Israeli intelligence predicts fall of Jordan's Hashemite kingdom
From Geostrategy-direct, subscription.
JERUSALEM — Israel's intelligence community has determined that stability is declining in Egypt and Jordan. The two countries, which have peace agreements with Israel, are considered as among the most powerful states in the Middle East. Egypt and Jordan both have air forces based on U.S. platforms...
Egypt also has the Muslim Brotherhood and its children, who'll likely displace Mubarak in the sweet by and by. Jordan's got Zarqa, home of Zarqawi and lots of Zark wannabes. Of the two, I'd say Jordan's got more of a chance that Egypt, since Abdullah is a young, vigorous fellow and the Jordanian courts are willing to hang people. Hosni's heavily into Grecian Formula and would be in a nursing home in any rational country.
"I don't want to be a prophet," said Maj. Gen. Yair Naveh, head of Israel military's Central Command. "But I don't think there will be another king after Abdullah."
Maybe not, but he's a young fellow. Got a lot of miles left on him, and the Gordian Knot's been cut. Ten years from now the Middle East is going to look quite a bit different, even if only the trends in place continue. At age 78 come this May, Hosni probably won't be around to see it.
Naveh, who meets regularly with senior Jordanian military commanders, said 80 percent of Jordan's population was Palestinian. In a lecture at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs on Feb. 22, Naveh, referring to intelligence assessments, said the strengthening of Hamas and Al Qaida-aligned groups would eventually end Hashemite rule in Jordan.
Bad thing. Egypt is going hostile, and if Jordan falls to the Paleos, then Israel will be squeezed from all sides, which would be the Plan by al Q, Iran and clients, and all other hostiles to Israel.
On the other hand, Jordan's got Israel on one side and a potentially stable Iraq on the other side, and a potentially stable post-Assad Syria to the north of them.
"There is already a Palestinian majority [in Jordan]," Naveh said. "There are ties to Hamas. In another few years, there will be a great strengthening of Hamas in Jordan."
They are on a roll, as long as Iran is funding them. Take Iran out of the equation, and things take a different turn.
At some point within that 10-year window I mentioned, Iran will be out of the equation. I'm not sure if Soddy Arabia will be, but things will also be different there, since the Soddy King Abdullah is approximately the same age as Hosni, and I think his crown prince is only a year or two younger. I'd call it a race against time, with time probably favoring us, if not on our side.
It was the first time in decades that a senior Israeli military or intelligence official publicly predicted the demise of the Hashemite kingdom. Naveh did not offer a timetable.
This is quite a thing to say in public.
Officials said military intelligence has envisioned a long-term Islamic threat against Egypt and Jordan that would affect the military balance with Israel. The Islamic opposition would hamper Hashemite rule in Jordan as well as efforts by Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to transfer power to his son, Gamal, they said.
If Egypt is really in on this, they need our money dried up to them.
Last week, two senior military commanders discussed these assessments in public forums, provoking diplomatic protests from unspecified nations.
Jordan is one of them, heh.
Later, officials said Israel had raised concerns over the future of Abdullah's regime during a strategic dialogue with the United States in late 2005. They said Israel also reported a decline in the stability of the regimes in Egypt, Syria and the Palestinian Authority. "These things are known," said Israeli opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu, after an intelligence briefing on Feb. 23. "We don't need the generals to know this."
Everybody needs to know this. Of course you will not hear it on the MSM.
On Feb. 22, Deputy Chief of Staff Maj. Gen. Moshe Kaplinski told a gathering of industrialists in Haifa that Mubarak was losing his authority. Kaplinski referred to the increasing strength of the Muslim Brotherhood and the deteriorating health of the Egyptian president.
Inverse proportional relationship.
... "Also in Egypt, there are signs of wavering of the regime," Kaplinski said. "The entire area is very dynamic and highlighted by a lack of certainty."
Dynamic is a kind word for it, and lack of certainty is an understatement.
Hours later, Israeli Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz and Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Dan Halutz released a joint statement that described Jordan's future as bright. Officials said Naveh would also send an apology to Jordan. Kaplinski was not publicly rebuked.
Made nice, but the cat's out of the bag.
I'd go with the bright future scenario for Jordan, for the reasons I outlined above. Egypt's always been a basket case.
"There has been a drastic change in the assessment by military intelligence over the last few weeks," an official said. "Military intelligence was surprised by the Hamas victory [in Palestinian Legislative Council elections] and the significant rise of the Brotherhood in Egypt. We could be witnessing the formation of an Islamic ring around Israel, and the military feels it must provide warning."
Responsible to state, frightening in its implications.
I'm not overjoyed by the Hamas victory, but I'm not as surprised as the Israelis seem to be. Surely they could see Fatah splitting into two competing factions, fighting over the boodle before they got it? But Hamas has its own built-in problems. First, they're no more immune to corruption than Fatah. The Hamas bigs live just as large. Second, Meshaal hasn't set foot in Paleostine in years. He lives in Damascus and flits around to Beirut and occasionally Teheran. Those are his owners, not the Paleostinians, and he's looking out for his owners' interests. There's not a solution to that problem since he's likely to eat a few feet of missile if he comes back and a bus booms.
Naveh said Israel faces the prospect of an Islamic takeover in such Arab countries as Iraq, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority. This could result in the revival of a hostile eastern front against the Jewish state, particularly following of an expected U.S. military withdrawal from Iraq in 2007.
I have a feeling that we won't be going anywhere, given unfinished business in Iran.
Officials said Al Qaida and Hamas could consolidate the Arab eastern front. Abu Mussib Al Zarqawi, a Jordanian national who heads the Al Qaida network in Iraq, has been recruiting Palestinians to establish a presence along the Israeli-Jordanian frontier. Over the past two years, Jordan has captured dozens of suspected Al Zarqawi operatives accused of planning attacks against Israeli and U.S. interests.
Zark started out trying to overthrow the Hashemite monarchy. Al-Tawhid, I'm guessing, is still in business, just not getting quite as much attention from the boss.
Naveh said Israel's military has already detected signs of an Al Zarqawi presence in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. He said Al Zarqawi has sought to build a support infrastructure that would eventually recruit Palestinians for mass-casualty attacks against Israel.
Getting ready for the Big Show against Israel.
"Al Qaida is trying to establish awareness in the Gaza Strip," Naveh said. "The next stage is for terrorism. I don't think Zarqawi will bring terrorists to Gaza. He doesn't have to. What he can do is exploit Hamas and take it [attacks] to another level."
IMHO, we are seeing the greatest threat to Israel forming right before our eyes. The key to so many things---disasters as well as solutions---is Iran and how to deal with the M²s.
Posted by: Alaska Paul 2006-03-04