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| Middle East |
| "Arab Street’ Folds Tent: Arab nations falling into line on Iraq |
| 2003-01-27 |
| Amman, Jordan -- The slogan appears on walls, bus shelters and billboards throughout the country. "Jordan First," it reads in Arabic, over a photo of outstretched hands lifting the national flag. It's a message from the country's ruler, King Abdullah II, that Jordan's national interest -- not those of Iraqis or Palestinians -- must guide government policy. Despite strong public opposition to a U.S. strike against Iraq and equally strong support for the Palestinian cause, the king is charting a careful course that avoids offending his prime international patron, the United States. It's a stance that is being adopted by most governments in the region. At a time when opposition to war is growing in Europe, led by France and Germany, most Arab regimes appear to be moving in the other direction. I dont think Opposition is growing, its just being more vocal. Until recently, Arab leaders had been the most vocal in criticizing Washington's talk of war. Saudi Arabia had said it would not allow its military bases to be used in any such effort, while Jordan's monarch warned of a Middle East "Armageddon" resulting from a U.S.-Iraq war. Translation - My power base will be effected, thats a disaster. But now, most of them are falling in behind Washington. Despite their fears of political instability in the wake of an Iraq invasion -- which could threaten their own hold on power -- they seem to have decided that they cannot afford to jeopardize their all-important relations with the United States by remaining on the sidelines. You can get on the bus or get mowed down by it. In the end, Arabs are pratical people. "Iraq's neighbors are not playing a significant role in this dispute," said a Western diplomat in the region, who did not wish to be named. "But we expect that at the end of the day, they will play a positive overall role in efforts to disarm Saddam Hussein." Arab efforts to play an active role in averting a war have so far borne little fruit, a conclusion affirmed by Abdullah himself. "Unfortunately, I believe that we're now a bit too little, too late to see a way out, a diplomatic solution between Iraq and the international community, " the 40-year-old king told the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Sunday. Last Thursday, top officials of Turkey, Syria, Iran, Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia met in Istanbul in a last-ditch effort to find a peaceful solution. But they agreed only on a vague statement calling on Iraq to continue cooperating with U.N. weapons inspectors and "to demonstrate a more active approach," while also urging that the final decision on war rest with the United Nations. At the same time, the leaders ignored a proposal that they encourage Hussein to resign. The proposal, reportedly floated by Saudi Arabia, has so far fallen on equally stony ground in Baghdad. Arab commentators say such failures point to the continuing ineffectiveness of governments in the region. "The lack of results in the Istanbul summit show that there is no Arab nation anymore, only a collection of impotent countries," said Taher Masri, a former Jordanian prime minister and foreign minister. "Since the Gulf War, there has been no cooperation between governments. Like Jordan, all Arab leaders are merely looking after their own affairs." As well they should. Even the summit's venue in Turkey, a non-Arab country, shows a lack of Arab cohesion on an issue as crucial as a U.S. invasion. Caught between lucrative economic ties to both Washington and Baghdad, Jordan is a strong illustration of Arab paralysis. U.S. military and foreign aid totaled $460 million last year, a large amount for a country of 5.2 million people. Jordanian exports to the United States have boomed because of a new free-trade pact, reaching an estimated $325 million last year, a fourfold increase since 2000. But Iraq plays a close second in largesse, providing Jordan all the gasoline and heating oil it needs at a hefty 75 percent discount -- a subsidy amounting to $400 million per year. And Iraq is Jordan's second-largest export market after the United States. Publicly, Abdullah has ruled out the use of Jordanian soil for military operations while pleading with the Bush administration to allow U.N. weapons inspections to continue. However, American officials privately admit that Abdullah has allowed U.S. Special Forces to establish a foothold for secret operations against Iraq. More unpleasant facts for the 'peace train' folks. In the end this will be Germany method as well, public rebuke, floowed by close co-operation with Special Forces. Abdullah has asked the United States and Saudi Arabia to replace the oil supply it would lose from Iraq in the event of war. Despite reports to the contrary, diplomats say that no deal has been reached yet. Its a deal. Anyone second that? But such support would be crucial to reduce public anger in case of war. About 60 percent of Jordan's population is of Palestinian origin, and many regard Saddam Hussein as a champion of the Palestinian fight against Israel. In a public opinion poll earlier this month carried out by the Center for Strategic Studies, a respected research unit at the University of Jordan, 98 percent of the 1,373 people questioned said war would be bad for Jordan. Asked whether the government should give the United States access to its bases or other assistance for an Iraq invasion, only 2 percent were in favor. "If there is war, and people see major bloodshed in Iraq at the hands of the Americans, there will be serious instability here," said Salem Nahhas, leader of the Jordanian People's Democratic Party, a leftist, pro-Palestinian group that the government has long viewed as a potential leader of anti- government unrest. To quell the prospect of public unrest, Abdullah's powerful security services have recently banned most demonstrations and public meetings. Although he has pledged to hold parliamentary elections this spring, Abdullah, long regarded as a pro-democratic, Western-oriented modernizer, has hinted that he may cancel the voting if there is war in Iraq. Many observers say he fears that conservative Islamists and secular leftists would make major gains. I'd wait till the funding from Iraq drys up for the oppostion, once they are discredited and without funds, it will be much easier to hold an election. Taking issue with calls on the Jordanian street for solidarity with a fellow Arab state, Abdullah said: "Concern for pan-Arab issues has mostly been mere slogans raised to justify the failure of leaderships to address the internal predicaments of their peoples and to achieve development and freedom that their peoples deserve." And on Thursday, while his foreign minister, Marwan Muasher, was talking peace in Istanbul, the king met with visiting General Tommy Franks, asking the commander of the U.S. Central Command to give Jordan a modern air defense system. It was a symbolic, almost futile gesture -- any such system would take months to purchase and install, so it would be unusable if an Iraq war takes place in the next of couple months, as is widely expected. Positions among Arab nations: -- Saudi Arabia -- Official opposition to U.S. war on Iraq is weakening. Officials have told Washington that it can use the huge, state-of-the-art Prince Bandar Air Base to attack Iraq -- although they haven't defined the extent of such use. -- Jordan -- Denies that it will allow U.S. forces to use bases in an attack. But it is an open secret that U.S. Special Forces are being allowed to stage undercover operations from there. -- Qatar -- Despite longtime good relations with Saddam Hussein, Qatar has thrown its lot in with Washington, hosting U.S. military planning headquarters and playing a role behind a recent attempt to encourage Hussein to resign. -- Kuwait -- After a tentative rapprochement with Iraq last year, Kuwait has swung fully behind the American line, with thousands of U.S. troops and more every day being stationed there. -- Syria -- A major economic ally of Hussein, Syria has criticized U.S. war plans but voted in favor of the U.N. Security Council resolution 1441 that authorized the return of U.N. arms inspectors to Iraq. Next on the 'axis of evil' hit parade -- Iran -- The longtime enemy of Iraq is taking an equivocal stand, refusing to allow U.S. troops on its territory but allowing Shiite rebels to operate out of Iranian territory. Possible use of airspace, but nothing public. They will ahvea real problem of refugees cross the border in the midst of the attack. -- Turkey -- The population is strongly against U.S. war, but the government is leaning toward allowing U.S. planes and troops to use the all- important bases at Incirlik and other locations. "leaning towards", means 20,00 troops and two full airforce bases. Turkey is a feight anyway, no one going to roll tank through that terrain. -- United Arab Emirates -- A low-profile U.S. ally, with small American military bases. -- Oman -- A close U.S. ally, with large American and British bases. Our "new best freinds" -- Bahrain -- With a restless Shiite population, the tiny island nation is not expected to play a major role in an invasion despite its large U.S. Navy base. |
| Posted by:Frank Martin |
| #2 "Concern for pan-Arab issues has mostly been mere slogans raised to justify the failure of leaderships to address the internal predicaments of their peoples and to achieve development and freedom that their peoples deserve." The truth of the "Arab Street" finally admitted. |
| Posted by: Ptah 2003-01-27 11:50:30 |
| #1 Re: Iran - we used their airspace last time without their ok (or their knowledge) to allow Tomahawks to strike Baghdad. It's a lot easier for a terrain-follower to guide on a mountain range (Iran) than a pool-table (Iraq). |
| Posted by: mojo 2003-01-27 11:09:29 |