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| Korea |
| North Korea prepares new test of missile |
| 2003-03-12 |
| North Korea is preparing another missile test, which would break Pyongyang's moratorium on long-range ballistic missile flights, U.S. intelligence officials said. Sounds like the T-2 is going to fly. Meanwhile, a separate test Monday of a new anti-ship cruise missile, the second in two weeks, was a failure, with the 100-mile-range missile failing to fly properly because of a guidance system problem, the officials told The Washington Times. NKor circuit boards must be made of tree bark etched with a sharp rock. Recent satellite photographs of a North Korean base showed activity that appeared to be flight-test preparations, said officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity. "There aren't indications of an imminent launch, but it is something they might well do," one U.S. official said. "It's certainly a possibility." A second official said the activity is being watched closely and that there are concerns that the flight test, which would be North Korea's third in recent weeks, will be of the Taepo-Dong 2 ballistic missile. A third official at the Pentagon said, "Clearly, the potential is there for a launch with little or no notice." U.S. officials said the missile tested Monday was a North Korean version of the Chinese-made HY-2 Silkworm anti-ship missile that has an estimated range of up to 100 miles. The second flight test of the new missile failed because of problems with the guidance system, U.S. officials said. The missile flew about 80 miles over the East Sea/Sea of Japan. It hit the Sea of Japan. Must have been a success. The preparations and the cruise-missile flight tests come amid growing tensions on the Korean Peninsula. The Pentagon is dispatching six F-117 Stealth fighter bombers to South Korea for exercises to begin next week, said Defense Department spokesman Lt. Cmdr. Jeff Davis. It will be the first time since 1993, when the first crisis developed concerning North Korea's nuclear-weapons program, that the radar-evading aircraft are moved to South Korea. That's sending a message. NKor Air Defence Command must be sleeping less well tonight. South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun yesterday called for maintaining a strong alliance with the United States. "The staunch Korea-U.S. combined defense arrangement is greatly contributing to our national security," Mr. Roh said in a speech at the Korean Military Academy. "The solid ... alliance should be maintained even more so." "Please don't leave us!" North Korea, meanwhile, repeated its call for direct talks with the United States. "If the U.S. turns to a military option in the end, persistently turning down the [NorthÂŽs] In Tokyo, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi sought to play down the cruise-missile test on Monday, telling reporters that it was "not an emergency." He said Japan would work with the United States to prevent Pyongyang from taking reckless action. Stocks in Tokyo fell to a 20-year low after reports in the Rodong Sinmun that the test was more than a simple military drill. Step by step, bit by bit, conditioning the Japanese people to accept the need for a Japanese nuclear option. Defense officials said North Korea's first two missile tests were directed at the United States. Pyongyang is trying North Korea's government is expected to announce a warning of the next missile test soon, perhaps as early as today, the officials said. Pyongyang released an official notice in advance of the missile tests that happened Feb. 24 and Monday. A major worry among U.S. officials is that the upcoming test, which would be the third in recent weeks, will be a second flight test of its new long-range Taepo-Dong 2 ballistic missile, which was flight-tested for the first time in August 1998. The CIA said in a report made public in December 2001 that North Korea is improving the Taepo-Dong 2. The missile can carry a warhead weighing several hundred pounds up to 6,200 miles, "sufficient to strike Alaska, Hawaii and parts of the continental United States." If a lighter third stage is used, like the one tested in 1998, the Taepo-Dong 2 could have a range of 9,300 miles. That configuration would be "sufficient to strike all of North America," the CIA said, noting that a future test of the missile could be disguised as a space launch. Our Aegis cruiser in the area could launch an interceptor disguised as a test of the Ballistic Missile Defense system. The North Korean government announced after the 1998 launch that it would halt the tests. The Taepo-Dong 2 overflew portions of Japanese airspace and created widespread security The F-117s sent to South Korea are taking part in the annual U.S.-South Korean exercises known as Foal Eagle/RSOI, for reception, staging and onward integration. The maneuvers begin March 19 and will continue through early April, Cmdr. Davis said. Or longer. One of the exercises simulates a North Korean special-operations attack on South Korea. Most of the 37,000 troops in South Korea will take part in the exercises, which have been denounced by official North Korean news outlets as preparation for war. We're always preparing; that's why we've had peace there for about 50 years. |
| Posted by:Steve White |
| #11 While I have to agree with Chuck that there are limits to Chinese leverage in North Korea, the fact remains that they are steadfastly refusing to use the influence they do have. From their (mistaken) point of view, forcing the US to enter into direct negotiations with Pyongyang can only help Beijing; in particular, China is looking for reductions in American troop levels along the Pacific Rim, which in turn would give China greater leverage over Seoul and Tokyo as American influence correspondingly diminishes. The problem with this line of thinking, however, is that it's based on the assumption that Japan will retain its pacifist outlook even after the Yankees go home, and it ignores the fact that in the short to medium term, Japan can project much more power in the region than China. Beijing must come to understand that despite initial appearences, an American withdrawal from the region (which now appears underway, at least from where I sit in South Korea) will not be the boon to Chinese strategic interests that Beijing expects. Taboo is it may be, the Japan card must be played; only then will the Chinese begin to act like the Great Power that they so aspire to be. |
| Posted by: The Marmot 2003-03-13 00:01:31 |
| #10 Maybe the Japanese ARE listening? from the Wash Post: Japan Deploys a Surveillance Ship AP -Wednesday, March 12, 2003; 9:01 PM Japan has sent a battleship to the Sea of Japan, the Defense Agency said Thursday, amid media reports that North Korea could be preparing another missile test. Defense Agency spokesman Yoshiyuki Ueno said that the Aegis-missile equipped destroyer has top-of-the-line surveillance capabilities. Ueno refused to say when it was deployed, and described its mission as part of regular patrol activities. But the dispatch came as two major Japanese newspapers reported North Korea appears to be making final preparations to test-launch its Rodong ballistic missile, possibly around the Sea of Japan, which separates the two nations. In 1998, North Korea launched a long-range ballistic missile over Japan, demonstrating that it had the capability to reach virtually any city in the country with its warheads. Tensions have been especially high recently. On Monday, North Korea test-fired a short-range missile, in an apparent attempt to push the United States into talks over its suspected efforts to develop nuclear weapons. Analysts have said the widely anticipated launch from a base on North Korea's east coast fit a pattern of unusual military maneuvers in recent weeks that seemed designed to pressure Washington into dialogue. Japan ruled Korea as a colony from 1910 until its surrender in 1945 ended World War II. The two countries have no diplomatic relations, and North Korea has frequently said the presence of about 50,000 U.S. troops in Japan is a threat to its national security. |
| Posted by: Frank G 2003-03-12 20:31:35 |
| #9 I agree with Frank G. The next missle they shot I would shoot it down with the Aegis system. That would end the threatening by the NKors of nuclear war. As I understand the literature, the Aegis testing has been succesfull but, when dealing with ICBM's, the defender missle must be shot near the launch of the offensive ICBM. And while Im on the subject, why couldnt we develop a land based Aegis that could deal with the Iraqi scud problem. |
| Posted by: Mustang 2003-03-12 12:59:36 |
| #8 When NK does any missile test, they cannot hide it in their interior, like China can. All their telemetry data is up for grabs. Their tests give us lots of good intel for us to make decisions on countermeasures and of course retaliation. |
| Posted by: Alaska Paul 2003-03-12 10:59:56 |
| #7 It's been suggested several times by many here, but think how beneficial a successful Aegis Missile Defense Test against their bigdong-2 would be: 1) They wouldn't necessarily know that we did it, but would have to assume that we did, and could do it again any time we want. 2) It would take the NK's down several notches in the provocation for cash scheme, possibly dragging the policy of ignoring them into a collapse of their regime 3) SKorea and Japan would be our best buddies if we kept Aegis systems around for their defense 4) China would know that their Ballistic missile threats would be seen as hollow, helping Taiwan's defense |
| Posted by: Frank G 2003-03-12 10:42:42 |
| #6 The video test of the MOAB was surely sent to whomever we are cultivating in the NK armed forces. Hint - overthrow the Dear Leader or this may happen to you guys. |
| Posted by: mhw 2003-03-12 09:49:14 |
| #5 Don't assume the Chinese can control NKor. They have a say, but would have to resort to force to exercise the kind of control a lot of folks think they have. The whole NKor thing is the "Hermit Kingdom" with bombs. As for the Chinese directing more resources to their military. The Chinese Army has been engaged in a MASSIVE build up for the last decade. All more trade with the West has done is provide the funds to bring their army into the 21st century. And the Chinese Peoples Liberation Army Navy has gone from a coast guard to a real threat in the West Pac. Janpan's going nuke in the next decade, no matter what. And that should worry us, because their society is just as racist and chauvanistic as it was in the 1930's, and their economy is in the same boat. They're still short of resources, too. |
| Posted by: Chuck 2003-03-12 07:54:31 |
| #4 RW, good point, but isn't the Taiwan issue primarily a US/China thing? Assisting the North Koreans to get missile tech and Nukes also risks provoking Japan to go nuclear. How might THAT be in China's interests? Overall, I think we would all say that from China's point of view, a nuclear-armed Japan would be a very bad thing indeed. But what if hard-liners, (and I mean the let's go ram a P-3 crowd here) decided that a nifty way to increase their faction's power within China would be by deliberately provoking Japan to develop nuclear weapons in response to North Korea's program? Faced with a Japanese BOMB, China would of course respond by redirecting vastly more resources to their military. |
| Posted by: Dave 2003-03-12 06:04:15 |
| #3 I think you got it, RW. But it won't play out that way. We aren't going to allow them to have long-range missiles. Oh sure, we may allow this test, because we have Iraq to deal with now. But in three months, that game will be over, and we'll be turning hard to North Korea. There's going to be another war in Korea. It's going to happen and North Korea will be toasted. Unfortunately, a lot of Seoul is going to be destroyed too. But there is NO way we're going to allow this maniac to threaten us with missiles. And no way are we going to trade Taiwan, which isn't ours to trade, for Korea. This is going to be a rough, rough year. |
| Posted by: R. McLeod 2003-03-12 04:18:51 |
| #2 It's the perfect time to stick it to the US, and China knows it. They're positioning themselves for the ultimate sell: give up Taiwan and you can have a nuclear-free Korean peninsula, perhaps even a unified one. Watch, it will come up at some point in the future. |
| Posted by: RW 2003-03-12 03:51:48 |
| #1 Krazy Kim is desperate to wrangle concessions before the Iraq war is over. What the hell are the Chinese thinking? Are they the slightest bit concerned about this mess or is the temptation to watch us and the Japanese squirm too strong for them to resist. They'll think twice when Japan starts to re-arm but that's a high stakes poker game I'd rather avoid playing. |
| Posted by: Anonymous 2003-03-12 03:11:26 |