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Iraq
Moscow Offers Plan to Prevent War and Rescue Saddam
2003-02-25
I hate to post from DEBKA, the National Enquirer of the War on Terror, but somebody's gotta bring their stuff into the light of scrutiny:
According to DEBKAfile’s intelligence and Russian sources, Russian President Vladimir Putin has stepped into the bipolar crisis over Iraq between the US-led and French-led world blocs with a dramatic proposition for averting war. In this approach, he sees eye to eye with the French, German and Chinese rulers and is eager to consult with the Schroeder on his new plan.
Sounds like its still 'bi-polar' with Russia joining the 'status quo is fine with us' bloc.
DEBKAfile’s most exclusive sources accessed the Putin proposal for Iraq and reveals its high points:
1. Acceptance of the plan by Saddam and Washington – with UN endorsement – will result in the United States calling off its war offensive against Iraq.
2. Saddam will be required to immediately dismantle and destroy all his weapons of mass destruction, that arsenal being checked against Russia’s lists and compared with American data. (DEBKAfile notes incidentally that Russian generals and intelligence chiefs have consistently claimed until now that Saddam does not possess a single WMD!)
3. Saddam stays on as president for approximately one year.
4. In the course of the disarmament process, a transitional government will be established in Baghdad with no affinity to the ruling Baath or Saddam’s ruling circle. It will officiate one year under international oversight, draft a new Iraqi constitution and arrange a general election.
5. The election over, Saddam will retire and make way for the newly-elected regime.
6. He and his family, together with his top political and military circle, will move out of Baghdad and take up residence at an internationally protected palace compound near Tharthar Lake north of Tikrit. He will be allowed to move in and out of this palace under certain restrictions.
7. Iraq pays LukOil and TotalFinaELF lots of money.
It sounds calibrated to provide the perception of a viable alternative to war during the latest UN debate. I take any Primakov/Putin initiative more seriously than the vaporware coming out of Berlin and Paris.
Posted by:JAB

#1  Such a proposal is unacceptable for Saddam or any Arab despotic leader (there are no others). If it is obvious that the tyran is going to step down, the wolves will break loose and kill him immediately. Saddam cannot accept this.

If it is not obvious that Saddam will go and he manages to give the impression that the one-year period will be much longer, nobody will be prepared to serve on provisional government bodies that are supposed to take over power. Doing that would be suicidal.

Since the Russian plan is based on American withdrawal from the region (point 1), the second scenario will be inevitable. Saddam continues to play games and nobody will risk his head trying to replace him.

This plan is nonsensical and it amazes me that a bunch of former KGB hotshots wasn't able to come up with a more plausible idea.
Posted by: Peter   2003-02-26 03:47:25  

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