Is Kamala Harris A Possible Betting Arbitrage Opportunity?
Another Raj original. :-)
I mentioned Ladbrokes betting lines for the Presidential election recently and I don't know how many of you have interest in it, but I'd like post on something that I think is intriguing and want to run by any of the interested.

One aside - I already have $1,000 straight up on Trump with a client and he left odds on the table to boot (see the link - a Trump bet means $8 on him now gets you $13 when he wins), so that bet is set. He's a huge liberal who may or may not honor the bet (more likely than not?), and I did offer to make the bet lower a few times. A bet's a bet, so I'll report back in if / when that check clears.

Looking further down the list past the two obvious candidates, Kamala Harris (black broad with political seasoning that doesn't include Willie Brown's salty dried loads per se - the obvious kowtow to the mob selection) at 100 - 1 odds made me wonder, and after a few minutes I came up with this. What if two things happen, and I believe will have more than some probability of happening - say Kamala gets the VP slot and then Biden has to drop out because he's a drooling, babbling doofus. Suppose if Kamala then becomes the presidential nominee (NYT / WaPo and everyone else will have the pom-poms out 24/7 until 11/3), won't the odds shift massively away from 100-1 and something like (hell, I don't know) 3-1 odds at best? That number can be argued but you get the point. If you're the gambling sort with semi to moderate risk tolerance, doesn't this one look pretty good to you?

So with those odds, suppose I take a $100 flier on her at current odds? I would stand to win $10,000 and then those two events happen to get to those 3-1 odds. If a bettor / punter wanted to win $10,000 on her, then they're willing to bet $3,333 for the privilege. What I'd love to do (if possible) is figure out how to take my original bet of $100, now worth about $3,333 to someone out there for a little bit less (I'd do it for $3,000 just to have a number on that one) just to take it off my hands.

I do not see Trump losing this election and you now know why. If I could pull this other bet off the worst I'll do is a net $900 win and there's a lot of upside involved if it works. For me, it's a mental diversion from the constant, unyielding bombardment about how Wuhan / Covid-19 will STILL KILL US ALL!

Thoughts? Am I all wet here?
Posted by: Raj 2020-07-25