Pakistan is preparing to flood Indian Kashmir with jehadis if the Srinagar peace initiative collapses. The bulk of the militants to be sent across the Line of Control (LoC) will be drawn from the renamed Lashkar e-Taiba, say both Indian and Pakistani sources. Senior Pakistani officials are saying they are preparing the ground for waves of suicide bombers and fidayeen attacks in the Valley. Lashkar will be the frontline jehadi group and its founder, Hafiz Saeed, the public face of the militants.
Islamabad is depending on Lashkar for a number of reasons.One, Pakistan is avoiding using Jaish e-Mohammed because it is tainted with links to Al-Qaeda and is being closely watched by Washington. Islamabad also sees Masood Azhar as too independent and as becoming too powerful. The authorities are moving to sideline him. Azhar's attempts to go to PoK are reportedly being instigated by groups within the ISI who fear Jaish is losing out to Lashkar.
Azhar used to be a part of the Harkut ul-Mujahideen, but then that group was put on the Foreign Terrorist List and Azhar was released from an Indon gaol after a plane hijacking. He then went on a tour of the major Pakistani cities foaming at the mouth about Jihad, surrounded by dozens of Kalishnikov-wielding Jihadis and announced the formation of the Jaish. It later turned out that the Jihadis were actually ISI agents there to 'protect' Azhar from a possible Indian assassination attempt.
Two, the Hizbul Mujahideen has almost ceased to be a fighting force following Majid Dar's murder. Indian intelligence believes Hizb's internal faction fighting has made it nearly impossible for the group to carry out major terrorist strikes. Syed Salahuddin's faction in the Hizb is now little more than a logistics agency for Lashkar. Its role in any summer flare-up will be providing guides and porters. Hizbul still controls the launching and receiving points for militants along the LoC, which means, say Pakistani sources, it is still has a necessary role in infiltration.
The Hizb is the only major Jihadi group in Kashmir made up mostly of Kashmiris. Lashkar's membership is around 90% Pakistani. The Indians have been working on splitting the Hezb so that they could negotiate with moderates who are sick of fighting for their lives while their leaders live in mansions on the other side of the border.
Three, Lashkar, which has been nurtured by the ISI, is more amenable to Islamabad's control than Jaish. After it changed its name, Lashkar moved its camps and offices from Punjab to Sindh. Islamabad has also begun working with lower-level Lashkar leaders, rather than those known to the US. Jehadi-watchers say Hafeez Saeed will be the pointman if Kashmir burns this summer. He is close to the Muttahida Majlis e-Amal (MMA), the ISI and in the good books of Islamabad. Saeed rejected the peace initiative in a rally in Muzaffarabad, PoK, on Wednesday. "The solution lies in jehad, not in dialogue," he said.
| To Hafiz, the solution to everything lies in jihad... |
Another rising force is Hamid Gul, who is serving as Saeed's advisor. His influence is being seen in Lashkar's increasingly virulent attacks against the US. "Gul was never out of favour with Islamabad. He just kept a low profile because of US pressure," said an Indian official. Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf has said and continues to believe India called the Agra summit because of jehadi violence in Kashmir. If Srinagar fails, say observers in Islamabad, he believes a spike in insurgency will force New Delhi back to the negotiating table.
| I expect it to fail, and we'll be looking for the spike this summer. Because it's such a failed state, it's not in Pak's interest for anything to come of it. If there's no Kashmir problem, then they're stuck with the problems they've got at home, which are probably insurmountable without large-scale arrests and summary executions... |
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