and shattered glass. Dark smoke hung in the air from garbage dumpsters that were set ablaze on many streets.
On Motahari Avenue, one of the major streets in central Tehran, three public buses were set afire by demonstrators. Syamak Izadi, 62 years old, said he was riding on the bus in central Tehran when a group of men, dressed in Mr. Mousavi's trademark green, stopped the bus and told passengers to get off. They then doused it with gasoline and set it afire, he said.
Protestors played cat and mouse with the police. They gathered on corners throwing their fists in the air, then ran away when riot police descended. On Hafteh Tir square, several hundred people, including men and women, young and old, marched blocking traffic shouting "God is Great" and asking the public to join them. People gathered on pedestrian bridges and encouraged the protestors while drivers honked their horns.
There was unconfirmed shooting reported in northern Tehran with reports of one woman injured from stray bullets.
"The results are not acceptable to us, Mousavi needs to lead the crowd and depose this government," said a 37-year-old biologist who gave his name only as Kasra.
Shouts of "Allah o Akbar" rocked Tehran, reminiscent of the revolution where residents take to their rooftops and shout God is Great in order to show their protest.
Mobile phone service was suspended across the capital. BBC's Persian language service, which many Iranians listen to for news, was jammed. Social networking site Facebook, used by Mr. Mousavi's young supporters to organize, was blocked. On Vali Asr, a pedestrian bridge was set ablaze near Mellat Park.
Supporters of Mr. Mousavi had begun gathering outside the interior ministry and outside his campaign headquarter in central Tehran early in the morning. At that time, uniformed police and plain-clothes security officials broke up groups of protesters, chasing some away from the buildings.
At one point, groups of supporters near Mr. Mousavi's headquarters shouted "death to the dictator," a chant borrowed from the Iranian revolution. Security forces responded by bludgeoning several with batons.
Several journalists were beaten badly, and a female protester was beaten unconscious by uniformed police. As the police battled the protesters, demonstrators and onlookers from windows and from the sides of the streets shouted, "security forces, shame on you."
"Is this democracy?" said Ali Reza, a 30-year-old Mousavi campaign worker, whose eyes were red from tear gas and his white pants torn and bloodied. "We don't have any power to fight these people, but what they are doing is unfair," he said.
Security forces also used pepper spray and tear gas against workers inside the campaign headquarters, throwing canisters through the front door.
Most shopkeepers had closed their stores along the street. But several also opened their doors to provide refuge to protesters. At a traditional Persian restaurant, security forces knocked down the front door, and dragged out dozens of young men and women.
Iranian universities--in the middle of final exams--suspended classes for a week as of today, students said.
Continued on Page 47
Posted by: Steve White ||
06/15/2009 00:00 ||
Comments ||
Link ||
[11141 views]
Top|| File under:
#1
No news out of the Kurdish, Azeri, Arab, Baluchi, Turkmen regions.
The Iranian (Persian) nightmare scenario is to lose control simultaneously in these regions which surround the Persian heartland.
#2
The problem is that these people continue to have faith in a method of change that is inapplicable to their enemies. They look at the peaceful resistance methods of Ghandi and King and think that they are magic wands applicable to all peoople, not realizing that those methods were carefully adapted to trigger change processes built into Western culture by Judaeo/Christianity, and thus do not work in Muslim or Communistic contexts explicitly designed without those influences.
#3
Iran has a young population that doesn't remember life before the '79 revolution but they are tech savvy. Dinnerjacket cut off the news media and Facebook so Twitter became the means of communication. Too bad they didn't have a real choice in the elections or they might have overthrown the mullahtocracy.
#4
I have seen reports in standard MSM sources of disturbances in Resht (a Caspian sea resort) and in Shiraz, on Sunday. It has definitely spread beyond Teheran, but not clear how big those protests are, as MSM has no people (AFAIK) outside Teheran and seems to be relying on phone interviews. Nothing about the Azeri region, that I know of (recall many Azeris live in Teheran, and they are generally more assimilated and more pro-regime than their ethnic cousins in NW Iran)
All in all, this is a great time. Even if this is not THE revolution, it rips the mask off the Khameni-Ahmadinajid-Rev Guards regime.
Posted by: liberal hawk ||
06/15/2009 11:07 Comments ||
Top||
#5
Last news is that more than a million people have gathered to protest in Tehran.
Reminds me of Leipzig 1989. This could be big.
Posted by: European Conservative ||
06/15/2009 11:07 Comments ||
Top||
#6
Ptah - clearly some Iranians are quite open to non-Gandhian means, as shown by the videos of rock throwing students, burning cars, and, IIUC, molotov cocktails. Of course the conventional narrative of the history of India leaves out a lot of history of non-Gandhian tactics as well. It was far more violent than you would know watching the Attenboro film.
It is not at all clear to me that using massive violence on the protestors wont have serious costs for the regime. Both in further alienating fence sitters in the population, and in embarassing the regimes friends in the arab world. Even if you discount that, alienating the regimes sympathizers in the West would still be no small thing.
Posted by: liberal hawk ||
06/15/2009 11:12 Comments ||
Top||
#7
The important thing about the million is that people feel their power.
You can't gun down a million. When I saw a million people demonstrating in Leipzig against the Communist regime they feared weeks ago, I knew this was over.
If the mullah do not get this under control very soon they could face a real revolution.
If Khamenei faces a Mussolini fate that of course would be the max
Posted by: European Conservative ||
06/15/2009 11:14 Comments ||
Top||
#8
See how powerful my words are?
Another victory for Marxism me!
Posted by: The One ||
06/15/2009 12:14 Comments ||
Top||
#9
AP:
One of Mousavi's Web sites said a student protester was killed early Monday in clashes with plainclothes hard-liners in Shiraz, southern Iran. But there was no independent confirmation of the report. There also have been unconfirmed reports of unrest in other cities.
Most media are not allowed to travel beyond Tehran and thus can not independently confirm protests in other cities.
Posted by: liberal hawk ||
06/15/2009 13:10 Comments ||
Top||
#10
You don't need to gun down a million. A million can be dispersed with enough tear gas & rubber bullets. Then you just need to gun down a couple thousand. The recent Burmese illustration suggests that about eight thousand bodies will break any non-military uprising.
This comes to nothing unless military units mutiny.
Posted by: Mitch H. ||
06/15/2009 13:13 Comments ||
Top||
Size of course. A million protestors in Iran is a lot more than a million in China, proportionately.
stability of the regime. Not only had china been ruled by the CCP for 40 years, but in 1989 had it little in the way of civil society. Iran has some non gov political organizations. Much more widespread comm technology.
Regional goals. China in 1989 did not care about its regional influence. Today it exercises influence based purely on its economic clout. Iran, OTOH, has since the Islamists came to power attempted to influence the region using its ideological appeal to disaffected muslim, sunnis as well as Shias.
In China in 89, such divisions within the regime as there were hushed up. The elite feared disorder, based on their exp of the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution. In Iran, apparently elements of the regime are quite willing to use the street against their own enemies IE the Khameni-Ahmadinajad-IRGC factions against the Rafsanjani-Moussavi faction. The actual antiregime reformers on the streets are a third force - they are trying to use Raf-Moussav while Raf-Mousav are trying to use them.
Posted by: liberal hawk ||
06/15/2009 15:05 Comments ||
Top||
#15
thank you Steve, you are most gracious. expect me here only occasionaly. This is an example of the kind of time when I most want to be here.
Posted by: liberal hawk ||
06/15/2009 15:06 Comments ||
Top||
#16
"The actual antiregime reformers on the streets are a third force - they are trying to use Raf-Moussav while Raf-Mousav are trying to use them."
This is a critical point.
What is missing is how we are using the factions and recent developments to achieve our own goals. Iran has factions and internal contradictions to how it is structured and how it operates economically. Our desired end state should be an Iran (or what is left of it when we are done) that:
a) does not threaten freedom of navigation in the Gulf
b) is not aggressive towards its neighbors (this includes supporting terrorism and proxies, not just nukes).
c)Ideally they also become an ally contributing to real peace and stability in which the US is the balancing force between Arab and Persian and Sunni and Shia blocs in the region as well as a bulwark against Russia's ambitions.
We badly want to avoid war, which might help us reach a and b (at high cost and risk) but would come at the cost of c. So we have been patient in dealing with the corrupt mullarchy even as they have fanned the flames of conflict in Lebanon and vs. Israel and killed Americans in Iraq. We hope somehow the regime will reform as younger Iranians and different ethnic groups demand more liberty and less corruption as well as better relations with the west.
This election 'crisis' is probably our last best opportunity for this to happen so we can avoid war. We should be supporting opposition groups materially (and covertly, so maybe it is happening), conducting info and psyops, calling BS in the UN and other fora, asking for international observers, open communications, etc.
Despite my initial hope that the President's Cairo speech was part of an initiative to re-set things in Iran ahead of the 'elections', it appears that our policy is to consider events there an internal matter between the secret police and the voters. Although this policy is more likely to lead to war down the road, it is proudly referred to as 'realism' by the Obama administration which has reversed our evil neocon democracy speading regime changing Bush policy so that people will stop hating us.
I liked it better when we helped -- to the extent -- possible folks taking to the streets to demand liberty to the extent possible. We don't appear to be lifting a finger.
Big irony here. Obama admin seems nervous that ANY US support for the protestors would taint the protestors. BUT the very presence of BHO in the WH, arguably, should go a long way to "untainting" that support, compared to the situation under W. Is BHO being SO realist, he is underestimating his own impact on the perception of the US? I am not sure myself. I dont know if the admin has thought this out, or if they have, have done so clearheadedly.
It seems to me this is NOT what they expected. What they expected and hoped for was a clean Mousavi win, which would have enabled them to start their engagement campaign with the Raf-Moussav faction, without the costs and difficulties of dealing with dinnerjacket. The other situation they were prepared for was a clean dinnerjacket win, which would have meant the pain of dealing with dinnerjacket, but they at least had a course to follow.
This OTOH, I think has thrown them completely offguard, which is why it has taken them days to formulate a response (assuming that is forthcoming this evening)
Posted by: liberal hawk ||
06/15/2009 16:03 Comments ||
Top||
#18
And taking those days, is hurting The One with the Iranian people --
I spent a goodly amount of time yesterday (too hot in Texas to do anything) reading the Tweeters coming out of Iran -- lots and lots and lots and lots of comments like "Obama where are you? Obama, help us... we love you.... Obama, we need you..."
And like Doc Steve, good to see you back Liberal Hawk.
#19
The mullahs know that they can't alienate the well educated urban class. Actually they had certain freedoms (look at the headscarves), their life's not too bad.
If they get disillusioned they will vote with their feet and the mullahs can't stop them.
Dinnerjacket is expendable
Posted by: European Conservative ||
06/15/2009 16:23 Comments ||
Top||
#20
EC
They certainly are counting on the scientists and engineers to build them their atom bomb, among other things.
I am not sure Dinnerjacket is expendable though - 4 years ago Khameni was more worried about the poor masses overthrowing a corrupt Rafsanjani led regime, and that is still a threat.
Posted by: liberal hawk ||
06/15/2009 16:28 Comments ||
Top||
#21
I've been doing some checking around the web. Here's a link to the Times of London's weblog, showing additional links to stories coming out of Iran. Michael Totten's link also shows much of what's going on inside the country. Here is a link to the National Council of Resistance for Iran's website, with some very good articles and links.
Posted by: Old Patriot ||
06/15/2009 16:56 Comments ||
Top||
#22
I agree that they probably expected a Mousavi win, maybe in a runoff and we could then use that as an excuse to improve relations. However, this was probably naive as elections there are highly suspect given the role of the Guardian counsel and how they are conducted. A 'clean' win is hard to define let alone plan for.
Stratfor said A'jad in fact won because he is trusted on key issues of corruption, piety and national security and that we're all clueless because we base our assessemnt of Iran on English speaking, pro Western Iranians.
I disagree on the fraud issue, from what I've read. But it really does not matter: we have a chance to destablize an enemy regime and help liberty seeking people by exploiting the post election crisis and we're not doing it.
I too noted that many of the protestors were begging Obama to help. Obama, in turn, seems unlikely to underestimate his mystical power to 'untaint.' I can only, therefore, conclude that a) he prefers deailing with A'jed vs. taking chance going after the regime or b) he is just not on his game as you say.
Any statements and actions by us would have to have happened already to have an impact.
Amid continuing tension in the Iranian capital over Friday's elections, Iran's Ministry of Information on Sunday ordered the satellite television news channel al-Arabiya to close its Tehran bureau for a week, the channel reported.
Al-Arabiya is one of the good guys overall. They do some stupid things sometimes but they're willing to go places no one in the West can go to gather news.
Diya al-Nasseri, the network's Tehran correspondent, announced the ministry's decision on air on Sunday afternoon. He said authorities declined to give any justification for the order, but added that it had come after hours of negotiations over an al-Arabiya report the ministry wanted to see changed.
Shortly after al-Nasseri made his announcement on air, authorities called him again, Nabil Khatib, executive news manager at the channel said in comments published on al-Arabiya website. "Our correspondent just got a call after we announced the news inviting him for a meeting at the ministry tomorrow to discuss the situation. Until then he's banned from doing any work," Khatib said.
"Al-Arabiya is worried about being banned from the chance to cover an important country like Iran during an important event like the elections and afterwards without explaining the reason behind that decision," he said.
Later in the day, the station ran footage from Iranian state television of a Tehran rally in support of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Footage of the president's press conference aired on the channel Sunday afternoon was from a feed, a journalist at the station's headquarters in Dubai said.
Alongside the Qatari network al-Jazeera, the Dubai-based network is one of the two leading satellite news channels in the Middle East.
The bureau's closure came as police confirmed the arrest of 50 demonstrators and 10 "organizers" following clashes between riot police and supporters of opposition leader Mir Hossein Moussavi on Saturday night. In remarks carried by Iran's official IRNA news agency, deputy police chief Ahmed Radan said more arrests would follow.
Photographs and videos from Tehran showed police beating protesters on Saturday, but a news embargo in the local media made details difficult to come by.
The demonstrators were protesting what they said were fraudulent results from Friday's presidential elections, which showed a landslide victory for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Continued on Page 47
Posted by: Steve White ||
06/15/2009 00:00 ||
Comments ||
Link ||
[11132 views]
Top|| File under:
#1
al-Arabiya has a lot of Saudi money behind it and well as money from the Hariri family (Yes that one).
Like al Jazeera, their controlling studio is in Dubai. Prior to about 2008 or so, al Arabiya was less friendly to terrorist spokesmen than al Jazeera, and in fact, al Jazeera employees had been assisting al Queda. Since that time al Jazeera has been steadily becoming less friendly to terrorists.
Posted by: Lord garth ||
06/15/2009 8:33 Comments ||
Top||
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Sunday said any country that dared to attack Iran would "deeply regret" such a move, dashing hopes that his re-election Saturday would temper his confrontational stance toward the world.
"Who dares to attack Iran? Who even dares to think about it?" Ahmadinejad said at a news conference in response to a question.
Iran's refusal to halt nuclear work the West suspects is aimed at making bombs, a charge Tehran denies, has sparked persistent speculation that Israel or the United States might strike at the country's nuclear facilities. Ahmadinejad added that Iran's nuclear issue "belongs in the past," indicating there would be no change in nuclear policy during his second term in office.
Meanwhile, defeated presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi formally appealed against Iran's election result on Sunday to the legislative body, the Guardian Council, a statement on his website said. "Today, I have submitted my official formal request to the council to cancel the election result," Mousavi said in the statement. "I urge you Iranian nation to continue your nationwide protests in a peaceful and legal way."
Iranian police again clashed on Sunday with demonstrators protesting in Tehran against his re-election. Supporters of defeated reformist Mir Hossein Mousavi, who has dismissed Ahmadinejad's victory in Friday's election as a "dangerous charade", gathered in the city centre, chanted his name and threw stones at police, a Reuters witness said.
Police on motorcycles drove through the crowd to disperse the protesters. At least one person, a woman, was injured. Police briefly detained journalists filming the violence.
Continued on Page 47
Posted by: Steve White ||
06/15/2009 00:00 ||
Comments ||
Link ||
[11129 views]
Top|| File under:
#1
Regrets and guilt feelings is an integral part of being Jewish.
Ahmadinejad said at his first press conference after his re-election, that 70 million have celebrated the June 12 elections, yet only 40 million people who celebrated the victory. He added "Protestation is a natural way to be acted by some, due to the fact that they have not achieved enough votes as advertised." In addition, he stressed on the fact that Iran lives high "freedom".
Moreover, he commented on The Council of Guardians, stating that they only rely on law and justice, in order to give any opinion.
Translation: "The mullahs still love me best. Cross me at your peril."
He refused the fact that many have condemned and questioned the elections, therfore, he said that Iran have chose thier representative by their own.
Translation: "c.f. my comments about the Guardian Council."
In addition, Ahmedinejad said now the election procedure was wrapped up it is now time for friendship and construction of the country.
Translation: "c.f. my comments about the Guardian Council."
Meanwhile he said that airspace is open for whoever wants to discuss politics, yet there is no problems with the election and nothing to be discussed in this matter.
Translation: "c.f. my comments about the Guardian Council."
Highlighting the great potential and splendid capacities of the Iranian nation for development and advancement in different arenas, he will focus on consolidating infrastructures in cultural, political and economic domains.
Karzai lauded the large turnout and congratulated the Iranian people "for making a decision about their destiny," according to a statement from the presidential palace.
The Afghan president said that relations between Afghanistan and its western neighbor "expanded" during Ahmadinejad's time in office and that he hoped ties would continue to strengthen.
Continued on Page 47
Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem said here Sunday that there was a Syrian-US agreement based on a roadmap for a normalization of relations in political, security and cultural domains.
Oh great, what are we giving away to this set of thugs to have 'normal' relations?
Al-Muallem was quoted by Syria News as telling the US Foreign Policy magazine that he had recently agreed with US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton over a roadmap for a normalization of relations between Damascus and Washington. He said they had a similar vision based on three points, notably Iraq's stability, comprehensive Middle East peace and fight against terrorism.
He was also quoted as voicing his country's willingness to improve ties with the US, hoping that US President Barack Obama could honor his promise to achieve comprehensive peace in the Middle East region.
Syrian-US relations have improved since Obama took over in January 2009, with US Middle East Envoy George Mitchell having traveled to Damascus in the first visit of its kind by a senior US official since 2005.
On US-Iranian relations, the Syrian foreign minister offered that his country could act as a facilitator between Washington and Tehran.
For a big cut of whatever action there is to be had, of course ...
D'ya think Tehran or Chicago-on-teh-Potomac will notice which "cuts" get taken and when?
Iraq's president has congratulated his Iranian counterpart Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on his re-election. Jalal Talabani is the second head of state in the world to offer support for the hard-liner following Afghan President Hamid Karzai's statement.
Talabani says the victory shows support for Ahmadinejad personally as well as "the approach taken by the Islamic Republic" under Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Talabani expressed confidence "that the friendly and neighborly relations" will improve in the coming years.
Continued on Page 47
#5
Mousavi is no reformer, the educated Iranian population just wants somebody, anybody, other than Dinnerjacket. As noted above, he's still popular in the uneducated countryside. There's a good campaign slogan: "The ignorant support me overwhelmingly!".... almost Bidenesqe
Posted by: Frank G ||
06/14/2009 8:34 Comments ||
Top||
#6
1. Bidenesque
Although a Regular Joe, Very Stately. Also, Comforting, Down to Earth, Trustworthy(by politician standards), Articulate, Likable, Intelligent.
Bidenesque is the opposite of Palinesque.
#9
Bidenesqe: (adj.) - prone to stoopid ("FDR's TV broadcast to nation") made-up shit, dumb gaffes, Sheriff Joe, Ineveitable fraud in stimulus funds, makes Dan Quayle look great
Posted by: Frank G ||
06/14/2009 9:55 Comments ||
Top||
#10
Besoeker -- this Bidenesque description cuts me to the core -- I know regular joes, I am a regular joe, and Biden ain't no regular joe.
As for the topic at hand, ie: riots in Iran, I say burn baby burn.
Posted by: regular joe ||
06/14/2009 11:30 Comments ||
Top||
#11
Sarcasm Joe, purley sarcasm. I failed to label it as such. My bad.
#12
He's gotten so soft lately he probably thinks The Daily Show is a legit news program.
I'm not sure that Jon Stewart isn't more evenhanded than Katie Couric.
Posted by: Abu Uluque ||
06/14/2009 14:31 Comments ||
Top||
#13
Finding twitters like this, all within the last 30 minutes. Shots heard in west and north Tehran, baseej out in full force, just saw dozens of them on Vali-e Asr, wielding batons.
Things R getting much hotter than the past couple of days. More people joining protests & strikes screaming on roofs" 1 minute ago
NEWS: Rasht, glass splinters on the streets, riot police not hesitating to beat men, women and even kids 11 minutes ago Rasht is north of Tehran, close to Caspian Sea.
some anti riot forces are speaking in Arabic! apparently imported from Lebanon .. and other reports that Hezbollah being sighted.
[T]hrough the guardianship [Velayat] that I have from the holy lawgiver [the Prophet], I hereby pronounce Bazargan as the Ruler, and since I have appointed him, he must be obeyed. The nation must obey him. This is not an ordinary government. It is a government based on the sharia. Opposing this government means opposing the sharia of Islam ... Revolt against God's government is a revolt against God. Revolt against God is blasphemy.
Ayatollah Khomeini February 1979
I saw this Khomeini quote on Daily Pundit today.
It's probably something like the Founding Statement of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Iran does not even pretend to be a democracy, it's a Sharia theocracy, by its own admission.
Why the surprise among the commentariat (especially the "experts on Iran")?
# The raid of NBC comes after ABC's cameras and tapes were taken yesterday. ABC reporting via cell phone. about 1 hour ago from web
# NBC offices in Tehran raided, cameras and Equipment confiscated. BBC told to get out Iran immediately. Cell/internet shut down #iranelection about 1 hour ago from web
# RT @reyhani: Iran's military has issued a statement to Revolutionary Guard, it will NOT get involved against Iranians. #iranelection 10 minutes ago from web
#20
These theocratic crazies are going to take the country to the brink and maybe beyond to fulfill some religious apocalyptic notion. The people in Iran must sense that. They also sense theirs votes don't mean anything in a rigged election.
Posted by: Frank G ||
06/14/2009 16:33 Comments ||
Top||
#24
Meh.
Let's assume, for the moment, that the "protesters" (whoever they are) manage to overthrow the government and execute Ahmadawhatever. What next? Do they have any actual ideology, or plan, or ideas? Or is it some sort of Tiananmen-style "we have no idea what we're doing but we're against you" stink-up?
#25
gromky -- I think that has been the problem all along -- there doesn't seem to be that person to step up -- folks I've read have indicated it isn't Mousavi -- although, he may be the only one right now.
Maybe his wife! An interview she did with VoA, being replayed right now --
(read from the bottom up)
# NEWS: The correct votes were 19,7M Mousavi, Karoubi 7M, Rezaei 3M, Ahmadinejad 7-8M less than a minute ago from Seesmic Desktop
# NEWS: Mousavi got a phone call from election dept. at 1am on election night, they told him "You won, prepare your victory speech"2 minutes ago from Seesmic Desktop
# I am listening and writing down all the news, plz stay tuned... #iranelection 9 minutes ago from Seesmic Desktop
# NEWS: Alireza Noorizadeh from VoA has some crazy info.. very trustworthy source #iranelection 11 minutes ago from Seesmic Desktop
# Ppl this is some serious insider news, VERY trustworthy, so it doesn't need confirmation #iranelection 1 minute ago from Seesmic Desktop
# NEWS All three of them, Mousavi, Karoubi and Rezai got the same numbers from the election dept. that night #iranelection 3 minutes ago from Seesmic Desktop
Reading items like the piece you excerpted from the New Republic reminds me of the strategic opportunities that Obama has squandered by demonizing Bush and the Iraq war for years.
Imagine how powerful it would be for Obama (or, more likely, a surrogate) to be able to stand up and say to the Iranian protesters, Under the USA, your neighbor Iraq held free and fair elections. The government of Iran went out of its way to demonize the US and undermine those elections. We are now seeing the results of that mindset come home to Iran as you are denied a voice by your government in your own elections. The US government stands behind all who seek free and fair elections.
Of course, he cant say that with any legitimacy because he has spent years putting down Bush and Iraq. This is a classic example of why partisan bickering needs to be toned down; it hamstrings the new Administration. So frustrating to watch.
#30
Here's 2:44 of Iran -- Riot Control Officers surrounded they were two , both captured and beaten , the other one had lost conciousness and this one gave up
Those guys got out of that situation really good, in other locales, they would have been stomped to death or burned alive (heck, even in France, Youths would do just that, or short of it, to any caught riot cop), here, one of them is apparently protected by some fellows and given water.
#31
Eventually, someone will do something stupid, and there will be outright war. One of the worst things that DinnerJacket can do is to attack a ship in the Persian Gulf. If the Iranians actually SANK a ship, especially an American ship, we would HAVE to respond, whether Obambi wanted to or not. Otherwise, the entire world will ignite. I'm not sure who - or how many - would survive.
Posted by: Old Patriot ||
06/14/2009 17:39 Comments ||
Top||
#32
ION WAFF > VIDEO: SOUTH AZERBAIJANIS ROCKING IRAN, WANTIING THEIR FREEDOM.
#33
ALso on WAFF > PAYVAND NEWS SURVEY [Pie chart]: THIS IS WHAT IRAN WILL LOK LIKE IN 50 YEARS.
To wit, IRAN CIRCA 2050 OR AFTER WILL BE
*40% Muslim
*40% No Religion = Secularist, Atheist. Religio "Moderate/Tolerant"
* 20% Non-Muslim = ALL OTHER FAITHS.
** SAME > THE CLEANSING OF GREECE HAS BEGUN [Govt. Officios promise ROUTINE/DAILY, HEAVY-HANDED CRACKDOWN agz ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS]???
#35
The key here is the Kurds, Abzerjanis and SW Arabs. If they are rioting (and there is little access to them), then the regime may fall, especially if the Mullahs are stupid enough to use Arab Baseej (Alewites from Syria and Lebanon) in Farsi areas like Tehran.
#38
The people have spoken! Turn cell phone and State Run Media towers back up to full power please. The appointment and re-appointment of cabinent Zsars, ambassadors, and postings of other campaign contributors can now begin anew.
#39
That's why I've trying to move my Country away from these silly elections!
Another Yankee curse!
Posted by: Hugo ||
06/15/2009 12:03 Comments ||
Top||
#40
Sherry__ your posts remind me of the Phillipine elections years ago when Marcos tried to steal the vote. It took the IT vote tabulators leaving their offices en masse in protest of announced results that didn't match what they actually saw to finally topple the regime.
#41
No, it took an attempted military coup that the rest of the military then declined to put down in the face of millions in the streets. When the dictator saw that he had lost military support he fled.
The vote-tabulators walkout may have helped swing the US government (Sen Lugar in particular) decisively against Marcos though; the US did have a substantial effect on encouraging the coup and the non-response of the military.
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Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
The news that Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has ordered an investigation into charges of voter fraud in his country's presidential elections has been greeted with skepticism by many in the West. After all, it was Ayatullah Khamenei, who holds the ultimate authority in the theocratic nation, who rushed to embrace incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as the victor long before the ballots were counted. But his order to the Guardian Council, the powerful watchdog of the Iranian constitution, to start an investigation may not be as cynical as it appears. 
Amid continuing tension in the Iranian capital over Friday's elections, Iran's Ministry of Information on Sunday ordered the satellite television news channel al-Arabiya to close its Tehran bureau for a week, the channel reported. 
Ahmadinejad said at his first press conference after his re-election, that 70 million have celebrated the June 12 elections, yet only 40 million people who celebrated the victory. He added "Protestation is a natural way to be acted by some, due to the fact that they have not achieved enough votes as advertised." In addition, he stressed on the fact that Iran lives high "freedom".
