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Africa: West
Liberian rebels launch attack
2003-08-23
Loyalist troops say they have been attacked by rebels on the main road linking the capital Monrovia and Buchanan, 120 kilometres south-east of the capital.
That didn't take long...
A senior loyalist officer told AFP news agency that armed members of the Movement for Democracy in Liberia (MODEL) launched an attack against regular troops near Van's Town, some 10 kilometres further east of the main road. An hour later, dozens of soldiers were frantically trying to prevent several hundred civilians from nearby hamlets to flee to the west. Liberian army deputy chief of staff General Benjamin Yeaten confirmed the attacks. "We informed ECOMIL and the UN this morning, we complained to ECOMIL," he told AFP. The ministry of defence was trying to assess the situation. "We will send an assessment mission to the spot," he said. ECOMIL is the peacekeeping mission from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) which has been stationed in Monrovia since earlier this month as part of the peace process in the war-ravaged country. General Yeaten said the US military had been alerted as well and was sending a unit to the area.
Called that one, didn't we?
Event: Liberian peace deal collapse
Group: All of them
Narrative: The peace deal will not last more than a week, but the shortest interval we have is 30 days.
Window: 1 Months (9/18/03)
Probability 99% entered by Steve White on 8/19/03
Probability 100% entered by Raphael on 8/19/03
Probability 100% entered by Spot on 8/19/03
Probability 95% entered by Fred on 8/19/03
Probability 100% entered by Raj on 8/19/03
Probability 99% entered by Raj on 8/19/03
Probability 90% entered by Aris Katsaris on 8/19/03
Probability 99% entered by growler on 8/19/03
Probability 100% entered by Frank G on 8/19/03
Probability 99% entered by Watcher on 8/19/03
Probability 80% entered by Pappy on 8/19/03
Probability 80% entered by Pappy on 8/19/03
Probability 100% entered by tu3031 on 8/19/03
Overall opinion is Highly Probable (95%)
Current opinion is Highly Probable (93%)
Now the question is, how long until the full-scale fighting fires up again?
Posted by:Fred Pruitt

#5  They are our first group of re-immigrants
Posted by: Steve D   2003-8-23 12:51:10 PM  

#4  "...all reasonable people fled the country 10 years ago."

Correction: All reasonable people with enough liquid assets to do so. i.e. -- a small portion of the population. The rest just live in fear as in drug-ravaged neighborhoods of LA, NYC, Chicago, Philadelphia, Houston, Detroit, etc.
Posted by: Tom   2003-8-23 12:41:58 PM  

#3  Many people have pointed out the simularities between Iraq and Somalia yet Liberia is somehow supposed to be civilized but downtrodden. Yet, every political leader is a former warlord, every high school age kid is toting a Kalashnikov and all reasonable people fled the country 10 years ago.
Posted by: Steve D   2003-8-23 12:25:34 PM  

#2  call me a cynic, but I think the first time someone doesn't get their cut of the aid money/goods flowing in, it'll erupt
Posted by: Frank G   2003-8-23 11:32:00 AM  

#1  10 days
Posted by: Frank G   2003-8-23 11:07:39 AM  

00:00