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13 Islamic State members killed, injured in operation, northeast of Baquba
Today's Headlines
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Page 4: Opinion
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1 12:42 Vast Right Wing Conspiracy [1] 
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Page 1: WoT Operations
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Page 2: WoT Background
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Page 3: Non-WoT
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Page 6: Politix
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-Land of the Free
Trump's National Security Strategy marks return to realism
[AsiaTimes] January 20 will mark the end of the first year of the administration of Donald Trump in Washington. President Trump was nominated for and then elected president contrary to the almost unanimous opinion of the media, the pollsters and the political talking heads that those outcomes were impossible. He was also elected to the office by the Electoral College despite having received almost 3 million fewer votes than his opponent.

Efforts on the part of the conspiratorial opposition to characterize the NSS as incendiary and incoherent are meaningless babble. It is nothing of the kind, and any such descriptions are simply manifestations of political malice
Since taking office on January 20, 2017, he has been the object of the unremitting hostility of all the forces that were arrayed against him in 2016 ‐ the Democratic Party, a substantial minority of Republicans, academia, minority voting blocs, the media, most of the federal bureaucracy, and the commentariat. In the face of this massive counterattack, the president has governed with many turns and tumbles, demonstrating his lack of political experience as well as his personal style, which resembles that of a whirling dervish.

His administration is still far from complete ‐ many important posts remain unfilled, partly because of the obstructionism of congressional Democrats. His lack of political experience and that of a network of congressional supporters have meant that he has suffered serious defeats in attempting to forge his domestic programs. He has also supported and signed into law a budget bill that violates not only his own fiscal promises during the campaign, but also, and massively, the presumed dedication of the Republican Party to fiscal responsibility, adding, as it does, more than a trillion dollars to the federal debt.
Continued on Page 49
Posted by: 746 || 01/05/2018 00:00 || Comments || Link || [0 views] Top|| File under:

#1  Carter was uniquely horrible as a President and the Soviets over-extended themselves taking advantage of him. Reagan arrived and easily toppled them.

Obama was horrible as a President and the North Koreans, Venezuelans, ISIS, and Iranians over-extended themselves...
Posted by: rjschwarz || 01/05/2018 12:10 Comments || Top||


Caribbean-Latin America
The axis of catastrophe
One of the underappreciated aspects of the crisis in Iran is its linkage with Venezuela. This collapsing Caribbean nation has a geostrategic alliance with embattled Iran. Some aspects are financial. Venezuela is relying on Iran and Syria to pull it out of the economic mire. "Facing potentially debilitating oil sanctions from the Trump administration, the Caracas government is searching desperately for new ways to get its most valuable commodity ‐ oil ‐ to awaiting buyers. ... The Venezuelan government is working with Iran and Syria to start construction this year on a new refinery in Syria that will process up to 140,000 barrels of oil per day, according to an announcement by Iran’s Research Institute of the Petroleum Industry."

Other ties are military. Caracas closely coordinated with Iran's foreign legion, Hezbollah, to create a dual purpose criminal/terror network in the Americas whose primary target was the USA. What happens to this empire if Hezbollah falls from favor at home?

In its determination to secure a nuclear deal with Iran, the Obama administration derailed an ambitious law enforcement campaign targeting drug trafficking by the Iranian-backed terrorist group Hezbollah, even as it was funneling cocaine into the United States, according to a POLITICO investigation. ...
As a result, the U.S. government lost insight into not only drug trafficking and other criminal activity worldwide, but also into Hezbollah’s illicit conspiracies with top officials in the Iranian, Syrian, Venezuelan and Russian governments ‐ all the way up to presidents Nicolas Maduro, Assad and Putin, according to former task force members and other current and former U.S. officials.

These links mean that risks now rising in each nation feed into the other. Like bankrupts who have guaranteed each other's scams as one declines it will pull the other down. Iran's woes increase Venezuela's -- and vice versa. But the chain of causality doesn't end there. North Korea is also suspected to be part of an internationally distributed WMD program, where Iran takes the lead in missile development and North Korea assumes the responsibility for nuclear warhead design and vehicle testing.

...The danger and opportunity for the Trump administration -- it's a two sided coin -- is that the entire Venezuela-Iran-North Korea axis could suddenly take off in an unpredictable direction. Push down in Tehran and Pyongyang may act up. There's enough complexity in the system to make it difficult to manage. The liberal punditry is finally realizing that you can't predict the future.
Because GIGO, not because prediction is impossible. People routinely predict the future correctly.
But that is exactly what they based the Obama Iran deal upon in the first place: a scenario that never came true. Now they warn: we don't know anything about Iran!The danger and opportunity for the Trump administration -- it's a two sided coin -- is that the entire Venezuela-Iran-North Korea axis could suddenly take off in an unpredictable direction. Push down in Tehran and Pyongyang may act up. There's enough complexity in the system to make it difficult to manage. The liberal punditry is finally realizing that you can't predict the future. But that is exactly what they based the Obama Iran deal upon in the first place: a scenario that never came true. Now they warn: we don't know anything about Iran!
Posted by: g(r)omgoru || 01/05/2018 04:03 || Comments || Link || [0 views] Top|| File under:

#1  Link was b0rked:
People routinely predict the future correctly.
Posted by: SteveS || 01/05/2018 12:51 Comments || Top||

#2  The liberal punditry is finally realizing that you can't predict the future.

If you're economics is marxist then the economy will always seem a mystery.
Posted by: Bright Pebbles || 01/05/2018 14:36 Comments || Top||

#3  Bright Pebbles,
Well said.
Posted by: F. Theremble9645 || 01/05/2018 19:53 Comments || Top||


Economy
Forbes: Can We Escape Trade Disaster In 2018?
[Forbes] While it is natural to use the turn of the calendar as an excuse to take stock of what’s coming, there is additional motivation when it comes to U.S. trade policy in 2018. While a number of trade conflicts were set asimmer during 2017, there was no resolution. Further, in the latter part of the year, President Trump and the Congress set aside their sharp differences over trade in order to unite behind a tax bill; a task that is now complete.

So what to expect in the year ahead? When it comes to U.S. trade policy, there is very little chance that that things will actually go well; optimists may instead hope for a period of quiet neglect. Pessimists have cause to set their imaginations free.

Here, then, are five topics to watch as we plunge into the icy new year:
Posted by: Besoeker || 01/05/2018 07:45 || Comments || Link || [0 views] Top|| File under:

#1  Prepping the battle space to sell out America again (for the children).
Posted by: Procopius2k || 01/05/2018 8:38 Comments || Top||

#2  He is right from a globalist perspective, it is not going to go well for the world. But for America it will be fine, better than fine, it will be great!
Posted by: 49 Pan || 01/05/2018 8:58 Comments || Top||

#3  Fuck Forbes.
Posted by: Raj || 01/05/2018 10:16 Comments || Top||

#4  Forbes is now Chinese-owned.
Posted by: Zhang Fei || 01/05/2018 16:00 Comments || Top||

#5  Forbes.com is a blogging platform like wordpress.com. Anyone can post there.
Posted by: Herb McCoy7309 || 01/05/2018 18:40 Comments || Top||


Strong Jobs Report Catapults Dow Jones Past 25,000
[Townhall] December 2017 ended on a strong economic note. Besides the economy growing at four percent, President Donald J. Trump signed the most extensive tax reform into law on December 22. Consumer coincidence is at a 17-year high. Unemployment is at a near two-decade low.

A CNBC survey that was released before Christmas found that for the first time in 11 years, a majority of those surveyed were optimistic about the economy. The stock market had at least 70 record closings. And jobs growth has been solid. How solid? A quarter of a million new jobs were created in December, which sent the Dow Jones to break 25,000 for the first time ever. Oh, and 2017 also saw the Dow Jones experience a 5,000-point surge, the largest annual gain in its history (via CNBC):
Posted by: Besoeker || 01/05/2018 06:16 || Comments || Link || [1 views] Top|| File under:

#1 
Posted by: Vast Right Wing Conspiracy || 01/05/2018 12:42 Comments || Top||


Israel-Palestine-Jordan
IDF appears to have hit Gaza tunnel in response to mortar attacks
[IsraelTimes] In vague statement, army says it targeted 'significant terror infrastructure,' warns it will strike 'above and below ground'

Shortly after 1 a.m. on Thursday, the Israel Defense Forces announced that its jets had just struck "significant terror infrastructure" in the Gazoo Strip in retaliation for mortar fire on Wednesday.

According to official Paleostinian media, that "significant terror infrastructure" was farmland in the southern Gazoo Strip.

It’s more likely that the target was, in fact, something beneath the farmland ‐ a tunnel. What is less clear is to whom it belonged.

The IDF strike came after three projectiles were fired at the Eshkol region in southern Israel over the course of a few hours on Wednesday and amid a substantial increase in the number of attacks coming from the Gazoo Strip over the past two months.

The IDF would not elaborate on the nature of the "significant terror infrastructure" it targeted.

Last year, IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot responded to criticism that the military was targeting "sand dunes and empty bunkers" in its strikes in Gazoo, telling the Knesset that the IDF is actively thwarting the tunnels and publicly acknowledging for the first time that the army has the technology to do so.

"Every missile or shell we fired was at a valuable target, at underground targets," Eisenkot said in March. "We have developed a capability that allows us to strike them."

On Thursday, the army said it was "prepared for any scenario" and would not allow any breach of Israeli illusory sovereignty.

"The IDF will continue to use all the measures at its disposal, above and below ground, to thwart attacks against Israelis," the military said.

Noticeably missing from the army’s statement about the attack was the nature of the target.

In general, the army names the targets of its retaliatory strikes in Gazoo, which are almost exclusively military positions belonging to the Hamas, one of the armed feet of the Moslem Brüderbung millipede, terrorist group, the rulers of the Gazoo Strip.

As a matter of policy, Israel holds Hamas responsible for any attacks emanating from the coastal enclave. The understanding is that by targeting Hamas, it will spur the terrorist group to rein in more radical elements in Gazoo.

On Wednesday, however, it was reported that the military increasingly saw Hamas as unable to control the other terrorist groups in the Strip, notably the Iran-backed Paleostinian Islamic Jihad
...created after many members of the Egyptian Moslem Brotherhood decided the organization was becoming too moderate. Operations were conducted out of Egypt until 1981 when the group was exiled after the assassination of President Anwar Sadat. They worked out of Gaza until they were exiled to Lebanon in 1987, where they clove tightly to Hezbollah. In 1989 they moved to Damascus, where they remain a subsidiary of Hezbollah...
, which the IDF believes carried out a mortar shell attack last Friday.

The determination by the army indicated that the IDF might be changing its policy and could begin to directly target groups that carry out attacks, rather than only Hamas.

One of the reasons behind the IDF’s assessment that the group was responsible for Friday’s attack is that the same Iranian-made, mass-produced 120mm mortar shells used in the barrage were also launched in the Islamic Jihad’s November 30 attack.

The past month has seen a dramatic increase in the number of rocket and mortar attacks against Israel from the Gazoo Strip, reaching a level not seen since before the 2014 Gazoo war.

Defense minister warns Islamic Jihad: We know you fired Friday’s mortar shells

[IsraelTimes] In Arabic-subtitled video, Liberman says Israel will do 'anything' it must to prevent future attacks, calls on Gazans to convince terror groups to lay down arms.
Posted by: trailing wife || 01/05/2018 00:00 || Comments || Link || [0 views] Top|| File under: Islamic Jihad (Palestian)


Science & Technology
Cyber War: The Fastest Way to Improve Cybersecurity? – Haft of the Spear
Posted by: newc || 01/05/2018 00:00 || Comments || Link || [0 views] Top|| File under:

#1  Not a fan of hack back
I Am a fan of learn attacker characteristic and bleed his memory inel chips through streams they established.

Posted by: newc || 01/05/2018 0:25 Comments || Top||

#2  Why would you expect people to be treated for their destructive behaviors? We don't treat war as war anymore. If an enemy attacked your infrastructure as late as the mid-20th century, you'd hammer them back or surrender. Today we all make excuses not to act accordingly.
Posted by: Procopius2k || 01/05/2018 7:15 Comments || Top||

#3  Expanding the Menu: The Case for CYBERSOC | Small Wars Journal
Posted by: newc || 01/05/2018 12:28 Comments || Top||


Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Totten: Is Iran's Regime About to Fall?
Posted by: newc || 01/05/2018 00:00 || Comments || Link || [0 views] Top|| File under: Govt of Iran

#1  No. But it is an interesting dynamic if you consider what happen to Fascist Italy. Mussolini was involved in a series of costly foreign adventures that soaked up all of the excess capital that could have been used on modernizing home infrastructure and the Italian armed forces.
At some point will Iran just implode under stress?
Posted by: magpie || 01/05/2018 2:07 Comments || Top||

#2  - See: North Korea.

Everyone talks. No one does anything. The regime continues.
Posted by: Procopius2k || 01/05/2018 7:16 Comments || Top||

#3  Don't bother turning to the intelligence community for answers, they've been too busy monitoring Republicans.
Posted by: Besoeker || 01/05/2018 8:48 Comments || Top||

#4  A factor in Iran is the significant different factions which run the country while not getting along with each other.

The military vs the Republican Guard.
The high mullahs vs the lower mullahs.
The republican guard that controls various business vs the republican guard that is underpaid and resents the former.

every country's story is different and Iran is much different from, say Algeria's situation in 2010 or Romania's in 1989.
Posted by: lord garth || 01/05/2018 9:24 Comments || Top||

#5  I have a good feeling about Iran's fall. They have a large number of non-zealots keeping their heads down combined with a generation that went through the meat-grinder of the Iran-Iraq war combined with endless foreign adventures. They also got a good look at how effective American forces can be when motivated.

I wouldn't be surprised to see units stand down rather than fire on the people and if that happens its over.
Posted by: rjschwarz || 01/05/2018 11:34 Comments || Top||


#7  Michael Ledeen has a different take on the Iranian protests.

The current protests started with farmers in a desert city. Their irrigation channels had gone dry due to massive incompetence by the government. The protests spread to other workers and farmers facing hard times across the nation.

Only later did the students in Teheran join in. This makes this revolt more dangerous than the one in 2009.

Al
Posted by: Frozen Al || 01/05/2018 13:27 Comments || Top||

#8  @Frozen Al

One of the first Iranian cities to protest was Qoms (12/28/17). Imagine Texans protesting the federal gov't/Trump. Qoms (center of shiite islamic studies) in rebellion is an indicator that this is definitely not a repeat of 2009.

It goes much deeper this time, and much more rural. The below was cribbed from an Arabian News site.


Twenty points to explain the current Iranian protests:

1 On Tuesday, December 19, the Iranian government announced a new austerity plan.

2 The plan imposed a 50% increase in the price of fuel.

3 The government decided to cancel the monetary support of more than 34 million people.

4 Economists close to President Hassan Rouhani warned that the plan would lead to a societal explosion.

5 Hassan Rouhani snubbed the advice and decided to proceed with the austerity plan. Demonstrations began with economic demands, but quickly turned political.

6 In this same austerity plan, the government decided to increase the budget for military armament.

7 Most of the military armament budget goes to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

8 The IRGC operates on foreign lands, supporting the Houthi militia in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Popular Mobilization Unit in Iraq and supporting the Assad regime in Syria.

9 The number of poverty-stricken individuals under the lifting of subsidies rose from 20 million to 54 million.

10 On Wednesday, December 27, citizens went out on a limited demonstration to demand that the government backtrack on the austerity plans.

11 The demonstration was held in the city of Mashhad, the capital of Khorasan Rizvi province, and security forces treated the protesters with excessive violence.

12 On Thursday morning, thousands of citizens decided to go out in mass demonstrations against the regime in support of the protesters (Qom).

13 Demonstrations began with economic demands such as the restoration of monetary support and the lifting of fuel subsidies.

14 University students and other middle classes joined the demonstrations.

15 Their demands have evolved into political anger related to Iran’s foreign policy.

16 Demonstrators called on the regime to stop supporting terrorist groups abroad and said clearly in the slogans they chanted “Neither Gaza nor Lebanon … my soul is searching for the redemption of Iran.”

17 The massive demonstrations from Khorasan province extended to other provinces including Hamdan, Kermanshah and Tehran.

18 Security forces violently treated demonstrators and tried to disperse them with tear gas and arrested hundreds of them.

19 The clerics in Mashhad specifically called for the suppression of demonstrations by all means.

20 The geographical scope of the demonstrations is expected to expand to include provinces such as Sistan, Baluchistan and Persia, with its capital, Shiraz and Isfahan, which also witnessed massive demonstrations at the weekend (which it has).

Inshallah


Posted by: mossomo || 01/05/2018 17:00 Comments || Top||



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Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has dominated Mexico for six years.
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Meet the Mods
In no particular order...
Steve White
Seafarious
tu3031
badanov
sherry
ryuge
GolfBravoUSMC
Bright Pebbles
trailing wife
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Two weeks of WOT
Fri 2018-01-05
  13 Islamic State members killed, injured in operation, northeast of Baquba
Thu 2018-01-04
  Revolutionary Guards deployed to crush Iran demonstrations
Wed 2018-01-03
  Egypt executes four Islamist extremists over 2015 bomb attack
Tue 2018-01-02
  Pakistan plans takeover of charities run by Lashkar-e-Taiba
Mon 2018-01-01
  Nigeria: Scores Killed in Boko Haram Attacks in Borno, Yobe
Sun 2017-12-31
  Iran protests: Telegram and Instagram restricted
Sat 2017-12-30
  IS says it was behind Saint Petersburg supermarket bombing
Fri 2017-12-29
  Senior Pakistani Taliban leader blown by own explosives in Kunar province
Thu 2017-12-28
  Islamic State claims attack on Shiite center in Kabul, 41 dead
Wed 2017-12-27
  Swede among 'terror' suspects arrested in the Netherlands
Tue 2017-12-26
  Six Islamic State, involved in killing policeman, killed in Kirkuk
Mon 2017-12-25
  ISIS military commission chief killed in US drone strike in Afghanistan
Sun 2017-12-24
  Taliban’s IED expert famous as Osama killed in NDS operation
Sat 2017-12-23
  Terror Attack in Pennsylvania's State Capital?
Fri 2017-12-22
  US drone strike kills Qaeda propaganda chief in Yemen

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