From the SMH no less! Heavily Edited — recommend you read the original.- The coalition has made astonishingly rapid progress. Only three Republican Guard divisions stand between the coalition forces and the city itself. Once reinforcements arrive, or even before, the opposition will be defeated.
- Second: casualties so far have been encouragingly few.... irregulars have not won any battles or even mounted successful ambushes. Suicide tactics, so deadly against civilians in crowded city streets, work less well, if at all, against armed soldiers on the alert in open country.
- Third: the Iraqi army is not fighting. The divisions around Baghdad seem to be waiting to be attacked. Although the long line of communications from Baghdad to Basra is coming under pressure, the attacks are sporadic and small-scale.
- Fourth: the Americans have achieved a vital success in capturing several of the essential bridges over the Euphrates. The failure to hold the bridges, or to blow them before capture, suggests a highly defective Iraqi defensive strategy.
- Fifth: ...the population seems inert. While it is not welcoming the invaders en masse, it is equally not raising the standard of resistance.
- Finally, and to revert to the large military picture, the coalition enjoys total air superiority.
In a conventional military environment, not so heavily influenced by the surveillance of the media, any commanding general might reckon the campaign had made highly satisfactory progress so far. It has secured most of the territory and facilities over which it needs to operate, has a secure base, has acquired its own resupply port, dominates the enemy and is not threatened by large-scale civilian disorder.
The critical phase, the battle for Baghdad, has still to be reached. It is inconceivable, however, that the American army will not defeat the Republican Guard outside the city and such a defeat, in all likelihood, will rapidly bring about the city's fall.
Meanwhile, the focus is on Basra. There is no reason to think that the British will not succeed in the occupation. The fall of Basra will be a severe blow to Saddam's prestige and will signal to the population that the coalition is winning.
Wow! When the Syndey Morning Herald feels obligated to acknowledge the war is going well, it speaks volumes. |