With al-Qaeda being linked to three devastating attacks in Turkey and Saudi Arabia in the last two weeks, the group appears to be leaving a new signature as an increasingly decentralized and unpredictable terrorist network that appears harder to fight. Experts and diplomats said the recent resurgence of al-Qaeda violence also showed that Osama bin Laden's 14-year-old terrorist fraternity was as lethal as ever, despite the U.S.-led war on terrorism. The organization essentially is reinventing itself to compensate for losses in its ranks, they said.
| The fact that we're inflicting damage on them and causing their reorganization is a good sign, not a bad one. The Feds said last year that there are just 200 hardcore al-Qaeda. That figure doesn't include the cannon fodder, of course, or even all the middle managers, but just the "base" — al-Qaeda. The organization from the beginning has represented an alliance of gun-totin' organizations, with Binny's mob as a high command, coordinating and financing things. It's the high command we've been going after, but the component parts didn't give up their autonomy, and in fact the number of component parts has been growing because "al-Qaeda" represents the big time of terrorism at the moment. But "the base" itself has been transforming itself in an effort as self-preservation, with the Fath e-Islam group forming to run Afghanistan. The Karachi mob, when it was run by Ramzi bin al-Shibh, seems to have been autonomous, and the tools it used were the locals — Harkatul Mujaheddin al-Alaami, Lashkar e-Jhangvi, and various free-lance Jaish e-Mohammad groups. And then there's Ansar al-Islam and the Iran mob... |
At the same time, U.S. intelligence officials said, the United States has diverted more than half the personnel and technology that was targeted on al-Qaeda to the war in Iraq. Bin Laden is believed to have escaped a dragnet in Afghanistan and remains free and in charge, but small cells in at least 50 countries seem to operate independently, striking when conditions suit their purposes and using locals as bombers, experts say. It's unclear how much direction they receive from al-Qaeda's surviving top leaders, such as Saif al-Adel, believed to be in Iran, and bin Laden's second in command, Ayman al-Zawahiri.
| Also reported to be in Iran. Mansoor Ijaz says he has that from "an unimpeachable source," and that both Ayman and Binny are masquerading as ayatollahs, complete with Iranian-style turbans and trimmed beards. I have my doubts about the reliability of that — it seems like suicide on the part of the ayatollahs. But the evidence seems pretty firm that Saif and Saad are in Iran at least... |
"As the entity decentralizes, you're going to get a lot more wildcat operations," said Brian Jenkins of the Rand Corp., a policy research group in Washington.
| And a lot more subcontracting, as we saw in Istanbul. But the "Qaeda" presence in Yemen seems to be mostly the Aden-Abyan Islamic Army, with an allied Qaeda element (the Hutat Group). In Europe it's al-Tawhid and various north African sympathizers. In Turkey they used the Great Eastern Raiders. In Chechnya they're riding Maskhadov's indigenous mob. And in Southeast Asia they're riding Jemaah Islamiyah. So what's new, other than the clarification? |
Recent attacks underscore al-Qaeda's willingness to strike in Muslim countries, spreading new waves of apprehension in Turkey and in Saudi Arabia, where security forces are pressing a border-to-border crackdown that has crushed dozens of cells and resulted in more than 600 arrests. Experts believe, however, that at least 300 hard-core supporters and more than 1,500 sympathizers remain in the kingdom. "I fully suspect that... the terrorists who are here are planning additional attacks," said a Western diplomat in Riyadh who spoke on condition of anonymity. The U.S. Embassy in Riyadh remains open but is on a heightened state of alert, and the more than 30,000 Americans living in Saudi Arabia were urged to take extra precautions.
| Soddy Arabia's the home of al-Qaeda, where its ideological fathers and its financiers live. The country's got its own population of "Afghan Arabs," and if I remember correctly it's got its own "Army of Muhammad." |
Counterterror experts say al-Qaeda, a loose-knit network whose name means "the base," has mutated in reaction to a sustained U.S. assault. In both Saudi Arabia and Turkey, there are indications that local groups have adopted al-Qaeda's ideology and are trying to duplicate its methods without much external direction, said Daniel Benjamin, a former White House counterterrorism expert and coauthor of The Age of Sacred Terror. "We're seeing a different dynamic, sort of a second stage in the development of the radical jihadist" movement, he said.
| That's what I just said... |
Matthew Levitt, a former FBI counterterrorism analyst now at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said use of local groups had meant bombings were less meticulously planned and more often directed against last-minute targets of opportunity. Stopping such attacks "is all but impossible," he said.
| The smaller-scale the attack, the harder it is to stop. I could get my gun and go out this evening and pot somebody — where's the tip-off to anybody trying to stop me? |
There also have been hints of sloppiness. In May, a series of car bombings by an al-Qaeda-linked group in Casablanca, Morocco, killed 45, including 12 bombers, but did less damage than intended. And it is unclear whether those who struck the Riyadh compound this month knew it housed primarily Muslim Arabs.
| Or cared. But Qaeda as a group isn't particularly concerned about the eggs going into the omelette... |
One potential thread in some of the recent attacks is Abu Musab Zarqawi, a Jordanian-born operative who may now be in Iran and who is thought to have been behind the assassination last year in Jordan of U.S. diplomat Laurence Foley. Levitt said Zarqawi's operatives may have played a role in Casablanca and also have been active in Turkey. One of them, Abdelatif Mourafik, wanted in the Casablanca bombings, was recently arrested in Turkey.
| I didn't know about that. Makes sense, though. I've been calling Zarqawi the real, genuine Qaeda operations chief. |
Turkey is an ideal target for al-Qaeda: an overwhelmingly secular Muslim nation that is allied with the United States and Israel. Its size, location and Muslim population also make it an attractive place to operate. "You can hide without hiding," Levitt said.
| If the Turks are true to form, it's going to become a lot less comfortable for Bad Guys to hang out in the near future. |
Adel al-Jubeir, the foreign-affairs adviser to Crown Prince Abdullah, Saudi Arabia's de facto leader, describes al-Qaeda's worldwide operation as "a loose federation." The group may be in loose contact with the senior leadership through coded Internet messages or by courier. Cells are often no more than eight to 10 people, each with a specific assignment, such as driving or arranging financing.
| That's what we've been seeing... |
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