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| Terror Networks | |
| Al-Qaeda’s up to no good | |
| 2003-11-28 | |
| A top counterterrorism official says al-Qaeda operatives dropped plans this year for several small attacks in the USA to focus on plotting a "more spectacular" assault comparable to the Sept. 11 attacks. Probably fall-out from Khalid Sheikh Mohammed’s arrest. The U.S. counterterrorism official, who has access to all intelligence on the terrorist group, told USA TODAY this week that officials have no specific evidence to indicate how or when al-Qaeda might try to launch a massive strike on U.S. soil. But, the official said, interviews with al-Qaeda detainees, intercepts of communications from suspected operatives and other sources have yielded evidence that Osama bin Laden’s network still has a command structure and a determination to launch an attack that might rival the suicide hijackings. We know that the guy sent over here to do just that was Adnan El Shukrijumah and that the last time anybody saw him up in Maine, he was supposed in the company of a middle management type named Jdey. I don’t exactly like the fact that there’s been a BOLO on this guy since March and yet he’s just managed to melt into the background - there’s no way in hell he could do that without help from other people here. "It’s clear that al-Qaeda wants to strike here" and that it continues to seek opportunities for "a catastrophic attack," said the official, who asked not to be identified. Recent intelligence reports indicate that al-Qaeda remains fascinated by the idea of using aircraft as missiles, despite the additional security at U.S. airports since the 9/11 attacks. U.S. analysts still say explosives typically used in more limited assaults, including vehicle bombs in suicide attacks, remain al-Qaeda’s most likely weapon here. But intelligence reports suggest that some of the network’s operatives think that an attack using chemical or biological weapons could be a way to top the 9/11 attacks, the official said.
Especially since, partisan politics aside, there’s still a good chunk of Iraqi WMDs that was reported by UNMOVIC in 1998 and remains completely unaccounted for one way or another. There was a report in the Washington Post in December 2002 that Sammy slipped al-Qaeda some VX and God help us all if these folks have that, as they’ve exhibited the capacity for long-term planning for mass casualty attacks and may well do so again in the future. The latest intelligence on al-Qaeda’s possible intentions comes at a time of heightened tension about terrorism here and around the world. A series of deadly bombings of synagogues and British interests in Turkey has led some U.S. analysts to suggest al-Qaeda is starting a new wave of attacks. The FBI and the Department of Homeland Security told law enforcement agencies last week to be particularly mindful of security around cargo jets and chemical plants. U.S. officials, however, have not said they plan to raise the nation’s color-coded threat level. It is at code yellow (meaning there is an "elevated" risk of an attack), the midpoint on a five-level scale. It isn’t clear whether more aggressive efforts by U.S. agents during the past two years — including their increased authority to do wiretaps and other types of surveillance — contributed to al-Qaeda’s apparent shift in strategy here this year. My guess would be yes. It also is unclear who is directing al-Qaeda’s strategy. Saif al-Adel seems to be the main driver these days and Zarqawi’s the pivot guy. Both are in Iran, which makes stopping them problematic until a few of the Black Hats roll. Bin Laden is said to be hiding along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. And analysts suspect it is difficult for him to plot strategy while being hunted. Though one recent report has placed him in Iran as well in his capacity as an honorary Black Hat ... | |
| Posted by:Dan Darling |
| #3 Al Q, in order to carry out a successful mass attack on the US, needs a plan, the materiel, the manpower, positioning, coordination, funding, and secure communications. They are having difficulty getting all the components together in the US now. The longer that they cannot pull off a show, the less their credibility is. I think that their show in Saudi was a critical mistake, because this will jeopordize their funding sources. The govt is going to turn on itself and its citizens, so even with massive Saudi f--kups, the organization will be disrupted. Turkey booms will cause alot of public soul searching and floundering, but it will not provide jihad support. If we, meaning the US and European intelligence agencies can remain vigilant and communicate, despite what some asshat leaders do, we will frustrate Al Q and the tide will slowly but steadily turn against them. There will be no instant victory but it will be gradual as the ME political and social landscape changes. |
| Posted by: Alaska Paul 2003-11-28 2:10:55 PM |
| #2 I'm not sure it indicates disruption - though that would be terrific - but as I've said before, it certainly indicates rather glaring stupidity. I agree wholeheartedly with you conclusion: shitting on your own living room floor is a very very stupid move. There is no way it can generate more support, such as intimidating potential funding, than it will alienate. Let's hope they continue until they burn themselves out of cannon fodder, funding, and state sponsorship. Let's hear it for gross stupidity! ;-> |
| Posted by: .com 2003-11-28 7:59:46 AM |
| #1 I believe that Al Qaeda is severely disrupted. My proof is that they are starting to shit in their own pool to make continueing attacks against their own Muslims and against less belligerant Muslim governments. If Al Qaeda has any strategic weapons they are likely to use them quickly in a mass attack: They must know someone will shot his mouth off about the operation and it will be then impossible to execute long range plans. I am not saying Al Qaeda is finished, but I am saying they not only have shifted their strategy, they have shifted to a strategy that is likely to result in their own destruction. |
| Posted by: badanov 2003-11-28 7:43:28 AM |