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| Axis of Evil |
| Turks threaten: 10,000 fighters in Kirkuk |
| 2002-12-20 |
| As the international community's attention has focused on the Iraqi opposition's efforts to take charge of the post-Saddam era, uncertainty about the nature and direction of a liberated Iraq has provoked anxiety in the regional countries, including and especially Turkey. In particular, Turkey, fearing post-Saddam Hussein instability (and possibly sensing the opportunity of achieving a long-desired strategic objective) has been provoked into issuing a recent warning to Iraqi Kurds: should armed Kurdish groups based in northern Iraq attempt to take control of oil-rich Kirkuk in the aftermath of regime change, the Turkish government will consider it grounds for an attack by Turkish forces on the Iraqi Kurds. Kirkuk is an Iraqi city under the current control of the Iraqi government and one to which both Turkey and the Iraqi Kurds have arguable claim. As a northern neighbor of Iraq sharing a long border with that country, in the contemporary era Turkey has always been concerned about political developments in Iraq - especially in its Kurdish region. Being located along the southern part of Turkey housing its rebellious Kurds, Turkey has been fearful of the aggravating impact of an autonomous or, even worse, of an independent Kurdish region in the northern part of Iraq. Without a doubt, such developments have had an encouraging effect on Turkey's dissatisfied Kurds, whose armed or unarmed political groups have long sought autonomy or independence from Turkey. Such political activities have been Turkey's major source of internal instability, while posing a serious threat to its territorial integrity. Ankara has had to deploy about 200,000 troops in its eastern region mainly dominated by Kurds to ensure its control over that region and to prevent its secession from the country. Since the emergence of the Kurdish-run region in the northern part of Iraq in the aftermath of the 1991 Persian Gulf War, fear of the latter scenarios have justified the concentration of the Turkish military forces along the Turkish-Iraqi joint border. Accusing the Iraqi Kurds' political groups of giving a safe haven in their territories to Turkey's main armed Kurdish group, the PKK, on many occasions, the Turkish military has since crossed the border into northern Iraq for the declared purposes of destroying the PKK bases there or of chasing its militants escaping Turkey into Iraq. While there has been an element of truth in Ankara's justifications, it is no secret that it has also sought to increase its influence in Iraq's Kurdish region by having a degree of military presence in that region or in its close proximity. This objective has also been evident in Ankara's parallel efforts to pit against each other the two major Iraqi Kurdish groups, the Patriotic Union and the Democratic Party of Kurdistan, by backing the latter in its rivalry with the former. Yet, beside the mentioned reasons, Ankara's military activities have also sought to prepare grounds for possible "unification" of Kirkuk with Turkey, should the opportunity arise. The Turks have had a territorial claim to that city since the fall of the Ottoman Empire in the early 1920s. Undoubtedly, the heavy financial burden of imported fuel has made the Turks interested in oil-rich Kirkuk located in the vicinity of the Iraqi-Turkish border. Turkey has based its claims to Kirkuk on "historical" and "ethnic" grounds: After the fall of the Ottoman Empire in the wake of World War I, the division of its vast territory in the Middle East by Britain and France led to an intentional "historical injustice". According to the Turks, Kirkuk was part of Turkey proper, but the two victorious European powers intentionally included Kirkuk in the newly-created Iraq in order to deny Turkey, a losing power of World Ware I, access to fuel to create a major handicap for its economy. The existence in that city and its proximity of Turkmens, whom the Turks consider as their kin, has provided an ethnic ground for their claim. Against this background, Ankara is concerned about a post-Saddam Iraq run by the Iraqi opposition, including its Kurdish faction, which may well lead to the dissolution of the country and the rise of an independent Kurdish state in its northern part. Despite their claimed consensus over the future of Iraq as declared at the end of the recent London conference, the ideological, political, ethnic and religious incompatibility of the various Iraqi opposition groups create a realistic, although not necessarily inevitable, ground for division of their country along ethnic, religious and/or political lines. Given the fact that the two Kurdish groups running the Iraqi Kurdish region form two out of the three militarily significant Iraqi opposition groups, they are in a position to consider the establishment of an independent state should the situation become suitable for that option. That military capability would also enable them to expand their control over Kirkuk, formerly a city with a significant Kurdish population, and even over Mosul, another oil-rich Iraqi city close to Kirkuk. Being located near the Kurdish-controlled region, the two cities are well within the reach of the armed Kurdish groups. The rise of a strong autonomous or independent Kurdish region with a potentially strong oil-driven economy, which could help it form a significant military force, would be a threat to the territorial integrity of all its neighbors with Kurdish minorities (Iran, Syria and Turkey). Particularly, this would be a serious threat to Turkey, a country with a rebellious Kurdish population of about 15 million. Moreover, a feasible inclusion of Kirkuk into an independent Kurdistan would make its "unification" with Turkey an impossible scenario. Hence the increasing possibility of an American-assisted regime change in Iraq is not a source of jubilation in Turkey. This will remain the case so long as it is not clear whether a post-Saddam Iraq will create a chaotic situation to help Turkey justify its putting a hand on Kirkuk and deploying its troops inside Iraqi Kurdistan along its border to contain any undesirable developments there. Another possibility is a resulting power vacuum that would help Iraqi Kurds include the strategically important Kirkuk in their territory - only to endanger Turkey's territorial integrity with their independent state. Good backround on Turkey's worries and possible actions. |
| Posted by:Steve |