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| Iraq |
| This is Curious: Hezbollah shuns U.S. targets in Iraq |
| 2003-11-25 |
| EFL Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Shiite group, has established a significant presence in Iraq but is not taking part in attacks on U.S. forces inside the country, according to current and former U.S. officials and Arabs familiar with the organization. Iran is believed to be restraining Hezbollah from attacking U.S. troops, and that is prompting a debate within the Bush administration about Iran’s objectives. Hezbollah’s presence has become a source of concern as it is recognized by counterterrorist experts to have some of the most dangerous operatives in the world. Both American and Israeli intelligence have found evidence that Hezbollah operatives have established themselves in Iraq, according to current and former U.S. officials. Separately, Arabs in Lebanon and elsewhere who are familiar with the organization say Hezbollah has sent what they describe as a security team of up to 90 members to Iraq. The organization has steered clear of attacks on Americans, the U.S. officials and Arabs familiar with Hezbollah agree. U.S. intelligence officials said Hezbollah operatives were believed to have arrived in Iraq soon after the end of major combat operations last spring. The CIA has not seen a major influx of Hezbollah operatives since that time, officials added. "Hezbollah has moved to establish a presence inside Iraq, but it is not clear from the intelligence reports what their intent is," a U.S. official said. Any thoughts on this? |
| Posted by:Dragon Fly |
| #15 Could they be setting themselves up simular to how Hmas is burried in the Palestinian community? I would think that funds for their outreach programs would dry up if Syria and/or Iran is destabilized. |
| Posted by: Super Hose 2003-11-25 8:50:39 PM |
| #14 I think its fairly obvious what Hezbollah is doing in Iraq. Training the 'recruits' how to fight and doubling as sleeper cells. |
| Posted by: Charles 2003-11-25 6:43:47 PM |
| #13 They view the US as willing to take losses and stay as long as it takes. The europeans are not seen to be as committed, and Iran would like to separate us from our allies. The appropriate response would be to better integrate our C&C with the european forces, and hit back with particular aggressiveness when they are struck. |
| Posted by: flash91 2003-11-25 6:28:50 PM |
| #12 One base in the Kurdish north, rumor has it a big "listening post" has already been built there. Keep a eye on Iran and Syria from there as well as defend Turkey from Kurdish incursions (and visa versa). Also the big airbase down south as a replacement for the Saudi bases. Cover Iran, the Gulf States, and Saudi from there. |
| Posted by: Steve 2003-11-25 2:37:13 PM |
| #11 Just waiting for us to leave. I don't see our guys leaving for decades. At minimum, I see two divisions in Iraq, but out in the desert, just like in Afghanistan, where it's a lot more difficult to use IED's and mines against us. The reason we're taking casualties is because we're hanging around cities - no clear fields of fire out there. City combat isn't inherently tough - when you're taking down entire buildings around the defenders, as we did during the major combat phase. When you're tiptoeing around the civilian inhabitants, as we're doing now, we fail to catch the perps and in many cases, take casualties. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2003-11-25 12:23:06 PM |
| #10 Just waiting for us to leave. They're hoping that we leave Iraq sooner rather than later and in worse shape than I believe we will. Then they can move in and gain influence. They are going to find that by the time we leave Iraqis will have no patience for their jihad mentality and Iraq will be well on it's way to prosperity. |
| Posted by: Damn_Proud_American 2003-11-25 11:59:58 AM |
| #9 Lebanese terrorist groups are not all that effective. The sniping, land mines, IED's, etc. caused a few dozen Israeli KIA annually, while Israeli forces were in South Lebanon. What really hurt the Israelis was the impression the Palestinians obtained from its withdrawal - that Israel would also withdraw from the West Bank and Gaza if the Palestinians could inflict a few dozen casualties annually on Israel. In a way, withdrawing from South Lebanon gave comfort to Palestinian terrorists in the same way that the US withdrawal from Somalia after 19 KIA gave comfort to al Qaeda. (Unfortunately, Republican opposition to the completion of the Somalia mission was complicit in conveying the impression of American weakness). |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2003-11-25 11:35:38 AM |
| #8 I would suspect that we haven't attacked either Iran or Syria because they aren't actively backing foreign terrorist groups against us. That will change if either country takes that route. Note that even if they're actively trying to prevent people from coming over the border, people will still get through. The weak links are the border guards, who can be bribed, or may be sympathetic to the cause the terrrorists represent. That Iran, for one, does not have complete control over its borders is illustrated by frequent reports of drug-related gun-battles involving dozens of men when the Taliban were in power. Drugs are readily available in Iran, despite drug importation and trafficking being capital offenses. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2003-11-25 11:27:57 AM |
| #7 If you're Shi'a, and the "volunteers" jumping up and down screaming "pick me! pick me!" are a mix of Shi'a & Sunni -- who are you going to pick? |
| Posted by: snellenr 2003-11-25 10:35:55 AM |
| #6 1. Irans hopes for control in Iraq are premised on support from the Shia community. The Shia community wants peace, and largely accepts the US presence. Even Al-sadr has made positive noises lately. For Iran or Hezbollah to take violent action against the US now would be to alienate the Iraqi Shia, and endanger Al-Sadrs position. 2. If they see the US cutting and running due to Baathist attacks, its to their advantage to wait and come in then, 3. They want very much to avoid sanctions over their nuke program - why give the US more rationale to present to the more sane Euros (IE the Brits) 4. Theyre divided and vulnerable interally - an incautious policy could be taken advantage of by internal dissidents 5. Theyve been cautious with the US whenever the US looked scary. IE over Afghanistan, etc. 6. Some rumors that Hezbollah is trying to do some kind of larger strategic deal with Israel - with the prisoner swap being the first step. |
| Posted by: liberalhawk 2003-11-25 9:50:59 AM |
| #5 Whack'em |
| Posted by: Raptor 2003-11-25 9:46:20 AM |
| #4 They don't want us to have a casus belli before their nukes are finished. |
| Posted by: Robert Crawford 2003-11-25 9:34:42 AM |
| #3 Getting their boys in place in preparation for the handover? |
| Posted by: BH 2003-11-25 9:32:22 AM |
| #2 Why risk getting shot up by M16s, M60s, M1A2s, and AH-64s when there are so many helpless soft targets around? |
| Posted by: Dar 2003-11-25 9:27:41 AM |
| #1 I 'spect they're taking notes. |
| Posted by: John 2003-11-25 9:08:51 AM |