Marx would have delighted in the events of the 18th, all over Iran. Groucho, that is, for on the 18th the supreme leader and all his co-conspirators were transformed from figures of awe to objects of ridicule. As Machiavelli likes to remind us, the most dangerous thing for any leader is to earn the contempt of his followers, and the Iranian people made it luminously clear that they would no longer be intimidated. The regime had launched a vicious repression following the challenges to the "election results" of June 12th. For a hundred days they had killed, raped, tortured and threatened. In the runup to the 18th, the stern face of the leader of the Revolutionary Guards had appeared on television and his confident voice had been heard on the radio, warning that anyone who dared wear green, or carry protest signs, or chant criticism of the Islamic Republic, would be treated "very harshly." His words were like so much spittle in a storm; among the many chants in the streets that day, you could hear "rape, murder and torture will not silence us."
When a tyrannical regime dies, you can see the symptoms in the little things. Late Friday afternoon, after millions (yes, millions--this according to Le Monde, France 2, and L'Express, with the BBC saying that the demonstrations were bigger than those at the time of the Revolution) of Greens mobbed the streets and squares of more than thirty towns and cities to call for the end of the regime, there was a soccer game in Azadi Stadium in Tehran. It holds about a hundred thousand fans, and it was full of men wearing green and carrying green balloons. When state-run tv saw what was happening, the color was drained from the broadcast, and viewers saw the game in black and white. And when the fans began to chant "Death to the Dictator," "Death to Russia," and "Death to Putin, Chavez and Nasrallah, enemies of Iran," the sound was shut off. So the game turned into a silent movie.
But the censors forgot about the radio, and the microphones stayed open, so that millions of listeners could hear the sounds of the revolution. And in Azadi Stadium, as in most parts of the country, the security officers either walked away or joined the party.
You will not have heard such stories, nor read about them in our "media," which have raised denial of the day's major events to an art form of late. Rather like the Iranian regime, which used to have an enormous influence on the way citizens thought, the major broadcasters and dead-tree scribblers have also become objects of ridicule. On Sunday morning, Supreme Leader Khamenei proclaimed that the demonstrations had been an enormous success for the regime, but anyone looking at the pictures could see that he was short on sleep. So would you if you had heard the thunderous shouts of "Death to the Dictator" during the night. Khamenei's claim was greeted with ridicule.
Sunday also brought open contempt from some of the most revered leaders of the Shi'ite world. Khamene'i had declared Sunday the end of Ramadan, a day of feasts and prayers, one of the most joyous of the Muslim year. Such a proclamation is supposed to be canonical, for Khamene'i speaks in the name of all Muslims. But fifteen Grand Ayatollahs like Sistani (from Najaf, Iraq), Montazeri, Taheri and Sanei rejected Khamenei's reading of the moon, and said that the feast could not begin until Monday. No one could get away with such an open challenge to the supreme leader's theological authority unless there were a considerable consensus that his rule was illegitimate. And it's even worse for him: across the country, many mosques were closed on Sunday. The faithful were told to go home and fast, and come back the next day for prayer.
No wonder Khamenei looks tired. And in keeping with the avalanche of errors, today the Revolutionary Guards' favorite newspaper kept the whole thing going, insisting that the supreme leader was right after all. Stupid and irrelevant, a classic example of people in a hole who keep digging deeper.
These little stories illustrate a great event, indeed a world-changing event: the death of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Khamenei and Ahmadinejad, and the rest of the evil empire in Tehran, are all dead men walking. We don't know the schedule for the funeral yet, but Iranians know it's on the agenda. One will get you ten at my betting window that, aside from a very thin veneer of top officials (for whom there is no hope, for they will fulfill the demand of the nightly rooftop chants), anyone who is anyone in Iran today is trying to make a deal with Mousavi and Karroubi. They are all whispering that their hearts are green, and always were green.
Khamenei & Co. certainly know this, as they know they are being betrayed by some very high-ranking people. And the exodus is under way; by the end of the week we will see some important representatives of the Islamic Republic resign their posts, for they do not wish to be associated with it any longer.
Look at what didn't happen in the streets last Friday. Not a shot was fired at the millions of demonstrators in Tehran. There are YouTubes of police fraternizing with the Greens. There are stories of Revolutionary Guardsmen helping the demonstrators, and even the Basij didn't dare to attack or arrest, with a handful of exceptions (one of which is notable: in Tabriz, if I remember correctly, they started to round up some people, and the crowd turned on them, freed the would-be victims, and beat the Basijis to death).
And look at what else didn't happen: nobody tried to arrest Mousavi or Karroubi. Somebody tried to stab Khatami in the street, but it was thwarted, and Karroubi has been told to show up at a Revolutionary Tribunal to respond to charges of spreading false claims of rape and murder in the prisons. But this subpoena, which previously terrified the recipient, is no longer threatening. Karroubi has proclaimed it is good news, for it will give him the opportunity to present the evidence, which is iron-clad, and can no longer be destroyed (copies of documents, audios and videos are now in the hands of Green supporters in Europe and the United States).
So we have a regime of zombies in Tehran, but they can still do a lot of damage, to Iranians and to us. Early last week Khamenei summoned Afghan terrorist chieftain Gulbadin Hekhmatiar to Tehran, and told him to step up attacks against American and other Allied forces. Other Iranian-supported terrorist groups have received similar instructions.
Oh. I somehow missed that.
Under the circumstances, you'd think that your government would be talking to the Greens. But you'd be wrong. Perhaps Hillary Clinton thought she was telling the truth when she claimed, a few days after the insurrection of June 12th, that "behind the scenes" we were helping the Iranian opposition. If so, she shouldn't have said anything about it, but I don't think she was well informed. There are no contacts between the American Government and the leaders of the opposition. One should not expect the new government to look kindly upon a President Obama who publicly sweet-talked the Tehran butchers, and all but begged Khamenei for a few minutes of his precious time. The same applies to the Europeans, all of whom scrambled for oil and other commercial contracts, and none of whom talked to the Green leaders.
As so often, Martin Luther King Jr. summed it up perfectly: "In the end we will remember not the words of our enemies, but the silence of our friends."
Continued on Page 47
He (Medvedev) said Israel is not going to deliver any blows on Iran, as he was assured by Israeli President Shimon Peres during their recent meeting.
A question, and remember, death is not an option: whose lips are most likely to fall off, Medvedev or Peres? Discuss.
Medvedev said when he met Peres in Sochi last month, the Israeli president said "Israel does not intend to launch any strikes on Iran, we are a peaceful country and we will not do this."
Medvedev also confirmed a secret visit "in a close regime" by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Moscow earlier this month, whom he had conversation with, according to a transcript of the interview published by the Kremlin. Yet he did not disclose any details of their meeting. Israeli media said Netanyahu was to discuss Moscow's arms deals with Iran and Syria during the visit.
In Israel the president, however much loved, has no power, no more than the queen of England. It's the prime minister who makes runs things, and we must note that Mr. Medvedev does not quote PM Netanyahu on the subject. And of course, there is the lips factor.
Iran has celebrated the propagandist Quds Day [Jerusalem Day] for years in order to demonstrate its alleged concern towards the Palestinian Cause, however what was new this year is that many Iranian citizens came out not to denounce Israel or America, rather the Iranian demonstrators came out to chant the words "No to Gaza and Lebanon...I will give my life for Iran."
This means that Iran's allies in our region have reached the tipping point, for half the Iranian population is openly against them, leaving them reliant upon a regime whose internal legitimacy is weak, and weakening even further day after day. The demonstrations and dissention has not stopped in Iran, and today this is no longer merely present in Tehran, but has spread to other Iranian cities. Despite the claims of the regime that the dissension has decreased and declined, the anger and opposition has been present [in Iran] since Ahmadinejad's re-election.
Clearly, the internal crisis that the Iranian regime is facing is both deep and dangerous, not just to the mullah's regime, but to those who stand behind it. The religious authority of the Iranian Supreme leader has begun to erode, and the Iranians have begun to challenge the authority of the Revolutionary Guards. The Revolutionary Guard became a part of the conflict, and the commander of the silent coup that took place in Iran by standing behind Ahmadinejad.
The people of Iran have begun to deal with the Revolutionary Guard in the same manner that they used to deal with the forces of the Shah's regime prior to the Khomeini revolution. Reformist sources informed Asharq Al-Awsat that the Iranians have launched the boycott of goods imported by the Revolutionary Guards, such as rice, cigarettes, and other goods. This means that the Revolutionary Guards, who are able to seriously benefit from external sources, are now beginning to suffer from the internal conflict in Iran.
All of this means that the Iranian regime, its Supreme Leader, and his military forces, are suffering from the loss of internal legitimacy. This has weakened the regime's position with regards to supporting its allies and agents in the region, whether they are groups or nations. In the end the [Iranian] regime cannot ignore this internal division in order to continue to provide external support, in fact [the issue of] external support may be part of an internal settlement in the future.
This clarifies the difficult position which Iran's allies and agents in the region are currently in, as there is an internal Iranian rejection towards them, and this means that Tehran is unable to continue to provide them with unconditional support as was the case in the past. And so at the same time that Ahmadinejad was making his Quds Day speech in which he -- as usual -- attacked Israel and expressed his skepticism towards the Holocaust, thousands of Iranians came out chanting "No to Gaza and Lebanon, I will give my life for Iran."
Of course [Hezbollah chief] Hassan Nasrallah and others are unable to accuse half the population of Iran of being agents of Israel and the West, unless Nasrallah is more Iranian than the Iranians themselves. We must now closely monitor Iran's position, and the position of its allies in our region who have become struck by confusion. In fact I have been informed that only a few days ago a high-ranking member of Hamas was present in Saudi Arabia, and he informed an Arab figure that he is more eager towards Saudi Arabia and Egypt than any other country, and that he is ready to reconcile with Mahmoud Abbas.
Continued on Page 47
Posted by: Fred ||
09/21/2009 00:00 ||
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#2
Not too sure about that. 1905 came before 1917. But there were a dozen years in between.
Posted by: Fred ||
09/21/2009 8:36 Comments ||
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#3
Strategy Page recently pointed out the same thing. Apparently Hezbollah has been sounding much less warlike lately. This seems to be because they aren't sure their Iranian sugar daddies are going to be around much longer.
Posted by: Frozen Al ||
09/21/2009 11:23 Comments ||
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#4
The problem here is that Irans leadership has not required majority support since around the death of Khomeini. Back in the 1980's the regime depended on the patriotic unity of the Iranian population in its very costly war against Iraq. But since this mass army was eventually broken on the battlefield (Iraq won by bleeding Iran until Iranian morale failed), popular support has been much less important, and the regime has not relied on the people to support the government.
They are a clique, a subset of a subset of clerics, who are dependent only on their oil revenues and the limited following that their fanaticism and money bring them. They are not dependent on the rest of Iran for any of their power or influence.
I don't think that the Iranian people or even the regime elements that have broken off can do much if anything to end the regime. The other side not only has the money and arms, but it has far more loyal and much less accountable Praetorians than did the Shah. I suspect that unless somehow their oil revenues are cut off they can maintain themselves for at least another generation.
#5
They are a clique, a subset of a subset of clerics, who are dependent only on their oil revenues and the limited following that their fanaticism and money bring them. They are not dependent on the rest of Iran for any of their power or influence.
You left out the Revolutionary Guard; they control more of the Iranian economy than the clerics.
[Al Arabiya Latest] Iranian director Mohammad Rasoulof, forced to make his latest film "The White Meadows" under difficult conditions, used the San Sebastian film festival to lash out at the Tehran regime.
The film, in competition for the festival's top Golden Shell award, tells the story of a man, Rahmat, who for many years has been tasked with collecting the tears of residents of several islands, although no one knows exactly what he has been doing with them.
Told in the style of a traditional Iranian fable, it is a veiled attack on the Tehran regime.
"I come from a country full of contradictions and suffering, where there is a dictatorship," and "censorship does not allow me to talk openly about what happens in my country," he told a news conference on Saturday evening.
The film was shot in 58 days with both professional and non-professional actors in beautiful countryside by Lake Orumieh, which is dotted with rocky islets covered with salt crystals.
"The conditions were very difficult, we had trouble getting permission, our budget was very limited.... It was a clandestine, underground film.
"It is very difficult to make independent cinema in Iran, we don't have subsidies and we don't have the right to show our films in Iran."
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Posted by: Fred ||
09/21/2009 00:00 ||
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[Iran Press TV Latest] Lebanese army chief cautions his forces against Israeli 'schemes' after Tel Aviv blamed Beirut for a terror strike on the Israeli-occupied Palestinian lands.
Chief of the Lebanese Armed Forces Brigadier-General Jean Kahwaji urged the troops to encounter the maneuverings calling on them to be "firm with all those tampering with civil peace," Lebanese newspaper The Daily Star reported on Saturday.
He called for "more alertness on the southern border," where a self-professed al-Qaeda-affiliated group reportedly fired two Katyusha rockets into the northern part of the occupied territory.
The Israeli military responded by firing at least a dozen shells into southern Lebanon. Despite the appearance of a signed statement on a militant website claiming responsibility for the rocket attack, Tel Aviv filed a complaint with the United Nations against Beirut. Moreover, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that he held the Lebanese government responsible.
The strikes, the third this year, were aimed at using south Lebanon as an "arena for the exchange of messages," the commander said, adding that the army and other security apparatus "should increase joint efforts to monitor the movements of terrorists and continue tracking them."
Kahwaji also demanded from the army "close cooperation with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon [UNIFIL] as part of the implementation of Resolution 1701." The resolution ended the July 2006 Israeli aggression on the Lebanese soil. The massive Israeli attack, which killed over a thousand, mostly Lebanese civilians, were thwarted by the Hezbollah resistance fighters.
#2
Yah, all israel's problems involve not attacking the non-democratic proxy hard enough. i imagine the dentist sits in Damascus and laughs his ass off at you as we speak.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
He (Medvedev) said Israel is not going to deliver any blows on Iran, as he was assured by Israeli President Shimon Peres during their recent meeting.
[Iran Press TV Latest] Lebanese army chief cautions his forces against Israeli 'schemes' after Tel Aviv blamed Beirut for a terror strike on the Israeli-occupied Palestinian lands. 
