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| East Asia |
| Chinese military ready for "necessary" casualties over Taiwan |
| 2003-12-03 |
| Senior Chinese military officers warned Taiwan it was staring into the abyss of war and the mainland was ready for "necessary" casualties if the island pursued its independence drive. The comments in the state-run Outlook Weekly magazine, carried by the Xinhua news agency and major websites, followed Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian’s plan to hold a referendum on the island’s future. Two People’s Liberation Army (PLA) officers quoted by the magazine said Chen would be held responsible if war breaks out and said separatists "will be treated the same way war criminals are dealt with elsewhere in the world". "Chen has touched on the mainland’s bottomline on the Taiwan question," said Luo Yuan, a senior colonel with the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences. Always amusing to hear a communist talk about the "bottomline." "He is actually playing with fire. It is very dangerous — and immoral as well — for Chen and his predecessor Lee Teng-hui to take the restraints and tolerance of the mainland as signs of weakness. "Just ’cause we can’t git ya now don’t mean we can’t ever git yas!" "If they refuse to come to their senses and continue to use referenda as an excuse to seek Taiwan independence, they will push Taiwan compatriots into the abyss of war," he said. Premier Wen Jiabao has indicated China was willing to "pay any price" to deter Taiwan independence, and these prices were outlined by Major General Peng Guangqian, also with the Academy. They include boycotts of the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games, decreasing foreign investment, worsening foreign relations, economic recession, and "necessary" casualties of the PLA, he said in the magazine. Okay, now I think he’s serious, he’s talking about taking casualties. "All these prices are bearable when compared with the Taiwan issue, which is of the highest interest for the Chinese nation," he said. "If Taiwan separatists want to gamble on it (by pushing for independence), they will pay a heavy price and be defeated with shame. We will definitely intervene." He’s encroaching on Kimmie’s "sea of fire" trademark. Chen, from the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party, said at the weekend that China’s deployment of 496 ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan had prompted him to push for a vote to safeguard the country’s sovereignty. Attaboy, Chen, poke that caged tiger with that stick. |
| Posted by:Steve White |
| #23 AJ, I find nothing in Mr. Den Beste's analysis that is wanting. Taiwan would certainly be attacked with missiles, which would kill a bunch of civilians. The PRC has no ability to invade the island. Taiwan can certainly remain free for as long as it's people are willing to make sacrifices to reamin so. We would probably have to suply them and buy everything they produce. Eventually, Taiwan will have to have some type of relationship with the big land mass across the straits. With US support, Taiwan can pick the time and terms. |
| Posted by: Super Hose 2003-12-3 9:21:28 PM |
| #22 Steven Den Beste just posted an interesting analysis of the China / Taiwan situation here. |
| Posted by: A Jackson 2003-12-3 8:26:16 PM |
| #21 I tend to agree with Yosemite Sam: "This is the same rhetoric China has been spewing for the last 50 years. Move along people, nothing new to see here." They're practicing psyops here. Trying to make Taiwan back down without them firing a shot. Sun Tzu was Chinese, after all, and it's not only us US 'warmongers' who study his wisdom. |
| Posted by: Kathy K 2003-12-3 7:56:51 PM |
| #20 "Unleash Chiang Kai-shek!" __________________________oh for the good 'ol days of the 1950's sez borgboy... |
| Posted by: borgboy 2003-12-3 6:30:53 PM |
| #19 .com and Carl, I think that the real question is whether the Taiwanese want to be free of the mainland. If they actually want to be free and are not just posturing for better terms, then how much are they willing to sacrifice for freedom. Every country pays a blood price for freedom. The US paid a price for ours but some countries pays a higher price. The price that Cambodia paid is chilling to me. I admire the price that freedom seekering Czechs paid even in defeat. The Chinese people paid a terrible price in Tienimen Square, as well. George Bush has committed the US to support the Taiwanese if they choose to be free from the Mainland. That is different from a commitment to defend Taiwan from the PRC. I think that is as nuanced as GW gets. |
| Posted by: Super Hose 2003-12-3 5:32:07 PM |
| #18 Carl - Sorry, your point is well taken regards their subversion, bro - I didn't mean to leave myself unclear, either. You read me right too - I am just incredibly frustrated with how everybody seems to naturally kowtow to these cretins. Grrrrr. What I hope for, of course, is that they change their spots before the morons go after Taiwan - that the whole mantle of communism is finally thrown off and, I hope, bloodily ground under the heels of the normal Chinese citizen. The leadership seems to me both as ruthless and as naive as the Black Hats. Remarkable how isolation from the average citizen can lead to this bizarre condition, no? As long as we make our intentions crystal clear, and don't do the alligator crawl, we should be able to hold them at bay. That means electing leaders with gumption, of course. |
| Posted by: .com 2003-12-3 4:17:19 PM |
| #17 Matt, the PLA did fairly well against the Nationalist forces and not so badly against a badly positioned US force in Korea. In Korea they displayed a willingness to exchange infantry for firepower and pushed the 8th Army back to the 38th parallel. But without a land border the willingness to exchange at 15-1 counts for nothing. |
| Posted by: Shipman 2003-12-3 3:36:11 PM |
| #16 The ChiComs can absorb Taiwan by close economic ties and sucking them in. It will take years, but they can do it. If they get too capitalistic, they may change radically too, but I would not count on it. It seems to me that the Taiwan issue is something they are beating a drum about to create an issue that could unite the country. The ChiComs are doing a long range plan with weapons modernization, providing front companies with stevedoring services at each end of the panama canal, cozying up to Castro and Chavez, as well as playing games with Kimmie and the NORKS. I would not underestimate them and their capabilities to modernize, and I would not underestimate their capabilities to do something really stupid. They see us as preoccupied with the ME, and see this as a time of weakness for the US to be exploited. We must be vigilant! |
| Posted by: Alaska Paul 2003-12-3 2:42:57 PM |
| #15 .com, since it wasn't clear in my comment #7, I totally agree with your frustrated cynicism. And we (America and like-minded nations) should stand by Taiwan for all the right reasons. That said, I do not expect to see any classic invasion response (actually, I would prefer that since it would militarily be the easiest to confront and defeat). I get more worried about the various hellacious things they could do to Taiwan short of an all-out invasion, knowing that there is little spine left in the rest of the world to condemn China for doing those very things -- the ROW will rather pressure Taiwan to stop rocking the boat. Sad. |
| Posted by: Carl in N.H. 2003-12-3 1:17:29 PM |
| #14 When was the last time China won a major war? Or any war? When was the last time China successfully invaded another country? When did China ever attempt a sea born invasion? Has China's navy ever engaged in any kind on combat? Has the air force? Has even the army? (And running around like stooges in the late 1930's against the Japanese doesn't count.) The fact is that they haven't. Aside from the Boxer Rebellion and loosing to a dozen Japanese army divisions, China has never fought a modern-day war (and by modern I mean a conflict using guns and not swords). Like Egypt, China is an international looser when it comes to armed conlict. Oh sure, it can pound its chest and make threats, but there is NO Chinese soldier who knows how to fight a war because no one there has never been IN a war. At least not one that they won on their own. Perhaps they should keep this stellar history in mind when they go up against a determined Taiwan that is backed up by the greatest military force in history. Kind of puts that whole 4000 year old civilization thing into perspective, huh? |
| Posted by: Matt D 2003-12-3 12:48:33 PM |
| #13 What I'd like to know is precisely what number is it that they consider "necessary"? How many of their countrymen are they willing to sacrifice? Thousands? Millions? |
| Posted by: Bomb-a-rama 2003-12-3 12:44:09 PM |
| #12 Sure, they have millions of troops they are willing to sacrifice in the name of 'International World Peace through Socialism'. But how do they plan to get those troops to Taiwan? Do they have enough heavy lift capacity cargo planes? More than Taiwan (not to mention the USNavy) can shoot down? Do they have more cargo ships than Taiwan (not to mention the USNavy) can sink in the straits? The only thing the chicoms can do is nuke them. And then they'd get nuked right back. So what are they really doing? Trying to pile on while we're thinking about terrorists, to make us back down. This is just like Little Kimmie in NK, just without the hype. They try to bully and bluff, but they don't have the logistics to pull it off without sacrificing themselves, and don't think peking wouldn't be ground zero if they went nuclear on Taiwan. |
| Posted by: millionmanarmy 2003-12-3 12:36:05 PM |
| #11 This is the same rhetoric China has been spewing for the last 50 years. Move along people, nothing new to see here. |
| Posted by: Yosemite Sam 2003-12-3 12:15:47 PM |
| #10 Carl does have a point. Asymetrical warfare eh. Car bombings, assassinations. But two can play at that game. |
| Posted by: Lucky 2003-12-3 12:12:32 PM |
| #9 You I wouldn’t discount the rhetoric coming out of the P.R.C. They are falling by the wayside on the world scene and to have Taiwan declare independence might be the final straw. During the Korean war and the border disputes with Russia/Vietnam the PLA was more that willing to take heavy casualties. These would be casualty rates greater that 50%. They could take Taiwan by force of arms but they would pay a VERY heavy price. While the Chicoms have mass, Taiwan has technology. Even with the Clinton upgrades the mainland could never maintain air or sea superiority (loss of both would doom any invasion). They ONLY hope for the Chicoms is to take the island quickly and hope the U.N. would intervene before George sends in the troops. Make no mistake about that, he WILL send in the troops. The Chicoms do not want to face our Air Force and Navy not even on their best day. So when Bush is re-elected next year Taiwan will hold it’s referendum and that will be that. |
| Posted by: Cyber Sarge (VRWC CA Chapter) 2003-12-3 12:11:11 PM |
| #8 "world pressure" You actually mean collusion of the greedy tards who think, hope, pray that the mass markets of China will someday be able to afford their products - per yesterday's post and commentary - will lead to Taiwan doing... What, exactly? Back down from their declaration of independence? I can, indeed, picture the low-burn destabilization efforts. Is that all it will take? Subvert them and they eventually just cave in and rejoin the communists? Is it pointless to defend Taiwan because, sooner or later, the ever-lasting Politburo of Commie Mainland will prevail? Sigh. |
| Posted by: .com 2003-12-3 11:50:45 AM |
| #7 China is not going to try a classic seaborne invasion of Taiwan -- they're not stupid. I predict high levels of harassment of businesses and Taiwanese nationals in the mainland (and whatever else you can think of that comes under "Economic Blackmail"), long range missiles thrown near or even at Taiwan, and perhaps domestic sabotage/assassinations by Chinese agents in Taiwan. Sooner or later world pressure will force Taiwan to back down. |
| Posted by: Carl in N.H. 2003-12-3 11:33:37 AM |
| #6 "Plenty more where those grunts came from." |
| Posted by: mojo 2003-12-3 11:04:17 AM |
| #5 The only way the PRC could totally "take" Taiwan would also result in the total destruction of the Taiwanese economy. At the same time, Taiwan has the capability to inflict considerable, lasting damage to the economy of the PRC. Since the PRC is teetering on the brink of disaster at the moment, any move toward Taiwan would be suicide for both nations. Suicide is not a valid means to maintain a government. |
| Posted by: Old Patriot 2003-12-3 11:03:27 AM |
| #4 When poking a caged tiger with a stick, it is best to use a stick that is .44 calibre... |
| Posted by: snellenr 2003-12-3 10:36:38 AM |
| #3 lame story |
| Posted by: Yosemite Sam 2003-12-3 10:24:31 AM |
| #2 They want Taiwan, let them try. We'll sink the troop ships before they even get to Taiwan. |
| Posted by: Charles 2003-12-3 10:08:01 AM |
| #1 Getting all frothy at the mouth before the Olympics might make |
| Posted by: .com 2003-12-3 10:05:40 AM |