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India-Pakistan
Roadmap for Pakistan
2003-05-25
I'm not sure how reliable this is, but it is still interesting, although I am not sure how successful it will be. If the US really wants Pakistan to return to a democracy, they will have to put pressure on Musharaff to allow Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif to return to the country, since they are the only ones who could take votes away from the MMA
Rediff calls it a “US Roadmap for Pakistan” and a senior State Department official says it may be a (US Embassy) “budget document delineating time frames and costs of implementing policies” but it has now been confirmed that in a serious security breach at the US Embassy in Islamabad, the entire US game plan has leaked, which includes clipping General Pervez Musharraf’s wings by early 2004 and strengthening democracy in Pakistan. “America has set 2004 as the target for ending Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf's right to dismiss the Cabinet and the National Assembly... In its 'mission plan' for 2004, the American embassy in Islamabad says a key area of focus is consolidation of the 'emerging democracy' in the nuclear-armed nation, where military coups and fragile democratic institutions are a cause for international concern,” is how the leaked documents have been described.

In a series of 5 short articles published by the credible Indian Internet portal Rediff.com, between May 14 and 20, writer Josy Joseph claimed possession of the leaked US Embassy Documents and extensively quoted them on several hot button issues, including Kashmir, but surprisingly not a single media outlet in India, Pakistan or in the US picked up the story which contains explosive and highly controversial plans proving the extent to which the US side was directing and interfering in Pakistani affairs under General Pervez Musharraf’s regime. Click Here to Read Part-1 of the Series | Part-2 | Part-3 | Part-4 | Part-5

While attempts to get a response from the US Embassy in Islamabad produced no result on Friday, a senior State Department official, when asked to comment on the leaked documents and the so-called “Roadmap for Pakistan,” told me on May 23, 2003, “the State Department has seen the Rediff.com reports and there was a lot of buzz in the Department but he would neither confirm nor deny its contents.” While the repercussions of the leaked Roadmap could be devastating for General Musharraf, as it may simply pull the rug from under his feet, shaking the all pervasive belief that Washington was solidly behind him, democracy lovers in Pakistan and abroad would feel some satisfaction that finally the US was getting convinced not to invest all its political and economic capital in shaky individuals but to strengthen national institutions which could prove more reliable and durable over a long period of time.

The US Roadmap, as revealed by Rediff, which has not yet produced any evidence of these documents except strong claims that it had them in its possession, contains elaborate details of the US plans for Jammu and Kashmir and the rest of the subcontinent. They also spell out a detailed American strategy, with specific annual targets, to resolve the Kashmir standoff in a phased manner. The US strategy proposes three basic steps:
  • Press Pakistan to prevent the infiltration of terrorists across the Line of Control.
  • Urge Pakistan to move against terrorists and help it bring them to justice by improving its law-enforcement capabilities.
  • Facilitate an Indo-Pakistan dialogue on Kashmir.
In 2003, one of the American targets is to replace Kashmiri terrorist leaders and extremists by 'Kashmiri politicians'. This is clear in the way the US has ignored leaders of the All-Parties Hurriyat Conference and other fringe elements in recent days, after its appeal to them to take part in the Jammu and Kashmir assembly election last year proved futile.

In 2004, India and Pakistan should be nudged to develop 'diplomatic and political alternatives to military pressure' to address 'bilateral disputes', and negotiate new confidence-building measures, or CBMs.
"Confidence building measures" always make me think of Lucy and Charlie Brown with the football...
Finally, in 2005, when these CBMs are implemented, the US hopes to see 'diplomatic and political solutions used successfully to address bilateral issues'. This is when a framework for the 'eventual political resolution of Kashmir' will be laid out. Though he isn't mentioned by name, Rediff said America has set 2004 as the target for ending Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf's right to dismiss the Cabinet and the National Assembly.

On Nuclear Non-Proliferation issues, the 'Mission Plan' of the American Embassy a strategy to prevent Pakistan from becoming a 'source for nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons, missiles or related technology'. The first step involves helping 'Pakistan develop and strengthen its national export control systems', while, at the same time, continuing to 'urge Pakistani officials to clamp down on possible rogue actors and entities to ensure they don't pass on sensitive information and equipment'. In 2003, the Americans hope to ensure that there is no 'operational deployment of nuclear weapons or ballistic missiles' and to 'nudge' the Pakistanis to implement the export controls adopted last year. By 2004, they expect full and effective implementation of these controls. Simultaneously, the Americans are encouraging 'Pakistan to exercise restraint in further missile development, and to neither mate nor deploy nuclear weapons or missiles' to minimize the risk of a war with India.

In 2004, the Americans also hope to establish a functional intelligence and investigative database that would be linked to provincial CIDs and the National Crisis Management Cell. This database will be linked to the PISCES border control system. By 2005, the US hopes to see this criminal database online and accessible to all police stations around Pakistan. The frontier constabulary is also being modernized to allow it to credibly police the region. In 2002, the Khyber Pass Area Project was launched and construction of roads into the Tirah Valley was started. By 2004, the Americans hope to build roads 'into last remaining inaccessible areas of FATA' and ensure that the Frontier Constabulary maintains 'presence throughout tribal areas' of Pakistan. In the current year, the Americans hope to prompt Pakistan into taking effective measures to regulate the hawala/hundi system, while expanding financial intelligence units to include law enforcement agencies. By 2005, Pakistan will hopefully be given full responsibility for the anti-money-laundering/ terrorist-financing units.

According to the documents the US embassy in Pakistan has recommended a massive list of military wares, financial aid on several fronts and other assistance as it re-engages Islamabad. The list submitted at the end of 2002 has UH-II utility helicopters, AH-I attack helicopters, VHF/UHF aircraft radio sets, T-37 flight training aircraft, AN/FPS-117 surveillance radars, E-2C warning and control aircraft, Bell 407 reconnaissance helicopters and I-GNAT unmanned aerial vehicles among other things.
Posted by:Paul Moloney

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