No. I've thought long about this issue and the term world war simply doesn't apply to anything that happens between the US and China. China doesn't have enough allies and US allies are unlikely to be talked into such madness.
I'd have to agree. China has been using Proxies (primarily North Korea) for some time and we've allowed them to play that game successfully. The end game is they move openly against Taiwan or Japan goes rogue convinced the US can no longer be trusted to defend them.
There are a bunch of possibilities, here. From the 1980s forward, the US and China both considered it inevitable; but "things change."
With China's naval build up, India decided that China was their serious threat, and they started to build up as well. And they are right next door, and have come to blows with China before.
This divided China's attention. But things became even more complicated when China recently decided to assert sovereignty over the entire South China Sea, right to the coastlines of all the other countries in the area. This has turned the whole region against China.
This leaves a bunch of possibilities wide open. From major to minor.
1) Sino-Indian ground war, maybe my suggestion of a "demographic war". With some naval engagements. Non-nuclear.
2) Sino-US war. Not just Taiwan, but because of economic crises, with war as more of a distraction. Non-nuclear, but could involve attacks in the US.
3) North Korean aggression or collapse. This could be very violent, or in the latter case, quite peaceful.
4) China decides it wants control of eastern Siberia, because more Chinese live there than Russians. Maybe Mongolia thrown in as well.
5) China against the assembled China Sea nations, mostly island snatching. But Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines could turn this really ugly.
6) Chinese military intervention in Africa, on the side of one of its allies, and in defense of its resource extraction. Likewise in Afghanistan, to protect its (projected) major mining enterprises there.
After we leave Afghanistan, those fun loving Paks go after India and the new PAK ally and primary arms supplier, China, decides it's found a way to deal with all those excess males and divert domestic attention from the rapidly deflating bubble. Game on.
I understand in the education of the youth of China we are the enemy. That future confrontation is inevitable. They have a big push on for the English language to be learned at this time. China has become an economic powerhouse. They don't have the natural resources so they must tie up all that they can. The race is on now to secure as much as possible to feed the needs of a modern country. Threatening their resources will provoke a quick response from them. Some in their military see this and argue for a more balanced approach to the world. The current leaders enjoy the current situation. When things go bad all will join in an united effort and those more open minded will become silent. So "Will the next war be between China and the US" if their resources are threatened or invaded will they react. We are however locked in an economic war. The costs for what they have done are a terrible burden based on economic growth. Lose growth and everything will choke off. The worst thing they have done is printing money. The second is tying up so much money in gold. The gold sits and just doesn't circulate. All their military production must be maintained and upgraded. So you see I don't view them in a strong position at this time. They must align themselves with others to feed war ambitions. I don't see those bonds. My two cents.
Afghan mineral resources aren't that much of a prize. Kazakh and Russian projects can replace all, but aren't part of current development plans because of lack of immediate resource need.
There aren't that many clash points between the US and China. Even Taiwan is moving to associate statehood with the mainland. Trade and cultural integration continues at an exponential pace. Cheap electronics enjoyed by Americans wouldn't be there without Chinese components and cheap labor. Then there is the $1.5 trillion in China holdings of US debt. There isn't a good case for confrontation.
Please, one world war at a time.
WWI- from 1914-1918
WWII - from 1918-1945
WWIII - from ca. 1918-1989 (started with US troops diverted from WWI to fight the Red Army to the collapse of the USSR in 1989). The US 'won' that.
WWIV - what we're in now, started either in 1993 with the 1st WTC bombing or in 2001 with the 2nd.
The argument or hyperposition that China won't fight the US because of the former's seeming lack of Miltech + Econ, etc. parity or superiority goes agz Chinese history.
IMO the real danger would be a third-party, violent conventional andor nuclear [limited?] mil conflict breaking out, e.g US-Israel versus Iran, Pakistan versus India, DPRK military incident, etc. which will pull in both the US + China agz the other. RUSSIA HAS UNILATERALLY INFERRED AS MUCH WID ITS RECENT WARNING THAT IT MAY FIGHT A "NUCLEAR WAR" [WW3] AGZ THE US-NATO ONE DAY IFF THE VARIOUS "SMALL/LOCAL CONFLICTS",
E.G. CAUCASUS INSURGENCIES, ESCALATE UNCONTROLLABLY.
"Post-US" wannabe Rising China wants sole or joint, PLA-controlled Base Rights [+ trade] ASAP AMAP ALAP to select ports or areas throughout the "First Island" Chain, to which it is currently achieving little to no progress as per the PLA. THIS DESIRE IS EXCLUSIVE OF THE GENERAL ISLAMIST THREAT TO IT + MAINLAND ASIA.
Iff a US-China conflict does occur, China = Iran = North Korea i.e. the burden will be on the US-Allies to come + invade its backyard.
* TOPIX/MILFORUMS > WILL THE ALASKA NATIONAL GUARD BE THERE FOR US?
Local Citizens-Residents of Alaska worry that US federalization of most or vital units of the Alaska Guard + Reserves = ALASKA WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO DEFENSE WHEN THE RUSSIANS, ETAL. = MOTHERLY COMMIE AIRBORNE INVADE ALASKA + UPPER CANADA WID SEVERAL ARMY GROUPS LOOKING TO ARREST SARAH PALIN.
Contrary to popular belief, the last Cold War wasn't just a fiscal windfall for the "military-industrial complex". Other beneficiaries were academia and think tanks, mostly of liberal bent, and the political institutions that are fellow travelers.
Until the money starts flowing again to the right people, the phrase 'New Cold War' won't see the light of day.
Notice they don't give simular handbooks to Buddists, Jews, or any other 'religious minority' - only the Muslims.
Which means that muslims are so 'special' (in 'need extra-special help' sort of way) that they need a handbook.
And where does the handbook send them - right into the open arms of Radical Islam.
At least someone is making money in these difficult times. Arms dealers in Lebanons Bekaa Valley are making out like, well, bandits as unrest in Syria sends black market gun prices through the roof says this story in Lebanons Daily Star. Rocket grenade launchers appear to be the hottest investment grade item, with prices more than sextupling from $400 to $2500 in recent months. Kalashnikovs and M16s are also up sharply, with 75 percent appreciation on the Russian guns and 100 percent on the US model.
Perhaps more investments in Lebanese arms dealer funds could rescue US state and municipal pension funds; those are the kind of returns states like New York, Illinois, California and Rhode Island need to avoid massive service and benefit cuts in the years ahead.
But what this news really means, of course, is that more and more people in Syria and Lebanon are preparing for all out civil war. Religious and ethnic divides half forgotten during the long decades when the dictatorship was secure are now beginning to revive as the Assad clan looks weak.
This is the pattern I saw at work in Yugoslavia and the Caucasus twenty years ago as ethnic groups geared up to butcher their neighbors and drive them from their homes; I will never forget the night a Georgian poet asked me how much guns cost on the Istanbul black market; he was arming himself against what he called the Abkhazian menace.
I made a note to myself at that time: when poets buy guns, tourist season is over. They are buying them now in Damascus; something wicked this way comes.
A friend told me a few years ago that his stocks, 401K, real estate and savings had all been wiped out. Only thing he owned that had gone up in value was his gold and his guns, and from then on his sole investment strategy would be guns.
Wine is also a good investment in a socialist economy. If it goes up you make money. If it goes down you drink it.
More like: "Badges? We ain't got no badges. We don't need no badges. I don't have to show you any stinking badges."
Posted by: Eric Jablow ||
11/27/2011 16:46 Comments ||
If one person with gold but no guns meets another with guns but no gold, what do you think will happen?
Interesting question. The next and even more interesting question is:
If one person with guns (with or without gold) meets many more people with many more guns, what do you think will happen?
Take that a few steps further...
...8090% of the world's Muslims are Sunni and 5 20% are Shia Differences in beliefs doesn't make for entirely chummy relationships between Shia and Sunnai.
Iran is largely Shia. It's doubtful Iran will be in the catbird seat anytime soon at the center of a Muslim caliphate. And there will be a hiccup in their nuclear ambitions at some point and many Arabs and others will breath a sigh of relief.
Islamic prophecy includes a period of unity in the final war against disbelievers. After that, muz go at each other until the end of days.
Frankly, Erdogan is positioning Turkey as a sunni-shiite broker, with unity being the prize. He doesn't want ayatollah power continued in Syria because it is exercised as a rival factor.
Our lamebrain pundits have yet to perceive that calipha restoration is in the works. Western Civilization has the capacity to stop an entity that will result in hundreds of millions of casualties in islam's perma-war.
The indifference to the certainty of nuclear tipped ICBMs aimed at the US homeland, while "pre-emption" is supposed to frame US foreign policy, is staggering. Everyone is prisoner to the nation-building/redeemer-nation rhetorical fictions. Not enough people are being killed in the GWOT. Piecemeal killings need to be replaced with wholesale slaughter. The problem is: their lives.
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