Meryl Yourish: what happens after Arafat expires?
Arafat dies. Then comes the civil war that the Pals have been avoiding. There will be a bloody struggle for control of the West Bank and Gaza. I donât believe a single leader will emerge. I think there will be two or three factions that will try to work together, or at least say they will. Judging by past history, the consensus will break down early and often, leading to more civil wars.
Iâd expect one long, continuous multiyear conflict, with factions combining and dividing frequently . . . sort of like Congo or Liberia with more sand and fewer trees.
In the meantime, Arab leaders who have been funneling blood money to the terrorists will not be able to support a single leader the way they have supported Arafat. It may break the consensus between the Arab states, which have always had a fragile relationship in spite of claims to the contrary. . . .
You could even see different Arab states openly supporting different Palestinian factions, making the Paleo Civil War into a proxy conflict between different Arab states.
Can you hear the bells tolling? Theyâre ringing the death knell of the status quo.
Thatâs good. Instability is not a bug, itâs a feature.
The Saudis, the Egyptians, the Jordanians and the Syrians are shaking in their sandals. Israelis arenât afraid of the chaos that will erupt. It can be no worse than what theyâve suffered these past three years. But the current Arab leaders are in for a world of trouble. Once their people stop focusing on the plight of the Palestinians, the state of their own countries will finally register on the vast unwashed massesâas Iraq inches closer to being the only Arab nation with democratic rule.
Posted by: Mike 2003-10-09