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India-Pakistan
Assassination ’windfall’ for Musharraf
2003-12-19
From Asia Times, so keep salt at the handy, althbough personally, I believe this isn’t far off the mark.
Something went horribly wrong when, moments after the general’s motorcade passed over a bridge, a powerful bomb exploded - initially estimated to contain 550 pounds of explosives - and badly damaged the structure of the bridge, but did not harm anyone. Immediately after the blast, the government’s Press Information Department sprang into action, running from one television channel to the other and from one newspaper office to the other trying to convince the staff that the "assassination attempt" was even bigger news than the arrest of Saddam Hussein, so the story should not be downplayed.
Poor timing, that. If Perv had it set up to worry us Merkins or to justify an internal crackdown, he picked the wrong day. If the jihadis are actually responsible, they picked the wrong day for their coup.
And in the days since the incident, Inter-Services Public Relations and Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) have been only too willing to call journalists to their offices for briefings, during which they are urged to portray Pakistan as a country "under siege by extremists" and told that a "new monster of extremism" is about to rise. Not everyone, though, is as quick to make such judgments. A source assigned to a "high strategic position" spoke to Asia Times Online on condition of anonymity, and painted a rather different picture. He confirmed that a number of attempts had already been made on Musharraf’s life as a result of his post-September 11 policies in which he abandoned support of the Taliban and threw in Pakistan’s lot with the United States in its "war on terrorism" and the hunt for Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda fugitives in Pakistan. Indeed, said the source, at least five attempts have been made on Musharraf’s life since he came to power in a bloodless coup in 1999, of which three came from within the army. All of the attempts were ill-planned and the suspects quickly rounded up.
Have any actually been hanged? I'd be much more of a believer if they were made taller...
For his trips between the capital Islamabad and nearby Rawalpindi, where army headquarters and Musharraf’s military residence are housed, the general uses only the ring road, which bypasses busier urban areas. Before the president’s motorcade sets out, security personnel are deployed along the whole route to check for any suspicious persons or vehicles, and then all people and vehicles are cleared from the route. And bridges receive special security attention - using the latest equipment - as they are obvious places for bombs to be planted. As a further security measure, Musharraf employs several identical convoys, which speed off at slightly different times. Musharraf himself only decides at the last minute in which one he will ride. Helicopters are also used to keep a close eye on the route. Based on this information, the security source who spoke to Asia Times Online is adamant that the latest "assassination" attempt was in fact carefully stage-managed by Musharraf’s close staff - and at his instigation.
What an original idea. Who'da thunk that?
As the year 2003 ran its course, the United States became more convinced that as far as Pakistan was concerned, al-Qaeda no longer remained a threat of any consequence as its major lines of communication had been destroyed, and only a few operators were left, and they were on the run anyway. As a result, the US changed its priorities, but unlike in the past, Musharraf was dictated to rather than consulted, and Pakistan’s strategic interests in Afghanistan and India, as well as Musharraf’s political interests at home, were largely ignored. Musharraf was warned in no uncertain terms of the ISI’s activities in the Pakistani tribal belt, where it was active in aiding the regrouping of the Taliban for their guerrilla war in Afghanistan. A US diplomat in Pakistan also met with Musharraf and on behalf of Washington produced video footage and precise locations of where the ISI was giving Afghans military training to wage jihad against the Afghan administration of Hamid Karzai and US-led troops in that country. As a result of this, an extensive joint US-Pakistan operation was conducted in the tribal areas, but it ended with no significant success as it appeared that the suspects were tipped off in advance by the Pakistan side.
Mahmud the Weasel strikes again
At the same time, Musharraf was given evidence of the ISI’s activities in the Kashmir region, as a result of which he was forced to close down forward sections of the army in Pakistan-administered Kashmir that had been lending support to militants for cross-border raids into Indian Kashmir. And a few weeks ago, Musharraf was given another warning - with complete details provided - of ISI-Taliban (or pro-resistance) links, and asked to order another operation in the tribal areas. This pressure from the US is compounded by opposition from the hardline Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), an alliance of six religious parties that won unprecedented representation in parliament in elections last year. In its latest action, the MMA launched "Remove Musharraf" protest marches on Thursday against Musharraf’s U-turn on Kashmir, the army’s intervention in the tribal areas, and his wearing the two caps of president and chief of army staff.

Other developments are also of concern to Musharraf:
About a week before his death earlier this month, MMA president Maulana Shah Ahmed Noorani attended a luncheon meeting at the US vice-consul’s residence in Karachi, at which some other diplomats from Islamabad were also present. Noorani apparently assured that the MMA did not have any international agenda, and that its campaign in the country was in the cause of democracy. US diplomats in turn stated that the US wanted to see more democracy in Pakistan.

US intelligence officials were initially given a free hand in Pakistan to track down al-Qaeda members. But now they are directly involved with domestic politicians, and last week US Federal Bureau of Investigation agents and their Pakistani counterparts apprehended a former top official of Pakistan’s atomic installation at Kahota Research Laboratories. They were apparently interrogated over possible involvement in selling nuclear material to another country.

Recently, Musharraf was given a report on a German, Italian, French, British and US intelligence "cartel" that has been established to protect the strategic interests of the respective countries in Afghanistan as their troops are heavily threatened by Taliban attacks. Diplomats of these countries apparently visited places like Quetta on the border area and spoke to people there. The move is seen in Islamabad as nothing short of espionage.
Given these developments, the Asia Times Online source argues that it was fair time to pass on the message to Washington that extremists are rampant once again in the country because of interfering US policies. Musharraf "narrowly escaped" this attempt, but perhaps he will not be so lucky the next
Posted by:Paul Moloney

#4  Pakistan is the land of a million conspiracy theories. IMHO, it would be wise to keep Occam's razor handy when reading articles about Pakistan. I think the bomb was for real. Al-Qaeda has called openly for Musharraf's death (per the Al-Zawahiri tape.) Ditto for Pakistani jihadi groups.

As for the ISI and the Taliban, I don't think the ISI controlled the Taliban, as the conspiracy-theorist view implies. The ISI tried (but failed badly) to control them. They failed because they wasn't really enough of an overlap between their interests and world-views.
1. The ISI's officers come from Pakistan's mostly-liberal professional classes.
2. The ISI is not a career service. Officers are transferred in from military units, serve 3 years, then go back to military, never to return. This "term limit" rule tends to limit abuses of power. The ISI's known abuses of power mostly occurred during or shortly after the period (during the anti-Soviet guerilla war) when the "term limit" rule was suspended.
3. I believe the ISI was trying to use the Taliban to control Afghanistan, and this policy was a disastrous and embarrassing failure. The units that were involved were largely dismantled.
Posted by: Anonymous   2003-12-19 4:49:54 PM  

#3  "a German, Italian, French, British and US intelligence "cartel" that has been established to protect the strategic interests of the respective countries in Afghanistan as their troops are heavily threatened by Taliban attacks. Diplomats of these countries apparently visited places like Quetta on the border area and spoke to people there. The move is seen in Islamabad as nothing short of espionage"

Intell guys with thin diplo cover go somewhere and speak to people - this is seen as "nothing short of espionage" Ethel, my pills!
Posted by: liberalhawk   2003-12-19 1:40:08 PM  

#2  US intelligence officials were initially given a free hand in Pakistan to track down al-Qaeda members. But now they are directly involved with domestic politicians
The ISI and the Taliban are hand in glove. Anything we do in Pakland will anger one faction or another. Yes, we're "directly involved with domestic politicians", because they are the links between the Pak government and al Qaeda and the Taliban. Musharraf is caught between a rock and a hard place - he absolutely has to work with the United States, or his country will become the next Iraq. At the same time, working with the United States places him at odds with a significant portion of his military, the ISI, and a major part of the Islamic clerical heierarchy. The old boy definitely "lives in interesting times". The odds aren't good he'll survive the next ten years.
Posted by: Old Patriot   2003-12-19 1:07:27 PM  

#1  Bah. It's either ignore these posts, or keep "Time to thin the crop, Perv" on the clipboard at all times.
Posted by: Glenn (not Reynolds)   2003-12-19 9:43:21 AM  

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