TEHRAN - With the United States looking set on a concerted campaign to destabilise Iranâs clerical regime, the Islamic republicâs embattled reformist camp are edging closer to a major showdown with their hardline rivals. Arguing that powerful conservatives have isolated Iranâs voters by blocking President Mohammad Khatamiâs progressive agenda, reformists are warning that the only way to stave off the threat from Washington is for the hardliners to bend to their will.
| It's either that, or al-Jazeera can carry video of people beating posters of old guys in turbans with their shoes... |
No Iranian, Khatamiâs supporters reason, will fight to defend an unpopular regime — a lesson clearly spelled out by the quick collapse of armed resistance during the invasion of Iraq.
On Saturday, a group of 127 reformist MPs launched a blistering attack on the layers of hardline-controlled institutions that have blocked their reform agenda, calling directly on supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to intervene or risk watching the Islamic republic crumble. âPerhaps there has been no period in the recent history of Iran that was as sensitive as this,â warned the strongly-worded letter, citing âpolitical and social gaps coupled with a clear US plan to change the geopolitical map of the region.â
âIf this is a glass of poison, it should be drunk before our countryâs independence and territorial integrity are put in danger,â the letter said, in a reference to the expression used when revolutionary leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini was forced to sign a ceasefire with Iraq in 1988. The openly-distributed message charged that since Khatami won his first term in office six years ago, his camp had been undermined by an orchestrated campaign including serial murders, arrests and crackdowns targetted at reformists, students, journalists and dissidents. Singled out for attack were the Guardians Council, a conservative-controlled oversight body that vets all legislation, and the judiciary — a hardline bastion accused of waging a politically-motivated campaign against reformers.
| The true machinery of dictatorship in Iran, you might say... |
Iranâs political crisis has worsened in recent months, with Khatamiâs allies pushing through parliament twin bills that would strip the Guardians Council of its right to vet candidates for public office and enable the embattled president to challenge the judiciary. Both bills have already been rejected by the Guardians Council, with reformists in turn calling for a referendum to be held on the issue. Several reformists have also advocated staging a mass walk-out from government.
| But we all know that a referendumb would be un-Islamic. They're just interpreting God's will, after all... |
But while the crisis had been simmering for several years, the war in Iraq — which has left Iran effectively surrounded by US troops — has injected a new sense of urgency for both sides to resolve the damaging impasse. âNot much time is left,â Khamenei was told in the letter. âMost people are dissatisfied and disappointed... (and) foreign forces have surrounded the country from all sides.â
| Tell me again just how dumb Bush is... |
The reformists are well aware that the close ties they have built with US allies in Europe and Asia could come unstuck if the reform process ends -- therefore stripping Iran of any diplomatic support. Furthermore, Iran is now facing the kinds of allegations levelled at Iraq before the US attacked. Washington has accused Iran of seeking to develop nuclear weapons and hosting Al Qaeda operatives. Tentative contacts between Washington and Tehran — who broke off ties after the 1979 Islamic revolution — have also broken off, dashing any chance of detente.
| Heh heh. You might say "diplomacy is war by other means"... |
On Sunday, The Washington Post reported that the US government had ended the discreet contacts with Iran and was considering âpublic and private actionsâ to destabilize the Iranian government -- a process that many Western diplomats here see as already underway. According to the reformistsâ letter, âthe destiny of our country can either be dictatorship, or the respect of democratic rulesâ — an allusion to what analysts see as Khameneiâs two main options, transforming Iran into a fortress or swallowing the bitter pill of reform.
| My guess is that Khamenei will go with the fortress option... |
|