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Iraq
Turkey edges closer to deal with US
2003-02-22
Washington and Ankara were edging towards a deal last night that could eventually allow American troops to be deployed in south-eastern Turkey, where they will prepare a northern front against Saddam Hussein's regime. But the success of any agreement, likely to include a compensation package of more than $26bn (£16.5bn), may yet depend on a free vote in Turkey's parliament, where large numbers of both opposition and government deputies are vocally anti-war.
Guys, I know you were just elected and you're feeling your religious roots and all, but you need to understand something, and this general over here is going to 'plain it to you.
Talks have dragged on between the traditionally close Nato allies for three months and this week degenerated into public haggling about money. Turkey's foreign minister, Yasar Yakis, said yesterday that progress had been made despite there being outstanding issues on military, economic and political matters. "There is very broad agreement. The remaining issues are not that many. If both sides show determination over the weekend, these issues can be resolved."
Why do I get the feeling that this is going to cost us more money?
The parliament is due to reconvene on Tuesday and it will have to authorise American use of airbases such as Batman, Diyarbakir and Incerlik if they are to be involved in an assault on Iraq. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, leader of the governing Justice and Development party (AKP), will not instruct his deputies on how to vote, party sources suggested yesterday. Mr Erdogan said that if the issue were sent to parliament, he hoped his "friends would act toward the authorisation".
Mr. Erdogan, the good generals want you to recommend this. In fact, they want you to pass it. Now be a good fellow and get on with it.
The AKP has 363 members in the 550-seat assembly. Most of the remaining deputies belong to the Republican People's party which has said it will vote against any deal.
Perhaps they should remind themselves that making their point today will lead to us making our point tomorrow...
The prime minister, Abdullah Gul was upbeat about the prospects of an agreement. "It is certain that we understand [America's] concerns and they understand ours in the best possible way and a result will be reached in the coming days," he told businessmen in Istanbul.
Errrrg. How much is this going to cost us?
Posted by:Steve White

#13  Everyone keeps saying that their military can strip parliment of their power, but it can't be that cut and dried or we'd already have an answer. It's more like they are playing a game of good cop(generals)/bad cop (parliment)to get the most money they can. But that's dangerous because it inflames their anti-war population, emboldens our enemies and delays our troops. If this isn't just diversion drama, then I think the Turks are playing with a fire that could easily cause someone to get burned.
Posted by: becky   2003-02-23 08:12:07  

#12  Whatever, looks like this false drama or posturing is about to end. There is also talk about it , that Generals in Republic of Turkey, (a republican parliamentary democracy - aka one of the first experiments in military democracy, the second one is Pakistan) have threatened the newly elected government that they would strip it of power if it does not allow US troops in good time. ANYWAY...

The Washington Reuters has reported as: “U.S. to Move Troops to Turkey Under Tentative Deal” dated Saturday February 22, 2003 07:14 PM ET. It is present on web page: http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=2271427

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S military hopes to begin moving thousands of troops to Turkey as early as next week to take part in a possible invasion of Iraq under a tentative deal on U.S. aid for Turkey, U.S. defense officials said on Saturday.
"Things seem to be moving forward," one of the officials, who asked not to be identified, told Reuters.
The American officials stressed that a deal was not yet final, but Turkey's parliament was expected to approve it in a vote next week.
In return for allowing U.S. troops to use bases in Turkey to launch an attack on Iraq, the United States is offering Ankara a multibillion-dollar aid package aimed at cushioning its fragile economy against the shock of a possible war.
U.S. officials say the aid package tentatively agreed by both sides would give Turkey $6 billion, of which $1 billion would secure an immediate $10 billion loan.
The roughly $5 billion in U.S. cash assistance remaining would be split into economic grants and military aid. The United States has also offered Ankara up to $1 billion worth of oil from regional allies Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
Earlier proposed U.S. aid packages envisaged up to $20 billion in loan guarantees spread over three years, whereas the latest version allows Ankara to take the cash and loans up-front.
At the Bush administration's urging, U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Dennis Hastert has privately assured Turkish officials that Congress would move swiftly to approve the aid once a final agreement is reached.
Asked if Turkey and the United States had reached a final deal, White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said he had "nothing to report."
"We continue to have good consultations with Turkey and I anticipate they will continue a little longer," Fleischer told reporters in Crawford, Texas where President Bush is spending the weekend at his ranch.
The United States plans to move up to 40,000 troops, most of them from the 4th Infantry Division, to Turkey. The division's heavy equipment, including tanks and other supplies already are on cargo ships headed for Turkey.
The troops would be flown there for quick arrival to join a force of nearly 200,000 U.S. and British military personnel gathered in the Gulf region for a possible invasion of Iraq.”

Posted by: ISHMAIL   2003-02-23 00:25:18  

#11   Oil only covers the Turkish economy if the US doesn't back down and there seems to have been a great deal slow-down lately on the diplomatic front as far as US plans for war with Iraq go when it comes to getting UN approval (not that we need it, but that's another story ...). If the US backs down after the Turks agree to let us use their bases, I would tend to think that such an act is going to have extremely negative implications with a lot of their regional trading partners.

Erdogan and Gul honestly strike me as people who are trying to do the right thing (supporting the US) while simultaneously trying to reassure their people that another war isn't going to mean yet more economic troubles, a return of the PKK (especially with the sporadic clashes along the border of late), and the very real possibility of an Iraqi WMD attack on their soil. And since Turkey shares borders with Iraq, keep in mind that such an attack not necessarily come from the air.

Granted, these concerns are going to deprive the US of some cash, but in the long run you need to realize that the Turkish government is taking a great many risks even by offering to host US forces in their country to begin with. Asking for a little cash in recompense is hardly the extortion scheme the media has made it out to be.
Posted by: Dan Darling   2003-02-22 23:41:52  

#10  If we are only paying for the Turks defense, then their game of brinksmanship seems a bit odd. If we need nothing from them, then they should be begging, not bargaining. In fact, this whole drama has a fishy smell about it (or is that a rat).

I hope this spectacle of Turkey pulling us around by our ear is all part of the plan - but short of that, it's looking more and more like the turkies are playing a very dangerous game of chicken.
Posted by: becky   2003-02-22 19:51:57  

#9  a similar economic disaster this time around
Oil rights will more than cover the risk to their economy. I bet they're haggling over this than anything else. Bush has already said he will hold Iraqi oil in trust, and the Turks are saying "yeah that's very nice of you BUT......."
Posted by: RW   2003-02-22 18:09:19  

#8  I've felt from the get-go that Turkey had a legitimate claim on the U.S. for services rendered in the first Gulf War, particularly due to the fact that said services ended up putting the Turkish economy in the tank. The Turks, quite rightly, don't want to risk a similar economic disaster this time around (not to mention that, as Dan says, there's the real chance that Saddam may decide to throw a few Scuds Ankara's way - and Amman's, come to think on it); the Turkish government, as noted in numerous places, also has to deal with a public opinion that is strongly anti-war and therefore has to prove that it's getting the best deal it possibly can from the U.S. Judging from all the signs (including the latest report on Yahoo! News, http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=578&e=3&cid=578&u=/nm/20030222/ts_nm/iraq_turkey_dc), they're just about ready to do the deal. Personally, I'd have suggested that we sweeten the offer by throwing in NAFTA membership, but as it is, it's money for defense, not tribute. And it'll be mighty useful to have a couple of divisions of tough Turkish infantry in northern Iraq to keep the Kurds cool and keep Saddam from getting any funny ideas on that front.
Posted by: Joe   2003-02-22 17:34:37  

#7  It just haggling, relax. The Turks will give us what we want, but they're gonna negotiate the best deal they possibly can first. They too remember the last Gulf War, and it's shoddy aftermath.
Posted by: mojo   2003-02-22 15:03:42  

#6  Although basing your objection for the war on a specific dollar sum kind of negates any anti-war sentiments.
Posted by: Jon   2003-02-22 14:29:22  

#5   Additionally, the Turks are essentially being asked to risk the resurrection of the PKK as well as the prospect of their cities being subjected to Saddam's WMDs if Iraq goes nutty when the US invades. Under those kind of circumstances, the Turks asking for a little more money doesn't seem so bad after all.
Posted by: Dan Darling   2003-02-22 13:50:56  

#4  As they say, best defense is a good offence, best offence here has two fronts - north and south. (Pay no attention to the western desert, nothing going on there.) Therefore, the billions for turkish agreement are for defense. Plus turkey has been a more reliable friend than most.
Posted by: Steve   2003-02-22 13:03:10  

#3  Millions for defense not one cent for tribute.
Posted by: Anonymous   2003-02-22 12:06:55  

#2  anon: Its not charity, its bribery, which means that it IS worth it.
Posted by: Tom Roberts   2003-02-22 10:38:06  

#1  If you have to beg for something, then why bother?
Posted by: Anon   2003-02-22 03:42:07  

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