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| Middle East |
| Iraqi Tribes pose wild card if U.S. fights Saddam |
| 2003-01-05 |
| Right off the bat, can we stop using the "if" stuff? Its insulting. By Neil MacFarquhar The New York Times MOSUL, Iraq — Sheik Talal Salim al-Khalidi, the portly chieftain of the Bani Khalid tribe, stomped through a farming hamlet in his fief on the broad, flat Mosul plains, gloating that the mud oozing underfoot heralded an auspicious sign in the face of a possible U.S. attack. "God is fair. Whenever we face some kind of oppression, he compensates us with something else," proclaimed the sheik, wearing a headdress, a gray suit and a ground-length flowing gray wool cloak edged in gold. Three men armed with Kalashnikovs and one with a machine gun dogged his every footstep. When I first read this, I started humming the theme to "The Beverly Hillbillys" (and up from the ground comes a bubblin crude....... "The same thing happened in December 1998, when the Americans were bombing us; we had heavy rains that year," he said, recalling a bountiful harvest. Well dang buddy, we should come by more often then! Hows your palm pilot look for say around next month or so? Intensely devout, armed and nationalistic, the storied tribes of Iraq have played a pivotal role in controlling the country under the Ottomans, the British, the monarchy and especially Saddam Hussein. They have remained the ultimate swing voters in the brutal politics of the Middle East. Iraq's tribes are under increased scrutiny as the Bush administration casts about for some credible force that can help it oust Saddam. The country is home to about 150 major tribes, which break down into about 2,000 smaller clans. The largest number more than 1 million people, the smallest a few thousand. Of the larger groups, roughly 30 to 35 are believed to have a significant role in controlling Iraq. The tribal formula worked for the United States in Afghanistan last year. Cash payments persuaded chieftains to abandon the Taliban. There has been talk of similar payments in Iraq, but few expect it to be quite so simple here. Iraqi opposition figures interviewed in London say the United States is working hard to forge some sort of tribal link, meeting with chieftains in neighboring countries to see if they can influence their Iraqi cousins. All major tribes in Iraq have related branches in Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the other Gulf states and Turkey, although under Quranic prescriptions, loyalty to the national tribal leader trumps relations across borders, no matter how extensive. "We can talk about the father of the father of the father and all their fathers back 1,600 years," Talal said. But ask us what the difference is between AC and DC electricity, and we'll look at you like the RCA victor dog. The question hanging over the tribes now is how deep their professed loyalty runs. They could become a nightmare for any U.S. force penetrating Iraq, a patriotic guerrilla army spread throughout the country. Talal, echoing other tribal chiefs, said he had placed a request with the local Baath Party leader in Mosul for heavier arms, like rocket-propelled grenades, anti-aircraft guns and anti-tank weapons to help fight the Americans, but he has yet to receive a response. Saddam has worked diligently in recent years to woo the tribes, dispensing cash, cars, arms, schools and other bounty to assure their loyalty. At the same time, those who failed to kowtow, or worse, plotted rebellions, have been brutally suppressed, their chiefs killed, replaced or driven into exile, their houses destroyed, their crops burned. Opposition figures in London report that Saddam summoned the chiefs of the southern tribes to Baghdad three months ago and demanded that they vow not to repeat the 1991 uprisings against him that followed the Persian Gulf War. Now, think about that for a second. Since when does a supreme dictator demand a "vow"? The tribes could also be waiting for the right moment to rise up against the Baghdad government, though if they are, they are understandably not advertising it. Hello My name is Mr. Solo from the CIA. My friends in the northern alliance said you might be looking to increase your holdings and position here in Boogerglop Iraq. If you like you are more than welcome to call them and check my references, Im sure they will give a glowing account of how we were able to work together during the recent unpleasantness. "You cannot ignore them because they are an important element of the government," said one Western envoy in Baghdad. "But you cannot expect the tribes alone to change the regime in Iraq." The tribes slice across the society along a different axis than the traditional Iraqi divisions between Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds, with some tribes including Sunni, Shiite and even Christian members. Pride of place naturally goes to Saddam Hussein's tribe, the Tikritis, whose members fill many senior government positions, as well as important posts in security organizations and the presidential guard. Tikritis = Taliban. First up against the wall when the revolution comes. The Baath Party, which came to power in 1968 with Saddam as a vice president, painted the tribes as outdated, with loyalty owed to the state and the president rather than to the tribe and the chief. Even the use of tribal names was banned. (Another explanation for the policy was that it was to disguise the predominance of Saddam's tribe in the government.) Things began changing in the 1980s, when the government needed soldiers for the fight against Iran, and the tribes obliged. But it was after Baghdad lost control of large swaths of the country in the years after the Gulf War that Saddam truly resurrected the role of the tribes. He reached out to the leaders, allocating them specific sectors of the country to supervise in exchange for more autonomy over tribal affairs. Talal, who says his tribe has about 100,000 armed men all over Iraq, is proud of the tribe's various roles in the 1990s. It was assigned a 72-mile section of highway to protect at night in southern Iraq, for example. "It became a duty to prove our loyalty to the president," said the sheik, who has been a member of the rubber-stamp Iraqi parliament for the past three years. Of course by way of compensation for his efforts Talal can also now use the same highway to smuggle guns drugs and satellite TV units for sale on the bagdhad black market. "The tribal leaders were very happy that their old role was to be returned," said Wamidh Nadhmi, a political science professor at Baghdad University. "They were good at protecting roads, delivering water and sorting out the problems the government can't. I don't think they have the strength they did in the early days of Iraq, though, when they outgunned and outnumbered the Iraqi army." Insert boilerplate answer Here: On a visit to Naharat Nimrud, a tribal hamlet, Talal listed the benefits accrued from the president. Right off the main road sits the Saddam Mosque, then a new school and an infirmary, all paid for by Saddam. When crops of wheat and barley fail, the president regularly forgives all government loans for seeds and fertilizer. Various sheiks scoff at the idea that U.S. money might persuade crucial tribes to switch sides. Sheik Ahmed Mohiedin Zangana, the leader of a small Kurdish tribe opposed to his U.S.-allied brethren in the north, noted that he had already assigned members of his tribe positions to take up around the city of Mosul and elsewhere in the event of an attack, although he, too, awaits heavier weapons. "I have my specific plans to distribute members of the tribe if paratroopers land," he said. "Each sniper knows his special assignment." To provide a moving target for the 101st airborne, most likely. /SPAN> Talal described the likely resistance in religious terms. "We protect the nation's land, and we would consider killing Americans a jihad in the service of God if they come here as aggressors," he said. "The Quran says an eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth, so when anybody kills us, we will kill them." The British experience during World War I is a cautionary history cited often in Iraq these days. Expecting a warm tribal welcome when they marched into Iraq to toss out the Ottomans, the British instead were met with hostile tribes united to fiercely fight them. "The graveyards of the British are still in Iraq," Talal said. Yes, because unlike you yabbos, they managed to get out of town now and then.... |
| Posted by:Frank Martin |