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Middle East
Israel bombs a terrorist target in Syria
2003-10-05
After a homicide bomber murdered 19 civilians and injured dozens in Haifa, Israel bombs a Syrian terrorist training camp. The camp was located about 10 miles from Damascus.

Syria complains to the UN (News 24 Houston, AP, 10/5/2003):
In a letter to the U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan and the Security Council, Syria's foreign minister urged it to immediately hold a session to discuss Israel's action and to deter future strikes against Syria.

The foreign minister says Syria has practiced "the highest degree of self-restraint" but that Israel seeks to embroil the entire Middle East in its problems.
Yes, it is an violation of international law to strike back against guarilla armies located within totalitarian countries. The problems in the Middle East occur by themselves, without any Syrian involvement.

SFGate (AP Analysis: Israel's strike on Syria threatens to widen Israel-Palestinian conflict, RAVI NESSMAN):
If Syria does not respond militarily to the strike -- as it appears it won't -- Israel will have succeeded in serving notice that it is prepared to strike at nations supporting militant groups as part of its campaign to halt violence against the Jewish state. ...

[Reportedly, the air strike injured one guard.]

The United States also accuses Syria of letting foreign fighters into Iraq to attack American troops, and the recent arrest of two U.S. servicemen with links to Syria have led to U.S. suspicions that Damascus is spying on Washington.
Israel injures a Syrian guard in response to its internal problems. This is outrageous!
Posted by:Alex

#2  Well, baby Assad has a few choices for his next move:
1. Retailiate directly vs. Israel.
2. Retailiate through it's proxies vs. Israel.
3. Don't retailiate.

The first choice will be seen as an escalation in that there are no equivalent sites in Israel against which Syria could conduct a proportional response, and, even if such a location existed, Syria is incapable of any sort of precision strike. Syria will have to move large military formations to retailiate directly. Such escalation would weaken its case in world opinion while providing the Israelis an excuse to humiliate the Syrians once again.

Option 2 forces it to more overtly support groups the US has designated to be terrorist organizations. This might attract those 5 aircraft carriers back to the region but it's doable.

Option 3 ensures that Baby Assad will lose face -- a very bad thing in the dictator business.

I predict baby Assad chooses Option 2. It's the best of a bad set of choices. I wonder if he regrets passing on a wonderful chance to behave himself.
Posted by: JAB   2003-10-5 9:02:47 PM  

#1  I agree Alex - as you may notice, it was posted earlier in Syria -Lebanon, and I'm personally outraged that more terrorists weren't blown to bits. Maybe next strike?
Posted by: Frank G   2003-10-5 4:33:38 PM  

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