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US told to vacate Shamsi base
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-Signs, Portents, and the Weather-
Will the next world war be between China and the US?
By Max Hastings
Posted by: ryuge || 11/27/2011 07:58 || Comments || Link || E-Mail|| [685 views] Top|| File under:

#1  No. I've thought long about this issue and the term world war simply doesn't apply to anything that happens between the US and China. China doesn't have enough allies and US allies are unlikely to be talked into such madness.

Plus it would likely end fast.
Posted by: Rjschwarz || 11/27/2011 8:16 Comments || Top||

#2  Will the next world Proxy War be between China and the US?

Much like Cold War I, it will feature the play of surrogate states and agents seeking sponsorship in their play across the globe.
Posted by: Procopius2k || 11/27/2011 9:19 Comments || Top||

#3  In that case we've been in a cold war for some time now. We (the US) just aren't acting like it.
Posted by: CrazyFool || 11/27/2011 9:22 Comments || Top||

#4  I'd have to agree. China has been using Proxies (primarily North Korea) for some time and we've allowed them to play that game successfully. The end game is they move openly against Taiwan or Japan goes rogue convinced the US can no longer be trusted to defend them.

Either way its a dangerous game for China.
Posted by: rjschwarz || 11/27/2011 9:27 Comments || Top||

#5  There are a bunch of possibilities, here. From the 1980s forward, the US and China both considered it inevitable; but "things change."

With China's naval build up, India decided that China was their serious threat, and they started to build up as well. And they are right next door, and have come to blows with China before.

This divided China's attention. But things became even more complicated when China recently decided to assert sovereignty over the entire South China Sea, right to the coastlines of all the other countries in the area. This has turned the whole region against China.

This leaves a bunch of possibilities wide open. From major to minor.

1) Sino-Indian ground war, maybe my suggestion of a "demographic war". With some naval engagements. Non-nuclear.

2) Sino-US war. Not just Taiwan, but because of economic crises, with war as more of a distraction. Non-nuclear, but could involve attacks in the US.

3) North Korean aggression or collapse. This could be very violent, or in the latter case, quite peaceful.

4) China decides it wants control of eastern Siberia, because more Chinese live there than Russians. Maybe Mongolia thrown in as well.

5) China against the assembled China Sea nations, mostly island snatching. But Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines could turn this really ugly.

6) Chinese military intervention in Africa, on the side of one of its allies, and in defense of its resource extraction. Likewise in Afghanistan, to protect its (projected) major mining enterprises there.

7) Unknown scenarios 7-20.
Posted by: Anonymoose || 11/27/2011 10:03 Comments || Top||

#6  After we leave Afghanistan, those fun loving Paks go after India and the new PAK ally and primary arms supplier, China, decides it's found a way to deal with all those excess males and divert domestic attention from the rapidly deflating bubble. Game on.
Posted by: Nimble Spemble || 11/27/2011 10:36 Comments || Top||

#7  We (the US) just aren't acting like it

That's because the financial benefits of a cold war haven't gotten to the 'right people' yet.
Posted by: Pappy || 11/27/2011 11:12 Comments || Top||

#8  I understand in the education of the youth of China we are the enemy. That future confrontation is inevitable. They have a big push on for the English language to be learned at this time. China has become an economic powerhouse. They don't have the natural resources so they must tie up all that they can. The race is on now to secure as much as possible to feed the needs of a modern country. Threatening their resources will provoke a quick response from them. Some in their military see this and argue for a more balanced approach to the world. The current leaders enjoy the current situation. When things go bad all will join in an united effort and those more open minded will become silent. So "Will the next war be between China and the US" if their resources are threatened or invaded will they react. We are however locked in an economic war. The costs for what they have done are a terrible burden based on economic growth. Lose growth and everything will choke off. The worst thing they have done is printing money. The second is tying up so much money in gold. The gold sits and just doesn't circulate. All their military production must be maintained and upgraded. So you see I don't view them in a strong position at this time. They must align themselves with others to feed war ambitions. I don't see those bonds. My two cents.
Posted by: Dale || 11/27/2011 13:09 Comments || Top||

#9  Afghan mineral resources aren't that much of a prize. Kazakh and Russian projects can replace all, but aren't part of current development plans because of lack of immediate resource need.

There aren't that many clash points between the US and China. Even Taiwan is moving to associate statehood with the mainland. Trade and cultural integration continues at an exponential pace. Cheap electronics enjoyed by Americans wouldn't be there without Chinese components and cheap labor. Then there is the $1.5 trillion in China holdings of US debt. There isn't a good case for confrontation.
Posted by: Sneamp Splat8837 || 11/27/2011 14:14 Comments || Top||

#10 
That's because the financial benefits of a cold war haven't gotten to the 'right people' yet.


As in getting our Chinese debt cancelled?
Posted by: Abu Uluque || 11/27/2011 15:13 Comments || Top||

#11  Land war between china and India would be minimal because of the horrid terrain between the two.

Also china has no real power projection ability so war inafrica would be more supplying their favorites and providing experts.

I think the war with the us wouldbd primarily cyber warfare and saber rattling u less we dodo merging try out of character.
Posted by: Rjschwarz || 11/27/2011 15:18 Comments || Top||

#12  Don't forget that China has something like 20 million expendable(no women for them) young men.
Posted by: g(r)omgoru || 11/27/2011 15:50 Comments || Top||

#13  ...that's why we inscrutable westerners invented World of Warcraft (et al) and cheap PCs. Now to convince those Chinese mothers to dig basements to keep the world and their sons safe!
Posted by: Procopius2k || 11/27/2011 17:26 Comments || Top||

#14  No need to worry until they feel we can't pay them back.
Posted by: gorb || 11/27/2011 17:43 Comments || Top||

#15  Please, one world war at a time.
WWI- from 1914-1918
WWII - from 1918-1945
WWIII - from ca. 1918-1989 (started with US troops diverted from WWI to fight the Red Army to the collapse of the USSR in 1989). The US 'won' that.
WWIV - what we're in now, started either in 1993 with the 1st WTC bombing or in 2001 with the 2nd.
Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418 || 11/27/2011 17:50 Comments || Top||

#16  The argument or hyperposition that China won't fight the US because of the former's seeming lack of Miltech + Econ, etc. parity or superiority goes agz Chinese history.

IMO the real danger would be a third-party, violent conventional andor nuclear [limited?] mil conflict breaking out, e.g US-Israel versus Iran, Pakistan versus India, DPRK military incident, etc. which will pull in both the US + China agz the other. RUSSIA HAS UNILATERALLY INFERRED AS MUCH WID ITS RECENT WARNING THAT IT MAY FIGHT A "NUCLEAR WAR" [WW3] AGZ THE US-NATO ONE DAY IFF THE VARIOUS "SMALL/LOCAL CONFLICTS",
E.G. CAUCASUS INSURGENCIES, ESCALATE UNCONTROLLABLY.

"Post-US" wannabe Rising China wants sole or joint, PLA-controlled Base Rights [+ trade] ASAP AMAP ALAP to select ports or areas throughout the "First Island" Chain, to which it is currently achieving little to no progress as per the PLA. THIS DESIRE IS EXCLUSIVE OF THE GENERAL ISLAMIST THREAT TO IT + MAINLAND ASIA.

Iff a US-China conflict does occur, China = Iran = North Korea i.e. the burden will be on the US-Allies to come + invade its backyard.

versus

* TOPIX/MILFORUMS > WILL THE ALASKA NATIONAL GUARD BE THERE FOR US?

Local Citizens-Residents of Alaska worry that US federalization of most or vital units of the Alaska Guard + Reserves = ALASKA WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO DEFENSE WHEN THE RUSSIANS, ETAL. = MOTHERLY COMMIE AIRBORNE INVADE ALASKA + UPPER CANADA WID SEVERAL ARMY GROUPS LOOKING TO ARREST SARAH PALIN.

D *** NG IT, IT WASN'T THE NORTH KOREANS AT ALL!

LOL.
Posted by: JosephMendiola || 11/27/2011 19:00 Comments || Top||

#17  Alaskans would like military-trained/experienced STATE DEFENSE FORCES responsible only to the Governor = State Govt, IIUC even in times of national contingency.

The Fed will need the State's formal permission to federalize them.
Posted by: JosephMendiola || 11/27/2011 19:08 Comments || Top||

#18  I'm with Joe in #16.
Posted by: Canuckistan sniper || 11/27/2011 19:17 Comments || Top||

#19  CHINESE MILITARY FORUM > [Financial Review] CHINA MAY TEST ITS POWER.

Beijing mulling its response to US re-engagement in Asia.
Posted by: JosephMendiola || 11/27/2011 19:45 Comments || Top||

#20  AH, WW IV started in 1979.
Posted by: Nimble Spemble || 11/27/2011 19:48 Comments || Top||

#21  Cheap electronics enjoyed by Americans wouldn't be there without Chinese components and cheap labor.

Just sayin', a lot of the cheap components are made in the US and/or Korea and Japan.
Posted by: Thing From Snowy Mountain || 11/27/2011 20:59 Comments || Top||

#22  CHINESE MILITARY FORUM > [Financial Review] CHINA MAY TEST ITS POWER.

Beijing mulling its response to US re-engagement in Asia.


My guess is that this would be a pretext for doing something the Chinese have had in the works for a while, waiting for some American initiative they can label an unacceptable provocation.
Posted by: Zhang Fei || 11/27/2011 21:11 Comments || Top||

#23  As in getting our Chinese debt cancelled?

No.

Contrary to popular belief, the last Cold War wasn't just a fiscal windfall for the "military-industrial complex". Other beneficiaries were academia and think tanks, mostly of liberal bent, and the political institutions that are fellow travelers.

Until the money starts flowing again to the right people, the phrase 'New Cold War' won't see the light of day.
Posted by: Pappy || 11/27/2011 22:03 Comments || Top||


Down Under
Handbook for Muslim students a bad idea
Posted by: ryuge || 11/27/2011 00:00 || Comments || Link || E-Mail|| [291 views] Top|| File under:

#1  The muz tyrannies offer zero accomodation for their religious minorities. Yet those savages demand privileges here. Let them eat pork.
Posted by: Sneamp Splat8837 || 11/27/2011 14:02 Comments || Top||

#2  Notice they don't give simular handbooks to Buddists, Jews, or any other 'religious minority' - only the Muslims.
Which means that muslims are so 'special' (in 'need extra-special help' sort of way) that they need a handbook.
And where does the handbook send them - right into the open arms of Radical Islam.
Posted by: CrazyFool || 11/27/2011 14:10 Comments || Top||

#3  Some ideas are so stupid that only an intellectual accepts it.
Posted by: Jack Salami || 11/27/2011 18:32 Comments || Top||

#4  The soft bigotry of low expectations resides in the House of Liberalism.
Posted by: Shibly || 11/27/2011 18:33 Comments || Top||


Home Front: Culture Wars
Friedrich Nietzsche and His Proto-Nazi Eco-Fascism
Posted by: tipper || 11/27/2011 14:20 || Comments || Link || E-Mail|| [436 views] Top|| File under:

#1  I'll save you the trouble of reading this.

Author is a Christian. Nietzsche hates Christianity. Author uses Hitler's infatuation with Nietzsche to discredit Nietzsche.

Might as well blame Wagner as well.
Posted by: Iblis || 11/27/2011 16:26 Comments || Top||

#2  I thought Nietzsche was already discredited.
Posted by: Pappy || 11/27/2011 22:05 Comments || Top||


"Israel and 'Pinkwashing'": What Was the New York Times Thinking?
Posted by: tipper || 11/27/2011 14:15 || Comments || Link || E-Mail|| [291 views] Top|| File under:


Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Guns Better Investment Than Gold?
At least someone is making money in these difficult times. Arms dealers in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley are making out like, well, bandits as unrest in Syria sends black market gun prices through the roof says this story in Lebanon’s Daily Star. Rocket grenade launchers appear to be the hottest investment grade item, with prices more than sextupling from $400 to $2500 in recent months. Kalashnikovs and M16s are also up sharply, with 75 percent appreciation on the Russian guns and 100 percent on the US model.

Perhaps more investments in Lebanese arms dealer funds could rescue US state and municipal pension funds; those are the kind of returns states like New York, Illinois, California and Rhode Island need to avoid massive service and benefit cuts in the years ahead.

But what this news really means, of course, is that more and more people in Syria and Lebanon are preparing for all out civil war. Religious and ethnic divides half forgotten during the long decades when the dictatorship was secure are now beginning to revive as the Assad clan looks weak.

This is the pattern I saw at work in Yugoslavia and the Caucasus twenty years ago as ethnic groups geared up to butcher their neighbors and drive them from their homes; I will never forget the night a Georgian poet asked me how much guns cost on the Istanbul black market; he was arming himself against what he called the “Abkhazian menace.”

I made a note to myself at that time: when poets buy guns, tourist season is over. They are buying them now in Damascus; something wicked this way comes.
Posted by: tipper || 11/27/2011 14:56 || Comments || Link || E-Mail|| [394 views] Top|| File under:

#1  A friend told me a few years ago that his stocks, 401K, real estate and savings had all been wiped out. Only thing he owned that had gone up in value was his gold and his guns, and from then on his sole investment strategy would be guns.

Wine is also a good investment in a socialist economy. If it goes up you make money. If it goes down you drink it.
Posted by: Iblis || 11/27/2011 15:09 Comments || Top||

#2  Well, of course. If one person with gold but no guns meets another with guns but no gold, what do you think will happen?
Posted by: Eric Jablow || 11/27/2011 15:57 Comments || Top||

#3  Well, of course. If one person with gold but no guns meets another with guns but no gold, what do you think will happen?

Survivalist reality TV show?
Posted by: badanov || 11/27/2011 16:28 Comments || Top||

#4  Survivalist reality TV show?

More like: "Badges? We ain't got no badges. We don't need no badges. I don't have to show you any stinking badges."
Posted by: Eric Jablow || 11/27/2011 16:46 Comments || Top||

#5  If one person with gold but no guns meets another with guns but no gold, what do you think will happen?
Interesting question. The next and even more interesting question is:
If one person with guns (with or without gold) meets many more people with many more guns, what do you think will happen?
Take that a few steps further...
Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418 || 11/27/2011 17:44 Comments || Top||

#6  Interesting question.

I think Thomas Hobbes already answered that.
Posted by: Pappy || 11/27/2011 22:06 Comments || Top||


Arab Spring, Iranian Windfall
Posted by: ryuge || 11/27/2011 08:04 || Comments || Link || E-Mail|| [291 views] Top|| File under:

#1  ...80–90% of the world's Muslims are Sunni and 5 –20% are Shia Differences in beliefs doesn't make for entirely chummy relationships between Shia and Sunnai.

Iran is largely Shia. It's doubtful Iran will be in the catbird seat anytime soon at the center of a Muslim caliphate. And there will be a hiccup in their nuclear ambitions at some point and many Arabs and others will breath a sigh of relief.
Posted by: JohnQC || 11/27/2011 8:42 Comments || Top||

#2  Can't think of a bigger curse than having to run Iraq.
Posted by: Durnham Freebody || 11/27/2011 13:41 Comments || Top||

#3  Islamic prophecy includes a period of unity in the final war against disbelievers. After that, muz go at each other until the end of days.

Frankly, Erdogan is positioning Turkey as a sunni-shiite broker, with unity being the prize. He doesn't want ayatollah power continued in Syria because it is exercised as a rival factor.

Our lamebrain pundits have yet to perceive that calipha restoration is in the works. Western Civilization has the capacity to stop an entity that will result in hundreds of millions of casualties in islam's perma-war.

The indifference to the certainty of nuclear tipped ICBMs aimed at the US homeland, while "pre-emption" is supposed to frame US foreign policy, is staggering. Everyone is prisoner to the nation-building/redeemer-nation rhetorical fictions. Not enough people are being killed in the GWOT. Piecemeal killings need to be replaced with wholesale slaughter. The problem is: their lives.
Posted by: Sneamp Splat8837 || 11/27/2011 14:23 Comments || Top||

#4  The race is on, will Islam collapse with or without an associated nuclear holocaust? Islam collapses either way.
Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418 || 11/27/2011 17:54 Comments || Top||



Who's in the News
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3Govt of Syria
1Boko Haram
1Commies
1al-Qaeda in North Africa
1Hamas
1Islamic State of Iraq
1al-Qaeda in Pakistan
1Moro Islamic Liberation Front

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Two weeks of WOT
Sun 2011-11-27
  US told to vacate Shamsi base
Sat 2011-11-26
  Pakistan stops NATO supplies after raid kills up to 28
Fri 2011-11-25
  47 Syrians Dead, Including 29 Civilians, as Homs Clashes Rage
Thu 2011-11-24
  Police continue attacks on protesters, Tahrir chants for field marshal to go
Wed 2011-11-23
  Yemen's president signs power transfer deal
Tue 2011-11-22
  Yemen Opposition: Saleh Agrees to Sign Peace Plan. Really.
Mon 2011-11-21
  Colombia Farc rebel radio station 'shut down' by army
Sun 2011-11-20
  Libya: 'the executioner' Abdullah al-Senussi captured
Sat 2011-11-19
  Saif al-Islam Gaddafi captured in Libya
Fri 2011-11-18
  Sufi Mohammad's sons acquitted by Swat ATC
Thu 2011-11-17
  Saleh again refuses to sign power transfer
Wed 2011-11-16
  Missile raid targeted top Shabaab leaders
Tue 2011-11-15
  Suspected suicide bomber killed near Afghan loya jirga site
Mon 2011-11-14
  Syria Calls for Urgent Arab Summit
Sun 2011-11-13
  Syrian brownshirts storm Saudi embassy

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